EDITORIAL
Tell-tale figures
If one goes
by official figures one finds a certain degree of unease
about peace on the Line of Control and the International
Border in the State. The Union Home Ministry, for
instance, believes: "Despite assurances by Pakistan
that their soil will not be used for training of
terrorists, there has been no let-up in cross-border
terrorism. Trained terrorists are still being pushed in
equipped with modern weaponry." It estimates that
499 terrorists have infiltrated into the State till
October last year. Considering that the statistics for
the last three months of the year are yet to be compiled
the number compares somewhat favourably with the total of
573 in 2006 and 597 in 2005. Given the current emphasis
on mutual bonhomie between the two neighbouring
countries, it sounds rather shocking that as many as 23
Army personnel have "laid down their lives"
till November 28, 2007. Making matters worse is the
continuing inflow of weapons. During the last three years
"over 4000 illegal weapons, including AK-47 rifles,
pistols/revolvers, UMGs (Uber machineguns)/LMGs (light
machineguns), rocket launchers/boosters and huge
quantities of ammunition and explosives/ IEDs (improvised
explosive devices), have been recovered" in the
State. These items are in addition to "around 450
kilograms" of narcotics/heroin, suspected to have
been sourced from Pakistan, which have been seized in
Jammu and Kashmir and Punjab sectors during the same
period. Nevertheless, a perusal of Parliamentary papers
reveals the Central Government's confidence about the
prevailing situation in the State "in terms of the
number of terrorist incidents and casualties" that
have declined. There have been 1033 terrorist-related
incidents in the State till November 26, 2007. By and
large these have thus witnessed a gradual decline: their
number has been 4536 (in 2001), 4038 (2002), 3401(2003)
2565 (2004), 1990 (2005) and 1997 (2006). Between January
1, 2005 and October 31, 2007, as many as 1085 civilians
have been killed in these occurrences their yearly
break-up being: 557 (in 2005), 389 (2006) and 139 (up to
October, 2007). The corresponding numbers of security
personnel who have made supreme sacrifice are: 189, 151
and 95. The terrorists killed are: 917, 593 and 411,
respectively.
It will be
perfectly in order to cite some of the Union Government's
observations with respect to "main facets" of
terrorism in the State and the country as a whole. It
informs: "Arms are being smuggled from across the
border and from one state to another within the country
by militants/terrorists/anti-national elements including
those active in J&K and the North-East."
Moreover, "terrorist activities in J&K are being
carried out by terrorist outfits based, and sponsored
from across the border in Pakistan. Some of these
terrorist groups, such as LeT (Lashkar-e-Toiba), JeM
(Jaish-e-Mohammad), HUJI (Harkat-ul-Jihad-al-Islami) etc
have also been involved in incidents of terrorist
violence in some parts of the hinterland with the
apparent help of some local elements. Linkages of such
groups with terrorist organisations in Bangladesh like
HUJAI (Harkat-ul-Jihad-al-Islami, Bangladesh) and
organised criminals groups have also come to
notice." The North Block is convinced: "Some of
the groups involved in insurgency and terrorist violence
in the North-Eastern states are also reportedly receiving
support from, and have links with various terrorist
organisations and elements outside the country." The
terror attacks in the "hinterland" include the
one on the Ramjanmabhoomi-Babri Masjid complex; blast in
Shramjeevi Express, suicide attack on the office of the
Additional DCP (Task Force), Hyderabad; serial bomb
blasts in Delhi on the eve of Diwali; firing at Indian
Institute of Science, Bangalore; bomb blasts at Varanasi,
serial explosions in local trains in Mumbai, blasts at
Malegaon, explosions in Samjhautha Express, bomb
explosions at Mecca Mosque, Hyderabad; blasts at Lumbini
Park and Gokul Chat Bhandar, Hyderabad; blast at Dargarh
of Ajmer Sharif, blast in Shringar cinema hall in
Ludhiana and blasts in court premises in Lucknow,
Faizabad and Varanasi (Uttar Pradesh). The list has since
lengthened with this week's attack on a Central Reserve
Police Force (CRPF) camp in Rampur (UP).
