Brij Bhardwaj
This week, two national-level electoral alliances were announced as contenders for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. Each alliance carries important implications for the electorate. On one side, the BJP-dominated NDA has picked up allies in different states to fortify its share of votes. Conversely, a number of regional parties have joined hands with the Congress in an effort to offer a challenge to the BJP-led alliance.
The two alliances also possess unequal electoral successes. For instance, the BJP alone boasts over 300 Lok Sabha seats from the 201 elections, while the Congress, the largest party in the new electoral alliance, was confined to 50 seats. Conversely, many of the BJP’s allies are confined to single-digit numbers in terms of Lok Sabha seats, and some even lack Lok Sabha membership altogether. However, the Congress-led alliance is comprised of a vast array of regional parties, each significantly powerful in their respective states, but with limited influence outside of them.
The BJP draws its strength from the Hindi Heartland, dominating the state of UP and its 80 Lok Sabha seats. It has an additionally strong presence in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, and Delhi, topped up by its stranglehold on the North East. Having won seats across the country, it enjoys an all-India presence. Comparatively, the Congress has only a single seat in UP and has drawn a blank in many states.
Following the Bharat Joro Yatra and an electoral victory in Karnataka, the Congress received a welcome boost. However, it will need to perform exceptionally well in Hindi-speaking states like UP, Madhya Pradesh, and Rajasthan in order to pose a significant challenge to the BJP. This is a tall order, given the advantages that the BJP enjoys in terms of its access to a formidable electoral machine and its resources, as well as the personal popularity of Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
Furthermore, the Congress-led alliance is plagued by contradictions, given the fact that many of its members are contesting elections against each other in their respective states. The Congress itself is fighting the Left parties in Kerala, and the Aam Admi Party in Punjab and Delhi. In West Bengal, it is allied with the Left in an electoral contest against the Trinamool Congress. The alliance will be forced to resolve these tensions if it is to effectively challenge the NDA on the national stage.
The NDA will go to the polls having ruled India with limited success for a decade. Its biggest plus point has been its food delivery systems which resulted from schemes involving foodgrain distribution, as well as its provisions of loans for housing, water supply schemes, and gas cylinder distribution schemes. It has also built infrastructure with relative success and effectiveness.
The opposition, on the other hand, will likely contest elections on the issues of unemployment, income disparities, and the neglect of minorities. The BJP will have a powerful appeal on the basis of Hindutva, and the opening of the Ram Temple in Ayodhya and the Uniform Civil Code will be additional weapons in their campaigns. The opposition’s adoption of the moniker INDIA has significant resonance, and its slogan ‘Bharat jitega’ carries significant appeal. However, the challenge facing them is formidable.
In terms of voteshare, the two alliances are close. However, the BJP’s votes have been effectively concentrated in about 450 seats, and the opposition’s share is spread out. To make a reasonable impact at the polls, the opposition alliance requires that the Congress win at least 100 seats, doubling its performance from 2019. On the other hand, if the BJP’s success is reduced and its share of 300 seats falls to even 250, it will remain comfortable in its position.
There are a number of fence-sitters who have avoided both alliances, including the BSP’s Mayavati and the leaders of a number of regional parties who are in power in Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, and Odisha. These parties are likely to win a number of seats, and become significant players at the time of the elections. As such, the NDA already has a head start in the upcoming electoral race.
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