Can Musharraf call it a day ?

By Fazal Mehmood

President Pervez Musharraf has been isolated following three big political parties, Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP), Pakistan Muslim League (PML-Nawaz Sharif) and ANP, moving towards forming a new government, ending all hope of an alliance with Pakistan Muslim League (PML-Qaid-e-Azam), the party floated by Musharraf. Although the crucial meeting between Asif Ali Zardari and Nawaz Sharif failed to resolve their differences over the restoration of the sacked judges and the fate of Musharraf, the two leaders for now would focus on staying together and forming a Government. A proposal has been mooted to have a broad-based coalition Government including smaller parties like the Awami National Party and the Sindh-based Mohajir Quami Movement.

As the internal pressure mounts on President Musharraf to call it a day following the electoral defeat of his party, his patrons in Washington don't want him to be thrown out of power. At one stage Zardari was asked to dump Nawaz Sharif and join hands with Musharraf to form a Government with the support of the smaller parties. President Musharraf has reopened an old corruption case against Zardari, and government lawyers urged a court in Geneva to prosecute him on charges of stashing $55 million in kickbacks in a Swiss bank account in 1998. There is also an overt and covert threat to scrap the National Reconciliation Ordinance (NRO).

PPP and PML(N) together have 153 seats with votes counted in 258 out of 272 constituencies. Asfandyar Wali Khan's ANP has 10 and Altaf Husain's MQM 19 seats in the new parliament.

Pakistan may move closer to democracy when the new Government takes office in the coming days, but the lawyers are not looking forward to that. They have already decided to launch a nation-wide movement that will turn into a march on March 9 to Islamabad if the sacked Supreme Court judges are not reinstated by then.

The present Pakistan army chief, General Kayani, was the chief of the Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) from 2004 to 2007 and was the hatchet man of Musharraf in running the elaborate deception. The present predicament of a revived Taliban in both Afghanistan and Pakistan, a turbulent tribal belt and a rejuvenated Al-Qaida leadership is thanks to the double-crossing of Musharraf and the ISI. During this period, cronyism between the diplomatic, intelligence and military establishments of the US and their Pakistani counterparts led to Washington looking away from the war on terrorism being sabotaged by the ISI and placing all its bets on Musharraf.

Given this background, the following interests will play crucial roles in the emerging political configuration in Pakistan: first, the army's corporate interests; second, the Punjabi interests; third, Washington's perceptions of their interest as differentiated from US national interests; and finally, the individual interests of leaders like Zardari and Sharif. In 1970-71, Bhutto's ambition to become the ruler of a split Pakistan played a crucial role in shaping future developments.

Since demography would not allow him to become the ruler of a united Pakistan, he chose partition of Pakistan (as Jinnah did before him) than to promote the interests and welfare of a united Pakistan. At that time the Pakistan army and Bhutto depended on the US and Chinese support for their unleashing of the genocide and the ethnic cleansing of 10 million Bangladeshis. Now also, the army and the political grouping that is allowed assuming power in Pakistan will depend on US support to chart their further course.

The exit of Musharraf, which seems to be inevitable, does not necessarily mean that Pakistan will be launching on a new democratic path. It might not even result in the restoration of judges. What would really demonstrate Pakistan starting its journey on a democratic path is for the civil Government to take charge of the ISI and thoroughly purge it. The government must also exercise adequate control over the defence forces' corporate interests to ensure that the army does not continue to be a super state within the state.

The terrorists comprise followers of Al Qaida, Lashkar-e-Toiba and other groups that are united in service of a common cause. To widen their base among the fundamentalists they play on anti-US sentiments by capitalizing on each blunder by the Bush administration and by the Pakistan Government. The terrorists are spread across Pakistan's tribal belt and in Afghanistan. They comprise Pashtuns recruited by the Taliban, and foreign mercenaries commanded by Al Qaida. It was within these complex conditions that Musharraf, directed by western powers, was expected to eliminate terrorism and turn Pakistan into a full-fledged democracy.

It is difficult to conceive of any arrangement ensuring durable peace without providing self-rule and non-interference in the daily lives of the Pashtun community spread across Pakistan and Afghanistan. And one can conceive of only one arrangement that does not alter present international borders: an arrangement that involves formation in South Asia of an EU-style union.

India can take the initiative to facilitate such a formation. India for its own security has a huge stake in a stable and democratic Pakistan. The problem of ethnic communities divided by international borders bequeathed by imperialism applies as much to Kashmir as to the Federally Administered Territorial Area (FATA) in Pakistan. An Indian gesture on Kashmir and an initiative to broker agreement between Afghanistan and Pakistan would perhaps be more acceptable than intervention by the US or UK. The threat of terrorism affects India, Pakistan and Afghanistan. The enemy against all three nations is united. Cannot the governments of these nations unite to fight the enemy?

