EDITORIAL
Power
scenario on
again, off again
One must express satisfaction with
the Government's Economic Survey for having made
a dispassionate study of power scenario in the
State. A quick appraisal reveals that it has
called a spade a spade. Since the Survey is based
on official statistics there is hardly any margin
of error. The demand for power is going to
skyrocket in the coming decades. On current
projections it will touch 4000 MWs (19500 units)
in 2020-21. It is a quantum jump from the current
peak demand of 1700 MWs which is expected to
reach 2042 MWs by the end of 2007-08 and 2441 MWs
by 2010-11. Clearly there is a long, long way to
go. For, the present scene is not very
encouraging. As we know very well by now the
estimated hydro power potential is 20000 MWs (the
figure has been there for more than a decade) of
which 16480 MWs has been identified. Of the
recognised potential only 1478.70 MWs (just nine
per cent of the total) has been exploited till
2006-07 consisting of 308.70 MWs in the State
sector from 19 power projects and 1170 MWs from
two Central schemes. The Survey leaves no doubt:
"Due to resource constraints, exploitation
of this economic rejuvenator has been very
steady. Besides, the constraints imposed by the
provisions of Indus Water Treaty between India
and Pakistan, preventing storage, these projects
have been constructed as run of the river and as
such generation reduces to less than 1/3rd of
installed capacity during winter when these
snow-fed rivers dwindle. The State is perpetually
energy deficient and has to rely on power
purchase from Northern Grid to meet the
requirements particularly in winters when its own
generation recedes and demand peaks." The
merit of this evaluation is that it comes from an
expert. A layman knows it from practical
experiences in everyday life.
The Survey makes quite a few pointed
observations. What it has to say about the
distribution network deserves a close look:
"The greatest weakness is on the
distribution front which is entirely the domain
of the State. Aggregate Technical and Commercial
(AT&C) losses of our State are about 70 per
cent and this had made the PDD (Power Development
Department) financially sick which is not able to
bear these losses. The poor technological and
logistic support and administrative mismanagement
is the main reason of this dismal performance. In
this context the State is unable to invest
adequately in additional generation capacity as
the State Power Department is running in huge
losses. For the same reason, these utilities have
only limited success in attracting private
investors to set up power plants… Despite
several steps at reforms over the years, the
situation in the power sector is worsening
because of very slow pace of progress in
distribution segment. Without effective reforms
in this area the sector will not be financially
viable and will be unable to achieve the required
level of achievement. Though some progress has
been made for setting up of State Regulatory
Organisation yet the actual improvement in
distribution efficiency is low." Of course,
the entire statement is self-explanatory. It
mirrors the reality as it exists. It also shows
that those in charge of running the show are not
moving their best foot forward. The State sector
in particular requires to be set straight. This
point is further underlined: "Out of 20
hydel power stations presently no power is being
generated from eight power stations which have
the capacity of producing 28.30 MWs of power thus
reducing the effective installed power generation
from 308.70 MWs to 280.40 MWs. The diesel power
houses are located in the areas of Ladakh, Gurez
and Karnah which are inaccessible to the Northern
Grid. The gas turbines are used in emergencies
because of prohibitive cost of generation as
compared to hydro power which is quite
economical. But availability of hydro power is
limited to 140 MWs in summer and around 60 MWs in
winter because of depleting of river
discharge." This is not the end of the
State's woes. The Survey continues: "The
machines of the present power houses have
outlived their lives in most of the stations and
require renovation and modernisation. The Upper
Sindh Hydel Project-II with an installed capacity
of 105 MWs (35x3 MWs) had limited summer
availability to the extent of around 30 MWs only
because of vibration problem… During 10th
Five Year Plan no additions have been made to
power generation." On the other hand, the
Central sector is doing better.
