US elections

By Arun Nehru

There are positives and negatives in every situation and I think the year 2008 will present us with many a political positives and I think we can see this with the emergence of Barack Obama in the USA [favorite to win the Democratic nomination] from Hilary Clinton and may well be the next President as the Republican party struggles with the negative impact of the war in Iraq. The Australian PM Kevin Rudd wins a stunning election victory [former PM Howard loses his own seat] and reflects the National mood as he renders a 'apology' to the Aborigines for the inhuman and shameful treatment given to the community and this is a act of great courage and his observations on the war in Iraq reflect the reality of the situation. The process of 'reform' sadly comes after a great tragedy and we have seen regime changes in Spain, Italy, Australia and we may well see changes in the USA/UK on the issue of the illegal war in Iraq which has left over a 100,000 civilians dead in Iraq, diverted attention from the war on terror and pushed 'oil' prices to a record level and triggered a recessionary trend in many a economy in the 'developed' world. Thousands of soldiers have perished on both sides and 'suicide' bombers have created havoc as they battle superior forces and armaments with their lives and the US is seen as a 'occupation' force' in Iraq. Public opinion which may have supported the initial war effort is clearly hostile as the situation is out of control and anyone responsible for the situation will be politically punished at the ballot. The rules of the game are very different for the 'victors' and the 'vanquished' and whilst in the case of the former a defeat at the ballot and a public apology is considered adequate punishment the latter go through a motivated legal process and suffer death by hanging or the firing squad. We can only hope that the US forces withdraw from Iraq [this will be opposed by vested interests on both sides] and the people of Iraq are free to pursue their own destiny and have control on their 'oil' resources and if the lessons of History are any indication of the future then you may well find that those 'persecuted' may well be the 'new' leaders [Vietnam is a classic example] and clearly the winners of the political battles in 2008 will recognize the reality of the situation.

The war in Iraq may cost the US treasury close to 500 billion to a trillion dollars and I don't think that the USA with a declining dollar and a period of low growth can afford this luxury and the chaos in the US economy by the sub prime crisis and the financial sector has not helped the situation. Change is in the 'air' and I think that the USA will take little time to take corrective action as the democratic system is very strong and look at the manner in which Barack Obama with his message for 'real change' is finding support at all levels of American society and I think that the current momentum will see him ahead of the formidable Clinton duo and he must be a very strong favorite to win the Democratic nomination and may well be the next President. I don't believe that a 2.5-3% growth rate in the USA and the Western world and 8-10% in China and India will really make a difference as we are very much in a global economy and all countries are buying into select sectors in each country and over a period of time the growth will average out within acceptable limits.

General elections are coming close and change is always positive and as things stand the field is wide open with the Congress marginally ahead of a resurgent BJP and the possibility of a effective Third Front may well change the way we look at politics. The Congress and the BJP have much to do before the next General election and I cannot see a election coming in 2008 as there is no advantage for the Congress to bring this forward and there is talk of major changes within the government and the party. These changes will have a effect on future elections if the changes focus on effective leadership for the future in critical states like Maharashtra, Karnataka ,MP, Rajasthan and Chattisgarh. Cabinet reshuffle, party changes, Rajya Sabha vacancies will give the Congress High Command to plan for the future and these changes may be critical to formulate their plan for the future. I still feel that success for the Congress/BJP will come if 'positive' signals are given to leadership qualities in the states and issues of religion and caste will offer little compensation in electoral success.The field is wide open for the future and the next six months are critical for forming a favorable trend for 2009 and General elections. The budget is due in the next few days and a political message is necessary in everything that is done in the coming months.

The counting in the Pakistan election is on and we wish them well for the future and stability will be the crucial factor as we look into issues of internal security. As I write this the results are trickling in and it is unlikely if either the PPP or the PML [Nawaz Sharif] will be anywhere near a majority and we may well see democratic systems being used to sustain a dictatorship and we may well find that General Musharraf and the Army will wield the real power and few will complain if this provides 'stability'. The real picture of the elections will take a few days to assess and my initial reaction is that the fragmented verdict and the inbuilt hostility between the democratic forces will make governance impossible in the long term and the global community whilst stressing on democratic values is interested in a stable regime capable of fighting terror and terrorists.

The emerging power equations

By Vijayveer Vikram Singh

The world for a while has gone unipolar, but this state of imbalance will not last long. Sooner or a little later, the second power pole is bound to emerge. Where exactly it will, should be a matter of interest to us, especially because the last time, we were left holding on to the wrong pole.

Change is the law and also perhaps the life of nature-the very beating of its heart. The 16th century belonged to the Portuguese. Their ships and sailors could be seen all over the world. The Dutch ruled the waves in the 17th century. In the 18th and 19th centuries, the sun never set on the British Empire. In the present century, the Americans similarly seem to have emerged as the super people in the world.

