Monsoon Session could be a game changer

Brij Bhardwaj

newsagency12@gmail.com

The Monsoon Session of Parliament is likely to be a stormy one and may also witness changes that could alter the political map of India. During the upcoming session, the Government is expected to introduce the Women's Reservation Bill and the Delimitation Bill, along with a proposal to increase the strength of the Lok Sabha from 543 to 850 seats. This will require the support of a two-thirds majority in both the Lok Sabha and the Rajya Sabha.

The required number in the Lok Sabha is 360, while the NDA currently has around 290 members. However, its strength has increased substantially following splits in the TMC and the Uddhav Thackeray faction of the Shiv Sena, bringing it closer to the required two-thirds majority. According to reports, around 20 members of the TMC and six members of the Shiv Sena have decided to support the NDA. In addition, talks are reportedly underway to bring the DMK on board. The DMK is said to be unhappy with the Congress for supporting the TVK and has distanced itself from the INDIA alliance.

If the DMK joins the NDA, the Government may have little difficulty in getting the Women's Reservation Bill and the Delimitation Bill passed in both Houses of Parliament, something it could not achieve during the earlier special session of Parliament. If these two Bills become law, they will significantly alter the political landscape. They will not only increase the strength of the Lok Sabha but may also benefit the BJP, as Hindi-speaking states such as Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Bihar are expected to gain additional seats, where the BJP enjoys considerable political support.

According to reports, the Delimitation Bill may include provisions to assure the southern states that their representation will not be reduced under the new arrangement. This could help bring the DMK on board and also address the concerns of Mr. Naidu of the TDP, an NDA ally. Once these Bills are passed, the delimitation process is expected to begin based on the latest Census. Such an exercise may also benefit the BJP, as was the case in Assam. It is expected that in Uttar Pradesh, some constituencies dominated by minority communities may be reorganised.

An effort to create a favourable public atmosphere and to accuse Opposition parties of having stalled the Women's Reservation Bill is likely to be undertaken by the BJP and the RSS. A beginning was made when Delhi Chief Minister Rekha Gupta led a procession in support of the Women's Reservation Bill while accusing the Opposition of blocking it. Similar campaigns are likely to be undertaken in other states.

This is expected to serve as a counter to the current agitation by the Congress Party and the Cockroach Janata Party, which are seeking the resignation of the Education Minister over the alleged paper leaks, the alleged land grab in Madhya Pradesh, and the alleged misappropriation of offerings at the Ram Temple in Ayodhya. As a result, the coming months may witness fireworks not only in Parliament but also on the streets, where rival groups may clash.

If the NDA succeeds in securing Parliament's approval for these two important legislations, it may be encouraged to move ahead with its agenda of "One Nation, One Election." There are also indications that the groundwork is being prepared for the introduction of a single identity card to establish Indian nationality. The recent declaration that no single document-including a passport, voter ID card or Aadhaar card-is sufficient proof of nationality effectively shifts the burden of proving nationality onto the citizen. This is also likely to become an issue on which the ruling party and the Opposition disagree. As such, India may be heading towards stormy times, with sharper political divisions and increasing confrontation between opposing sides.