And we keep silent

Who says that silence is a friend who will never betray? He has apparently not cared to visit our State. The reality is that we have chosen to let down ourselves by observing criminal silence. Even the humblest will strike back if harassed or imposed upon too far. In sharp contrast we refuse to act despite being inflicted with wounds and then having salt rubbed into them. Does it make any sense, therefore, that we should be complaining about the losses worth crores in the prevailing atmosphere in the Valley? What right do we have to shed tears given our own gross inactivity? It is not easy to assess the actual extent of financial setback that we have encountered and continue to face because of bandhs and curfews during the last more than two months in the Kashmir Valley. According to one estimate our economy has been dented by a huge Rs 21000 crore in about 80 tense days so far. The business community is said to have accumulated losses to the tune of Rs 8000 crore. Its assumption is based on the calculation that every day a sum of Rs 100 crore is going down the drain. The State Government, on the other hand, is losing Rs 161 crore per day in terms of sales tax, income tax and other levies. An official of the Finance Department has worked out the total in this regard to be more than Rs 13000 crore. It is an anti-climax after a booming season in the first half of the year. A leading hotelier has correctly summed up the scenario: "Most of hotels were running up to 80-90 per cent occupancy during the early days of the season but that came crashing to 30 per cent by the end of June and now we are without business for two months exactly."
Tourism and hospitality trades are the first casualties of violence. These are heavily dependent upon visitors from outside the State who understandably lose charm in staying back or extending their sojourn with their safety in danger. They go back regretting that they have made a bad bargain. There is no formal study yet but it can be anyone's guess that a sizable chunk of sightseers must have already been fed up with risky situation one year after the other and altogether dropped our State especially the highly picturesque Valley from their annual holiday itinerary. It is a permanent blow to us. Hotels and houseboats are without occupants leaving them with no alternative but to lay off their staff. As a consequence there is an increase in unemployment. The matters have worsened with some masked youth indulging in vandalism of some units in Rangreth Industrial Estate in Srinagar city and Lassipora Industrial Estate in Pulwama district.
These threatening incidents are meant to scare away industrial labour. There are thus no hotels, no industry, no schools and no colleges --- all of them are virtually closed. What is our response as citizens? Lakhs of us undergo agony each day. We are also getting poorer. Yet, not even a fraction is prepared to stand up and say enough is enough. It is high time that the civil society in the Valley asserted itself against those disturbing its normal life and adding to its trauma.

A highway crime

The murder of a young taxi driver by a group of unidentified criminals on the Nagrota-Manda road on Thursday night adds yet another dimension to the developing crime scenario in this region. From the available details it seems to have been a Bollywood-style macabre drama. The alleged assailants hired the car being driven by 23-year old Gurpreet Sigh of Nanak Nagar in this city from Katra for journey to Jammu. On the Nagrota-Manda road they tied the hands of the driver, inflicted injuries on his face with a weapon and then also strangulated him throwing his body on the road before driving away with the vehicle. Preliminary inquiries have revealed that they may have been three in number. They wore kurta pajama and spoke Punjabi which implied that they possibly belonged to the neighbouring State. The time between the execution of the dastardly crime and the recovery of the body on Friday was enough to make good escape from this State via Lakhanpur; it is presumed that they might have taken this route. Prima facie the motive of the alleged killers appears to have been to snatch the car. How does one interpret the incident except that it is one more in line with new crimes overwhelming this city and its vicinity? In the process it also exposes the vulnerability of the isolated Nagrota-Manda stretch. It calls for better policing. Whether we like it or not it is also a sad comment on our law-enforcing machinery in another sense too. Would it be an exaggeration to point at its failure to evoke any fear or respect even so close to a Capital city? There have been killings, including of a teenage boy, right under its nose in this city itself. What should one say when at stage a district police boss himself is exposed to the charge of complicity in a murder and is arrested? As ordinary citizens we too ought to share blame to some extent. We develop cold feet in the face of mischief-makers and black sheep among us. Instead, we must know that our united resistance can call the bluff of the wickedest of the bullies. Our collective silence amounts to acquiescence in a wrong-doing. The worse is that it goes on to encourage criminals to step up their evil activities. Why should we give them any room for destroying our lives?
This does not in any way mean that we have to take the job of police in our hands. We have to simply act as guardians of our own welfare. This is necessitated by the worsening crime scenario in our region especially in this city and its vicinity. The ever-increasing rush of pilgrims to this region, a busy airport and the railway station are bringing fresh challenges to our lifestyles. Added to it are the all-pervasive corruption and the menace of terrorism. Some of these factors combined together are a recipe for our disaster. Once the murders are not merely the outcome of hot tempers but also prior planning, as in the above instance, then we have to doubly worry. The engagement of hired killers has been alleged in another happening in Trikuta Nagar not very long ago. Somewhere we should make a beginning to stop this trend.

