Holes in the budget

By Dr Bharat Jhunjhunwala

The ability of the budget to garner votes for the Congress will depend upon whether the opposition can expose the many holes present therein. Much hope lies in the political impact of writing off loans of farmers. There is doubt whether this will deliver. The Government had similarly written off loans of farmers two decades ago under the leadership of Choudhary Devi Lal. That measure did not beget votes then. Perhaps the contradiction is not clear to the readers. The Finance Minister has promised to double the flow of credit to farmers in the next two years. He has told the increase in such flow of credit as a major achievement of the Government. More flow of credit means that farmers are burdened with more loans. The Finance Minister is increasing the indebtedness of the farmers and telling this as a major achievement. On the other hand, the Finance Minister is writing off debt of the farmers also telling this as a major achievement. If debt is good, then there was no need to write off the same. If debt is bad, then there was no need to double the same. The Finance Minister is like a doctor who gives iron tablets to the patient to increase his blood count only to extract more blood from his veins. He wants to keep the farmers locked in the viscous cycle of more loans, more debts, more loss and more write offs.

The farmer's problem is that of price of his produce. There was a bumper crop of bajra in Rajasthan few years ago. Farmers were very happy. However, this euphoria did not last. Soon the price of bajra in the market declined from Rs 5.50 per kg to Rs 2.50. It became difficult for farmers to even retrieve the cost of harvesting. Let us not forget that agricultural productivity has continuously improved in the last fifty years yet the farmer's fate has been downcast. Reason is that the gains from increased production are wiped off by a decline in prices. Note the Finance Minister has not said a word on the need to raise prices of agricultural commodities in his budget speech. This silence is ominous. It indicates that the Finance Minister is interested in keeping farm prices on the lower side. In consequence, the gains made by farmers from write off loans will be small and soon forgotten while loss incurred by them from low prices will be large and perpetual. This policy will not beget votes for the Congress if the opposition can raise the question of declining prices.

There is a positive aspect for the farmers, however. Prices of agricultural commodities had been declining in the last three decades. They have started looking upwards in the last two years. There is a fundamental shift in nature of world agriculture today. Previously agriculture was mainly producing food and fibers like cotton. Less rise in world population limited the demand for these products. Lately, agriculture has become a source of fuel. Corn is being converted into bio-diesel in the United States. This is leading to shortage of this crop for feeding purposes and increase in its price. Brazil is converting sugarcane juice directly into ethanol. This is leading to less availability of sugar in the world markets. India is planning to grow jatropa on dry lands in a big way. This will lead to less production of bajra and ragi. The diversion of agricultural land to production of bio fuels is leading to an all-round increase in prices of agricultural commodities. Write off loans will truly provide relief to farmers in this situation. They will be relieved of interest burden and benefit from rising prices. Yet, this may not translate into votes for the Congress because large farmers will benefit from this price rise while large number of voters will suffer. Small- and marginal farmers, agricultural labour and urban people buy their food from the market. They will have to pay higher prices for this. The gain in votes from farmers will be more than nullified by loss of votes from these constituencies. Truly, the Congress faces a dilemma. If it pitches for votes of the farmers and allows prices to rise, then it looses the votes of the poorer workers. On the hand, if it keeps the prices low then it looses the votes of the farmers.

The Finance Minister could have adopted a different policy. He should have allowed the prices of agricultural commodities to rise and first secured votes of the farmers. Then he should have got an increase in wages of the workers and alleviated the pain of high food prices. He could have made a scheme of providing low rates of tax on companies that employ large number of workers. Condition can be imposed on government contracts to do works by manual labour rather than by tractors and excavators. Machines that eat away jobs like harvesters could be taxed highly. Such policies would lead to higher demand for labour in the market and to increase in wages of the workers. Presently, the worker buys wheat flour at Rs 12 per kg and earns Rs 100 in a day. He would have no difficulty in buying wheat at Rs 15 per kg if his daily wages rise to Rs 200 per day. Such a policy would reach benefits of high price to the farmers and benefits of high wages to the workers. Unfortunately, the Finance Minister has not faced this contradiction head on and left the matter to the vagaries of the market. My hunch is that we will see a huge increase in prices of food items in the coming months. This will totally undo the political advantage of write off loans.