Can Musharraf do a Gorbachev? The former Soviet leader who was a creature and beneficiary of the old communist apparatus rose to the very top only to initiate the process of ideological erasure and collective redemption. Musharraf and the Pakistani army have to begin the catharsis that will help Pakistan in its transition and this election may be their last opportunity. Myopic well-wishers in the US and elsewhere should not queer the pitch. The yearning of the Pakistani people to be politically emancipated from the oppression of the jackboot is more palpable now than ever before and February 18 elections bear testimony to their fortitude. INAV

Indo-US defence corporation

By Brig. (Retd.) S.N. Sachadeva

The Left's strident opposition has not sapped the government's enthusiasm for proceeding with the logistics support agreement with the US. The issue as well as the expansion of US military sales to India are expected to figure prominently during the two-day visit of defence secretary Robert Gates to India from February 26. Mr. Robert Gates is expected to review strategic cooperation with India in his talks with Defence Minister A.K. Antony. Mr. Gates, who will be accompanied by a 50-member military-cum-business delegation, will call on Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and External Affairs Pranab Mukherjee. Under the logistics support agreement, the two countries will provide their bases, fuel and other kinds of logistical support to each other's fighters and warships. But the still resistance from the Left has been holding up a Cabinet approval for the agreement. CPM general secretary Prakash Karat has been arguing that the agreement will make India a party to America's wrong designs. During Mr. Gates' visit, the two sides are also expected to discuss the Container Security Initiative (CSI), which India is ready to sign.

US may have cornered around 40 per cent of the global arms market but it's still a minor player when it comes to India. Appetites whetted by the recent $1 billion C-130J Super Hercules aircraft deal, US armament majors are now aggressively homing into the lucrative Indian market.

Big armament players, of course, are falling over each other to come to India, with several even setting up India offices in recent times, since there are rich pickings to be made. Take the military aviation sector. The first leg of the 'mother of all defence deals', the $10.4 billion project to acquire 126 multi-role combat fighters for IAF, will conclude in first week of March, with six foreign aviation majors submitting their technical and commercial bids.

India is also hunting for 317 'light' helicopters for IAF and Army in a project worth over $2.5 billion, which like the fighter project will involve indigenous production with transfer of technology as well. The combined global tender for the helicopters is being issued shortly.

The 185 wheeled self-propelled howitzers that the army is now seeking also have to be small and light enough to be airlifted-preferably in the Lockheed Martin-produced Hercules C-130J aircraft that the Indian Air Force decided to buy in January. This specification has come out of the Indian Army's experience in the 1999 Kargil war, where artillery guns were in short supply along the front initially.

The price of the guns will be decided based on the bids but is estimated to be upwards of Rs. 4,500 crore. The army may also be in the market for an additional 400 towed howitzers-the same variety as the Bofors guns that are already in service.

The army was also at that time considering self-propelled guns mounted on tracked chassis-like in tanks-but has now decided on wheeled chassis only. The exact number of competitors who have been invited to bid for the order is not disclosed, but US is one of the bidders.

But army sources said they were well-known companies. There are few companies capable of making the guns with the general specifications of the guns that are known. Among them are the K9 Thunder (South Korea), BAE Systems (Bofors), Slovakian firm Kermetal's Zuzana, French Giat Industries' Caesar, German Rheinmetall's Panzerhaubitze 2000, Israeli Atmos 2000 and Israeli Soltam's TIG 2000.

The original field artillery rationalisation plan envisaged that the army would have a mix of 3,600 ultra-light, wheeled, tracked and towed guns-all of 155mm/52calibre-for around 180 artillery regiments. But the execution of that plan has got delayed.

Usually contracts of such high value from India remain years in the making. The "Herc deal" demonstrates not only a willingness from India to source more platforms from the US, a non-traditional supplier, but also that the Government can cut down on delays when it wants to.

India is set to liberalise its weapons purchase policy to bolster domestic defence manufacturers by opening more avenues for foreign investment, but anti-corruption crusaders fear the "offsets" programme to guide it would encourage underhand deals. According to defence production secretary Pradeep Kumar the Government will come out with a revised Defence Procurement Policy by April. At the core of the changes this year is likely to be an offsets clause that will allow foreign suppliers to reinvest in the defence sector a part of the amounts for contracted acquisitions.

The revised DPP 2008 will guide, for example, the offsets programme for the biggest arms deal for which India has invited bids-an estimated $10.2 billion (Rs. 42,000 crore) for 126 multi-role combat aircraft for the air force.

The six bidders for the IAF order-Lockheed Martin (F-16 Fighting Falcon), Boeing (F/A 18-E/F Superhornet), RSK Mig Corporation (MiG 35), Dassault Aviation (Rafale), Saab, Sweden, (JAS 39 Gripen); and a European consortium (Eurofighter Typhoon)-have to submit the technical bids for their aircraft by March 3. But they have until June 30 to state how they will plough back 50 per cent of the contracted amount as offsets into the Indian defence industry. The policy will not, however, allow indirect offsets-which means a provision that will allow ploughing back funds into other sectors of industry apart from defence.

The defence ministry has set up a separate body-the Defence Offsets Facilitation Agency (Dofa)-to keep a watch over an estimated $6 billion in offsets that government officials expect in five years but industry is circumspect about. The DPP 2008 is likely to permit "banking of defence offsets" that will allow suppliers to reinvest in the defence projects not directly related to their contract. For instance, the winner of the IAF order may not have to necessarily invest 50 per cent in the related business of servicing the order but may choose to put funds into other military projects for India. There will be a "no-bribery" clause in defence contracts.

