EDITORIAL
Electricity
to all
While dedicating the
Dulhasti power project to the nation Prime Minister
Manmohan Singh has once again revived the dream of
ensuring electricity to all hamlets in the state. He has
recalled the promise he had made to the people during his
first visit to the state after becoming the Prime
Minister: "I had pledged to end dark and shivering
nights. Today we are implementing this assurance."
He has left no doubt that there is still a long way to
go. Referring to the state's tremendous hydel potential
Dr Singh has estimated that it is worth about 14000
megawatt (MW). Of this, according to him, only 1865 MW
has been exploited so far. The remaining 90 per cent
remains unutilised. Very rightly the Prime Minister has
emphasised the need for overall expansion and. ..more
For
the better
For too long we in this
state have been exposed to horrible incidents of
fratricide or fragging. Much to our chagrin these have
occurred mostly in uniformed forces. For a change now we
have come across a better tale from the same spectrum of
society. A police man has worked overtime to encourage
his militant brother to undergo a change of heart.
According to a report in this newspaper a "deputy
district commander" of Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT) in
higher reaches of this region was planning to surrender
for some time. He was able to send a .......more
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Return
of Kashmiri Pandits
By K.N. Pandita
On 25 April
2008, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh opened the
engineering marvel of a cantilever bridge over the
furious Chenab at Akhnoor. It connects Jammu with
sensitive Rajouri and Poonch regions. From strategic and
commercial point of view this is a landmark achievement......more
Sensex
likely to rebound
By Dr Bharat Jhunjhunwala
'Which way
Sensex?' is the question uppermost in the minds of
investors today. Some analysts anticipate a fall to
12,500 levels. Two factors that augur in favour of
decline are problems of our exporters and outflow of
portfolio investments. Indeed, sectors like IT and
Basmati Rice will face pressure due to decline in the US
economy. ...more
Peace
dividends of nostalgic native sons
By Mahendra Ved
GAH, a little
village that lies between Islamabad and Lahore in
Pakistan, is hoping to welcome its best-known son,
India's Prime Minister Manmohan Singh. It has waited
since President Pervez Musharraf, on inviting Manmohan,
had it declared a "model village" and provided,
among other amenities; streetlights. The wait may end.
Manmohan ..more
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EDITORIAL
Electricity to all
While dedicating the
Dulhasti power project to the nation Prime Minister
Manmohan Singh has once again revived the dream of
ensuring electricity to all hamlets in the state. He has
recalled the promise he had made to the people during his
first visit to the state after becoming the Prime
Minister: "I had pledged to end dark and shivering
nights. Today we are implementing this assurance."
He has left no doubt that there is still a long way to
go. Referring to the state's tremendous hydel potential
Dr Singh has estimated that it is worth about 14000
megawatt (MW). Of this, according to him, only 1865 MW
has been exploited so far. The remaining 90 per cent
remains unutilised. Very rightly the Prime Minister has
emphasised the need for overall expansion and improvement
in power sector whether it is generation, transmission or
distribution. However, the Prime Minister's guess about
total available water resources is at variance with what
has been generally believed so far. It is not known
whether it is based on some recent official survey. The
Planning Commission's first Jammu and Kashmir Development
Report has noted a few years ago: "The state has a
huge hydel potential estimated at 20000 MW of which less
than 10 per cent has been exploited so far." It also
refers to other resources: "Among the primary
sources of commercial energy, Jammu and Kashmir has
proven reserves of coal and lignite. The production of
non-coking coal in 1999-2000 was 28 thousand tonne and
lignite reserves in the state were 128 million
tonne." Hydel energy is the cheapest of them all.
The State Government's economic survey for 2007-08
presents nearly identical picture. It says: "The
estimate hydro potential of the state is 20000 MW of
which 16480 MW has been identified. Our of the identified
potential only 1478.70 MW or 9 per cent have been
exploited till the end of the Five Year Plan 2006-07
consisting of 308.70 MW in state sector from 18 power
projects and 1170 MW from two power projects under
central sector (690 MW from Salal and 480 MW from
Uri)."
One is sure that the
record will be set right now that the Prime Minister
himself has intervened. For the present it does not
really matter how much water we have at our disposal.
