Kalyani Shankar
With the hanging of the Parliament attack mastermind Afzal Guru, the speculation is rife once again about the early Lok Sabha polls. Will they take place in 2013 or 2014 is the question that is doing the rounds in the political circles. The opposition holds that it was a political decision keeping in mind about the electoral gains.
There are only two ways a mid term poll could be held. The first is the UPA-II losing majority, if some of the supporting allies pull out, reducing the Government to a minority. The Government is already on a razor thin majority depending for oxygen from the two regional parties – the SP and the BSP. If one or both decide to pull out its support, then the fall of the Government is inevitable. The second is that the Congress decides to advance the polls.
There are some like the Samajwadi Party, Bahujana Samaj Party, the Trinamool Congress and the DMK that expect a 2013 September polls. Mulayam Singh (SP), Karunanidhi (DMK), Mamata Banerjee (TMC), Mayawati (BSP) and Jayalalitha (AIADMK) have gone public asking their cadres to get ready. Why September? Perhaps they know something we do not know or perhaps Mulayam Singh and Maya are planning to withdraw their support to the UPA. Perhaps it suits these leaders politically to face early polls.
After the massive win in the last year’s UP polls, the honeymoon period of the SP is getting over sooner than expected. Mulayam knows that the momentum cannot be sustained too long. It is the same thing for the Trinamool Congress. After creating history in the state by throwing out the communists after 34 year rule, Trinamool chief Mamata Banerjee is losing her hard earned goodwill fast by her maverick ways but the people will give her some more time. Mamata is in a hurry to get more seats and become a national player after the next Lok Sabha polls. As for the AIADMK chief Jayalalitha, she too would not mind early polls and use the confusion and power struggle in the DMK leader Karunanidhi’s family for her benefit. For all other parties, the 2014 elections would be better.
Why should the Congress go for a mid term poll? How will it benefit if polls are advanced? Logically speaking, the Congress has always used the stability plank and would like to complete its full term. Who knows what will happen after the next Lok Sabha polls? The Grand Old Party knows the art of survival better than any other party.
The opposition argues that the Congress would opt for a mid term after the budget session for three reasons. One is that the longer the government remains, the harder for the party to come back. The recent helicopter scam is the latest headache for the Government. Secondly, the longer the BJP prime ministerial aspirant Narendra Modi gets, the better chance for him to establish himself nationally in comparison to Rahul Gandhi. Thirdly, the Congress is not expected to do well in some of the big states where elections are due later in the year, like Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chattisgarh and Delhi, and, therefore, the polls may be advanced to prevent a negative atmosphere.
The mid-term poll rumours are also gaining ground within the party. A section in the Congress would like to go for the mid-term poll. The Congress leadership, too, has told its workers to get ready for polls. After Rahul Gandhi has been appointed as Vice President, the party is trying to pull up its socks. The government has also started in full swing the much-delayed economic reforms, and more is expected to come in the coming months. The recent hanging of Afzal Guru is seen as a political decision to show that it is not a soft Government as alleged by the BJP-led opposition. The Congress is keen on getting the food security bill passed in the budget session as also some other long pending bills like the land acquisition bill and Lokpal Bill.
But at the same time, there is another section in the party, which argues that things are not looking good for the Congress. First of all, the UPA is bidding for a third term under the Congress leadership with a truncated number of allies. Even in the best of circumstances, it is an uphill task to do a hat-trick and more so in a coalition era.
Secondly and more importantly, the public anger after the Delhi gang rape reflects the pent up anger against the government for its non -governance. If things don’t improve one can see more such public anger as the slightest provocation could trigger off such incidents.
Thirdly, the economic situation is not very encouraging as the growth rate which was at nine per cent earlier has been pegged down to a mere five percent this year. The Prime Minister thinks that the only flaw is the inflation .The spiraling of the prices is yet another headache for the government as they are not coming under control. The common man is affected most. The inflation and the food inflation too are not coming under control. The fiscal deficit has reached an alarming proportion. Foreign exchange reserves are declining. Rupee is falling .The monsoon is a worry. In such a situation how could the Congress expect a good showing?
Both sides have weighty arguments. The budget will give an indication of what is to come. Both sides are weighing the options and a clear picture can emerge only after the budget is presented. If the Finance minister presents a populist budget, then it is clear that the Congress is keeping the options open. If the supporting allies pull out then the mid term poll will be inevitable. (IPA)
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