India opened its private industry for investment in the defence sector in 2001. But its growth has been tardy. The DPP 2008 will want to give it a fillip by encouraging-and this has defence public sector units worried-foreign contractors to negotiate offsets with private enterprises. INAV

Dismal development

By Sunita Vakil

The latest unicef report paints a very despairing picture of India's public health system.

The proof of the pudding lies in its eating . Despite the fact that India has had the integrated child development scheme in place since 1975, Unesco's 2008 report presents an astonishingly mortifying picture of infant and child mortility the country. According to the report, India has the single largest number of infant deaths in the world.

The UNICEF report says that of a nearly 10 million children dying before their fifth birthday more than 2 million are Indians.This constitutes 21 percent of the total deaths globally, an indicator that should set off alarm bells ringing. UN officials say that though child mortality rates have come down over the last 15 years, India needs to take immediate notice and start working to achieve the UN goals in infant death reduction.Gianni Murzi, the UNICEF representative to India told reports in New Delhi a few days back that India has to do more in order to reduce child mortality rates. " We still have some way to go and the pace of achievement need to increase over the next year. The world without India will not make the development goals, therefore there is a need for accelerating int he country this pace" Mr Murzi is reported to have said. That about 20 percent of the infants die within the first hour of their birth and another 30 percent within 28 days reflects India's abysmal performance when it comes to providing healthcare to the under previleged on top of that, 46 percent of those who survive suffer from malnutrition. Every third underweight child in the world in the below five catagory is unmistakably an Indian. This terribly embarrasing picture depicting the plight of children in India is a true indicator of the messy state of Public healthcare in the country. The real shock lies in the fact that notwithstanding our relative superior economy, we have fallen behind countries like Ethiopia, Eritria and Bangladesh, the countries whose economy is in shambles, in reducing infant mortality.

That the Government is openly flaunting hight economic growth when it has fallen so woefully short in providing a better quality of life to the people is indeed a matter of shame. No. doubt, many policies and programmes for children llike integrated child development scheme, Midday meal scheme and supplementary nutrition programme have been in place for many years. But the main problem lies in their implementation. One may well ask, how many of these have got translated into actual benefit on the ground for our children ? Though the Prime Minister , an eminent economist himself, has often talked about "inclusive growth" but has lacked the political will to decipher the same into tangible help for the welfare of the people. Therefore, what accounts for such dismal development indicators is the fact that governance today has become synonymous with votebank politics. Compounding the problem is the fact that such serious issues get highlighted only at the time of elections in order to tell off the political opponents. And that is that . The politicians who lose no time to jump at each other's throats for gaining an electoral point do not show the same alacrity when its comes to actually working for some significant change for the underpriviledged. Also, there are added problems of rampant corruption that is eating into the vitals of our government establishment, bureaucracy and civil society. The recent world bank report exposing causes of corruption in five health sector projects, dealing with the eradication of Tuberculosis, Malaria and HIV/AIDS is a case in point.It is for the Government to take stock of the serious situation and give child health the full fledged state attention that it rightly deserves. The country will be better served if the Govt. refrains from continuing with its thoughless policies in the health sector and instead concentrates on preventing unnecessary deaths of children in the country.

It needs no reiteration that a child's ability to survive the first five crucial years of his life s in extricably linked to the family's financial status. As Such, poverty is the main root cause of a majority of children's deaths. Being born poor leaves them acutely vulnerable to a host of diseases. Moreover, with limited access to medication and shelter, children in India have the lowest chances of surviving till ages 5. Being woefully deficient in vital micro-nutrients, they do not grow properly remaining susceptible to even every minor infections. the main cause of death among Indian children in indeed this low immunity combined with hight incidence of communicable diseases. Besides, poor vaccination coverage and limited accessibility to proper health care also contributes to a majority of these deaths. We may justificably crow over being a country with one of the youngest populations in the world but at the same time.. We need to be able to provide for a better quality of life for this young populations in terms of healthcare.

These are serious problems that need immediate and effective interventions.India needs to look at the problem with a fresh perspective. This has been reiterated by the world body also which says that the way forward for India lies in increasing the investments in children's nutrition and healthcare. "The issue must be placed high on the list of priorities in budget allocation and funds must be utilised effectively so that life saving services reach all who need them" the report suggests.

However, any plan directed at reducing child mortality will not be a success unless it cover the health of mothers to be also. One of the main reasons of low birthweight and malnutrition in Indian children is that mothers are inadequate to breastfeed the child due to lack of nutrition. Also due to lack of sexual education and non accessibility of contraceptives, women from lower strata of society are unable to space births. This leads to unwanted pregnancies and consequently extended families which place an additional burden to their already meagre family resources. All these factors help to perpetuate the devastating cycle of impoverishment, diseases and death which continue to plague under developed countries like India.

Having said that, the challenge for India lies in urgent implementation of the myriad of policies directed at reducing children's deaths. For, it is not only food, clean water, sanitation but also a question of a loss of life, it is about the loss of future for a country.