Interestingly, however, every nation in its hour of glory had the illusion of permanence about this transitory phenomenon. Lord Macaulay boasted, "a single shelf of a good European library was worth the whole literature of India and Arabia." The learned Law Member of the Governor's General Council completely forgot that India had given the world its first book, the 'Rig Veda' and Arabia had triggered the first wave of the European Renaissance-that big leap forward in learning.

Equally innocently, the Americans now appear to believe that the world belongs to them. For a while, the Vietnamese had given them a good lesson that it does not pay to poke one's nose in other people's countries. The sobering effect, however, was not to stay long. Saddam soon provided them an opportunity to get back their clout and confidence. The victory in the "mother of battles" that came to them rather cheap both in money and men revived their wrong ideas.

With the two widest oceans of the Earth securing its flanks and the vastness of its landmass providing in tremendous depth, the USA is strategically the most secure region of the world. This explains why no battle was fought on its soil during the last two global wars. Another boom to the Americans is their weak neighbours and bountiful land. Around three-and-a-half centuries back, their ancestors landed there with a powerful urge to come good in the new lands. Some of that spirit still subsists. They imported industrial revolution from Europe, but soon found themselves leading it from the front. Today they have a healthy 17 per cent share in the world trade, hold 43 per cent of its nuclear arsenal and have a reasonably big population of 285 million to sustain a long war. In addition, they have the advantage of affinity with the powerful Western world. Its only military limitation lies in its prosperity. The Americans do not relish the idea of leaving their comfortable homes to fight battles all over the world just for the sake of maintaining the clout of the country. It would be interesting to see how the American infantry performs when it has to close in on an enemy who has not been substantially damaged from a distance. Iraq and Afghanistan are examples, where American soldiers hate to fight.

Russia, the superpower of yesteryears is in no position to challenge the Americans at the moment. But with 120 tons of plutonium and 700 tons of enriched uranium still in its arsenal, very considerable capability in missiles and space vehicles and a standing army of over two million, it has the potential to revive. After all, the vast and bone-chilling landmass of Russia that sucked all fight out of the armies of Napoleon and Hitler is still intact. It is even today impossible to beat Russian on its own-soil. Nevertheless, it will take a long time for Russia to be able to rub shoulders with the mighty Americans again.

The strongest nation after the USA today is apparently China. It has a formidable population-every fourth person in the world is a Chinese. It maintains the biggest standing army of around three million in the world, backed by a huge militia. Its economy is presently on a fast track. The Pacific Ocean washes its Eastern flank and it does not face much threat from the other sides either, as Russia has gone weak and the Western armies are quite some distance away. It has considerable nuclear arsenal and delivery capability to deter its potential enemies. The "Middle Kingdom" is certainly on the move towards the centre stage of the world. The rich resources of Hong Kong are available to it.

The spirited Japanese are already an economic superpower of the world. However, they will need some time to rebuild their dismantled military machine. The geographical weakness also makes them quite vulnerable. At the moment, the Japanese are able to challenge America in the economic field only and not in the field of battle. But in the case of the Japanese (that yellow peril beyond the seas, according to the Chinese perception), you really never know.

The 51 countries of the Islamic world, with a population of about one billion, lie like a reptile, sandwiched between Africa and India on one side and Europe and China on the other. There are petro-dollars in their pockets and zeal in their hearts. However, they are politically too disunited and geographically too dispersed to be able to pool their resources effectively. The crescent that their territories form lacks strategic depth. One does not see them challenging the domination of America beyond a few brave words every now and then. The bulk of the Muslim fraternity seemingly takes pride in staying out of tune with the times.

India, with its huge population, its vast territory commanding sea routes in all directions, the fine IQ and thrifty nature of its people and rich natural resources, has all the potential to emerge as a world power. At the moment, however, it has far too many politico-economic weaknesses in its backyard to be able to resist even arms-twisting by American, not to speak of taking on them.

America, as the leader of the Western world, thus, seems to be in an unassailable position at this point of time. There is a good hope of the challenge to the American hegemony rising from China. The other potential spots where the challenge may emerge in course of time are Russia, Japan and India, in that order. However, if the Americans are indiscreet enough to start browbeating the rest of the Western world, this entity is quite capable of answering their arrogance. INAV

Employment scenario in J&K State

By M L Gupta

The Govt services continue to be the 1st preference of job aspirants as it provide social status, job security, least accountability, price index linked salaries and host of other perks like LTC, pensionary benefits generous leave calender and paid holidays. However govt has limitation particularly that of J&K State which is spending 4500 crores annually on salaries of its employees whereas it is hardly generating 1200 crores by way of taxes etc; besides taking away a large chunk of govt funds which otherwise could have been utilized in developmental works. The execessive employment in govt sector makes its working inefficient, highly corruption oriented and provide little job satisfaction. The proverb ‘‘Too many cooks spoil the broth’’ suitably apply to government employees.