Sialkot, London and Lahore

IN AND AROUND J&K
By D. Suba Chandran

Three developments in Sialkot, London and Lahore, during the last couple of weeks, have shaken the conscience and confidence of an average Pakistani; one could see the despair and despondency in a plethora of writings in their own blogs, editorials and opinion articles. How did they end up in this mess? Where are they heading towards? What can we learn from the developments in our neighborhood?
In Sialkot, a mob, primarily belonging to the middle class, publicly attacked two brothers, for a minor issue over playing cricket. The vitims were thoroughly beaten up and lynched by the mob; worse, their bodies were hung in the posts, after being mutilated. Viewed by thousands and filmed by many, the incident brought to the focus, of how few people took law into their own hands. The rest, unfortunately were not the silent spectators; they were active participants. Sialkot, is not some Taliban land, or in the tribal region; considered to be a Sports town, and hardly few kms away from RS Pura. Why do people believe, they can take law into their hands, and execute people in public?
Far away from Sialkot, in London, a week ago, the News of the World, a British news paper in a damning story, brought out, how a group of players in Pakistan's cricket team, including its captain, Salman Butt, was a part of match fixing. The bookie, who was filmed taking the money, was boasting about his reach into the Pakistani cricket team, and ever referred to certain players in a derogatory manner. Mohammad Asif, who was one of the accused, later received the player of the series award. Asif is not the first one; from Salim Malik to Wasim Akram, there is a list, who has been accused by their own team and nation. Why should players, who otherwise are famous for their exploits in the cricketing field should do something horrendous like this?
Few days ago, in Lahore, there was a series of suicide and bomb attacks on a Shia procession, killing more than 35 persons; this was followed by another suicide attack on another Shia procession in Quetta, killing more than 50 people. Between these two towns, during the same period, there was another attack in Mardan, on a Ahmedi mosque. More than 90 people were killed in these three sectarian attacks, during the same period. Again, these three towns (in fact, Lahore is a city, and considered to be the cultural capital of Pakistan; like Sialkot, it is also a stone throw from the border) are not in Taliban land; they are urban towns/cities, with schools, colleges and universities. How did sectarian violence and Taliban influence come into the cities of Pakistan?
The above three questions, needs to be researched into. Answers may serve as lessons for India, in terms of how we should (or rather, how we should not) pursue the process of nation building and governance. Instead of looking into the happenings inside Pakistan from a parochial perspective and draw a sadistic pleasure, it would be useful, to learn from their mistakes, in not doing something. Lahore and Sialkot are not far from Jammu and Amritsar.
The recent happenings in Sialkot, Lahore and London represent three major failures for Pakistan. First, the failure of legal process and the institutions of governance. Why do people take law into their hands? One could understand, if the same thing has happened in Miranshah in Waziristan; one could blame it on the tribal laws and customs. But, how do we justify, when it happens in urban towns?