Having listed the difficulties the Survey strikes
an optimistic note for the future. It places its
confidence, among others, on the following
initiatives: long-term finance arrangement being
made available at lower capital charge, boosting
generation for deriving maximum benefits from
hydel potential, building inter-state and
intra-state transmission system of adequate
capacity, more efficient distribution system,
rehabilitation of the existing power stations to
yield additional peaking capacity, e-metering,
consumer awareness about efficient use and
private participation under joint ventures. It
mentions several multi-crore steps that have been
taken in the direction of achieving these
objectives: Rs 18912.25 crores earmarked under
the Prime Minister's Reconstruction Programme (it
includes an amount of Rs 14952.41 crores in the
Central sector for power generation), the Central
Government's "commitment" to provide an
amount of Rs 3900 crores "in the shape of
power sector reforms grant over a period of three
years" and Rs 1017.20 crores being spent in
the State sector. The Survey does strive to
present a total picture. It can prove very
helpful for all those engaged in this significant
field. Very rightly it also takes notice of what
it regards positive features which are many like
the commissioning of the Dulhasti Project and
resolution of the Baglihar dispute "in
favour of Jammu and Kashmir" apart from
modernisation of old plants. On the transmission
side more grid stations have been and are being
established. These moves in themselves can't
redeem a hopeless situation if one looks at them
from the perspective of ordinary consumers. As
the proof of the pudding is in the eating the
success of the electricity regime can only be
measured in terms of comforts it brings to every
house. One and all will be happy if there is
around-the-clock supply. On the present
reckoning, as the Survey indicates, we may
perform well over the long haul.
China
out manoeuvres India
By
Brig. (Retd.) S.N.
Sachadeva
In a brazen
act, China has taken
exception to Prime
Minister, Dr. Manmohan
Singh's assertion that
Arunachal Pradesh
belonged to India and has
lodged a protest against
it. Beijing has conveyed
to New Delhi that it was
"not proper"
for the Indian Prime
Minister to make such a
comment at a time when
the two countries were
engaged in talks over the
boundary question.
Reacting sharply to
China's protest, the
Minister for External
Affairs, Mr. Pranab
Mukherjee contended that
"We are aware of the
stand of China and they
are aware of ours."
The issue flares up
periodically when Chinese
troops-at regular
intervals-intrude into
Indian Territory to
"demonstrate"
their claim on the land.
India has, however, been
seeking to play down
these incursions by
arguing that these were a
result of
"differences in
perception". China's
protest will add a sour
note to the relations
between the two
countries.
Late Nani Palkhivala's
classic that the peacock
should not have been our
national bird, but the
ostrich! Certainly, there
has been euphoria on
occasion, that now that
Mao has smiled, we can
start dismantling our
defences along the
Himalayas. Or, now that
we have a government in
Delhi that is going to
kiss and make up with all
our other neighbours, we
can start major
reductions in defence
expenditure. The response
of the uniformed
fraternity to this has
been. "You have to
work on the capabilities
of potential adversaries
and not on their
intentions. The smile can
change overnight to a
frown, and capabilities
take long to
create."
Calculations of
capabilities must
however, be modulated by
political judgement as to
the probability of a
clash of vital interests.
Here the vital interest
of China is to grab
Arunachal Pradesh, may be
even by use of force, if
Indian defences are not
strong.
The Chinese ace of yore
on statecraft, Sun Tzu,
always advocated a unique
tenet in his
deliberations: "Keep
the other side
guessing."
This is precisely what
China's leaders have done
to their Indian
counterparts at the
recent visit of Prime
Minister Manmohan Singh
to that country.
Compounding it all, the
joint statement issued on
the conclusion of this
visit contains virtually
the same political
platitudes as those
reflected in a similar
statement that was
floated after Atal Behari
Vajpayee's 2003 sojourn.
The border dispute,
China's Vice Foreign
Minister Dai Bangguo has
already seen through two
of our National Security
Advisers one after
another and is now
playing footsie with the
third one. This dispute
has so far retained its
original format because
all that is reportedly
discussed at these
meetings is the weather,
cuisine-cum-liquor,
picturesque spots of the
meeting place, and maps
of the Line of Actual
Control as an
afterthought.
Every meeting invariably
ends with both incumbents
trumpeting how
"meaningful" it
was. When specifically
queried about the key to
the border dispute,
namely Aksai Chin, the
Indian man looks
embarrassed while the
Chinese one looks brazen.
In sum, New Delhi builds
castles in the air and
Beijing stays smug.
The usual refrain after a
summit level visit is
that Sino-Indian
relations can be settled
through the trade route
coupled with
progressively increasing
people-to-people contact.
Our first error here was
shouting our heads off on
Tibet and the Dalai Lama:
we need to shut our mouth
in this regard. The same
goes for Taiwan, as it is
none of our business. We
also went on China's
wrong side by not only
surreptitiously allowing
Tibetan refugee camps to
flourish on our soil but
needling these refugees
to make a nuisance of
themselves whenever
Chinese dignitaries visit
India.
