Election 'adjustments' round the corner

By Arun Nehru

The election season is in full swing and election results in Tripura result in a landslide CPI[M] victory and I wonder if this will be the trend in West Bengal where the Left seem to be making up lost ground as the Congress/TC discuss their future arrangements. The results in Nagaland and Meghalaya are on predictable lines and whilst the Congress hold their ground and come close to a simple majority the Regional parties show their muscle and in both these states we will see a constant game of 'musical chairs' till a proper power and asset sharing agreement is reached. The Governor invites the Congress and the DD Lapang is sworn in a hurry and has two days to prove his majority and I suppose 48 hrs is sufficient for a few MLA's to switch positions! PA Sangma the former Speaker and the NCP candidate for CM had cobbled together a Coalition [MPA has 31 MLA's out of 60] but this was not good enough for the Governor. The MPA have gone to the Supreme Court and I think we will see a repetition of events which have taken place earlier in Jharkhand, Goa and Bihar. The Nagaland situation is also 'fluid' as DAN [Democratic Alliance of Nagaland] won the largest number of seats and parade 33 out of 60 MLA's and Governor is yet to take a decision and I wonder if this delay will help the Congress to muster a majority. The situation both in Meghalaya and Nagaland will be subject to constant instability and sadly there will be little peace in these area's and this is unfortunate as security issues are involved and if a poll verdict is negated by 'defections' then the situation will deteriorate. The political policy in border states has to be very different from other area's and the J&K experiment by the Congress where the PDP with lesser seats were given the power to govern was the right decision and I think greater attention has to be paid to political arrangements in the North East which is our major area of terror infiltration. The Congress with Coalition politics taking hold is losing its 'majority' status but still has sufficient numbers to enter into workable alliances with Regional forces to provide good governance to this vital region and I think this trend will be evident in the Lok Sabha elections. The acid test may well come in Assam with 13 seats and a 'alliance' between the AGP/BJP and the anti incumbency trend may be a problem for the Congress.

The timing of the election is with the UPA and whilst the Congress has little advantage in a early election there is still the scope of 'political accidents' and the progress of the BJP led NDA and the Left/SP dominated Third Front will be closely watched. Sonia Gandhi will no doubt be the major campaigner but Rahul Gandhi and his intense tour of the tribal area's in Orissa [well attended meetings] will undertake election tours and his approach in targeting the 'youth' [demographic pattern indicates 65% voters in this category] with a practical no nonsense approach may well produce a positive response from the 'new' electorate. Rahul Gandhi was not able to do much in terms of electoral success in UP but after a decade during which the political base had shifted away from the party there is a effort from the party to engage in political activity. I don't think that the Congress will be able to gain much in the Lok Sabha election in UP but nothing really lasts forever and as the anti incumbency trends appear in the future the Congress will have a fighting chance of success. The Congress General Secretary promises change in the future and if this happens then it will be a 'positive'. The task before the Congress is not easy and there are multiple issues in many states and it is good to see the initiative being taken in Karnataka where SM Krishna returns to active politics and I still think that the Congress should go to elections in Karnataka as early as possible. My experience over a decade of fighting elections is that if a political party is not ready to fight elections with a three months notice it will not be ready for three years and a single election victory before the Lok Sabha election may well disrupt the consolidation of the NDA and the formation of the Third Front. A defeat for the Congress can work the other way round but then fortune favor's those who brave the elements and take the window of opportunity.

Elections may be a year away but the adjustments and alliances of the future are beginning to take shape and I think the recent Rajya Sabha elections may well reveal the complex task faced by each party in the state. West Bengal is a classic example where the Congress will have to choose between the TC [future ally] in preference to the CPI[M] [current ally] in selection of the final candidate as no party has the numbers to win on their own and a similar position may exist in several other states [Karnataka, Bihar] We will see new 'alliances' taking place in Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pr , Maharashtra, Haryana, Jharkhand, Assam and perhaps in J&K where the PDP/NC are locked in a struggle in the Valley. The Congress/BJP may theoretically have a 'straight' fight in MP, Rajasthan and Chattisgarh and Delhi but the BSP will be present in all these states and may well be the Third force in all these states and are unlikely to align with anyone in particular as a policy in this election. No election forecast is ever easy and all analysts will in all probability go wrong as every state has its own electoral compulsions and all current alliances may well change several times as everyone looks for a winning combination and political longevity.

Indigenise Naval capability

By N.S. Kohli

It is a mark of the political rot in our country that no major political leader has decried the swindling of future unborn generations of India by foreign arms suppliers and other foreign agents. The worst case is that of the Russian deal on the burnt-out aircraft-carrier Admiral Gorshkov. The BJP-led government closed the deal in January 2004 for some $1,500,000,000, inclusive of 16 MiG-29K fighters, six Kamov helicopters, training for pilots, simulators and spare parts.

Delivery was due this year, in time for the retirement of India's one existing aircraft carrier Viraat. Russia has reneged on the contract-not only failing to deliver the refurbished ship but has demanded an almost 100 per cent hike in the contracted price to more than $2,700,000,000 before delivery perhaps in 2012. India's intrepid Naval Chief, Admiral Sureesh Mehta, has found this objectionable but there has been no squeak of protest from our political class-not from the purported economists running our government, nor from the nationalists running the opposition, nor from the communists who keep saluting every year at Lenin's statute.

