Shiban Khabri
Never has it been seen in run up to the previous general elections as in respect of the prospective 2014 elections that the list of the contenders for the post of the Prime Minister should keep on getting lengthier. Is our brand of democracy becoming more vibrant and increasingly robust as none can prevent any one or all the Hon’ble members of the Parliament from aspiring to be the Prime Minister of India? Perhaps making the issue look easier, various circles, individual and institutional, are on an unsolicited hunt for a performer politician whether in the UPA2 or in the opposition, who could deliver and get the nation out of the economic gloom and uncertainties of various hues affecting our polity and the quality of governance.
A new entrant in the fray, as per a leading international weekly “The Economist,” is likely to be the Congress candidate P.Chidambaram and not the Congress General Secretary Rahul Gandhi. He is reported to be finding himself not fully geared up to take the thorny challenge as yet. The paper is of the opinion that Chidambaram’s way has become smoother as his “fiercest rival” Pranab Mukherjee stood elevated to the country’s top post. New additions continue to take place to the general view held so far in the political circles that it was all between Modi and Rahul. Nitish Kumar the Bihar CM, too was thought to be a suitable person as he like Modi, had shown enviable results of good governance and had emerged a good performer. The other person through the route of an elusive third front to make it to the coveted post, has been SP Chief Mulayam Singh Yadav. Even in the absence of his heading an arrangement of a combination minus Congress and BJP in the next elections, he is optimistic of “circumstances compelling him to become the Prime Minister like I never wanted to be UP Chief Minister but had to do it compelled by political circumstances”. He otherwise has been shouldering the responsibility of “supporting the UPA dispensations at the centre only to keep the communal forces out”, not any quid pro quo inter-se the Congress led government and he and his party. His veiled claim has got overtly buttressed by the political blessings from geriatric Congress leader N.D.Tiwari , “You take care of the nation (as PM) while Akhilesh takes care of Uttar Pradesh”. The Congress veteran has indicated a lot in this statement and may not be brushed aside as a mere political expletive. The Economist, however, has based its report on the premise of Chidambaram having a growth oriented outlook which according to it can give the nation much needed push.
Has Congress secretly decided to award Chidambaram with the offer of projecting him as the PM for the next elections for his considered services in authoring the much publicized populist cash transfer scheme (CTS) through which and other similar populist measures and concessions though purely against the economic considerations, the Congress expects to reap good political harvest and see it getting redeemed and voted to power again? Coming to the present state of affairs of the country’s economic condition, instead of showing any improvement, economic growth has slipped down if the available results of this quarter ending September are to be believed. It is exactly in July itself when Chidambaram took over the finance portfolio from Pranab Mukherjee and many had hopes in heaps from him to initiate corrective measures but excepting going in for 51% foreign investment in multi brand retail as part of the reformist agenda, that also in infancy in implementation, nothing tangible has taken place. Lowering of interest rates by the banks quite marginally and reducing CRR too by a few points, have been conventional tools to help industries and manufacturing sector but of late Reserve Bank has felt satisfied about the ” prevailing liquidity position being comfortable” and no further review in these two parameters is considered for the time being. In spite of near normal monsoon in the country, the agricultural sector has shown a growth rate of mere 1.2% as against 2.9% last quarter. This sector needs close monitoring as any claim of the government that direct foreign investment in multi brand retail could cure all the ills of the agricultural sector cannot hold water. We say and boast of the fact that we were spending larger funds on subsidies in agricultural sector and perhaps Walmarts, MacDonalds and Pepsis and others could invest in refrigeration and infrastructural support by which the lot of the marginal and poor farmer could get bettered and pressure on subsidies eased, it could only be far from the reality. That speaks for why in a developed country like the USA, agricultural sector is given huge subsidies every year. In fact, we are still to do much more in this most vital sector of the economy. Likewise, in manufacturing and power sectors, the growth has been negative as compared to the previous quarter. Chidambaram has conceded that the growth rate of our GDP has been far less than our expectations. If a growth rate of even 5.5% this fiscal is achieved, that would be still a matter to be contented with if Deputy Chairman of the Planning Commission Montek Singh Ahluwalia is to be believed saying that “this is far less than the expectations. It could be said that the slow down in the economy is at its lowest”.
A person of growth oriented outlook as Chidambaram is known , his miracles and turnaround in the quarter ending Sept has shown only negative results for which strangely enough he blames deficient rains in some parts of the country and “poor showing by the manufacturing sector”. The growth rate bottoming out is treated with hopes of somehow getting up perhaps by interplay by invisible forces. Varied shades of nuances would agree that the future Prime Minister has the gigantic assignment of bringing economy on the rails and cover under empty rhetoric and “compulsions of any coalition politics” or “Dharma” for non performance may just be not acceptable to people. Continued neglect of the soul of Indian economy, the agriculture and cottage and small scale industries may retard overall performance of the economy and push up further inflation to hit the Aam Aadmi, the commoner, the middle class earner, the petty retailer, the wage earner and others to spread all round gloom. The cottage industries, the small manufacturing units are to be saved from the invasion of Chinese goods flooding Indian markets. We are not bothered who in the fray is more secular, less left and so called communal, all we in India want development and good growth of the economy so that prices stabilize and inflation is contained. Any one doing it and being capable of ensuring it could be our future Prime Minister.
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