Fighter jet acquisation

By Air Commodore (Retd.) Uday Shankar Bajpai

There is a big hunt by fighter jet manufacturers to grab market in India. All kinds of fighters are on display at India DExpo in Delhi. Americans are competing to supply 126 F-16s and Hornet fighter bombers to replace ageing MiG-21 fighter jets. There are other competitors, but it is for the first time that Americans have come forward to supply jet fighters to India. Opinion within the country appears fragmented over this issue. There are realists who believe that somewhere there is the invisible all-pervasive hand of the American military-industrial complex.

Absent from this lively debate is the principle issue of what is good for the Indian air force. Understandably, there is deafening silence from the IAF, the one entity which will ultimately have to bear the cross, whichever way the tide turns. Its planners must be ruing at the irony of our security planning system and its proverbial short memory. Quite apart from many early examples recently, the long-awaited advanced jet trainer programme was delayed in the final stages because of our insistence that all US-sourced equipment fitted on the proposed AJTs be replaced. The already delayed light combat aircraft programme suffered a further setback when the US imposed sanctions in 1998.

Knowing the tendency of the US Congress to slap sanctions at the slightest pretext, one is surprised that there has not been a louder voice of caution and moderation to link the latest US sweetener to a deeper and more equitable strategic partnership, of which so far there are only intents.

Perhaps the biggest lesson should have come from the experience of none other than our neighbour, Pakistan, which was not only denied the F-16s that it had paid for, but its advance payments withheld and the aircraft cocooned. That it has gratefully accepted the latest largesse speaks of the magic spell of the much over-rated Fighting Falcon as the F-16 is named.

It is within this backdrop and caution not to fall prey to the hypnotic spell of the F-16 or Hornet-18, that one must appreciate the IAF's dilemma. One of the IAF's many strengths has been its sound and broad-based long-term re-equipment planning of which the essential pillars have been defining clear staff requirements, aiming for a balanced air force, reduction in multiplicity of aircraft and systems, cost of ownership over the system's life cycle as an input to decision-making and achieving all this within realistic budgetary forecasts. While technology and the battlefield environment continue to change dramatically, these planning parameters so assiduously followed by the IAF remain perennial and must not be sacrificed under extraneous pressures. To avoid being derailed, the IAF needs to introspect.

Within a balanced air force, there is certainly a need to revisit the optimum combat force level in keeping with the superior throw-weight and precision-attack capability of present-day aircraft, precision-guided weapons, force multipliers like fight refuellers, airborne early-warning aircraft and remotely piloted vehicles and the need for greater emphasis on automated missile air defence systems in view of the nuclear environment. Essential to this review is also the changing nature of warfare in general and the specific threat that the country now faces. The Defence Minister, Mr. A.K. Antony, recently emphasised that the most potent challenges faced by the country were not from conventional wars, but from unconventional threats.

Yet one learns that no change is contemplated in the forty-strong combat squadron level that has existed for three decades. Indeed two years ago, this was quoted as fifty-four squadrons. Professional air forces need to graduate from subjective planning to a more hard-nosed and business-like application of known scientific tools and methods of operational research and analysis for their operational and acquisition plans to arrive at sound solutions. The IAF is best equipped to lead the way and if results indicate that more combat aircraft are needed, so be it.

The spectacle of a multi-million dollar Mirage 2000-5 using sophisticated laser-guided bombs against a lowly Pakistani bunker during the Kargil operations is akin to using a proverbial sledgehammer to swat a fly and this exposed a glaring shortcoming in the air force's arsenal. The balanced air force had aimed at an optimum mix of high performance/high technology/high cost aircraft as well as medium performance/optimum technology/relatively lighter and lower cost aircraft. To be fair to the air force, the Light Combat Aircraft (LCA) staff requirement was born out of this concept, and the LCA was to form the backbone of the air force, but stands delayed. The IAF appears still committed to this philosophy as plans to order an initial batch of 20 LCAs with another 20 to follow show. Some of the aircraft that the IAF is reportedly now looking at, however, do not fit this category. If there is a change in philosophy, one is not clear.