The fate of myriads of other pro-poor schemes is likely to be no better. The Finance Minister has increased expenditures on education, for example. This is unlikely to beget votes. The government teachers will benefit more and people less. In a survey of schools in Uttarakhand I found that Government teachers were paid salary of Rs 10,000 while private teachers were paid only Rs 2,500 per month. Yet only 23 percent of students in Government Schools were able to solve maths questions against 46 percent in private schools. Clearly, education is suffering not from lack of funds but from lack of competition and accountability in Government schools. This failure of the Government system is being camouflaged by giving out free mid-day meals. It is as if the Government is providing incentives to students to enroll in Government Schools so that they do not pass the exams. People are disillusioned with Government Schools. Increased expenditures on this will not beget votes. The condition of other schemes like Employment Guarantee and Insurance for the unorganized workers will be no better because they all suffer from the same bureaucratic hurdles. The need was to provide education vouchers to the people that they could encash at Government- or private schools. In my assessment, this budget will not beget votes for the Congress if the opposition raises these issues.

Can Maya's Social Engg work?

By Pradeep Kapoor

Chief Minister Mayawati has already taken a lead over other political leaders by addressing rallies in all major state capitals in an attempt to make the BSP's presence felt in other states well before next Lok Sabha polls.

Mayawati has made it clear that her ambition is to become the Prime Minister. The running theme of her speeches has been that if she becomes the Prime Minister, she would implement reservation in the private sector as well.

The BSP supremo has been asking the people of different states to make her Prime Minister to realise their dream for 'sarvjan hitai sarvjan sukhai". She is also keen on expanding the experiment in UP where Brahmins joined hands with Dalits which brought her to power.

She believes that if her party wins around 60 seats in the event of a hung Lok Sabha, she would be a powerful candidate to become the Prime Minister

Political scientists, however, are not sure whether Mayawati would succeed in getting the desired number of seats to achieve her goal.

Prominent political scientists who gathered at Lucknow University recently were of the view that Mayawati has been given a mandate to ensure good governance and inclusive development.

They believe that as the caste equations are different in other states, it would be difficult for Mayawati to repeat the 'social engineering' formula elsewhere.

Prof. Anand Kumar of the Jawaharlal Nehru University(JNU) while participating in a seminar on 'Emerging trends in UP politics" organised by the Political Science Department of Lucknow University, opined that the BSP will have to find a solution to the problems of Bijli, Sadak and Paani fast. She will also have to look into the problems of farmers who would become the main agenda for all political parties.

Commenting on Mayawati's plan to win seats in other states, Prof. Anand Kumar said it was good that after a long gap there was single party government in the state. But much would depend on the development agenda of the government which alone would decide whether she would succeed in other states, too.

Prof Anand Kumar said BSP was supported by upper caste people because they were fed up with corruption and deterioration in law and order situation and not on account of social engineering as is being propagated by certain BSP leaders.

Senior journalist Naveen Joshi said it was a matter of study whether Mayawati succeeded because of any social engineering or owing to the misrule of the Mulayam Singh Yadav government.

Prof. Sudha Pai from JNU, who is known for her work on Dalit politics, said the victory of Mayawati brought the focus back on the development agenda.

She said that there was awakening among the Dalits as was evident from BSP's success in UP polls. Support from upper castes would help Mayawati if she made inclusive development growth the main focus of her government, she added.

Prof. Ramesh Dixit, who is also the state president of NCP, said that there was no social engineering in UP, adding that Mayawati secured the support of upper castes only because they wanted a share in power.

Prof Dixit said Mayawati came to power because she was able to convince to voters that she would make UP a crime-free state.

At the same time, Prof Dixit asked the Chief Minister to remain vigilant against those upper caste people who believe in only getting tickets and not being loyal to the ideology. Such persons could leave the party any time, he warned.

Another prominent scholar from JNU, Joya Hasan, who is known for her research on caste politics in UP, said it would be difficult for Mayawati to keep her social engineering formula intact in the absence of any anti-Brahmin movement in the state. (IPA)

Coalition era in Pak

By Wajid Shamsul Hasan

The announcement by Pakistan Peoples Party's Co-Chairperson Asif Ali Zardari and PML-N's Mian Nawaz Sharif that the two parties would form a national coalition government is another step forward towards completion of Benazir Bhutto's incomplete mission of establishing undiluted democracy in the country with pronounced supremacy of Parliament over all other institutions. There could not be a better tribute to the late leader than this commitment to serve the nation jointly and collectively.

The rulers had killed Bhutto because she had posed a challenge to them with the collective support of the people. She was out there to uproot them to consign them into dustbin of history. The pre-poll rigging, machinations and manipulations by the King's party on the election day, direct campaigning by the retired General in its favour-did deny Bhutto's party a land-slide victory but could not stem Benazir tide in the four provinces giving a clear verdict in her favour by rejecting Musharraf's political boot-lickers and partners in crimes against the nation including frequent rape of the Constitution.

