Self-propped obstacles hinder Progress

By Mahendra Ved

An India resurgent on the economic front is in a political mark-time as the momentous 2007 ends. Its politics and politicians do not seem to have kept pace with economic strides and the globalisation process of which India has become an intrinsic part. Seven years into the "Asian Century," a key player finds its political path strewn with self-propped obstacles.

There is persistent talk of an early election, well before Prime Minister Manmohan Singh completes his term in mid-2009. But the prospects, as of today, are of another hung Parliament, with a clear mandate to none. Like I said some Mondays back, it is still an election that no one wants. However, in view of a steady deterioration in ties between the Congress and the Left parties over the India-US nuclear deal, it is difficult to see how the two can remain together for the rest of the term. Indeed, the principal cause of conflict is the nuclear deal. Manmohan's Government is willing to wound, and push the deal forward, but is afraid to strike for fear of losing a parliamentary majority.

The threat comes, not only from the Left, the outside prop, but also from the ruling alliance partners. For them, staying in power and warding off election is the only objective.

I have serious doubts about early polls because the Congress Party knows which side of the political bread has the butter. Does that mean the nuclear deal is kaput? The answer is enmeshed in ifs and buts. Sixty per cent of the lawmakers opposed it when both houses of Parliament discussed it last month. It cannot go through if that is the indicator. But the numbers can change, if not now, then in the foreseeable future. The communist camp's speculation is that the opposition Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), since it is not basically opposed to the deal, may align with the Government after the key elections in Gujarat province.

The Left's gingerly assessment is that having stemmed the tide of its electoral losses, the BJP, with an eye on the future, may decide to woo the United States, the business leaders, media and the urban middle class that support the deal. If it doesn't, then Congress corners these influential sections, going to them as modern-day martyrs, thwarted in their quest to take the country on the path of global glory. Thus, taking a long shot, the deal would go through, if not by the present Government, then its successor - and US President George Bush's successor. After all, China took 13 years, and the European Union five, to sign similar agreements with the US.

As of now, however, politics has awakened the prophets of doom. Oxford Analytica, a British think tank, has told Forbes magazine that the poll buzz, accompanied by high inflation, has forced a lowering of India's gross domestic product (GDP) projection by one per cent to 8.4. I am not alone in having doubts about an early election. But then, elections take place in India even when nobody wants them - neither the political parties, nor the bureaucracy and certainly not the people. The cost of a general election for 700 million voters is high - Rs5-6 billion (RM425-RM525 million). What parties and candidates spend is difficult to count. In 2004, it was estimated at Rs30 billion - a heavy price to pay to be the world's largest democracy that has had 14 parliamentary polls. Has it been worth it? The answer is yes and no, even a mix of the two, depending upon how one looks at this, what John Kenneth Galbraith once famously called "functioning anarchy", an opinion he revised later to call it a role model for other democracies.

With leaders of national stature fading - Atal Bihari Vajpayee has just quit in favor of L.K. Advani - the political arena has basically provincial satraps calling the shots. There seems no end in sight to coalitions of 20-plus parties, some one-person shows, aligning only to share power. So much so that many have begun to see virtues in governance by coalition as the representative of, and panacea to deal with, the diversities that abound in this vast land.

The coalition partners agree to a common minimum programme, smoothening out for public consumption their rough individual edges, and stick together - and power is great glue. One would not quarrel with this arrangement if it provided good governance. The problem is that it slows down decision-making, even prevents it. A small minority can hamstring the Government. India's democracy seems condemned to be run by the lowest common denominator.

How long these arithmetical tricks of combining castes and promising reservations will help these parties with limited visions is open to question. Not surprisingly, there is a recurring debate on the need to switch over to the presidential system. However, the debate is confined to seminar rooms and political journals. Politicians of practically all hues think the parliamentary form is the best. Conceding that they are right, they need to do a great deal of introspection as to why it has worked the way it has. The system of political parties has to evolve. The parliamentary system requires the existence of clearly defined political parties, each with a coherent set of policies and preferences that distinguish it from the others. In India, a party is merely a label of convenience to be adopted and discarded at will. Polls are a painful - and expensive - way out of a political stalemate. They provide no panacea to the problems. The parliamentary system borrowed from the British has become, in Indian conditions, nothing but a recipe for Governmental instability. India, with its critical economic and social challenges, cannot afford it. India needs a system of Government whose leaders can focus on governance rather on staying in power. CNF