Today we boast of British, French, Russian and Indian combat aircraft in our air force with a range of weapons and systems from countries such as Israel and many others. If yet more types and sources were to be added, it would be a great advertisement for internationalism, but would be at further cost to an air force and aeronautical industry already facing monumental operational, inter-operability, training and logistic complexities, apart from poor economies of scale and hence, cost burdens.

One hopes that with the scientific techniques available today to determine cost of ownership of a weapons system, a realistic analysis can be made of the various options that the IAF is considering. The ownership cost of a combat aircraft over its life-cycle can be 15-20 times the initial cost. If new aircraft have indeed to be bought, it is important to know what the realistic costs are of ownership trade-offs between opting for a new type of choosing one which shares commonality with the current IAF fleet. The IAF already has the Jaguar, Mirage 2000, MiG-29, Sukhoi-30 MKI and upgraded MiG-21s in its inventory. It has modern AJTs, which can stand in for a light fighter in emergencies.

By world air force standards, this is an extremely potent line-up. The air force is not about combat aircraft alone as in a nuclear environment, it must maintain an impenetrable and modern air defence system involving radars, missiles and command and control systems. There is need for anti-missile systems and for the IAF extending its natural domain into space. Capital outlays are needed for transport aircraft, trainers, helicopters and other systems that all need upgrading. A balanced air force includes all these plus well-trained human resources and environment for their optimum utilisation. The IAF is already committed to production programmes of Sukhoi-30 MKI, LCA, AJT, AWACS and IJT, all of which will need to be funded for the next 5-10 years.

The bogey of cost-effectiveness and a sense of self-reliance generated by offers of licensed production also need to be laid to rest. With modern production techniques, unless economies of scale are possible, setting up production is not viable. Cheap labour in the context of the aeronautical industry is a misnomer. Also, the heart of modern weapons systems is the software and its source code. This will rarely be forthcoming. So before we begin to celebrate the generous offer of the US, beware of jumping to wrong conclusions. Mere licence manufacturing will not shield us from future arm-twisting. Remember that the IAF's MiG-21 fleet was virtually grounded when the Soviet Union collapsed, in spite of the aircraft being manufactured in India for three decades. Those who had hailed this as a great feat of self-reliance had passed on into history. INAV

Whose kidney, by the way ?

TALES OF TRAVESTY

By Dr. Jitendra Singh

A recent R K Laxman cartoon depicts a group of zealous surgeons anaesthetising an unsuspecting victim to remove his kidney clandestinely when one of them suddenly notices and exclaims ‘‘O’ somebody else has already pinched and removed this man's kidney !’’

Laxman's depiction is infact a caricature of a society confused by its rapidly changing priorities, rising greed and substitution of the love of kin for the power of money. And, for such a state of affairs, not only the accused doctors are to be blamed but the blame is to be accepted by the entire society of which the accused doctors also happens to be a part.

The much publicised kidney racket is a small mainfestation of a larger malady afflicting a society crippled by contradictions.. some inherent, some aquired. It is a case study in itself. At the centre of this entire saga is the hapless patient who is urgently in need of a kidney. His close kith and kin are expected to donate the kidney for him but they are either reluctant to do so or fail the donor matching prerequisite. Meanwhile, his immediate attendants set out on a donor search spree. But, kidney donors donot sit for sale in malls or bazaars. So, obviously, the advice is sought from the surgeon who is to carry out the operation. The patient and his attendants are ready to pay for a kidney, the surgeon cannot carry on his vocation without the availability of a kidney and the middlemen, as in any other trade, make their appearance at this stage to act as good samaritans coming to the rescue of all the three characters on the scene... the patient, the attendant and the surgeon. At the other end of this spectrum is the donor or the donors of whom there is no dearth in this poverty-stricken country. Where young men and women are ready to blow themselves up as suicide squads for a few lakhs, where parents are ready to sell their daughters to brothels for a few thousands, it should not be a matter of surprise if one comes across the needy and poor vying to sell their kidneys in return for a prospect of livelihood.