There is plenty of it which is visible even to the naked
eye. In fact, our condition is such that we can rhyme the
famous excerpts of a poem: "Water, water,
everywhere; nor any drop to drink." We can't
fully utilise the nature's generous bounty for power
generation mainly because of the Indus Water Treaty. We
are prohibited from building storage reservoirs. Per
force we have to settle for run-of-the-river schemes. It
means that even if we raise the installed capacity we are
handicapped for a considerable part of the year. We can't
totally employ it during winters when our snow-fed rivers
recede. Nevertheless we have to keep trying and make the
best of the present scenario. At the same time we should
put in efforts to persuade Pakistan to revise the Indus
Treaty. For its part the neighbouring country should also
realise that it is not a gainer either because of this
bilateral arrangement. On the one hand it has burnt its
fingers over the Baglihar issue. It is on the other hand
facing popular discontent after the construction of the
Mangla dam over the Jhelum river. If the two countries
have a second look at the Treaty taking into account
their sky-rocketing needs both of them stand to gain
immensely.
Undoubtedly this will help
the state to refurbish its image and provide light to all
houses. The Planning Commission is correct in its
appraisal: "The power sector in Jammu and Kashmir is
one of the most under-developed. It has not only been
unable to keep pace with the growing demand but its
supply to ultimate consumers has also been poor. In
addition to large unexplored potential, inadequate
transmission and distribution network, huge transmission
and distribution (T&D) losses, low power tariff,
power thefts as well as long gestation period of the
power projects have contributed to the dismal
situation." Viewed in this context the Dulhasti
comes like a whiff of fresh air. Let us learn from our
experience from this project and vigorously pursue the
task of meeting our requirements on our own steam.
Simultaneously we should form incontrovertible
conclusions about our potential. A strong foundation in
all respects is essential for converting the state into a
well-lit edifice.
For the better
For too long we in this
state have been exposed to horrible incidents of
fratricide or fragging. Much to our chagrin these have
occurred mostly in uniformed forces. For a change now we
have come across a better tale from the same spectrum of
society. A police man has worked overtime to encourage
his militant brother to undergo a change of heart.
According to a report in this newspaper a "deputy
district commander" of Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT) in
higher reaches of this region was planning to surrender
for some time. He was able to send a message about his
desire to his brother who is a police constable. The
latter in turn informed his senior authorities: they gave
confidence to him to facilitate the exercise. In the
meantime, the other militants became aware of their
colleague's plans. They disarmed him and decided to get
rid of him if he went ahead with his mission. However,
the police constable was unrelenting in his pursuit. He
followed every tip in order to be close to the LeT module
holding his brother in captivity. One night he succeeded.
He was able to spot the militants and secure the release
of his brother after they fell asleep. Accompanied by his
savour-brother the militant surrendered before the first
available unit of the Army after his escape. He had taken
to the gun back in 2001 but wanted to shun the path of
violence after having realised its futility.
One more militant has thus
joined the swelling ranks of those local young persons
who have come over-ground after a stint with obnoxious
activity. It is only too well known that there are also a
number of them waiting across the Line of Control (LoC)
for homecoming. Clearly they have understood that they
have been cruelly taken for a ride by wicked forces
inimical to them and this country. A way has to be found
for them to return to normal life. We must willingly keep
our doors open for converts to peace and harmonious human
relations.
.
Return of
Kashmiri Pandits
By K.N.
Pandita
On 25 April 2008,
Prime Minister Manmohan Singh
opened the engineering marvel of
a cantilever bridge over the
furious Chenab at Akhnoor. It
connects Jammu with sensitive
Rajouri and Poonch regions. From
strategic and commercial point of
view this is a landmark
achievement.
The opening ceremony
of the bridge will be remembered
in history of the state and the
nation for yet another landmark
achievement. It is prime
minister's bold and open
statement of his government's
decisive policy of rehabilitating
more than fifty thousand
internally displaced Kashmiri
Hindu families back in the
valley.
For the first time
ever since militancy erupted in
the valley in 1990, forcing the
minority and the nationalists to
leave their home and hearth, the
Prime Minister of India has
announced a comprehensive package
for their return and
rehabilitation. It has set at
rest all ambiguities and
speculations, fears and
apprehensions, hopes and
frustration that bedeviled the
victims for two decades in the
past.
Cynics may label
PM's announcement as election
stunt. Let us not forget that the
statement has come from the Prime
Minister of India made in a huge
public rally and conspicuously
carried by international media in
headlines.
