Challenging unnatural demography

Prof M K Bhat

drmkb1963@gmail.com

Unnatural demographic changes due to illegal immigration are a big cause of concern in north east states sharing porous international borders with Bangladesh. These states namely West Bengal, Assam, Meghalaya, Tripura, Mizoram and Jharkhand (via transit) have historically witnessed sustained, undocumented immigration. These illegal immigrants not only enjoy social welfare schemes of the government, undermine the local culture and share the resources but are also becoming a security threat to the country. They impair public services like PDS, healthcare, and schooling due to unaccounted population increases. Oversupply of labour depresses wages. They are no more confined to the border districts rather they have spread throughout the country and it has been the election agenda of BJP to deport illegal immigrants from the country.

Ever since BJP Government came into power in west Bengal, hordes of illegal immigrants, some even with ration card, Aadhar card and other documents have started to shift to their own country. As per certain reports nearly two to three hundred people leave every day, the total number is difficult to estimate because of their dispersion in various parts of the country. West Bengal government has clearly started to pursue detect, delete and deport policy. Holding centres have been set up in 23 districts besides fencing of borders is being undertaken at a fast speed. The home minister has also informed the illegal immigrants to leave on their own.

Prime Minister, Narendra Modi in his address to the nation on as 15th August 2025 from the ramparts of Red Fort hinted to unnatural demographic changes in the districts bordering Bangladesh. He had linked demographic shifts to illegal infiltration, border security and stress on local resources, especially in border and tribal regions. According to the Sample Registration system data, India's national total fertility rate(TFR) has declined to 2.0 (below the replacement level of 2.1). This means a generation is not producing enough children to replace itself, eventually leading to population stabilization and decline expected around 2060-2070. An analysis of the demographic situation of the county from 1951 census to 2011 census points to the fact that the population of Sikhs, Buddhists, Jains decreased by less than one percent, the Christian population remained stagnant and Hindu population decreased by 4.30 % while as Muslim population in the country increased from 9.8% to 14.20% in the concerned period. This growth is exorbitantly high in states bordering with Bangladesh. The historical data indicates that certain border districts have exhibited high growth rates ranging from 29% to over 40%. These statistical anomalies cannot be explained by natural birth rates alone.

In order to investigate the total estimation of illegal immigrants a high Level Committee on Demographic Changes (HLCDC) under the Ministry of Home Affairs was formulated on 26 May, 2026 to undertake scientific study of the nature, causes and consequences of unnatural demographic changes occurring across the country and to recommend appropriate policy, administrative and legal measures .The committee will be chaired by retired Supreme Court judge Justice Prakash Prabhakar Naolekar and will include the Census Commissioner, former UP Chief Secretary Durga Shanker Mishra, former BPR&D chief Balaji Srivastava, and economist Dr Shamika Ravi as members. The Joint Secretary (Foreigners-I), MHA, will serve as the Member Secretary. It will make easy to detect delete and deport of illegal immigrants in the country.

Those who feel the formation of such a committee as politically motivated for elections in the country are either unaware of the extent of this problem or purposely want to hide the truth. The Government has defined it as a positive development and at the same time certain opposition parties have termed it as a polarisation attempt. Certain opposition leaders have raised question on the process of deportation. It becomes imperative to analyse the significance and legality of the committee.

The matter of the fact is that the committee can help in accurately quantifying the scale of the issue for creating a legal, fair, and time-bound institutional mechanism for the identification, detention, and deportation of illegal immigrants. The previous regimes could not muster enough courage to address the issue of unnatural demographic changes for reasons better known to everybody. It is no secret that various governments have cultivated illegal immigration for their own political benefits otherwise they could not have got in the voter or Aadhar list.

It is the duty of Central Government to protect every state against external aggression and internal disturbance as per article 355 of the constitution. The Foreigners Act 1946 - now Immigration and Foreigners Act 2025 section 9, places the burden of proof heavily on the individuals to prove that they are an Indian citizen (rather than on the State) and empowers the government to identify, detain, and deport foreigners. The Citizenship Act, 1955 provides the statutory framework for the acquisition and termination of Indian citizenship. Section 6A was specifically inserted to operationalize the citizenship parameters defined in the Assam accord. Fifth and Sixth Schedules were designed to protect the autonomy, culture, and land rights of tribal population.

The whole melee has raised certain pertinent questions like who helped these immigrants to get legal documents? why those involved in their settlement should not be prosecuted? Why our political parties are ready to go up to any extent for being in power? Why SIR was being objected? Is India a Dharamshalla for anyone to stay? Why no count of their total number has been done till now? Why politics on such national issues is resorted by various political parties? Why questions are being raised on deportation? and much more…

(The author is a Professor Emeritus (M.A.I.T)

Guru Gobind Singh Indraprastha University, Delhi)