With this
background in view, there can only be one conclusion: the
situation is challenging. So far as the Government is
concerned it is striving to overcome the menace through a
multi-pronged strategy. It "is willing to talk to
all those groups who agree to abjure violence." On
the security front it is following the necessary drill by
deploying forces and guarding vital installations. It has
taken up with concerned countries like Bangladesh,
Myanmar and Pakistan the issue of the existence of
militant training camps and the terrorism infrastructure
on their soil. It is equally concerned about the
induction of fake Indian currency notes "with the
support of established channels and external
elements." One feels encouraged by the fact that all
political parties are unanimous in getting rid of the
evil. Off and on their leaders and workers are called
upon to pay heavy price for their courage of conviction.
Of course, the ordinary masses suffer immensely and the
normal life often gets disrupted. The experience in the
State shows that together we can defeat them. All of us
need to continue our good work in that direction.
Ladoo or
laddu?
Call it ladoo
or laddu it will taste sweet. It is possibly
the most popular sweet not only in our State but the
country as a whole. We like it so much that we don't feel
shy of calling a child "ladoo Gopal"
after Krishna. Almost invariably it is of small size. It
is only on special occasions that we have it in enormous
dimensions. No wonder Deputy Chief Minister Mangat Ram
Sharma has celebrated New Year by "cutting" one
with a weight of 500 kilograms at a political function.
We know Tirupati laddu as prasad of Lord
Venkateshwara. There are other variants of ladoo as well:
motichoor, boondi, besan, aata,
rava, til, churma, bandaru
(in a part of Andhra Pradesh), kunja (in parts of
Tamil Nadu) and ramdana (from Uttar Pradesh). We
like to share it at all our celebrations whether personal
or religious. This city is no exception. Besides being a
city of temples it is a city of sweets as well with patisa
and desi variety of chocolate making our mouths
water. The feeling is further heightened by the knowledge
that Dogri is a melodious language. Surely all of us have
heard the song: "Sweet is the language of Jammu and
sweet are its people." In politics, however, ladoo
has a different connotation. It is described in terms of
power. This is the misfortune of the political class.
Despite huge ladoos it remains hungry.
New
year challenges for NDA,
UPA
By
Arun Nehru
Security
is our major issue for
2008 and I can never tire
from writing on this
issue for the past year.
Events in Pakistan are
'tragic' and can anyone
realistically predict the
course chaos and
confusion in the next few
weeks? Dictators
supported by guns and
bullets cannot ensure
political longevity and
after arresting the
Supreme court judges,
muzzling the media and
planning a 'sham'
election we are
confronted with a tragedy
as former PM Benazir
Bhutto is killed [there
are three versions given
in 36 hours, gunshot
wounds, shrapnel, roof
lever?]. The 'conspiracy'
theory will gain ground
as the General has lost
all credibility and the
USA which had brokered
the 'elections' have
limited options as the
situation in Iraq and
Afghanistan deteriorates
and President Bush has
limited support for his
initiatives within the
power structure in the
USA. Things are very
difficult and there are
no simplistic solutions
available in the short
term. We wish the people
of Pakistan well but we
have to protect our
interests and by past
experience we know that
insecure leaders are
prone to 'political
accidents'. Terror
networks thrive on
political uncertainty and
we can expect serious
problems from 'sleeper
units' within the
country.
The
Congress suffer a
electoral defeat in
Himachal Pradesh and this
was no surprise. Anti
incumbency trends
reinforced by internal
dissent and serious
corruption charges and a
strong leader in former
CM Prem Kumar Dhumal who
led the BJP election
campaign were the major
factors for the result.
The New Year is upon us
and time for both the
Congress and the BJP to
take stock of the
situation and whilst the
UPA in theory will have
larger numbers than the
NDA the reality may be
very different as
alliance partners will
play musical chair's and
we have four independent
formations [BSP, AIDMK,
TDP, TC] who can win in
excess of 100 seats
between them and can
align with each other or
with anyone else at any
stage dependant on the
group's ability to form a
government at the Center.