Having locational disadvantage the Industrial growth in State had been at lowest. To attract outside investment the state govt. had been declaring various incentive schemes. However the Govt of India's incentives extended to State from the year 2002 of Central Excise refund and income tax exemption for ten years from the date of commercial production have made the Indian investors to make a bee line in putting up industries in the State. Govt Delays in acquiring land for industrial purpose had been the only hindrance in mush rooming growth of Industry in the State after central sops had been declared.

Unfortunately most of these units employ non locals. The state govt. order No. 168-Ind of 2005 dated 30-6-2005 has failed to deter these units. Though these units as per State Govt order are required to have 90% local employees within 30 months of the trial/commercial production, most of them have 90% non-locals. The enforcing agency DICs are unable to effect checks as the DIC employees are mostly in pay roll of these industrialists. They verify the records of industrialists which hardly reflect 20% of the actual employees strength where as industrialists maintain either duplicate records for wages payment or get production through labour contractors who employ mostly non locals. No wonder the industrial areas/growth centres at Kathua, Samba and Bari Brahmana are teaming with outsiders/non-state subjects.

The mushroom growth of Industry in state due to Central govt sops can generate substantial employment if 90% employment of state subjects is enforced fully in all the Industrial units of the state irrespective of the incentives directly involved in production or through contract production. For this purpose the govt directive have to be issued accordingly and a separate enforcement directorate for ensuring 90% employment to state subjects under people of integrity is constituted. Further govt should also announce heavy penalities ranging between Rs 5 Lacs to Rs 50 Lacs for defaulting units. Further seizure of the industrial unit be declared for habitual defaulters. It is hoped that with enforcement of 90% employment of state subjects and adequate growth in industry more than 2 lac jobs can be created for the locals in this sector.

Most of these units are being put up by industrialists from outside who either have similar units already functioning in Haryana, Punjab, Gujarat and Maharashtra etc; or have sufficient technical knowhow and financial capacity. As such the process does not allow the growth of enterpreneurship among locals. The State govt has to come up with an agency which identify, train the enterpreneur provide them technical knowhow arranged through Central govt agencies or consultancy firms at the state govt expenses.

Further since the micro and small enterprises existing in the state is limited to the extent of manufacturing items required by State Govt departments or for local consumption, there has been little growth of this sector whereas at National level this sector accounts for forty percent of the total industrial output in the country. One of the reason for slow growth of this sector has also been lack of large industries in the state which otherwise would have provided an ancilliary base for the enterpreneurs.

Automobile industry is one such industry having large potential for the growth of ancilliary base. However most of automobile units have concentrated around metro cities where ancilliary base has also developed. For developing ancilliary base in the state for automobile units around Delhi the nearest Metro the state govt should constitute a special agency which generate techno-market tie up with large automobile units for the local enterpreneurs and ensure adequate financing of the local units through banks and financial institutions. Further as the automobile uits normally work on day to day inve ntory the state agency has to create own transportation network to move the ancilliary products to captive units on daily basis and retrieve payments on regular basis against supplies made.

The State agency can also look for technical knowhow and joint ventures for manufacture of testing and laboratory equipments in the state which are normally labour intensive and little in volume/weight as compared to cost of the equipments. A large number of testing and laboratory equipemnts are required in pesticides, chemical and pharmaceutical units in the state. Automobile and Machine took ancilliary units would also require measuring guages and equipments for quality control.

An other sector which can generate large employment potential is service sector. Information technology (IT/ITCS) in India has been providing services not only to local firms but have also been exporting to foreign countries. It has been perdicted that domestic IT/ITCS market revenue will touch Rs 110,000 crore in 2008 reflecting a growth of 24% over the 2007 revenue generation. Various state govt had been competing in providing better infrastructure to attract domestic IT/ITCS firms. Andhra and Karnataka had been the fore runners. Little has been doe by the J&K State in this regard. As such the state govt should approach the major player in IT/ITCS like Satyam, Wipro and others to expand their base to this state IT perks of international level should be developed in the state preferably with vertical planning to conserve land. To generate local man power for this sector massive vocational training in various colleges and institutions in the state should be arranged in consultations with top players in IT/ITCS.

Extensive vocational training should also be arranged at district level in traditional vocations/trades particularly handicrafts to generate employment at district and rural level. It is particular to mention that there is not adequately trained man power for minor vocations/trades like plumbing, electricians, motor winders, machinery maintenance etc. Further a highly qualified/expertised cell should also be created to train qualified unemployed engineers in establishing their consultancy groups for providing design & project services to industry.

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