At another level, there are systemic flaws prompting corruption, black-marketing and bribery in every sphere of life.. not only in respect of the infamous kidney racket but in other fields too. Litigations delayed for decades together with sometimes the court decree arriving after the death of litigant have prompted bribery even in the judiciary. Police personnel who are expected to be guardians of civil order are often found to be a party to all the disorderly deals ranging from land-grabbing and real estate trade to embezzlements at toll tax collection. As for polity, the better the skills at generating money from illegitimate sources, the better the prospects of rising higher in political hierarchy. So, in a scenario like this, it may bring little redemption by singling out kidney racketeers in isolation even though at the same time this does not call for any leniency towards kidney racketeers.

But then, what is the remedy ? To make the law regarding organ transplant less stringent or to allow a free sale-purchase of kidneys ? But again, can any remedy prove lasting without having got rid of the basic factors on which these contradictions thrive--- the factors relating to social disparity, the wide gap between rich and poor, the lack of literacy coupled with lack of conviction ? What is the fate of a country which is simultaneously a home for some of the world's richest as well as for some of the world's poorest ? Does the solution lie in nobel laurete writer V S Naipaul's suggestion to allow this ‘‘wounded’’ Indian civilisation to perish gradually and totally thus paving the way for a reincarnated civilisation ? And if so, is the common man blessed to live long enough to witness the dawn of that new civilisation ? Or else, if not so, how does it matter to Umapathy, for, to use Ghalib's expression ‘‘ Kaun Jeeta Hai Teri Zulf Ke Asar Hone Tak ’’ and so, why bother it think ‘‘whose kidney it is by the way ?’’

Will it be a people’s budget ?

By S. Sethuraman

Faced with both political compulsions and economic uncertainties, the Finance Minister P Chidambaram is expected to make a dexterous fiscal exercise, which would seek to ensure that the growth momentum does not falter and inflation is held in check while principally it meets the widespread expectations of a people-oriented budget on February 29.

The atmospherics hardly a week before presentation of the Union Budget for 2008-09, a critical year for UPA Government, suggest that it could be more of a launching pad for the ruling party's election campaign.

Strong revenue growth enables the Finance Minister to substantially increase the budgetary support for the second year of the 11the plan with its framework for "inclusive growth" with GDP assumed to rise by between 8 and 9 per cent. No matter the difficult choices, Mr Chidambaram's fiscal strategy would have to reflect his own party's wishes and the country's expectant mood on tax changes, lowering of costs and prices for business and the common man, and on special focus on farmers, small entrepreneurs, education and skills for youth, and large-scale job generation.

It may be relatively easier to announce tax concessions, direct and indirect, and broaden incentives for stimulating growth and consumption, and thus keep economic activity at a sustained level than to prioritise competing programmes even with the significantly enhanced gross budgetary support for the second year of the 11th Plan, likely to be of the order of Rs.250,000 crores.

While revenue buoyancy with a 40 per cent rise in direct tax collections is creating fiscal space, essential demands on public investment are of much larger magnitude. The Budget has to conform to the Plan priorities of agriculture, rural development, education and health, and infrastructure, apart from the flagship programmes which, like rural employment guarantee, would need more resources.

On the non-plan side, Defence outlay will go up over the 2007-08 budgeted level of Rs.96,000 crores as India seeks to strengthen and modernize its armed forces with large defence purchases abroad while opening lines of manufacture by domestic private sector. It is hardly likely that the Finance Minister would be able to pare down politically sensitive subsidies, food, fertilizers and fuel totalling an estimated Rs.55,000 crores in 2007-08 even though lately a feeble pass-through of the high imported crude prices was effected for petrol and diesel.

