Climate Change in J&K is no longer a future threat

Rajat Vohra and Kanwal Singh

From sudden cloudbursts and flash floods to prolonged summers, from frequent forest fires to declining snowfall, the effects of climate change are now clearly visible across Jammu and Kashmir. What was once considered a future challenge has become a present-day reality. The Himalayan ecosystem is among the most fragile in the world, and the changes unfolding in the region demand immediate attention.

The Himalayas are often called the "Third Pole" because they contain the largest reserves of ice outside the Arctic and Antarctica. When this fragile ecosystem changes, the consequences extend far beyond Jammu and Kashmir, affecting water security, agriculture, biodiversity and the livelihoods of millions of people across South Asia.

The Melting Amarnath Shivling: A Wake-Up Call

The recent melting of the naturally formed ice Shivling inside the sacred Amarnath Cave was not merely surprising it was a wake-up call.

The Amarnath ice Shivling is a naturally occurring ice stalagmite formed when water from melting snow and glaciers seeps through the rocks above the cave and freezes layer by layer under sub-zero temperatures. Scientists have long maintained that its size and longevity depend on a combination of factors, including winter snowfall, the availability of meltwater, ambient temperature, humidity inside the cave and the cave's delicate microclimate. Over the years, there have been several instances of the Shivling melting prematurely in 2004, 2008, 2018, 2020, 2022, 2024 and again this year triggering debates among scientists and policymakers. Experts have pointed to rising temperatures, reduced snowfall, increased human activity around the shrine, and changing weather patterns as contributing factors, while emphasising that no single reason can fully explain the phenomenon. What is beyond dispute, however is that the Himalayan region is warming rapidly, making such fragile natural formations increasingly vulnerable to climatic and environmental changes.

Even as lakhs of devotees continue to undertake the pilgrimage with immense faith and devotion, we cannot afford to ignore the environmental realities confronting the region. Ignoring climate change is like the proverbial pigeon that closes its eyes after seeing a cat, believing the danger has disappeared. The threat remains, whether we acknowledge it or not. Rather than looking away, this is the time to understand the scientific and human factors driving these changes and take meaningful steps to protect the fragile Himalayan ecosystem.

Human Pressure, Greenhouse Gases, Deforestation and the Need for Sustainable Action

Climate change in Jammu and Kashmir is driven by both global and local factors. The concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere primarily carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide continues to increase global temperatures, with the Himalayas warming faster than many other regions. At the local level, growing anthropogenic pressure has further intensified environmental stress. Every year, lakhs of pilgrims and tourists visit ecologically sensitive destinations such as Amarnath, Gulmarg, Sonamarg and other high-altitude areas. While tourism remains vital for the region's economy, unmanaged footfall, increasing vehicular emissions, waste generation, and pressure on fragile ecosystems accelerate environmental degradation. Deforestation, unplanned construction, road widening without adequate environmental safeguards and the loss of natural vegetation further weaken the mountains' ability to regulate water, stabilise slopes, and absorb carbon dioxide. In another shocking revelation, J&K has lost nearly half of its lakes as per the performance audit report by the Comptroller and Auditor General of India (CAG). The audit revealed that out of 697 recorded natural lakes, 315 have completely vanished since 1967 and 203 have significantly shrunk.

Jammu and Kashmir is experiencing a concerning decline in its forest and tree cover. Between 2001 and 2023, the region lost approximately 4,190 hectares (82,830 kanals) of forest cover.

Reducing these pressures requires a balanced approach: enforcing scientific carrying-capacity assessments for ecologically sensitive destinations, mapping of lakes, promoting sustainable tourism, strengthening waste management systems, encouraging public transport and electric mobility wherever feasible, protecting forests through afforestation and strict action against illegal tree felling, Tree preservation act, restoring degraded ecosystems, and ensuring that all infrastructure projects adhere to rigorous environmental safeguards. Development and environmental conservation must go hand in hand.

