Lessons from Bankipur

Prof. M. K. Bhat

 By- election in Bankipur constituency may not have any role in Bihar government formation yet it has created history by electing Prashant Kishore founder of Jan Suraaj party (a newly formed party) to Bihar Legislative assembly in the heartland of BJP. This assembly seat had fallen vacant due to the resignation of Nitin Nabin present president of BJP. In 2025 he had retained the seat with a big margin of 50,000 votes, contrary to this, Jan Suraaj party contested 238 seats in Bihar assembly elections and registered a vote share of 3.44 % in the same election.  The party got fewer votes than NOTA in 68 assembly constituencies. Before understanding what made people to shift their loyalty from BJP to Jan Suraaj party, it becomes important to have an idea about Bankipur.

Bankipur is hundred percent urban legislative seat under Patna Saheb parliament constituency with a literacy rate of 87.8 %. Patna district literacy rate is 70.68% with Ravi Shanker Prasad of BJP as parliament member. The legislative assembly seat of Bankipur was with BJP since 1995. The seat was earlier represented by Nitin Nabin’s father Nabin Kishore Prasad Sinha. Prashant Kishore of Jan Suraaj Party got 64151 votes i.e. 49.23 % - a jump of 44.31 percent for the party from last assembly elections and BJP’S Neeraj Kumar Sinha got 44827 votes i.e. 34. 40 % - a decline of 28.26%. Prashant Kishore won the seat by over 19000 votes. BJP count of votes dropped by one third. The total booths in this assembly constituency were 422, BJP lost on 400 booths i.e. 95% of the booths were lost by BJP.

The demographic distribution in this constituency is such that no single community can make any candidate successful. This verdict of people carries many lessons for all the political parties across the political spectrum of the country. BJP president Nitin Nabin has assured of introspection for the end of BJP dominance in this constituency. If BJP ignores addressing the issues the things may snowball into a big volcano for them and if the opposition parties fail to understand the hint, they may have to sit on opposition benches for too long. It becomes imperative to understand what helped Prashant Kishore to garner such a massive public support and can it be a roadmap for opposition parties to get power at center. Is it an indication of some undercurrent in people or merely over confidence of BJP?

Let us evaluate its message for BJP

Deviation from ideology

BJP has been a strong opponent of caste politics but its UGC regulations have disappointed its core vote bank. The general category comprised 53% of BJP votes in 2024. The party all along highlighted how other political parties divided the majority to make their electoral success but its university grants commission’s (UGC) promotion of equity in higher education institutions regulation on Jan 13, 2026 did otherwise. It replaced 2012 guidelines to mandate strict anti -discrimination and equity measures across all Indian higher education institutions covering religion, caste, race, gender and disability. The notification although was stayed by honorable Supreme Court of India, yet caste discrimination in it was evident. Chief Justice Surya Kant headed bench held that “the 2026 regulations have sweeping consequences which will divide the society” The UGC notification ghost appeared in Bankipur elections and people felt it as a threat to future generation. The general category felt it discriminatory throughout the country and the reserved category wanted its application at the earliest.

Over confidence:

In democracy the real power rests with people and any move to take them for granted has an adverse impact on the success of any candidate.  BJP with a long standing in this constituency had taken its success as final. The narration that any cat or dog on BJP ticket will get elected from Bankipur costed BJP heavily. Every word needs to be evaluated before making it public. Prashant Kishore of Jan Suraaj party in his electoral meetings accused Member Parliament Ravi Shanker Prasad of saying that even cats and dogs on BJP ticket will win elections from Bankipur. It was taken as a sign of arrogance by the voters of the constituency. It is important to take every voter seriously. People today know that the ideological allegiance is least cared by politicians when their personal interests are at stake.

Indecisiveness:

Election has to be fought under well thought strategy. The change of candidate after declaring one, only leads to confusion and heart burning among the workers. A day after filing nomination papers BJP replaced its candidate Abhishek Kumar with Neeraj Kumar Sinha as its nominee. The chief minister Samrat Choudhary had addressed public meeting in support of Abhishek – a grass roots BJP worker from last 26 years. This makes the competitor more powerful in the eyes of public.

Bharat Tiwari case:

There was massive public outrage along with some ruling party members on the   killing of Bharat Tiwari after his surrender to police video became viral. The encounter was declared fake by many. Tiwari was a social activist of repute; five policemen was suspended. LGP questioned the legitimacy of the encounter publicly.

NEET Paper leak:

The paper leak agitation in Delhi added fuel to the fire. The cause of agitation was genuine so it caught the attention of everybody in the country. NDA government accepted all the conditions of the agitators but too late, it left an impression on the mind of every person and Bankipur could not be away from its impact.

Lessons for opposition

Minimum common program:

The message for the opposition is that if they want to be in power, they may have to prove themselves as an effective alternative to government. The victim card will yield very little for them. The opposition has to realise that people want a solution to their problems and raising unnecessary issues and blaming ED, election commission or other central agencies is of no use. In Bankipur election Prashant Kishore stressed on development issues in Bihar rather than on caste or religion. People want to see their welfare rather than getting swayed by rhetorics. The way forward for opposition is to formulate a common minimum program and showcase the same as an alternative to the present setup. They need to accommodate each other to stop the division of votes.  In Bankipur this time Tejasvi Yadav kept a low profile to give chance to Prashant Kishore to break the custodian ship of upper - class Hindu votes with BJP. Opposition parties can learn a lesson from the election Campaign of Prashant Kishore. He stressed on development of Bihar which touched the nerve of voters by prioritizing systemic governance reforms, stopping mass out-migration for labour, and creating local employment and upgrading government school standards.

Out of Box thinking

Opposition may have to resort to out of box thinking if they want to be in power. Its divide and rule under the guise of secularism will fetch nothing nor its soft Hindutva can get any remark from the voters. It is time of introspection for the opposition. It needs to concentrate on developing alternatives rather than creating road blocks. Its attempt to overpower BJP by adopting Hinduism during elections is well exposed in front of public.

The election at Bankipur has proved that Indian voter is getting mature and values his vote. It is a good thing for Indian democracy to survive.

(The author is Professor Emeritus (M.A.I.T) Guru Gobind Singh Indraprastha University, Delhi)