Despite the recent actions taken by Pakistan's judiciary led by its Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry, the legal institutions of Pakistan are weak, even today. One of the primary reason for the popular support to the Taliban ascendancy in Swat, has been the utter failure of mainstream legal institutions. Justice is both denied and delayed. What do people do, if they lose their faith in mainstream legal institutions?
The mob justice should not be blamed only on public frenzy; the failure of legal institutions needs to take the primary blame. Primitive institutions like tribal panchayats with archaic rulings under the hands of few feudal lords, and neo-religious movements like the Taliban, attempt to fill the void, created by mainstream legal institutions, by providing cheap and quick justice. Where there is no doctor, the quack is bound to have his say!
Second major failure, is related to accountability (or the lack of it). From the President to a common man on the road, there is a "Chalta-Hai" attitude in Pakistan; one could do whatever he wants to do, and still, he can certainly get away with it. This did not take place on a single day, but over a period. From the Parliament to the police booth in the local chowki, people in power discharge their duties with utter disdain. Millions get siphoned by political leaders; military rulers impose martial regimes; bureaucrats care a damn for rules and regulations; and commissions are more used for the omissions. From the assassination of Ayub Khan to that of Benazir Bhutto (both were ironically killed in the same park!) has there been any accountability?Within Pakistan cricket, there have been numerous claims and accusations; the most significant has been that on Salim Malik and Wasim Akram. From throwing away matches to doping and ball tampering, Pakistan team has been continuously courting controversies since the early 1990s, when Shane Warne and Steve Waugh complained against Salim Malik. The government instituted a commission headed by Justice Qayyum, which submitted its report in 1999, detailing what is happening within Pakistan Cricket Board (PCB) and the team. What happened to the report and its findings. Ironically, Justice Qayyum was quoted during the last few weeks, had the government and the PCB took action on his report, this ugly incident in London would not have happened.
The third major failure is related to crisis of governments/regimes and their search for legitimacy. The frequent changes in regimes (military and democratic) resulted in each of them trying to search for legitimacy; in the process, they created both by default and design, certain groups/organizations. Taliban and Sectarain organizations are a deliberate creation of successive regimes; if one regime created it, others perpetuated, for narrow political objectives. National interests became secondary, to regime and party interests. Sectarian violence and Taliban expansion are a part of this undermining of national interests.
Failure of governance process, especially the legal institutions in providing justice; complete mockery of accountability; and the undermining of national interests for narrow political and regime interests, have been three primary reasons for what has happened in these three cities during the last two weeks. Sectarian killings, mob violence and match fixing are expressions of a deeper problem; they are merely an expression of a chronic disease.
(The author is Deputy Director, Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies (IPCS), New Delhi)

