Sheikh Shabir
With Lok Sabha polls due in April/ May next year, all the political parties of the state Jammu and Kashmir are busy in preparations for these polls and for the state’s assembly elections which are likely to be held alongside the national polls. Meanwhile, a massive change is emerging in the political scenario of the state with politicians changing loyalties as a means to gain power. All political parties are going to face several challenges as the road ahead is bumpy.
Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) led by former chief minister Mehbooba Mufti is going through a tough phase: it’s once truest and loyalist members are either quiting citing ‘nepotism in the party’ or for ‘anti-party activities’ are sacked from the party. Former minister Basharat Bukhari and Peer Mohammad Hussain, have left PDP to go all the way to join National Conference (NC) while some important members have defected to Peoples Conference (PC). Losing party members is never a good news for any political party . For PDP, the loss is irreparable and an indicator of chaos and confusion inside it.
PDP’s disintegration can be seen as the party’s admission of the political blunders and wrong decision making when it was in power from 2015 to June 2018. The rebel members, who have changed their loyalties by joining the other parties, have felt that they have lost political ground and that the only way left to regain public sympathy and support is to leave PDP. How far will they succeed in converting the hate into affection for them? That remains to be seen.
What must be admitted is that the loss of the important party members will hurt PDP in the upcoming elections in many ways: one, the rival political parties will fight from a position of strength and Mehbooba’s party will be hard put to make a good fight unless it does things differently . PDP’s disintegration has given the rival parties an advantage to convince the voters that there is no future with it. Three, the rival parties can use to advantage PDP’s poor performance in its previous term. Thus the party’s political revival seems very difficult.
Possibly, Mehbooba has sensed her party’s fate and as such has stated to ‘rebuild the party’. This statement shows that PDP is in dire need to rebuild itself after the pull out of its core members. Although the party’s president has said the right thing, yet she has indirectly admitted that her party has weakened and needs rebuilding due to the loss of its important members .
The party’s plan of a ‘show of strength’ on the upcoming death anniversary of its founder and patron Mufti Muhammad Sayeed, is yet another indication of its downfall and disintegration. The party looks desperate to keep its members motivated and united to save itself from further damage.
Meanwhile, NC need not smell a victory due to PDP’s plight. PDP is not new to politics and has not lost its core electorate in Kashmir. Therefore, it will not allow NC to get an easy passage to the corridors of power.
Accepted that NC will take full advantage of PDP’s tumultuous and unsuccessful rule which it had in alliance with Bhartiya Janta Party (BJP) from 2015 to 2018. But that will work only in the Muslim areas of the state, not in the Hindu dominated Jammu region where the rightwing BJP has a strong voter base.. And by asking the Muslim voters to vote it to keep the Hindu BJP out, NC may be blamed for polarizing the state along religious lines . That can hurt its electoral gains.
Do not forget, BJP has its own share of voters in the Muslim regions of the state. That will make tougher for NC to win their support. PC, a BJP ally, led by Sajjad Gani Lone can give BJP an edge over NC.
The recent defeat of BJP in three states in the Hindu heartland of India may not be taken as a guarantee of its defeat in the upcoming polls in J&K. This Muslim dominated state has a slightly different political culture due to Kashmir conflict which has polarized it along religious lines, pitting Kashmir valley against Jammu. Generally, the people of Kashmir valley do not vote the BJP while those of the Hindu dominated Jammu region votes a Hindu political party. For the Hindu voters, BJP always remains the first priority.
Congress party of the state is also well placed to give a tough fight in the elections of 2019. The recent victories it has achieved against BJP, has raised its morale, making it believe that the rightwing party is not invincible. Thus, Congress will be fighting confidently and courageously to stage a comeback. A victory in J&K can make the road easier for Congress to regain power.
Therefore, the 2019 elections are going to be very interesting in the changing political scene in J&K. The main political party NC will face a litmus test to regain power in a situation in which PDP has little chances of making any impression. However, the parties like PC, BJP and Congress can heavily influence the poll results, making the fight very competitive. How will the situation shape up in the changing political scene of the trouble-torn state? Only time will tell.
(The author is a columnist Geopolitics Journal of USA)
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