The verdict in Karnataka
in favor of the Congress
will help the party to
create the psychological
advantage for the future
and will assist in
achieving success in the
Assembly elections in MP,
Rajasthan, Chattisgarh
towards the end of
2008.The BJP have much to
do to beat the anti
incumbency trends in
these three states and on
current trends they stand
to lose all three by
decisive margins. Things
can change and nothing
can be taken for granted
in a uncertain situation.
Integrity, economic
growth and development
are all important factors
but so is National
security and on this
issue the UPA is very
vulnerable.
The
BSP can win in excess of
50 seats and besides
40=45 seats in UP they
will pose a serious
threat to the Congress in
the Northern states in
particular and almost
everywhere in the country
and this will help the
BJP and the Regional
parties. Mayawati and the
BSP will increase their
vote share from the
current level of 5% to
7-8% and I don't think
any formation at the
Center can function
without her party. J
Jayalalitha and the AIDMK
will sweep Tamil Nadu and
can win 25-30 seats and
Chanda Babu Naidu can win
a equal number in Andhra
Pradesh and these trends
may intensify in 2008.
The CPI[M] can lose 10-15
seats to Mamata Banerjee
and the TC who forms a
'secular' front without
either the BJP or the
Congress has yet to do a
great deal of work to
succeed against the CM
Buddhadev Bhattacharya.
These four can win
100-110 seats and will
lean towards any group
opposed to the Congress.
The political system is
in election mode and as
things stand we will see
new alliances and
arrangements in several
states. Haryana and the
Congress suffers a blow
as Bhajan Lal and his
family leave the Congress
but leave a 'foot' in the
door for a possible
reconciliation and as
things stand OP Chauthala
routed in the last
election stands a good
chance for revival. The
Congress in Maharashtra
with 48 seats are in
trouble and 'change' is
in the air! The Shiv Sena
/BJP combination have
consolidated their
position as internal
dissent and defections
have not really made a
difference and look to a
greater share of seats in
the future. Sharad Pawar
and the NCP have a great
deal of thinking for the
future. The NCP have 9
seats and I don't see any
increase in this number
if they fight with the
Congress or make a
arrangement with the
BJP/Shiv Sena but Sharad
Pawar if convinced that
the trends are adverse
for the Congress after
the year end Assembly
elections in the BJP
states may well deciede
to follow the example of
the AIDMK/TDP/TC/BSP and
his options open for the
future. The Congress are
aware of the situation
and if Vilas Rao Deshmukh
is changed with Sushil
Shinde it may end the
internal dissent after
four years of governance
but will not help the
anti incumbency factor.
Maharashtra is very
vulnerable and if Gujarat
has any effect in any
state it will be visible
in a large measure in
this state. National
security is a major issue
in the state and the
rhetoric of Narender Modi
can be lethal. Assam and
if the AGP/BJP were to
align the Congress would
be in serious trouble.
The
year 2008 will not be
easy for any party and we
will see constant
political activity
through the year as
political parties fight
for survival and
political longevity. We
will witness several
political gymnastics as
the trends for 2009
become evident and in all
this turmoil it would be
unfortunate if the reform
process were to suffer
and the government comes
under pressure of the
Left. 2007 have revived
the BJP and now it is the
turn of the Congress in
2008 to reverse the trend
in Karnataka [tough
fight] and then to
capitalize on the anti
incumbency trends in MP,
Rajasthan and
Chattisgarh.
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 BJP
buoyed with success
By
Sondip Bhattacharya
Buoyed
by the landslide victory
in Himachal Pradesh less
than a week after its
stunning performance in
Gujarat, the BJP believes
the "wave of
change" that started
in 2007 will climax with
the ouster of the
Congress-led government
at the Centre as and when
the parliamentary
elections are held-in
2008 or as scheduled in
2009. The leaders are
already describing the
trend as "NDA's
comeback trail" and
"the beginning of
the countdown for UPA's
exit".
The
BJP leadership is
explaining these
victories in terms of
people's disenchantment
with the Congress
primarily on two counts:
failure to combat
terrorism and failure to
provide good governance.