Natural bounty and mining companies

By Dr Bharat Jhunjhunwala

The National Mining Policy, 2008 committed to exploit natural resources in keeping with long term interests of the nation. It was necessary to ensure mineral security during periods of international strife, it was said. But the export policy of iron ore is contrary to this commitment.
The superior iron ore is hematite. We have reserves of about 12 billion tons of this which is sufficient for 30 years. The inferior ore is magnetite of which we have 11 billion tons. Indian steel mills use little magnetite. Thus our reserves will last only about 30 years. This is equal to a few minutes of a day considering 5000 years' history of our civilization. Therefore, exports of iron ore should be immediately banned for ensuring mineral security of the nation. That is what the United States has done. It has iron ore reserves of 50 tons per capita. It has banned iron ore exports. Our reserves are only 21 tons per capita yet more than one-half of our ore production is exported. Reportedly there has been an increase of 20 percent in ore exports. Surely, our consumption of steel per capita is less than that of the United States. But we aim to become 'developed' soon, do we not? Therefore, we have to plan for the future demand and not hide behind low demand of the present.
Ores are received by us as a gift from nature. They cannot be produced like milk or software. Supply of milk increases if there is an increase in price. But supply of iron ore cannot increase because availability is limited by nature. Therefore, we cannot leave the exports to market forces. It may not be wise to export even if global prices are high just as one does not sell the family jewelry when gold prices soar.
The landed price of iron ore in the Chinese market today is about Rs 5,000 per ton. The cost of production is Rs 300, taxes Rs 300, sea transport to China Rs 600 and, say, profits of the mining company are Rs 100. The total cost is Rs 1,300 per ton. Question is who is the rightful owner of the remainder Rs 3,700? This is actually the value of nature's gift. It belongs to all citizens of the country. Therefore, this money should be collected by the government as the custodian of common rights of the people. But this huge amount of money is being collected by the mining companies in the present dispensation. Appropriation of this common wealth by individuals is at the root of development of mining mafias across the world. Therefore, a royalty equal to the nature's gift of Rs 3,700 per ton should be collected from all mining companies-domestic users as well as exporters. Mining companies should get only normal profits on the expenditures incurred in production.
Further, we should try to secure an increase in the global price of iron ore. An increase in global price will tantamount to increase in the value of nature's gift. Main exporters of iron ore are Australia, Brazil and India. In 2008, the main Brazilian exporter Vale had sought an increase in price from Chinese importers. Chinese importers did not agree to this. Instead they imported more from India in the spot markets. That might explain the increase in exports from India in recent years. In consequence, India prevented an increase in global price. Just as a section of the trade union joins with the mill owners and breaks the strike for its petty personal gains, so also India broke the Brazilian effort for petty gains. It was wiser for India to cooperate with Brazil and jointly seek an increase in price from Chinese importers.
Three points emerge from the above discussion. One, a huge increase in royalty on ores should be made to collect nature's gift and to use it for the collective good of the people. This money may be distributed to all citizens in cash. This will lead to reduction in mining and help preserve our mineral security. Two, rates of royalty on inferior magnetite ore may be kept less. This will encourage domestic producers to use this and extend the life of our reserves. Three, India should make an export cartel with Australia and Brazil and jointly impose a hefty export tax in addition to the royalty. Joint action will prevent Chinese importers to play one exporter against the other and keep prices low.
Counterargument is that we must make exports the engine of economic growth. Theoretically, this is correct. Every country should export those items which it can produce cheap. But this applies only to countries that have large reserves of ore and whose domestic requirements are much less than the available quantities. For example, Australia has iron ore reserves of 2,000 tons per capita. India has only 21 tons per capita. The export-led growth argument holds for both countries but the items to be exported would be different. Australia may surely export iron ore, but India would do well to export labour-which is available aplenty. The farmer first stores grains for his domestic requirement and then sells the excess quantity. We should do the same for iron ore.
Counterargument is that banning exports will hit at the large employment in mining companies because domestic steel mills do not have the capacity to consume the entire domestic production. This argument is valid, but only in the short run. About 30 years ago export of raw hides from the country was banned. Soon a vibrant industry of finished leather products got developed. Similarly, domestic steel industry will grow as fast as soon as exports are banned and jobs will regenerate. In any event jobs in mining are limited by the availability of iron ore. Question is whether we generate these jobs now or leave some to be generated in future. The farmer does not sell all the earth of his fields for brick making at one go. Similarly we should not sell all the ore and try to grab all jobs immediately.
Counterargument is that the petty interests of mining versus steel companies are involved in the debate. Mining companies want taxes to be kept low so that exports are buoyant. Steel companies, on the other hand, want export taxes to be jacked up so that domestic availability increases and prices move southwards. These petty interests are certainly at play. But the government should rise both above mining mafias and steel barons and make a policy in national interest. And, ensuring mineral security as well as maximizing export incomes both requires increase in royalties and export taxes.
Last counterargument is that we should increase exports of manufactured steel instead of iron ore. The logic is correct insofar as promotion of value added exports is concerned. But mineral security is a much bigger issue. It as much affected by steel exports as by ore exports. The government must rise above petty interests of various contending groups and impose a huge royalty as well as export tax on all mining and exports of iron ore.