Prime Minister's
public speech at Akhnoor is very
significant from many aspects. It
shows he has come to the
brass-tacks while reflecting on
the issue. The statement does not
only give the displaced Hindus of
Kashmir their proper place and
status in the social fabric of
the country but also sharply
reiterates the responsibility of
those who are at the helm of
affairs to facilitate their
return.
While the PM and his
advisors rightfully take the
credit of rolling out a pragmatic
and levelheaded approach to the
complex issue of Kashmir
displaced persons, Pandit
organizations at Jammu, Delhi and
other parts of the country and
abroad, too, deserve a pat for
their sustained effort of
projecting the suffering of the
affected people of the community
and seeking redress.
The Pandits should
hail PM's public announcement as
a very positive and a very
constructive measure on the part
of the union Government.
Obviously, the union
government will formally
constitute an official draft
committee to draw the plan of
return and rehabilitation in the
light of the guidelines announced
by the Prime Minister in his
Akhnoor speech. Hopefully, the
affected party will be co-opted
for drawing the blue print of the
scheme.
The displaced
persons, no doubt, would like
that not only the local political
leadership and elders of valley's
civil society but also the
separatist leadership of various
hues in the valley to be the
components of the draft
committee. Good will of the
majority population is the first
pre-requisite for making the
return and rehabilitation plan a
success. A brisk exchange of good
will missions from either side
should not be ruled out.
The Prime Minister
indicated that New Delhi had
asked the State Government to
identify land for raising
habitats and localities where the
returnees would be re-located. As
we know, local civil society
would justifiably like healthy
integration of people of
different faiths and ideologies.
In the long run, a harmonious
civil structure is the best
guarantee against the assaults or
subversion by anti-social
elements. This, however, does not
mean that the Government and its
security apparatus will lower the
guard in view of our experience
in the recent past.
It is heartening to
know that the Prime Minister has
spoken briefly but eloquently on
the economic and social aspect of
the entire issue. Assistance by
the Government for relocation in
the valley and providing means of
sustenance are integral to the
comprehensive scheme of
rehabilitation. The PM has gone
to the length of announcing even
the quantum of package, which by
all means is not discouraging and
can be enhanced as things begin
to move in right direction.
In all probability,
it appears that the recent visit
of Congress chairperson, Sonia
Gandhi to Jagti in Jammu has been
a catalyst to the big and bold
policy decision publicly
announced by the Prime Minster.
The contribution of the State
Government particularly the Chief
Minister is by no means
insignificant.
It is heartening to
know that after a long but
distressful wait, the national
leadership has realized what the
Pandits had been emphasizing all
these years ---- that return and
rehabilitation of the Hindus back
to the valley with respect and
dignity, with fair and just
treatment and with adequate
safeguards of security and
economic survival is a much
needed proof of the viability and
strength of our secularist
profile. As long as the Hindus
remained hounded out from their
native land, India's claim of
Kashmir being a model of her
secularism looked remained very
fragile. The return of the native
will, undoubtedly, mark the
return of normalcy to Kashmir and
the victory of the forces of
secular democracy.
(The writer is the
former Director of Centre of
Central Asian Studies, Kashmir
University)
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Sensex
likely to rebound
By Dr Bharat Jhunjhunwala
'Which
way Sensex?' is the question uppermost in the
minds of investors today. Some analysts
anticipate a fall to 12,500 levels. Two factors
that augur in favour of decline are problems of
our exporters and outflow of portfolio
investments. Indeed, sectors like IT and Basmati
Rice will face pressure due to decline in the US
economy. But this may be only temporary. Just as
the patient has to be hospitalized for a few days
for operation to be performed and for restoring
his health; similarly our exports will be
temporarily hit till we find alternate markets.
The
central question is whether the lack of demand
from the US is part of a larger global
phenomenon; or it is a stand-alone event that may
actually lead to an increase in demand from other
countries. Weak demand from the US that we see
today is the result of lower wages and lesser
purchasing power in the hands of its consumers.
This is because wages of workers across the globe
are moving towards a uniform lower level. Textile
factories in the US have almost wholly closed
down because they are unable to compete with low
cost production from developing countries like
China and India. The wages of an unskilled worker
in the US are about Rs 4,000 per day at present.
