Brij Bhardwaj
As time for elections for five State Assemblies comes closer, it is becoming clear that Opposition parties are a divided house and are spending more time in hurting each other instead of fighting Bhartiya Janata Party. A race has started to occupy space as main voice of Opposition. Regional parties like Trinamool Congress and Aam Aadmi Party who were confined to respective regions have started spreading areas of influence.
For instance Trinamool, after its victory in West Bengal is not only looking at eastern states of Assam and Tripura but also has eyes on Goa. Aam Aadmi Party, which was confined to Delhi and Punjab is now moving into Gujarat, Uttrakhand, Goa and U.P. Shiv Sena is also finding new openings outside Maharashtra. In majority of the cases the regional parties are poaching leaders from Congress Party, which will only weaken Opposition instead of hurting BJP.
It is true that BJP has problems as inflation and unemployment has created some unrest and growth story has suffered because of Covid and long period of lockdowns. Rising prices of petroleum products and edible oil has also added to the problem. The advantage with BJP is that it has become the only party with an all-India presence. It also has most efficient poll machinery and cadre provided by Rashtriya Swayam Sevak Sangh.
In last seven years it has spread to areas where it had no presence earlier. It has not only strong presence in North in Hindi belt, but also in East, North East and showing signs of growth in South. The result is loss in one region is made up by better showing in other areas. For instance in recent by-elections it performed poorly in Himachal and West Bengal but did very well in Madhya Pradesh and Assam. The largest opposition party Congress has presence in many states, but it is finding it difficult to contain dissent which results in desertion of its leaders to other parties.
Yet another advantage of BJP is minority vote particularly Muslims are getting divided. The result is their representation in Parliament as well as State Assemblies is on decline. Rise of Muslim leaders like Owaisi from Hyderabad is not helping their cause as any polarisation on communal lines reduces the capacity of minority community to elect members. As such, there may be some setbacks in selected areas for BJP but overall capacity to win majority in most of the States and at national level remains intact.
Among opposition parties, including Congress, capacity to win over hundred seats to head a coalition remains limited. Congress which got 55 seats in last poll, in the best case scenario cannot hope to touch three figure mark unless it is able to revive itself in U.P. As for other opposition parties like Trinamool and DMK, numbers will be enough to become part of coalition but not a driving force. A single party has to win 100 to 150 seats to lead a coalition which seems unlikely at present.
This to some extent explains confidence of BJP and its leadership. Prime Minister Narendra Modi remains most popular leader. Yogi Adityanath has become number two with responsibility to win prize state of U.P. His agenda Ram temple, strong Hindutava will not be easy to match. Priyanka Gandhi is drawing crowd. Her pitch for women is good strategy, but will it revive fortunes of Congress is a question whose answer is yet to be found. She has no cadre or party machine to turn her appeal into votes.
Elections in India are influenced by many factors and what may work in U.P may not work in Punjab or Haryana. There is one certainty, attempts will be made in next few months to keep prices of petroleum products in check and find ways to end farmers agitation. Next few months will witness lot of political activity as Indian democracy is strong and kicking.
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