The best course of action is to scrap the deal and try to recover whatever moneys we can by the terms of the contract-taking the Russians to court or to international arbitration if need be. In fact, there has not even been any serious debate in this country on the issue of aircraft carriers versus submarines that all other major countries have. In every other country, including the USA, the submarine has won the debate and the aircraft-carrier has lost. Submarines are relatively cheap, lethal and silent; aircraft-carriers are expensive sitting ducks. The age of the aircraft-carrier was the pre-missile age of the Second World War more than half a century ago.

India's defence build up is based on "triad"-land, air and sea. The weakest link is the sea power. Our defence expenditure is less than 2.5 per cent of the GDP-one of the lowest for any major country and well below that of some of our neighbours. While the army and air force have been getting their due share within the allocated resources, the navy is the most neglected wing of the three services. A modest increase in the budget for the navy is not asking for too much even within the constraints of fiscal austerity.

India's economic zones in the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea are under constant threat. In case of a hostility breaking out with Pakistan, our on-sea installation for crude oil production will face destruction causing not only immense economic loss, but ecological devastation of great magnitude.

Currently the debate centres on the under-sea acquisition-like submarines, and, on-surface acquisitions like frigates and aircraft carriers. In more than one sense, the debate is lopsided. What we really need is an even matched combination-under-sea and on-surface multiplier capabilities for defensive and offensive jobs.

Over the last 10-years, our navy except for a few submarines has not acquired any new kind of vessel. Some of the older ships have become unserviceable. Quite a few have been sent to junk yard, and many are awaiting their turn. Two of the Foxtrot class submarines were sent to breakers' yard long ago, and soon two more will be decommissioned. This has reduced the effective strength of our under-water fleet to no more than 16.

During his recent visit to Moscow, defence secretary Vikram Singh, held talks with Russian officials of reacquisition of a batch of Akula class submarines. We are begging Russia to expedite the delivery of burnt out the aircraft carrier admiral Gorshkov, and Russians are blackmailing us. Thus, we are going for a soft option acquisition-an off-the-shelf-purchase rather than for indigenous construction. This may be unavoidable in the short-run, but what we need is self-reliance for building ships of all varieties. On board we have had plans for fully utilising the Mazagon dock facilities. Needless to add, we had spent Rs. 2000 crore to build up the facility at Mumbai.

Instead of formulating long-term naval strategy aimed at maximum security within the prevailing bounds of the defence expenditure, our navy continues to focus on the aircraft carrier, wanting to be recognised as a "blue water" navy.

In the present charged geopolitical scenario in South Asia, there is no denying that the Indian navy has a significant role to play along with the army and air force. But this should be clearly defined keeping in mind our national objectives.

An aircraft carrier acts as a floating airstrip away from the mainland in situations where it is not possible to provide air cover from the land. Thus, it has an attack role in waters far away from the mainland. However, India has always pursued a defensive policy and has no intention in normal circumstances of fighting an enemy in its (the enemy's) territory or entering the territorial limits of its waters. Even if that were so, all our airfields are so located that we are in a position to provide adequate air cover to our troops and ships around our borders. To this, if we add our land and sea-based missile capacity, then there is no area left on land or sea where we cannot be effective.

An important factor tilting the balance against the aircraft carrier is the tying-up of other capital ships and the carrier's own aircraft to simply protect this floating platform. According to US estimates, 14 ancillary ships and almost two-thirds of the aircraft on board are required to guard the carrier itself, thus leaving only about one-third of the total aircraft free for attack. As much as eight-tenths of the Rs. 50,000 crores worth of assets that constitute an aircraft task group, serves no other function than to protect the carrier. Despite all this, there is still no guarantee of safety. With the ready availability of cheap, efficient and accurate long-range guided missiles, an aircraft carrier can be destroyed at will by small nations at a minimal cost.

Therefore, the issue that has to be seriously considered is not whether the navy requires more aircraft carriers and an indigenous replacement for Admiral Gorshkov, but whether it needs any at all. Clearly the aircraft carrier is a weapons system for those with imperial ambitions, who wish to wage war far away from their mainland. It is significant that many countries with longer coastlines and greater wealth than India like Japan, Australia, China, Canada, the Netherlands and Germany have no aircraft carriers at all, but have a substantial number of other warships, especially submarines, which by all accounts are a more effective weapon system.

The Indian navy certainly needs more teeth in the shape of guided missile vessels, long-range ocean-surveillance aircraft, helicopters, and attack and hunter-killer submarines, preferably nuclear. However, even these must be within a fully integrated inter-service perspective. The proposed Advanced Technology Vessel (ATV) may be the answer.

By the end of this decade, India should have a fully-operational nuclear submarine of its own. The ATV project to build a nuclear-powered, guided-missile attack submarine is now on track after years of technical glitches and design problems.