The corresponding wage in India is Rs 150 per
day. Both are moving towards a common middle
level of, say, Rs 250. This is leading to a sharp
decline in purchasing power of the US workers
which is reflected in less demand for our exports
and is creating problems for our exporters. But
another factor is at work simultaneously. Wages
in developing countries are moving upward. The
upward movement is small but the numbers involved
is large hence the total impact may be somewhat
similar. Workers in developing countries are
demanding more goods. The sharp increase in trade
between developing countries and growth of the
mall culture are indications that new demand is
being generated.
Pessimists
argue that Indian economy may get locked into
stagnation as has happened to Japan. That country
has been in a near-recession since 1988.
Reduction in Japan's exports to the US has not
been compensated by generation of new demand
elsewhere. The argument is that if this did not
happen to Japan, it may not happen to India. I do
not think that is the case. There is a
fundamental difference between Japanese and
Indian economies. Wages in Japan are closer to
the global maximum while they are closer to
global minimum in India. Japan is unable to
penetrate new markets such as of Brazil and South
Africa because its cost of production is high.
Wages in India are less hence we do not face this
problem. Rather, Japan is in trouble because
wages are low in India and the newly emerging
markets are being captured by us.
Another
argument in favour of decline in sensex is that
the share of developed countries in the world
income is about 80 percent. Recession in this
huge area will impact the developing countries
just like a flood uproots the small plants in the
garden. Some adverse impact on India cannot be
denied. However, the depth of this impact will
depend upon the rate of growth of new markets. My
assessment is that a fundamental change in the
world economy is afoot. The share of the
developed countries will speedily contract while
that of the developing countries will rise. Let
us not forget that India and China accounted for
nearly one-half of the world income in the
seventeenth century. This declined to about five
percent at the end of Second World War. Now the
reverse is happening. According to the World
Development Indicators published by the World
Bank, the share of 'High Income' countries in
global GDP was 82.3 percent in 1990. It has
declined to 77.7 percent in 2005. The present
crisis in America may see speeding of this trend.
The development of new markets may compensate for
the losses in US markets.
Indications
of opposite effects of the slowdown on US and
India are available. The rate of interest is
being reduced in US and UK. They want to make
credit cheap so that businesses can borrow easily
and invest. The opposite is happening in India.
The Reserve Bank of India has recently increased
Cash Reserve Ratio which is another way of
raising interest rates. This gives an indication
that America's loss is India's gain. Businesses
are moving from America to developing countries.
Manufacture of cars has largely shifted and that
of textiles, shoes and toys almost wholly so.
Banking and finance is also moving. Jobs are
being cut in the developed countries while new
appointments are being made in India. The
developed countries are reducing interest rates
to keep their businesses from moving; while India
is raising interest rates to slow down more
businesses from opening. This is sufficient
indication that the decline of the US is more in
the nature of readjustment of the global economy
and is not an indicator of an all-pervasive
decline.
We
must assess the recent decline in the Sensex from
21,000 to 15-17,000 in this backdrop. This
decline was precipitated by foreign investors
becoming sellers to the extent of Rs 700 crores
in the first half of April. My assessment is that
this will be short lived. Indian share markets
are impacted in two contrary ways by the decline
of United States. The immediate impact is
negative. American banks need monies to make do
their losses in the US. They are liquidating
their holdings in India to remit money back home.
This is the immediate impact. But another
tendency is at work simultaneously. The decline
in the US dollar has made that currency
untouchable for the global investors. The world
banking system is flush with funds. Interest
rates are near zero in Japan. Oil exporting
countries are earning huge amounts from oil. They
need to invest this income. They are looking for
safe havens. My assessment is that India will
emerge as a desired destination. The rupee is
rising vis-à-vis the dollar. This means that
global investors would be well advised to sell
dollar-denominated stocks and buy
rupee-denominated stocks. The remittance by
American banks should be assessed in this
backdrop. An example will explain. If there is an
epidemic in a city, some persons move towards the
affected city to take care of their elderly. But
most flee away. The remittance being made by US
banks is like the family members moving into
troubled areas to take care of the elderly. This
is not the main tendency. It may take some time
for the new inflows into the Indian economy to
establish but it is likely to happen. The exit by
American banks does not signal a wider
phenomenon. My assessment is that the decline in
Sensex will be temporary. It will rebound slowly
but surely as the word capital changes its
direction towards India.