Human Pressure on Fragile Mountains

Climate change in Jammu and Kashmir is being intensified by both global warming and increasing human pressure on the region's fragile mountain ecosystems. According to the J&K Economic Survey 2024-25, the Union Territory recorded an unprecedented 2.36 crore tourist visits in 2024, including over 5.11 lakh pilgrims who undertook the Amarnath Yatra. Tourism remains the backbone of the local economy, but such large footfall in ecologically sensitive areas also places immense pressure on glaciers, alpine meadows, forests, water sources, and waste management systems if not managed sustainably. Scientists have repeatedly cautioned that the Himalayas have a limited carrying capacity, and tourism beyond that limit can accelerate environmental degradation.

The solution does not lie in restricting tourism but in making it sustainable. Scientific carrying-capacity studies should guide the number of visitors allowed in ecologically sensitive areas. Waste management must be strengthened, single-use plastic should be strictly prohibited, and eco-friendly public transport should be encouraged wherever feasible. Infrastructure projects must undergo rigorous environmental assessments, while afforestation, restoration of degraded forests, protection of wetlands, rainwater harvesting and climate-resilient urban planning should become policy priorities. Development and environmental conservation are not competing goals; they must complement each other if Jammu and Kashmir's unique natural heritage is to be preserved for future generations.

Less Rainfall, More Flash Floods

Until a few years ago, the term cloudburst was heard only occasionally. Today, it has become a familiar part of every monsoon season. According to meteorological observations, several parts of Jammu and Kashmir have recorded rainfall deficits in recent years, although the extent has varied across districts. At the same time, incidents of cloudbursts, flash floods, and extreme weather events have become increasingly frequent.

Changing rainfall patterns have serious consequences for agriculture. Longer summers and shorter winters have altered flowering cycles, affecting apple orchards across Kashmir. Other crops, including walnuts, almonds, and saffron, are also experiencing the effects of shifting climatic conditions. Farmers are increasingly facing uncertainty regarding crop productivity and seasonal cycles.

The Jammu region, too, is witnessing prolonged heat, placing additional pressure on water resources, agriculture, and public health. Urban centres are grappling with waterlogging caused by intense short-duration rainfall, inadequate drainage systems, sewerage problems, and an increased risk of waterborne diseases. These are no longer isolated incidents but visible consequences of changing weather patterns.

Impact on Tourism

Tourism remains one of Jammu and Kashmir's most important economic sectors. While Jammu largely depends on religious tourism, Kashmir's economy is closely linked to snow-based and nature tourism.

Reduced and erratic snowfall has significantly affected destinations such as Gulmarg, shortening the skiing season and impacting businesses that depend on winter tourism. Visitors who once came for Kashmir's predictable winters and pleasant climate are increasingly experiencing unusual weather conditions.

Changing weather patterns have also affected religious tourism. Last year, the Shri Mata Vaishno Devi Yatra remained suspended for several days because of heavy rainfall and landslides, disrupting pilgrim movement and affecting the local economy.

Frequent landslides have also impacted the tourism potential of Jammu's hill destinations, including Patnitop, Bhadarwah, Sinthan Top, Basantgarh Valley, Bani-Basohli, and Pir Ki Gali. Districts such as Ramban, Samba, and Reasi also possess enormous tourism potential, but recurring climate-related disruptions continue to pose significant challenges.

Rather than ignoring these warning signs, we must recognise that the future of tourism in Jammu and Kashmir depends upon protecting the very environment that attracts visitors in the first place.

Conclusion

Development is essential, but it cannot come at the cost of ecological sustainability. Infrastructure expansion and economic growth must be planned in a manner that protects the fragile Himalayan environment rather than undermining it.

Strict action should be taken against illegal and environmentally unsound construction. Infrastructure projects must follow scientific environmental safeguards, while urban planning should prioritise resilience to extreme weather events. Afforestation, protection of existing forests, and the restoration of degraded ecosystems should become long-term priorities. Timely weather forecasting and effective dissemination of weather information can strengthen disaster preparedness and save lives. Farmers should be encouraged to adopt climate-resilient agricultural practices and crop diversification. Water harvesting, efficient resource management, and sustainable development must become integral to future planning.

Most importantly, every stakeholder, governments, institutions, businesses, tourists, pilgrims and citizens must recognise that addressing climate change is a shared responsibility.

In the end, be a smart pigeon. Close your eyes only to sleep, never to ignore an approaching threat.

(Rajat Vohra is a Senior Journalist at ZEE News. Kanwal Singh is a columnist and writer )