Demographic Change Panel in J&K: The thorny road ahead

Ranbir Singh Pathania

rspathaniamla@gmail.com

The much-talked-of high-level panel on Demographic Changes in Jammu & Kashmir would have to tread a thorny road in J & K. Headed by a retired Supreme Court judge and comprising former bureaucrats and security/strategic experts, the panel's mandate is to scientifically assess/analyze "unnatural demographic changes"-ranging from illegal cross-border immigration and irregular population shifts taking place under the nose of local administration.

Its task goes far beyond routine data collection. Positioned at the intersection of India's most sensitive frontiers, Jammu & Kashmir Jammu & Kashmir demands an out-of-the-box approach. It carries a decades-long legacy of cross-border terrorism alongside fragile social and ecological ecosystems. Assessing its demographic landscape is not merely an exercise in electoral arithmetic; it is a strategic national security imperative. Rather an actionable diplomatic and political long-term plan needs to be forged out.

To deliver an actionable roadmap, the committee must navigate across six critical priorities:

Security Screening Vs Legitimate Mobility

India's constitutional guarantees protect internal labor mobility, and policy must avoid security-labeling legitimate Indian citizens moving for work. However, unregulated foreign settlements in sensitive border zones pose a fundamentally different challenge, creating long-term vulnerabilities that are exceptionally difficult to reverse once established. Let every such migration be viewed with an Argus eye. And sifting be done very intelligibly and rationally on case to case basis with basic focus on safety and security.

A Balanced Protocol for Undocumented Foreigners

Key Actionable Recommendations

# Priority Concerns Key Deliverables

1 Comprehensive Demographic Audit Conduct a scientifically verified, district- and tehsil-level audit cross-referencing Census, land, electoral, and civil registration data to detect anomalies. Let all such com munities be identified and documented at the first instance.

2 Impregnating border areas To address this, security agencies and local authorities must institute mandatory bio metric verification and land registration drives for all frontier residents. Enforcing strict land-use regulations within designated buffer zones will prevent illegal construc tion, while integrated monitoring by local police, military forces, and village defense groups ensures full visibility over permanent settlements and population turnover.

3 Facilitation Mapping Identify and dismantle the institutional supply chain driving document forgery, illegal land encroachments, and clandestine financial channels. Serious target-oriented approach.

4 Border Intelligence Grid Form a dedicated, joint intelligence mechanism targeting narco-terror and border crimes across the Jammu-Samba-Kathua and Punjab riverine axes. Studying and offer ing solutions to settlements proliferating on all such areas.

5 Kashmiri Pandit Rehabilitation Formally integrate the secure and sustainable rehabilitation of displaced Kashmiri Pandits into the core matrix of regional security planning.

Official estimates suggest over 13,700 documented foreign nationals-primarily Rohingya and Bangladeshi citizens-reside in J&K. While India is not a signatory to the 1951 Refugee Convention, principle of 'non-refoulement' is recognized by UNHCR as a customary international-law principle. The approach should avoid both open-ended settlement and unlawful summary expulsion. Instead, it requires a clear protocol: registration, biometric identification where authorized by law, security screening, judicial oversight of detention and repatriation too, wherever necessary. Moreso, we can locate these communities to non-sensitive pockets with lesser chances of intermingling and interacting with locals.

Neutralizing the Document-Forging Ecosystem

The primary threat of illegal immigration often lies in the "manufacture of legality." When an undocumented foreign national fraudulently obtains an Indian identity document-such as an Aadhaar card, voter ID, or ration card-immigration control becomes an institutional vulnerability. Enforcement must look beyond individual migrants to target and prosecute the corrupt intermediaries, officials, and networks facilitating these fraudulent documents. We need to go at the zero-ground in order to have a ringside overview of the matter. Let me quote as to one so-called 'Bangladeshi colony' in Vijaypur on flanks of Jammu-Pathankot national highway has thousands of illegally infiltrated 'immigrants.'

Dismantling Narco-Terror Networks Without Profiling

Border regions like Jammu, Samba, and Kathua face an escalating threat from drone-assisted narco-terror networks. While law enforcement must ruthlessly dismantle these supply chains, individual criminal activity should never be used to stigmatize entire local or tribal communities. Precision, intelligence-led enforcement-rather than broad communal profiling-is essential to maintaining social cohesion while securing sensitive riverine corridors. Communities living on banks of these sensitive river-beds pose a real challenge to the powers-that-be. Out of 689 encroachers on banks of river Tawi within limits of Jammu Municipal Corporation, 688 belong to a particular community and religion.

Unregulated and unidentified settlements

Unregulated and unidentified settlements within three kilometres of the Line of Control (LoC) and International Border (IB) in J & K as well neighboring states pose severe operational and national security threats. Unmapped permanent structures create blind spots for military surveillance, disrupt tactical movement, and increase civilian vulnerability during cross-border shelling. Furthermore, unverified demographic shifts raise risks of cross-border infiltration, logistics support for hostile actors, and intelligence leaks near frontline posts.

Reversing Historical Displacement

No demographic assessment of Jammu & Kashmir can be complete without prioritizing the return of displaced Kashmiri Pandits. The ultimate benchmark of any regional demographic policy is ensuring that displaced communities can return to their ancestral homeland with physical security, restored property rights, cultural dignity, and economic self-reliance. This is the very essence and primary edifice of studying any patterns on demographic change in J & K. I remember a dear friend, politician and a religious head of Shia community while on record to say, "After Pandits, Sikhs, it was the turn of Shias to be turned out of the Valley".

The rise of slogans associated with radical political and religious mobilisation during that period also warrants examination within the broader historical context of displacement, insecurity and demographic change in the Valley

Conclusion

India must remain a welcoming civilization without becoming an unregulated territory. It must uphold the rule of law without compromising its territorial integrity.

The state owes protection to citizens, dignity to indigenous communities, and security to every resident. Yet sovereignty dictates knowing who enters the country, where they settle, and whether hostile or criminal networks enable their presence. The answer to demographic anxiety is neither denial nor hysteria-it is verifiable data, robust law, continuous vigilance, and firm justice.

(The columnist is member of Legislative Assembly of J&K)