And for heaven's sake, we
must drastically curb our
loose canons like an
earlier Defence Minister
who announced "China
is our number one
enemy" when asked
about Pokhran II;
incidentally, the same
gentleman runs a Tibetan
refugee centre at his
official residence.
We must not interference
in Myanmar's internal
matters knowing well
enough that China and
Myanmar are very close.
No comments should be
passed on China's
relations with Pakistan,
North Korea or Japan, nor
for that matter on
China's activities in
West Asia.
Even as India has become
more accommodating and
forbearing in its
dealings with China,
Beijing has hardened its
position on territorial
issues. Since 1981, the
two countries have been
engaged in regular
border-related talks in
what is the longest and
most barren negotiating
process in modern world
history. Of late,
however, China has
pugnaciously pressed its
claims. A classic
instance was last
November when the Chinese
ambassador-backed by his
foreign ministry-publicly
renewed China's claim on
Arunachal, stoking an
unusual diplomatic spat
on the eve of president
Hu Jintao's visit to
India.
Sino-Indian negotiations,
although rich in
symbolism, have yielded
little progress for three
main reasons. First,
China has sought to
stretch the talks to keep
India under strategic
pressure. It has employed
negotiations as a
diplomatic tool to engage
India, not to reach
accord. This tactic
dovetails with China's
broader strategy to
present a friendly face
while building up its
capabilities to go on the
offensive.
Second, China persuaded
India in 2003 to shift
from the practical task
of clarifying the
frontline to the abstract
mission of developing
"principles",
"concepts" and
"framework" for
an overall border
settlement. This shift
was intended to release
Beijing from its 2001
commitment to exchange
maps with India of first
the western sector and
then of the eastern
sector-a pledge it had
already breached by
missing the mutually
agreed deadlines. INAV
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Curbing
child marriage
By Aarti
Child marriage, one
of the most distressing social
maladies of our times,
contributes virtually to every
social problem that affects
women.
The Law Commission’s recent
recommendations like i) declaring
child marriages involving a girl
or boy below 16 years as illegal,
ii) proposing a uniform age of 18
years for marriage of both boys
and girls, iii) raising the age
for sexual consent from 15 years
to 16 years for all girls,
regardless of marriage and iv)
mandatory registration of
marriages within a fixed period,
for all the communities is a
welcome step to end child
exploitation and abuse.
Child marriage, defined as
marriage of a child less than 18
years of age, an ancient,
worldwide custom, is believed to
have existed as early as 300 BC.
Though in ancient India the
practice was rare, marriage of
girls below 8 or 9 years
prevailed during the reign of
Delhi sultans.
With girls considered an economic
burden in many societies and
poverty compounding the situation
in perpetuating child marriage,
the amount of dowry increased as
the girl got older. This often
resulted in parents getting their
daughters married at younger
ages.
Such marriages do have a social
sanction. Not long ago, media
reported the case of a Minister
marrying off his minor daughter
in violation of the law. The
gentleman was quick to explain
that since he got elected on a
‘reserved’ seat, he
needed to follow the customary
practices. He justified that
failure to do so apart from his
excommunication would lose his
very qualification to contest
again. What was his best recourse
under such circumstances? Could
he go against the pressures of
his tradition?
Concerned with the growing menace
of child marriages, the National
Commission for Women in 1995
advised the Government to appoint
Child Marriage Prevention
Officers, recommended for
stringent punishment as well as
making the offences cognizable
besides declare that such
marriages performed in
contravention of the Act as void.
The National Human Rights
Commission in 2002 recommended
comprehensive amendments to the
Child Marriage Restraint Act,
1929. Following representations
from different quarters, a
comprehensive legislation to
tackle child marriages took shape
with the passing of the
Prohibition of Child Marriage
Act, 2006 under which all
offences are cognizable and
non-bailable. Most importantly,
every child born of such
marriage, whether before or after
the commencement of the proposed
legislation, are legitimate for
all purposes. Anyone who
performs/conducts/directs/abets
any child marriage is liable to
be punished with simple
imprisonment extending up to 2
years plus a fine extending to Rs
1 lakh. Where a child contracts a
child marriage, be it the parent,
guardian or any other person in
charge of the child, who does any
act to promote the marriage or
permits it to be solemnised, or
negligently fails to prevent it
from being solemnised, including
attending or participating in a
child marriage, shall be
punishable with simple
imprisonment extending up to two
years plus a fine up to Rs 1
lakh. However, no women shall be
punishable with imprisonment.