China real threat

By Brij Bhardwaj

There is a growing opinion in India that Pakistan may be an irritant and an immediate threat posed by Jihadi groups based in that country, but China is a real problem in the long run. Its policy of encirclement as witnessed by its growing presence in our neighbourhood, its open support to Pakistan on Kashmir issue and raking up questions about the status of Arunachal Pradesh should leave no one in doubt that China is flexing its muscles as a big power and posing a challenge to us if not open hostility.
Indian’s response to these provocative acts has been muted and there has been a tendency to play it down. To start with let us have a look at its changing stance on Kashmir issue. In the past China had maintained that it was a dispute between India and Pakistan and should be resolved through bilateral talks. It has now virtually endorsed the Pakistan stand by showing the same as part of Pakistan in maps by issuing stapled visas to people belonging to Kashmir and by refusing to grant visa to GOC Northern Command on the plea that he held charge of Kashmir.
These provocations were serious enough, but a new one was added by sending large contingent of Chinese troops to Gilgit, a part of Jammu and Kashmir to help Pakistan army which is fighting local rebels there. China has also gained lot of logistic advantage in Tibet by building a network of roads in areas close to Indo-Chinese border. India had declared few years ago its resolve to improve road network on border with China but has little to show on the ground. The only visible action has been upgrading of some airfields in forward areas, move to raise new mountain battalions and stationing of a squadron of fighter planes in the border region.
According to defence experts the advantage has shifted in favour of China in the border region between the two countries. In addition China has built a support base in Nepal in terms of rise of Maoists who support pro-China line, In Myanmar and Sri Lanka it is building port facilities to increase its presence in Indian Ocean. In Balochistan it is building a port which will give it an access to strategic region. All these steps clearly indicate that China has started making its presence felt in the region as a major power.
This will be on display in a much bigger way as US faces series of setbacks in Afghanistan. Its influence in Pakistan is also on decline as the Chinese have come up in a big way in that country by being declared as the most reliable ally. The US has poured in billions of dollars to support Pakistan army and also helped in providing relief for flood victims, but their popularity rating remains low in that country with Jihadi groups holding a sway over a large section of population.
Under the circumstances, India has no option but to consider various steps to bolster its position in comparison to China. It is ironic that the volume of trade between India and China continues to grow but the Chinese hostility towards India is also on rise instead of changing. China would like India to open its markets for Chinese products but is not prepared to treat it as a friend. The cooperation witnessed between the two countries during Climate summit and WTO talks has become a part of history and Chinese establishment is continuing to make hostile noises. Agreed given the present state of economy of two countries India is not in a position to match China in Arms build up, but within the limited means a lot can be done.
For instance there is no reason why the program to build roads in border region with China should face endless delays when the Defence Ministry continues to surrender large part of its budget unutilised at the end of the of the financial year. Our defence procurement also suffers from bureaucratic and political delays. Items like new artillery pieces urgently needed have not been procured. It is time that process of selection is shortened in terms of months instead of taking years.
Our policy of self-sufficiency in defence items remain’s a distant dream as public sector units and research organisations continue to underperform and private sector is kept out. A time has come when the economic reforms process should be started in defence related industries. India is not as badly prepared for hostilities if they break out as in 1962 but the gap between us and China remains large as they have grown much faster.
Recently some sense of urgency has been witnessed in corridors of power, but it is yet to be translated into action on the ground. There is need for our senior leaders including Prime Minister to take note of developments in this sensitive area involving our security as any shortcomings in this sector will have far reaching consequences as compared to other items engaging their attention. We need a task force which should take up the job of plugging the gaps in national security.
India also needs to build up on its links with countries like South Korea, Vietnam and Cambodia. They also are apprehensive about growing Chinese power. In the years to come India will have to build its ties with countries of Asia and Africa in search for markets and raw materials. It will involve competition with China for which we should be prepared. (NPA)