Us-Iran agreement lessons for India

By Dr. D K Giri

The US-Iran peace deal has prompted analysts in India to laud Iran and nudge New Delhi to learn a few lessons from Teheran. Several suggestions are proffered to Ministry of External Affairs: how to stand up to a bully like Donald Trump? How to negotiate with greater skill? How not to bend under pressure and so on. I refuse to take any hint from Teheran as we are at an opposite geopolitical location of Iran. I say this by discarding the sentimental slogan of Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam, or the unviable strategy of ‘multi-alignment in a multipolar world’.

Iran taught the world how to survive as America’s enemy. That’s not our exam. India’s exam is how to thrive as America’s friend without dying of Kissinger’s fatal embrace. The answer is, be Japan, not Pakistan; align interests, not flags. Kissinger’s famous formulation was, “to be an enemy of US is dangerous, and to be a friend is fatal.” Was he right? Was there any substance to it or was the statement an eyebrow-raiser?

Let us read deeply into what he meant: it was 1950s context. US had a habit of using small allies for Cold War operations, then dumping them. Vietnam, Kurds, Pakistan post-2001. It’s fatal when US embraces you, fights wars through you, leaves when bored. But does it apply to India 2026? It’s partly yes, mostly no; fatal risk for small friends, not for the biggest country and world’s largest democracy. US drags you into its wars. India is too big to be ordered about. No US president can order Indian boots to Taiwan. We would say no.

The US deserts you when interests shift, partly yes. If US-China cut G2 deal in 2030, where’s India? That’s a real risk. But that too is unlikely as US treats China as strategic rival which seeks to dislodge US from numero uno position in world ranking of powers. US demands ideological conformity. No. US needs India vs China more than it needs us to be liberal. Trump doesn’t care about our democracy score. US hollows your industry. This risk is real. If we just buy F-35s and don’t co-produce, we become Saudi Arabia with IITs. So, Kissinger’s warning really was, “Don’t be dependent”. Not that “Don’t be a friend”.

The choice for us is Democracy vs Despots. US as a democracy has 1000 entry points --Congress, states, universities, companies, Indian Americans. But Russia is simply a reflection of Putin’s mood and China of Xi’s notebook. In US, you can lose in White House but win in Texas.

However, analysing Kissinger’s advice may be obsolete for our discussion alas India has already moved to US Camp. The question is, how should it locate itself?

On a reality check, we are in but not signed up. Call it Camp, Quad, strategic convergence- names don’t matter, facts do. if we look at the domains for India + US, Defence $20B+ deals, 2018-26: P-8I, MH-60R, MQ-9B, GE-414 engine MoUs, BECA, COMCASA, LEMOA signed. With Russia, we have S-400, K-203. But no new big-ticket since 2022. We face spares crisis.

Tech: ICET, semiconductor MoUs, AI partnership, 300K Indian STEM students in US. With Russia, nil as it’s not in tech game.

On China, joint patrols, Malabar, Taiwan Strait statements. Russia is China’s junior partner. It can’t help on LAC. Economy: US is number one export market $120B-FDI, GCCs, Apple/Foxconn shift. With Russia trade is $65B but 90% is discounted oil. No future growth. So yes, we are in US tent. But Delhi can’t say it because: (a). Russia: 60% of Army/AF hardware still Soviet origin. Need spares, oil; (b). domestic politics: “Non-alignment” is civilizational comfort food; (c). China: Declaring sides makes us the frontline state. Why volunteer for that?

How to “Locate” Ourselves: The Japan Model, Not UK Poodle Model. Do not become treaty ally, no NATO, no US bases. That triggers China + costs us autonomy. Do become “capable partner”. Japan template: Security: US sells best kit, shares intel, but Japan owns its defence. No US veto on foreign policy. Economy: US market access, but Japan protects its firms. TPP, not dependency. Politics: Disagree in public when needed. Japan opposed Iraq 2003, still closest Asian ally.