As reported the first functional ATV should be ready for trials by 2010-12. The technical problems, including fitting a miniaturised pressurised water reactor (PWR) and its containment vessel in the submarine's hull, have more or less been sorted out. India, of course, eventually plans to arm nuclear-powered submarines with nuclear-tipped missiles since they provide the most effective and secure platform for a second-strike capability. No sooner the project is completed, India will have deep blue water capability to take on its adversaries. INAV

Raison detre of employees strike

By Ramesh Chander

Govt employees and public sector employees are seen resorting to strikes every now and then. Sometimes issues at strike are genuine but in most of the cases strikes are riggered due to act of omission or commission in some other department or in respect of some other class or grade of employees. Public sector employees are seen striking for release of their salaries, release of COLA, and as consequence of strike for release of their arrested employees. Reasons of strikes are mostly enhancement in salaries, grant of higher pay-scales, regularization of their services etc. Sometimes it is one segment of employees that is on strike and at other time it is some other segment. By and large system of pay-scales, promotions and replacement of one scale by another scale in Central Govt is rational and State Govts should follow the same pattern horizontally and vertically rankwise instead of creating anomalies and strike like situations. Present strike by clerical staff i.e Junior Assistants, Senior Assistants, Head Assistants is triggered by placing the Section officers in the higher pay-scale of Rs 7450-12000. J&K Govt has few months back placed Sections officers, Assistant Accounts officers and senior scale stenographers in the higher pay-scale of Rs 7450-12000 from Rs 6500-10500 due to which first, Accounts employees resorted to strike and now it is clerical staff who is on strike since last more than 20 days. Existing pay-scale of Rs 3050-4950/4000-6000/5000-8000 for Jr Asstt, Sr Asstt and Head Asstt. respectively was never a cause of grievance till Section officer who is next in their Administrative hierarchy was in the pay-scale of Rs 6500-10500. Similarly Jr Stenographers never felt aggrieved till their next in hierarchy i.e Sr Scale Stenographers were in the pay-scale of Rs 5500-9000. Due to placement of SOs/AAOs/Sr. Scale Stenographers in the higher pay-scale of Rs 7450-12000 a anomalous and unwarranted situation is prevailing. S.O. and his next in hierarchy i.e Under Secretary are virtually in same scale. AAO and his next in hierarchy i.e. A.O. are virtually in same pay-scale. Similarly Sr Scale Stenographers and his next in hierarchy i.e Private Secretary are in the same pay-scale. Such type of situations create anomalies and serve as dis-incentive for officers who were heretofore in the higher scale. Due to granting of higher scale to SOs, AAOs, KAS officers are demanding their placement in still higher pay-scale of Rs 8000-13500 because their immediate junior is in the scale of Rs 7450-12000/- AAOs/SOs/Sr. Scale Stenos are in the pay-scale which is two stages above the gazetted pay-scale of Rs 6500-10500; which implies that a Sr Stenographer is 3rd Rung Gazetted officer which sounds illogical and incredible, keeping in view his qualification, duties and responsibilities. A engineering graduate joins as JE in the pay-scale of Rs 4500-7000/-, whereas a shorthand knowing matriculate can join as Sr Stenographer in the pay-scale of Rs 7450-12000.

Due to placement of SO, AAO, Sr Steno's in higher pay-scale of Rs 7450-12000/-, other anomalies have crept in. Immediate junior of Under Secretary, Accounts Officer, Private Secretary is in the pay-scale of Rs 7450-12000/-, where immediate junior of Tehsildar is in the pay-scale of Rs 6500-10500, immediate junior of ETO is in the pay-scale of Rs 5000-8000, immediate junior of Dy. Registrar is in the pay-scale of Rs 6700-11000/-. Immediate junior of Dy. S.P. is in the scale of Rs 6500-10500/-, immediate junior of BDO is in the scale of Rs 5700-10100/-.

From the above it is seen that immediate junior of gazetted officer in different cadres are in different pay-scales. From immediate junior pay-scale point of view, Inspector Commercial Taxes & Excise and Inspector Panchayats should be in the pay-scale of Rs 6500-10500/-. Govt should see the allied ramifications while granting higher pay-scale to any class or grade of employees. For proper functioning of Govt. system there should be distinct pay-scales applicable for all classes of employees i.e Class -I, II, III & IV. Minimum difference in two pay-scales should be atleast of Rs 500/- for Class-IV employees, Rs 800/- for Class-III employees, Rs 1200/- for Class - II employees and Rs 2000/- for class-I employees. Pay scales should be so devised that every employee reaches minimum of next pay-scale after earning six increments. Every time when new pay-scales are announced their becomes chaos like situation while replacing old scales of employees with new once. Because many times number of scales are reduced and 2 to 3 scales are clubbed in one scale which becomes cause of grievance for officers who were heretofore in higher pay-scale. Changing pay-scale of one class or grade of employees results in consequential demand by other higher or lower in the hierarchy for change of their grades because it is always the comparative pay-scale due to which one feels distinguished or better in status.

Strictly speaking pay-scales should be treated as pillars and steel frames in the hierachical structure and should not be disturbed every now and then.