Musharraf never wanted Benazir to return home. He dreaded her. Her very first step on the soil of Pakistan had started rocking his boat. A failed attempt was made on her life that did not deter her from campaigning despite knowing well that her enemies were hell-bent on eliminating her. She, therefore, gave her blood to give a new lease of life to a nation that had been castrated into a deep inertia by oppressive rulers. It was her supreme sacrifice that electrified the masses to take on the General and to defeat him at his own game. The decision by PPP and PML-N to combine their strength to put the final nail in Musharraf's dictatorship is the glorious manifestation of the people's will and nation's democratic aspiration.

When Benazir Bhutto had opted for participation in elections under Musharraf despite opposition of many within her party and total rejection of polls by other political parties including PML-N, she had taken the risk on her firm conviction that masses needed to be given an opportunity to blunt the General's bullets with their ballots. She had complete faith in her people and she believed that dynamics of elections when unleashed in their full fury and wrath-- will surely change the course of his history. She had also successfully convinced Mian Nawaz Sharif to join hands by not boycotting polls.

Despite the fact that she was denied landslide victory yet the triumph of the moderate electoral forces under her leadership has totally altered the future course of history and the electoral dynamics of change have hopefully sounded the death-knell of dictatorship in the country. Had the people not dared to come out to vote due to stage-managed scare generated far and wide in the country, people would have fallen hostage to fear never to raise their head to free themselves from the stranglehold of the dictator.

Benazir Bhutto's most outstanding contribution has been towards dispelling the perception that the majority of people in Pakistan are pro-Taliban and support religious extremism. Her challenge to the Musharraf-hyped rise of Islamic militancy threatening to take over Pakistan's nuclear assets, has taken the wind out of his sails. She shattered the myth so successfully conveyed to the West by Musharraf that if he is removed militants would take over-by offering democracy as an alternate. She took on the religious extremism risking her life leaving the General no other option but to eliminate her. Since she believed in dying for a cause that she had faith in, she took on both the militants and their behind-the-scene perpetrators.

By their overwhelming rejection of the religious parties the masses in the four provinces have also sounded the death-knell for the obscurantist forces that had continuously played a sinister role in cahoots with the Praetorian establishment for subverting genuine democracy. The sweeping rejection of the PML-Q-the King's Party- and the MMA--is an irrefutable indictment of Musharraf and his nine-year long regime and those who collaborated with him.

Pakistan's survival lies in ushering in an egalitarian socio-economic and political order that could ensure greatest good of the largest number with guaranteed equality to all its citizens-irrespective of caste, creed or colour. The February 18 vote was for moderation as championed by Shaheed Bhutto and for an enlightened Islam that professes peaceful co-existence for all religions and communities.

The logical and more so moral outcome of Musharraf's humiliating defeat would have been for him to quit instantly. Thick skinned that he is, analysts believe, he will have to be shown the door in a manner that should discourage all Bonapartists from venturing into playing foul ever again in future with the destiny of the nation. His ultimate impeachment could surely serve as a deterrent.

Battle of the ballot having triumphed over the barrel of the gun, the priority task ahead of the future government would be to get down to finding the real killers of Benazir Bhutto and punishing them-irrespective howsoever powerful they might be. Instantly it shall have to get down to formulating short and long term policies for the alleviation of the sufferings of the masses due to high cost of living, shortages of essential goods, unemployment, lawlessness, creating climate for domestic and foreign investment.

Low performance by Musharraf government has created high expectations among the masses from an elected government as the panacea for all their problems. Though government-in waiting has been left a legacy of an Augean stable to clean sweep, its first and foremost task would be to ensure revival of economic sustenance power of the people depleted to zero level, to establish violence-free society at home and to seek peace with honour externally.

Zardari and Nawaz have to go a long way in tailoring a strong and viable government of national consensus; they have so far sounded the right notes. Zardari's stress on maximum provincial autonomy to the federating units as the key to sustaining Pakistan's integrity and federal structure should form the core fundament for the future when a new social contract is written down. His categorical statement that PPP would talk to even those fighting a war of independence from the Baloch Mountains, give them respect and meet their legitimate demands related to allocation of resources-are surely reassertions in the right direction.

Pakistan's relations with the United States would also be very important. In this context reciprocity should be sought. It is also high time Washington lends its ears to the message so forcefully articulated by the people of Pakistan through the Feb 18 ballot. Bush administrations would do well to endorse the advice of Washington Post (Feb 21) that "The administration should urge its not-so-indispensable ally to step down". (Syndicate Features)

(* a former Pak diplomat based in London)

---Syndicate Features