The Finance Minister's credible attempts at fiscal consolidation - leaving aside off-budget items like oil bonds -notwithstanding, whether he would be able to eliminate the revenue deficit (1.5 per cent of GDP in current year) in 2008-09 under the fiscal responsibility legislation is the big question mark. He might, however, manage to keep the gross fiscal deficit at 3 per cent of GDP, especially if he does not have to make a 'pause' in reduction of revenue deficit in 2008-09.

Certainly, the realisation of the targeted 11.8 per cent in tax-GDP ratio in the current year and the steady increase in gross domestic savings and capital formation to 35 and 36 per cent of GDP give room for confidence on resource mobilisation to offset the series of give-aways that the Finance Minister will find it unavoidable in the politically charged atmosphere.

While he is generally not expected to alter the income tax rates, there are several ways in which the Finance Minister could lighten the tax burden - raising exemptions, readjusting the income slabs, modifying the range of other levies like surcharge and cesses and some of the peripheral tax measures applicable to the corporate sector. He may also clarify fiscal policy in regard to special economic zones and export-oriented units as well as software.

It is in excise and customs that Mr Chidambaram would have a lot to announce, keeping in view the objectives of reversing industrial slowdown and safeguard competitiveness of labour-intensive export sectors like textiles, leather, etc and containing inflation. The changes in the indirect tax structure are also likely to provide a road-map for the proposed Goods and Services Tax (GST) to be brought into existence on April 1, 2010 for the country as a whole. The average maximum import tariff has been successively reduced over the years to the present level of 10 per cent but the Finance Minister may perhaps defer to the plea for protection of domestic manufactures by not bringing it down further (7.5 per cent) at present.

The Budget is expected to outline a major effort in financial terms for raising agricultural productivity and improving the lives of farmers, relieving them of debt burdens and extending financial inclusion for them with low-rate credits. Since it will not be a tax and spend budget, fiscal prudence has also a major role in ensuring that the budgeted higher allocations are wisely utilised and produce effective social outcomes, especially in all sectors related to "inclusive growth", especially education, health, employment and rural infrastructure.

The Finance Minister is also likely to outline some measures on regulating the capital inflows, which in excess complicate monetary management with liquidity surge and rise in inflation expectations. With the liberalisation of capital account, short of full convertibility, no restrictions on capital inflows are envisaged as such but greater attention would be on the quality of flows which would be productively employed and prove beneficial to the economy. In the current year till mid-February, over 85 billion dollars were added to the reserves from such flows.

Growth prospects for 2008-09 are, to some extent, linked to the global economy which is on a downtrend and the US economy is in the edges of recession and unlikely to revive in the first half of 2008, according to forecasts. The 2008 growth projection for India is 8 to 8.5 per cent as against the 8.7 per cent in 2007-08, the advance estimate of the Central Statistical Organisation.

Financial market turmoils and tight credit markets continue while globally inflation is again rising creating a dilemma for central banks, especially Fed (USA), in regard to further rate cuts for growth revival. To what extent India - since no country is immune to the risks that the world economy has run into - would be affected in terms of trade or capital flows cannot be foreseen at this stage of evolving developments. (IPA Service)

India's meritime diplomacy

By Mahendra Ved

The Indian Ocean Naval Symposium is India's attempt to convert the region from competitive to collective security and to assert that oceans 'connect' land masses. OCEANS separate land masses; men who sail through them need to connect them. This is a given, but bears stressing in these turbulent times.

After years of perfunctory and half-hearted exhortations at declaring the Indian Ocean region "a zone of peace", a small but sure step is about to be taken to convert this region from competitive to collective security.

The initiative has been taken by the Indian Navy. Along with its premier think tank, the National Maritime Foundation, it is organizing in New Delhi an international meet, that will for the first time have 29 commanders-in-chief of the navies of the Indian Ocean region gathering to discuss maritime, and not just naval, issues.