The leader of Opposition,
Mr. L.K. Advani,
attempted to link both
the state elections to
the Centre, arguing that
the issues that
influenced the outcome
were largely national.
Soon
after the Himachal
results were out, Advani
said: "The results
of Gujarat and Himachal
Pradesh should be seen in
the context of the
rapidly growing
unpopularity of the UPA
government at the Centre,
which has failed on all
fronts. The people of
India are eagerly looking
for liberation from this
non-performing
government, which is not
a coalition but a bundle
of contradictions."
Advani
claimed that apart from
the main planks of
Narendra Modi's good
governance in Gujarat and
the Congress government's
corruption in Himachal
Pradesh, what affected
the voters were the
robust anti-terror
approach of the Gujarat
government and the rising
prices of essential
commodities in Himachal.
Since terror and
inflation fell in the
Centre's domain the
results reflected the
people's rejection of the
central government's
policies.
Pro-incumbency
in Gujarat and
anti-incumbency in
Himachal clearly showed
the people had turned
against the Congress. As
it is the six elections
held in 2007, the BJP won
four states-Punjab,
Uttarakhand, Gujarat and
Himachal. While Uttar
Pradesh went to the
Bahujan Samaj Party, the
Congress had to be
content with only Goa.
The BJP may do well in
the next election in
Karnataka, where the
party had become victim
to the "betrayal of
a venal of political
opportunism" despite
becoming the single
largest party in the last
election. But the real
test for BJP will come
next year when state
assembly elections are
held in Rajasthan, Madhya
Pradesh and Chhattisgarh.
The
Himachal victory is also
significant as the party
showed its capability of
uniting warring factions
led by Mr. Prem Kumar
Dhumal and Shanta Kumar.
It is rare to find such
understanding among
Congress leaders, who
work at cross-purposes
even for elections.
However,
the Congress's bigger
worry was not so much the
loss of Himachal as the
fact that the BJP was
pocketing one state after
another in the west and
the north. With Himachal,
the BJP-NDA rules 10
states, one short of the
Congress, from Gujarat in
the west to Punjab,
Himachal, Rajasthan,
Chhattisgarh, Uttarakhand
and Madhya Pradesh in the
north and north-central,
Bihar in the east and
Nagaland and Mizoram in
the North-east. In the
north, the Congress-UPA
has only three small
states: Haryana,
Jharkhand and Delhi.
While
creditable, the BJP's
victories in Gujarat and
Himachal Pradesh do not
by themselves lend
themselves to the
proposition mooted by Mr.
Lal Krishna Advani that
the party is on the
comeback trail, at least
not for the reasons he
offers. There is no such
thing as a pan-Indian
thread binding voters,
and poll fortunes for at
least the past two
decades have been decided
by considerations that
are essentially local,
and seldom national. Mr.
Advani knows Indian
politics well enough to
realise that. He would
therefore be well advised
to focus on his party's
alliances, to ensure that
those within the NDA
remain there, a task made
easier by the recent
electoral successes, and
to woo those who may be
on the brink.
As
for the BJP is concerned,
for nearly 30 months,
from the tail-end of the
2004 general election
campaign, the saffron
brigade seemed almost
incapable of doing
anything right. Its
leaders got themselves
mired in the unlikeliest
of controversies and
scandals; its suraksha
yatra and umpteen
"nationwide"
agitations fell flat; its
parliamentary
interventions were
infantile and
ineffective. For much of
this year, while secular
activists confronted
their own impending
redundancy, the
chattering classes began
penning the BJP's
obituary. Hindu
nationalism, we were
informed by those whose
judgments matter in the
right places, was just an
ephemeral blip in the
radar of history. By the
third quarter of 2006, it
was conventional wisdom
in 'respectable' circles
that the BJP's return to
the fringes was
inevitable. "The
right wing will persist
but it's all over for the
BJP," a CPM
politburo member
pronounced sombrely at a
dinner around Diwali. The
select gathering of the
Delhi Establishment
nodded in agreement.