India-Afirca forum submit

By R C Rajamani

The recent two-day first India-Africa Forum Summit in New Delhi is being seen as India's desire to re-engage its historic friends in Africa. The of the Delhi Declaration released at then end of the meet coupled with a plan of action focuses on furthering cooperation in areas like environment, health, education, energy and mining. The declaration also addresses broader areas of cooperation and common views on regional and international issues, including fight against terrorism, climate change and WTO negotiations. In an allusion to pre-summit criticism that India has let China steal a march over it in the matter of engaging the African continent, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh clarified that India is not in race or competition with China or any other country for strengthening all-round partnership with Africa ."We arc not in race or competition with China or any other country. The decision to strengthen relations between India and Africa is not a new phenomenon. We have a common colonial past and in the post-colonial period we have worked together," the Prime Minister said at a joint press conference after the conclusion of the summit. His assertion came in the presence of Heads of State/ Representatives of 14 participating African countries chosen by the 54-member African Union. The Prime Minister who was flanked by Tanzanian President Jakaya Mrisho Kikwete, who is also Chairperson of the 53-nation Africa Union (AU), and African Union Commission Chairperson Alpha Oumar Konare, said India did not want to impose any pattern on Africa and it was for Africa to choose its own pattern of development. However, India would be privileged to be a partner in that process, headed. The Summit was attended by the Presidents of South Africa, Uganda, Tanzania, Ghana, Senegal and the Democratic Republic of Congo, the Vice Presidents of Nigeria and Zambia, Prime Ministers of Burkina Faso and Ethiopia and Ministers and Special Representatives from Algeria, Egypt, Kenya and Libya an d the Chairperson of the African Union (AU) Commission. The Tanzanian President said India, with its experience and expertise, could help African countries usher in Green Revolution. He said it was agreed at the Summit that world bodies including the United Nations and World Bank and the IMF were in need of urgent reforms to make them more representative and democratic. Both India and Africa had agreed to support each other for a seat on the UN Security Council. The Summit which was inaugurated by Dr. Singh, adopted two vision documents--the Africa India Framework for cooperation and the Delhi Declaration--signifying a blueprint for future cooperation between India and Africa.

The Summit adopted the Delhi Declaration and the Africa-India Framework for Cooperation. These documents constitute the blueprint for our cooperation in the 21st Century. India's decision to expand unilateral duty free and preferential market access for exports from all the 50 Least Developed Countries, 34 of which are in Africa, and its offer of lines of credit amounting to $5.4 billion are steps in this direction. The enhancement of India's budget for technical assistance and training programmes and, greater opportunities for African students to pursue studies in India reflect the priority India attach to human resource development and capacity building. India also offered its assistance in ushering in a Green Revolution in Africa through holistic capacity building in agricultural production, storage and transportation. India has also begun to develop cooperation with the Regional Economic Communities of Africa and with the African Union (AU). India's pan-African e-network project is an example of its cooperation at the continent wide level. As the Tanzanian President pointed out to the media, it was agreed at the Summit that world bodies including the United Nations and World Bank and the IMF were in need of urgent reforms to make them more representative and democratic. Both India and Africa had agreed to support each other for a sea ton the UN Security Council. The Tanzanian President said both sides had agreed that Africa and India deserved permanent representation on the UNSC and would support each other. He said both sides had been broadly working together for UN reforms and were now ready to strive to make the UN more representative and democratic. " We are in agreement and are working together...we reaffirmed our commitment to working together so that Africa gets a place (on the UNSC) and India gets a place (on the UNSC)," he remarked. With the summit over, it is perhaps time for India to reflect on its Africa policy during the past few decades. Champion of Africa's freedom in the colonial era, India had inexplicably slippedin its engagement of the continent, leaving China to steal a march over it as Africa's ally. So much so, India's Africa policy is considered to be "five years behind" that of China. New Delhi woke up after President Hu Jintao's 8-nation tripto Africa a year ago. The Africa Division of the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) was asked to propose new ideas to prepare a draft of new Africa policy to help New Delhi compete with China. China had played host in 2006 to an African summit that was attended by 35 heads of state and to representatives from 15 other nations from the 53-nation continent.

Towards the end of Nehru's tenure, India's Africa relation dipped to a low. By the mid-1960s India undertook a serious reassessment of its Africa policy and adopted some fresh initiatives. Indira Gandhi's African Safari in 1964 was aimed at measuring the depth of African solidarity with India. By the 1970s, India's stature had risen in African eyes; the Indo-Soviet Treaty (1971), the 1971 war, the Green Revolution, and the Peaceful Nuclear Explosion (PNE) in 1974 probably contributed towards this change. In the 1970s and 1980s India continued to support liberation struggles in Africa. It worked closely with the Africans in the fight against apartheid in South Africa and Namibia; not just at the UN but also at other multilateral for a such as NAM, and the Commonwealth. India had accorded diplomatic status to the African National Congress (ANC) in 1967 and SWAPO (South West African People's Organisation) in 1985. The Africa Fund was established by NAM under Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi's leadership in 1986 to assist frontline states and liberation movements in South Africa and Namibia. According to one estimate India provided Rs 36 million by 1977-78 while India's initial contribution to the Africa Fund was Rs 500 million which included private and individual contributions of Rs 25 million. India has been providing military training to officers and JCOs of the African defence forces. Most of the African countries lack military training institutions and, therefore, the officers are often sent abroad either to the military colleges of the former colonial powers or friendly countries in the developing world. Since the 1960s India has provided military training to a number of Africans, primarily from Anglophone Africa. Having gained a head start in Africa, observers stress, India should not allow itself to play second fiddle to China as a vigorously engaging ally of Africa. The strategic, political and economic stakes are too high for India to ignore, they warn. (PTI)