It is being called Indian Ocean Naval Symposium (IONS), whose theme, fittingly enough, will be "Contemporary Trans-National Challenges: International Maritime Connectivity's".

The two-day seminar will be opened by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh as part of the maritime diplomacy. Besides serving and retired naval officers, diplomats and scholars specializing in maritime affairs are scheduled to speak.

IONS are the clearest manifestation of an attempt to engineer a fundamental shift from competitive to collective security within the Indian Ocean region.

It challenges and overturns the long-held belief that the oceans "separate" land masses, asserting instead that the oceans, in fact, connect land masses.

In more than one sense, it stands the traditional notion of "borders" on its head, positing that the seas themselves are the borders and hence, every country with a coastline is a "neighbour" or a "bordering country" to every other country with a coastline.

The motivation implicit in this effort towards the consultative and co-operative tackling of maritime security concerns within a region hitherto characterized by diversity, suspicion and insecurity is the result of the economic globalization that is shrinking the world in every dimension other than the physical.

The unprecedented globalisation of trade, technology, media and a host of other areas of human activity emphasises interdependence as the defining characteristic of the modern world.

It underscores a pressing need to assure security in international trade and commerce, and of life against the vicissitudes of man and nature alike.

The "IONS Initiative" is reflective of this growing desire for regional peace and stability when the very nature of the threats to security has changed; moving beyond the familiar Westphalian construct of nation-states.

The threats that pervade the maritime domain are not posed by one nation-state to another, but ones that strike at the "collective good" through the viral spread of malevolent non-state actors contemptuous of niceties such as national boundaries.

Why "ions"? Rear Admiral Pradeep Chauhan, the Indian navy's assistant chief of staff, the man behind the symposium, responds that it was initially conceptualized as an acronym, an abbreviation with an inclusive appeal.

But the formulation lends itself to something more universal. It explains the initiative without trivializing it into a moribund, single-nation effort.

It has the added advantage of being the same as the English word for "a group of electrically charged atoms", rooted in the Greek ienai, "a moving thing".

IONS is not a static or a one-off endeavour but inherently dynamic and in a state of continuous, co-ordinated movement, together, as a region.

Given the co-operation of navies of the region, India hopes to make it a biennial affair.

IONS cannot and must not be allowed to flounder. This realisation is driving every country of the Indian Ocean littoral to shed its historical baggage and to add its might to the common cause.

IONS underscore the larger role the navies have performed. Navies have historically been recognised and used as versatile and effective tools of international diplomacy.

Long the preserve of the industrialized and often colonial powers of the West, this awareness has now lodged itself in the consciousness of the littoral states of the Indian Ocean as well.

It is this awareness IONS seeks to leverage. In concentrating on security in the widest sense, IONS fills the void in the earlier IOR-ARC construct, which concentrated purely on economic co-operation and has consciously abjured the security dimension.

As such, the IONS initiative complements rather than competes with the IOR-ARC initiative.

Even as the IOR-ARC continues its fascinating pan-regional economic experiment, each nation-state of the IOR has come to realize that without regional stability, economic prosperity will remain a seductive but unsubstantial mirage. The two can no longer be swept under the same carpet of political acceptability, but need to be addressed holistically and intelligently.

A particularly clever move has been to schedule the IONS with Defexpo 2008 defence event. The two will leverage each other, as the navy chiefs are the prime decision-makers of their countries on naval platforms, systems and equipment.

In attempting this initiative, the Indian navy has clarified that the primary aim of IONS is to sustain a regionally relevant, consultative forum of the navies (and/or the principal maritime agencies responsible for maritime security) of the IOR's littoral states.

They may discuss issues and concerns bearing upon maritime security, with a view to arriving at agreed courses of action on transnational issues, based upon a common understanding of the regional maritime security environment.

Unity from the Cape of Good Hope to the Straits of Malacca should serve the IOR well.-CNF