For
the moment, the BJP has
been presented with
issues which could
potentially consolidate a
dissipated Hindu vote. To
this can be added the
social tensions generated
by the escalating crisis
in agriculture and the
discontent of those who
believe they have not
benefited from the
post-liberalization boom.
In a curious sort of way,
the UPA government may
well be facing the very
same problems which led
to the BJP's unexpected
defeat in 2004. Like the
Congress, which took
advantage of the creeping
anti-incumbency without
having to take any
programmatic initiatives,
the BJP just has to keep
chipping away at the
government without having
to be bothered about
either consistency or
history. Thus, it can
repay the Congress for
its post-Pokhran-II
cussedness by being
bloody-minded about the
Indo-US nuclear
understanding. It can
also do to the West
Bengal government in
Singur what the
left-Medha Patkar
combination did to the
Gujarat government over
Narmada.
Between
1991 and 1996, the BJP
broke the mould by
espousing an alternative
vision of India. Today's
BJP is, of course,
repeating some of those
old formulations before a
generation to whom
Ayodhya is history. Its
main thrust, however, is
to fulfil the primary
role of the Opposition in
a parliamentary
democracy-to oppose for
its own sake. Fortunately
for it, the broad themes
of opposition is music to
its committed following
and the ideological
ombudsmen in Nagpur. In
politics, there is
nothing like frenzied
activity to distract
attention from internal
problems. The BJP has a
host of unresolved issue
which has been agitating
its natural
supporters-the leadership
question being paramount.
The government's mid-term
mishaps have provided a
convenient diversion from
questions that warrant
introspection and debate
to campaigns that demand
sloganeering. If the
every growing whisper
today-the media is always
late to pick up the
buzz-is that the National
Democratic Alliance could
be back in 2009, it is
because the BJP is
playing by the
well-crafted rules of
expediency. Maybe that's
what the astrologers
deemed all along. INAV
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Subdued
optimism in 2008
By
S Sethuraman
India
enters 2008, amid
regional and global
turmoils, with subdued
optimism on the economic
front and formidable
challenges to overcome in
making growth inclusive.
But instability in
international financial
markets since August last
has slowed down US
growth, which has driven
world economy so far, to
near-recession. The
unprecedented rise in
oil, food and other
commodity prices is
already exerting
pressures on global
inflation. These factors
could adversely affect
demand for exports from
and capital flows to the
dynamic Asian region.
These negative
developments are unlikely
to be reversed in 2008.
Unabated
civil conflicts around
the world, hunger,
malnutrition and
epidemics in developing
country regions,
especially in Africa and
South Asia, and problems
of energy supply and
environment protection
have crowded the global
agenda highlighting the
inadequate and
ineffective responses of
the international
community so far to these
daunting problems. Richer
nations have mostly
failed to fulfil pledges
of assistance to the
developing world,
sub-Saharan Africa in
particular, while poor
governance and corruption
in developing countries
have aborted spread of
gains of development. The
world lacks a
forward-looking agenda to
grapple with these
critical issues.
The
United Nations Millennium
Development Goals for
2015 - halving the number
of extreme poor and
raising the health status
of hundreds of millions
along with universal
literacy - look
impossible to achieve to
a substantial extent,
especially in both Africa
and South Asian region,
without internal peace,
aid flows and improved
governance. Lack of
requisite support and
contributions from the
international community
have also weakened the UN
efforts at resolving
conflicts and
peace-building even as
natural disasters and
growing terrorism are
exacting human toll on a
large scale.
The
only area where some hope
was left at the end of
2007 was tackling climate
change through a two-year
negotiating process among
over 150 nations
participating in the UN
Framework Convention on
Climate Change to work
out a new regime of
mandated reductions of
carbon emissions in the
atmosphere to follow the
Kyoto Protocol which
expires in 2012. The Bush
Administration remains
opposed to mandatory cuts
in emissions which, it
says, would have to be
equally applicable to
major developing country
emitters.
