Has Musharraf lost credibility ?
MEN, MATTERS & MEMORIES

By M L Kotru

Suddenly no one seems to trust President Pervez Musharraf anymore. Not even those who used to swear by his integrity, his unfailing ‘‘commitment’’ and his presumed infalibility. Time was when many of his ilk envied him, his proximity to Kings, Presidents and Prime Ministers. There were many in his own country who believed that he had put the country on the right track; helped its economic growth rate, given it a taste of free press, restored a semblance of order in a disorderly land. The Americans were happy with him, so was Tony Blair and Gordon Brown. Why, even the Saudi King saw him as a most dependable friend.

Then, suddenly, no one is willing to believe in him or all that he was supposed to have stood for. Things must have gone awfully wrong somewhere along the way for the General who shed his uniform to be accepted as a civilian President. Just imagine a twirp of a journalist daring to ask him if he had ‘‘blood on your hands’’ (the blood of Benazir Bhutto). Normally, the soldier's instinct in him should have tempted him to have the man picked up by the scruff of his neck, to be fed to his pet dogs. But no, it was beneath his dignity and the values he cherished to know better than that.

Forget the insolent journalist. You now have Dr Mohammad Al-Bardei, the IAEA boss, issuing some sort of an international red alert, warning the world community of the danger of Pakistan's nuclear arsenal falling into wrong hands. Musharraf's grip over Pakistan, the nuclear watchdog body chief clearly suggested, had weakened and the danger of the 40-odd nuclear warheads currently in the Pakistani arsenal slipping into reckless hands was real. The Americans too had lately come to fear the prospect of a weakened President Musharraf, unable to assert his authority. Not to mention the loss of his acceptability among the Pakistani civil society.

And more frighteningly, Gen Kiyani, the man who succeeded Musharraf when he finally agreed to give up his Army Chief's baton, as the new Chief, has maintained deathly silence even as the castle that Musharraf had built over the past seven years of his military rule was crumbling. Gen. Kiyani, a former ISI chief, considered close to Musharraf and the Americans alike, is yet to reveal his hand even as the President goes ahead with his charade of a general election.

More worrying for Musharraf and the Americans is his failure to put the brakes on the rising tide of jihadist extremism. Suicide attacks by the extremists have become more of a routine and no longer are these confined to the tribal areas. The fatal attack on Benazir, preceded by the failed one in Karachi, was followed by a series of fresh assaults by the Jihadists in most other parts of the country. One is told that the suicide attackers are principally targetting the security forces and the police but that could only be a tactic, if true. The brazen broad daylight attack outside the Lahore High Court, where protesting lawyers were due to congregate for an anti-Musharraf demonstration, left 26 policemen dead, not to mention several civilian casualties including some lawyers as well.

The upsurge in suicide attacks and the growing Talibanis of the country has led many Pakistani analysts to question Musharraf's ability to stem the tide. The more uncharitable of them accuse him of even colluding with the radicals. They accuse him of having encouraged men like Maulana Fazlullah, the pro-Taliban mastermind of the turbulence in Swat, and Baitullah Mehsud, whom Musharraf has now accused of having spreadheaded the killing of Benazir, offering them a peace treaty and an unknown amount of money. That was when Mehsud's men had captured some 200 Army troops. Both Fazlullah and Mehsud have denied any links to the Bhutto killing.

Fazlullah has gone on record to say that ‘‘we have nothing to do with her (Benazir), and her family members know the killers well’’, Fazlullah, also known as the ‘‘FM Maulana’’ for sermons delivered from his illegal radio station, has nevertheless admitted that ‘‘a lot of suicide bombers’’ are ready to launch attacks on selected targets across the country. Baitullah is even more determined to use his West Waziristan base to pursue the Taliban-Al Qaeda agenda of which the cornerstone remains, apart from Talibanization of Pakistan, the liquidation of NATO presence in Afghanistan. The two Taliban leaders continue to see Musharraf as an American stooge willing to do the bidding of his ‘‘American masters’’. Musharraf for his part is willing to counter these charges by issuing a warning to the Americans that should they attempt a unilateral attack on Pakistani territory bordering Afghanistan in pursuit of the Taliban and Al Qaeda leadership he would deem it as an attack on Pakistan. Only he knows what he means by that.

For the record he has also had it said on behalf of his Government that Pakistan would not accept ‘‘conditional US aid under any circumstances’’. Having already received about 14 billion dollars during the last five years as aid to combat terrorism in his part of the world Musharraf has now notified that Pakistan believes that any conditions imposed on ‘‘the very important relationship’’ between it and the US would not be beneficial to their ties. ‘‘In Pakistan decisions won't be taken because somebody demands them. They will be taken according to our own laws and conditions in the country.’’

Brave talk indeed from a man who is suspect in the eyes of his own people as much as he in the US. But then you must remember the Commando in Mr Pervez Musharraf, the General who was forced out of his soldier's uniform, he, like the leopard, can't change his spots, not even in what many would perceive to be a mortal combat.

So Musharraf goes on pushing his luck; an American - prodded reconciliation with Benazir, her house arrest in her home after surviving the first assault on her the day she returned from exile to Karachi and her eventual assassination in Rawalpindi with the General ‘‘identifying’’ the killers even as his troopers were washing up (literally) all the forensic evidence at the site of the suicide attack; Nawaz Sharif sent back into exile, not allowed to leave the Islamabad Airport and again allowed to return home under Saudi American pressure but only to be told he would not be permitted to contest the elections. Musharraf expects that would give this version of the Muslim League (Q) headed by the Chaudhry brothers, the Punjabi, big-time zamindars, a head-start.

Yet, with all the bandobast he and his coterie may have made to rig the Feb 18 election, the retired General is already finding ways to revive old ghosts with George Bush and his lame duck administration in mind. With the pro-American Benazir out of the way what if her successors in the PPP didn't play ball; what if a Nawaz Sharif-led Muslim League were to gain ascendancy in the crucial Punjab province and thence in the National Assembly, the same Sharif who is presumed to be in cahoots with Islamic radicals? Well, Musharraf himself provided the answer; they would have to impeach him and if they tried he would in case go. The worry here is that the Pakistani people, the civil society in particular, are not averse to Musharraf departing from the scene. The worry again will be if Musharraf were to depart from the scene he would leave behind him a Pakistan in total chaos with the radical Talibanist tails up in a country that has known anything but instability ever since the death of the Father of the Pakistani nation, Mohammad Ali Jinnah.

As someone who has always boasted of having more Pakistani friends than I have in Delhi, I find the scene across the border absolutely alarming. Forget me as a person, I do believe that not many Indians would want things in the neighbouring country to go out of control. Unfortunately the ruling establishment in the country appears to be more interested in preserving itself. To end, I quote a well-known Pakistani analyst who only last week, while summing up the prevailing situation in his country said: ‘‘The purpose of pointing out this (uncertainty in his country post-Benazir assassination) record is not to further inflame passions that have erupted since Benazir Bhutto's assassination. It is to point out to Pakistan's arrogant establishment that its credibility problem is deeply rooted and is of its own making. If it really wants to set things right, forget about clever statements and smart TV interviews. Repair the damage by facing and telling the truth’’. I for one do not trust Musharraf's capacity to face or tell the truth. He has too many skeletons to hide, credibility be blown.