So, has the new legislation
helped to curb child marriages?
Take the case of Jharkhand where
child marriages are rampant.
Following a recent survey by the
human resources department
establishing that 80 percent of
girls in the state were married
before they passed the secondary
school examination and 70 percent
quitting school midway, stipends
are to be doled out to girls from
the next academic year. Parents
need to furnish an undertaking
not to marry off their daughters
to be eligible for the stipends
amounting to Rs 150 per month.
The government would deposit this
amount in a bank account in the
name of the girl student.
More recently two instances where
minor girls married off to men
twice their age that too as
second wives of their husbands
was reported in Hyderabad. In the
first case, a minor girl’s
husband forced her to satisfy the
desires of his father until and
unless she brought home Rs 50,000
and two kilos of gold as dowry.
When she resented her in-laws
along with the husband threw
kerosene on her. Another minor
who sought for a divorce after
she came to know her husband was
already married infuriated her
in-laws and husband. They not
only demanded Rs 35,000 as
punishment for raising her voice
but one night, her husband and
mother-in-law sexually assaulted
her following which she had to be
hospitalised for over two months.
Many believe that such marriages
are a means to protect girl
children from sexual harassment
in some situations and as a means
to cut down the cost of marriage
in others. But what are the
implications?
Child marriage can affect the
next generation which is equally
at higher risk for avoidable
illness and death. Adolescent
mothers have a 35 to 55 percent
higher risk than older women for
delivering infants who are
preterm and of low birth weight.
True, legislation alone cannot
stop this evil custom. But other
steps need consideration. India
has on 11 December 1992 accepted
the Convention on Rights of
Child, the most universally
accepted human rights instrument,
whereby the State is committed to
protect and ensure child rights.
Perhaps lack of awareness and
accountability has been a major
enabling factor for child
marriages to thrive. But why
should anybody risk her or his
life to prevent child marriages?
Remember the fate of 48-year
Shakuntala Verma, a supervisor in
Madhya Pradesh’s child and
welfare department who tried to
dissuade people in
tribal-dominated Dhar (Bhanpur
village) from marrying off their
children? On 12 May 2005 a youth
visited her house in the pretext
of seeking directions and chopped
off her hands.
Unlike Shakuntala, last April, a
10-year-old girl in West Bengal’s
North 24-Parganas who stood up
against the collective might of
her family was successful in
stopping her marriage. With a
pledge to study and be
self-reliant., the class 5
student supported by her
neighbours approached the
district administration and with
police help the child’s
marriage was prevented.
Child marriages in India are
largely and directly linked to
ignorance and poverty. Since such
marriages are not registered no
accurate statistics are
available. The Law Commission’s
suggestion to register all
marriages, which has been also
emphasised by the Supreme Court,
needs implementation in letter
and spirit. Since the malady of
child marriages seems to prevail
among the communities where
education of girls is not paid
adequate attention, it is
imperative to focus on girls’
education. Moreover an educated
girl will not go in for an early
marriage.
Therefore, efforts should be made
to ensure cent per cent enrolment
of girls in schools. As such,
child marriage is a gross
violation of human rights because
it denies the right of education,
health and bonding with others
their own age. In the national
interest, the menace merits to be
struck out at its roots.
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BJP
- recasting strategy
By P. Raman
When the new BJP
establishment came out with a Pramod
Mahajan-style comprehensive road map to
capture the 15th Lok Sabha in 2009, it
came as a great relief to the party's old
friends. More than its details and
precision, what had impressed the
admirers was the unusually cordial
atmosphere under which L.K. Advani was
allowed to take command of the party's
new war council for the ensuing battle.
Rajnath Singh has gracefully yielded the
ground to the senior.
Contrary to predictions, Narendra Modi
did not stake any claim. Instead, through
his subtle showmanship he has only
settled the question as to who is the
boss after Advani. This is apparent from
the way the Advani-groomed GenNext crowd
rushed to seek the future chief's
patronage. Accordingly, they have been
given important role in poll management.
Sushma Swaraj will manage the NDA allies
and try to rope in more of them. Rajnath
Singh will supervise the planning and
execution of party's strategies and
programmes. Arun Jaitely will be in
charge of strategy sessions in addition
to looking after important states.