The
war in Iraq, launched by
President Bush, in March
2003 has failed in its
objectives of promoting
democracy or containing
terrorism, despite the
loss of some 4,000
American troops and
billions of dollars spent
on restoring order while
Iraqi casualties were
estimated at not less
than 100,000. Similarly,
the US-led military
intervention in 2001 in
Afghanistan has not
succeeded in removing the
serious threat of Taliban
extremists re-taking
power from the fragile
democratic regime under
President Karzai, whose
writ does not run beyond
Kabul.
Pakistan,
with massive military and
economic aid from USA,
has equally failed to
tame the Taliban and al
Qaeda extremist forces,
which have begun to
operate inside its
territory. Political
chaos in Pakistan under
President Musharraf, who
suspended the
constitution, for
personal power, and the
assassination of the most
popular political leader
Benazir Bhutto as she was
in the midst of
electioneering, have
raised grave
uncertainties about the
future of the second
largest economy in South
Asia.
The
housing market crisis in
USA, as a result of the
sub-prime mortgage
lending, and billions of
dollars of losses of
banks have shaken the
world financial markets.
Sorting out the mess to
restore even a semblance
of orderly functioning of
these markets will not be
feasible for several
months to come. Consumer
confidence in USA has
weakened and affected
retail sales which
account for two-thirds of
the American economy. It
will also affect external
demand for cheaper goods
such as provided by
China, which ran a bigger
trade surplus vis-à-vis
USA at over 230 billion
dollars in 2007.
Faster
growth in emerging
markets of Asian region,
specially China and
India, are helping to
avert a global recession.
These powerhouses may not
entirely escape the
spill-over effects of the
continuing global market
instability or actions of
central banks to contain
inflation. International
oil prices surged through
2007 to reach 97 dollars
a barrel on the last
working day of the year.
While
US stock markets wobbled
over the last three
months, Asian emerging
markets boomed and
India's Sensex crossed
the 20,000 mark. India
also registered record
capital inflows and
equity raisings in 2007
with continuing investor
interest in the growth
potential of the economy.
Capital flows have grown
considerably during 2007
in the form of foreign
investments, direct and
portfolio, and external
commercial borrowings.
While increased invisible
receipts (net) help to
narrow current account
deficit, the surpluses on
capital account are
boosting the reserves.
In
2007-08, the reserves
increased by 48 billion
dollars in the first half
and by the second week of
December, the level of
reserves stood at 272
billion dollars or an
addition of 73 billion
dollars since March. But
the rapid rise in
external commercial
borrowings besides short
term credits, NRI
deposits etc, are
increasing the debt
liabilities of the
country.
Independent
assessments of the
outlook for India in 2008
see a slowdown
inevitable, though not
significant. But the
Finance Minister Mr
Chidambaram has been
striking a note of high
confidence that growth in
the current fiscal would
be 9 per cent (higher
than the 8 to 8.5 per
cent projected by
different agencies and
RBI). At the same time,
he does not minimize the
risks during 2008 from
the external financial
market turbulence as more
and more financing
institutions report their
exposure to mortgage
lending and from
inflation fuelled by
international food prices
and if retail prices of
petroleum products are
revised, though this is
politically unpopular.
While
India has the advantage
of its economy driven
more by domestic demand
than of China, the
prospects for 2008/09
also depend on how well
agriculture fares in the
coming year. Agricultural
output and prices would
have a bearing on the
overall growth of the
economy at a time when
there is some visible
deceleration in industry.
.
Above
all, the political
atmosphere in 2008 will
determine whether India
could push ahead with
essential reforms to
facilitate higher growth
of the economy along with
larger public
investments. Being a
penultimate year before
elections in 2009,
demands and expectations
will mount for
business-friendly and
pro-poor budget with
giveaways and subsidies
left untouched.
The
Congress party, which
leads the UPA Coalition,
is going through an
agonizing self-appraisal
of where it is going
wrong, after the
successive defeats in
Gujarat and Himachal
Pradesh. With more state
elections due in 2008,
the Party may prefer to
avoid risky ventures and
radical policies and
instead build on
programmes capable of
yielding political
dividends. (IPA)
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