For India that means three moves: One, declare “Strategic Autonomy with Alignment”: Say it straight: We’ll work with all, but our security and prosperity are tied to democracies. Autonomy is choosing your alignment, not avoiding all. Two, finish industrial decoupling from Russia: AMCA, Tejas Mk2, Project-75I subs — every new platform must be Western/Indian. Let Russia fade to spares + oil vendor. 10-year timeline. Three, give the US a big win they can sell at home: Semiconductor fab with Intel/Micron + Indian OSAT, or civil nuclear SMRs with Westinghouse. Trump 2.0 loves “jobs”. Give him a ribbon cutting.

Third: Is India seen as rival in Indo-Pacific? The dilution of Quad could be due to Trump flip-flop or Delhi’s inept handling of the platform. The short answer is 70% Delhi, 30% Trump.

Why the US gets nervous! One, trade: $45B deficit. Trump sees India as “tariff king”. He doesn’t distinguish friend vs rival, only “who’s ripping us off”. Two, Russian Oil: We bought $200B of discounted crude 2022-26. US thinks: “You’re funding Putin’s war while wanting our tech.” Three, Mixed Signals: We do Quad, then host Lavrov. We do ICET, then stay silent on Ukraine UN votes. The US thinks: “Are you ally or free-rider?”

Trump’s flip-flop is real, but predictable. He is transactional. Today he will call Modi “tremendous”, tomorrow tariff Harley-Davidson. That’s not anti-India. That’s America First.

What can Delhi do to assuage, without groveling: One, cut a visible trade deal: Take zero tariffs on 10 iconic US items — Harley, bourbon, almonds etc. Its cost to India, $500M, PR value in Mar-a-Lago, $10B. Two, explain Russia in US Terms, not “time-tested friend”. Say “legacy dependence. We’re cutting it to 10% a year. Help us replace it.” Make US part of solution. Three, be loudly Pro-US in Indo-Pacific, Not anti-China statements, Pro-rule-of-law statements. Freedom of navigation, UNCLOS. When we rescue Houthi-hit ships, put Pentagon + Delhi flags in same photo. Four, stop seeking parity: US won’t treat India = UK. We are not treaty ally. Accept “major defence partner” and milk it. Demanding NATO-level love makes us look insecure.

Bottom line: We’re not rivals. We are “high-maintenance partner”; make ourselves low-maintenance, high-value. How to avoid “fatal” embrace part. Three, rules for India: One, No Expeditionary Wars, cooperate in IOR, not in SCS. “Our frontline is LAC, not Taiwan Strait”. Two, co-produce, do not just buy, GE-414, say, 80% made in India or no deal. Micron: design here, not just package. Fatal equals dependency and antidote to that is interdependence.

Three, keep Russia/France/Israel Lines Warm: Not for love. For leverage. If US thinks we have no options, Kissinger comes true. If Lockheed knows Dassault is waiting, we get better terms.

How can we advise India to secure alliance with US; Shift from Russia, give up ambition of containing China. One, Secure US Alliance: Yes. 100%. But call it “Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Plus”. Accept US number one in defence, tech, education, capital. Keep a timeline: 2035. Method: ICET 2.0, 500K student exchanges, 50% defence kit from US/partners. Two, shift from Russia: Yes, but glide path, not crash. Energy: Keep oil till 2030, but no new long-term contracts. Defence: No new Russian platforms. Use them for spares till 2040, then sunset. Diplomacy: Keep BRICS, SCO seats, attend, don’t lead. Use them to tell Global South: “We are not US poodle”; we are their bridge.

Three, give up ambition of containing China: Reframe it. We cannot “contain” China. It is $19T, we are $5T. Thucydides Trap is real, but we’re not Athens. But we must “Balance + Compete +

Cooperate”. Balance: In IOR, with Quad. Make Chinese Navy think twice west of Malacca. Compete: For supply chains, for Global South leadership, for tech standards. Cooperate: Climate, pandemic, trade where possible. LAC quiet, both win.

So, advice to India: Do not try to be the US’s Gurkha against China. Be the US’s Germany against USSR --big, democratic, rich, armed, and pursuing own interest.”---INFA

(Copyright, India News & Feature Alliance)

New Delhi

18 June 2026