However, the real significance of the
Gujarat victory and the happy bonhomie in
the party is that they marked the first
test for the parivar and its political
wing in the post-Vajpayee era. Similarly,
the recent poll battles and operational
details of the 13-month-long campaign
plans were done without the main
political manager Mahajan. On the
surface, the BJP did not even feel the
fall of the banian trees. In Gujarat, the
mandatory rallies of Vajpayee might even
have been an embarrassment to Modi who
had won on his own mix of asmita and
localised Hindutva.
Vajpayee had always avoided taking
responsibility in day-to-day party
running. Instead, his role has been at
three levels. As the best crowd puller,
he has been the main campaigner for the
BJP, especially among the Hindi
hinterland's Brahmins. Perceived as a
liberal among the hard Hindutva
adherents, his role was crucial in
removing BJP's 'untouchability'. Then he
was the one who tried to put some balance
in the BJP's policy fluctuations. Even
while Advani had the full control of the
party, his only hurdle was a final
endorsement from Vajpayee. So, one may
have to wait longer before giving a
verdict on the giant banian tree's
irrelevance.
Take the balancing role first. On
December 29, a regrouped durbar met at
Advani's residence and hurriedly formed
an election committee. When resentment
grew, the durbar panel had to be
converted into an inclusive campaign
committee. Some were removed and excluded
seniors like Yashwant Sinha, Bal Apte and
Gopinath Munde were accommodated along
with Murli Manohar Joshi and Vinay
Katiyar. On such occasions, Vajpayee is
the last window to knock at.
Another case in point is the haste with
which a 13-month-long general election
campaign was launched. It was done
without adequate deliberations and expert
input. In 2003, Mahajan had used the long
time available for him to effect a change
of leadership, toning up the governments
and for organizational ground work. He
had tried different models on the basis
of the situations prevailing in different
states. The new poll managers were rather
late to realise the difficulty of
sustaining the tempo of such a
high-pitched campaign for so long. Once
the 13 big ticket Advani rallies are
launched, you will need a set of
downstream programmes to keep up the
'hawa'.
The BJP's decision to put off as many as
ten rallies had come later in the day
after hard calculations of the ground
reality. Even the budget session of
Parliament was mentioned in defence of
the campaign pause. With the regional
parties and Congress refusing to waste
their energy so early, local BJP leaders
had reported lukewarm response to the
mobilization plans. They all have
reported formation of booth-level
committees. But in the absence of the
poll mood, they just remain a list of
names. Another worry was that the rallies
and campaigns in states like UP,
Jharkhand, AP and Maharashtra will
distract assembly election campaign in
Karnataka, Rajasthan, MP and Chhatisgarh
where the BJP has a bigger stake.
Another issue is what to do with the
publicity vehicles equipped with videos
and pamphlets. From this month they are
supposed to cover 360 selected Lok Sabha
constituencies. As Mahajan had discovered
four years back, there cannot be a
single-format campaign for the whole of
India. Publicity will have to be
customised for each state. And by the
time the BJP's vehicles move on, the
focus may have to be changed. The results
first in Karnataka and then in Rajasthan,
MP and Chhatisgarh will have to be
factored in any serious campaign for the
next year's general election. It now
transpires that much of the new
programmes are lifts from the old Mahajan
manuals. But it has overlooked manual's
emphasis on micro management form state
to village level.
Vajpayee's indispensability will be felt
in two more crucial areas. Last year
Advani had staged sort of a coup d'etat
on the India-US nuclear deal after a
couple of meetings with US envoy David
Mulford. Vajpayee had effectively
intervened when those like Yashwant
Sinha, Arun Shourie and Joshi rushed to
him for help. And the party finally stood
by its original position. Similar course
corrections during and after the NDA
government, had saved the party from
extremes. With the RSS establishment too
weak and intellectually ill-equipped, who
will perform the function of an in-house
apex court?
Before last month's national council
meeting, there has been much hype about
the repackaging of Advani as a moderate.
By instinct or design, this did not
happen. The message he gave at recent
rallies reflected an increasingly tough
Hindutva image - POTA, Setu.
'appeasement', Taslima, etc. This raises
the question about the effectiveness of
Sushma Swaraj's efforts to expand the NDA
which is now reduced to the JD(U), BJD,
Akalis and Shiv Sena. A paper before
Swaraj has identified the AGP, AIADMK,
TMC, TRS, INLD, JMM and Panthers' Party
as possible targets. Excessive stress on
hard line Hindutva will scare them away
especially when the alliance remains far
from the striking distance. (IPA)
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