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Peace dividends
of nostalgic native sons
By
Mahendra Ved
GAH, a little village that
lies between Islamabad and Lahore in
Pakistan, is hoping to welcome its
best-known son, India's Prime Minister
Manmohan Singh. It has waited since
President Pervez Musharraf, on inviting
Manmohan, had it declared a "model
village" and provided, among other
amenities; streetlights. The wait may
end. Manmohan is likely to visit
Pakistan. Gah might be on his crowded
itinerary. Like one of his peers, I.K.
Gujral, who visited his birthplace,
Jhelum, five decades after he left it
when India was partitioned in 1947.
This is a typical South
Asian story of a people divided:
Musharraf was born in a Delhi by lane and
Zia ul Haq was born in Jalandhar in the
Indian Punjab. Some stories are brutally
cut short. Karachi-born L.K. Advani
records in his just-published memoirs how
Benazir Bhutto, killed last December,
would speak to him only in the Sindhi
language and enjoyed Sindhi food each
time she visited India. The story, with
all its nostalgia for the past and hopes
for the future, will unfold yet again if
Manmohan visits Pakistan in a changed
scenario after the February election,
which has thrown up a new political
leadership.
Musharraf will still be
around to receive him. But my guess is,
Manmohan's substantial talks will be with
premier Syed Yousaf Raza Gilani, besides
the new leadership of Asif Ali Zardari
and Nawaz Sharif. There is a discernible
change, what with Zardari willing to
"agree to disagree" on the
Kashmir dispute and ready to push trade
and other bilateral ties. When the
hardliners protested, Gilani was forced
to repeat Islamabad's known line on the
issue.
Yet the mood is definitely
conciliatory. New Delhi feels the
dialogue can resume. Foreign Secretary
Shivshankar Menon, followed by Minister
Pranab Mukherjee, scheduled to visit
Islamabad on May 20 and 21, could set the
stage for a summit. Musharrafs invitation
has been pending since 2005. But Indians
cannot easily forget Kargil, the military
misadventure he had undertaken with or
without the consent or knowledge of his
then Prime Minister Sharif. Nor do they
want a repeat of the diplomatic fiasco at
Agra. Then, all through 2007, the
political situation in Pakistan was
unsettled. Now, with an elected
Government in Islamabad, a major hurdle
to visiting Pakistan has been removed. No
dates have been worked out, but senior
officials say Manmohan would prefer to go
before August, when the 60th year of
independence of the subcontinental twins
expires.
Although Manmohan had
earlier been "ready to do
business" with Musharraf, he would
be even more ready to talk to the new
combine having a political mandate. The
dialogue, at least, would be more open,
whatever its outcome. The conditions seem
so propitious that they might even
discuss pulling back from Siachen
glacier, the world's highest battlefield,
where troops have been deployed for the
last 24 years. Both spend billions on
this despite a 2003 cease fire.
Manmohan not only sent a
letter of congratulations to Gilani on
his assumption of office but also
followed it up with a telephone call.
"There is a strong public sentiment
in both our countries in favour of
accelerating the peace process and
establishing a co-operative framework for
our bilateral relations," Manmohan
told him. Gilani agreed. The resumption
of what is called the composite dialogue
that takes in all issues, including
Kashmir, on hold for a year now, will be
one of the first tasks on the bilateral
agenda once the Gilani Government settles
down. For the native of Gah, peace with
Pakistan will probably be the perfect
tale to take to his grandchildren from
his years in office.
But it is not as easy as it
is welcome. A year ago, soon after I
spoke of a solution of the Kashmir
tangle, New Delhi got into a spin over
the civil nuclear deal with the United
States. Things went for a toss in
Pakistan, with the dismissal of the chief
justice. Musharraf had to give priority
to battling homegrown terror right in
Islamabad, over his famous "out of
the box" proposals to resolve issues
with India. With the prospect of a prime
ministerial visit to Pakistan looming
large, expectations from such a trip are,
obviously, high. At the same time, there
is appreciation that political equations
in Pakistan are still to be settled and
the Manmohan government is months away
from a general election.
As of now, New Delhi feels
enthused enough to plan Petroleum
Minister Murli Deora's visit to pick up
threads on the Iran-Pakistan-India gas
pipeline project. More trade is also on
the cards. Mutual confidence-building has
picked up pace through "soft
diplomacy". Exchange of those who
have been long in each other's prisons
has begun. A Pakistani delegation led by
Ansar Burney, a former federal minister
and member of the United Nations Human
Rights Council, discussed the release of
49 prisons who have completed jail terms
in India.
The new Government in
Islamabad is likely to consider a
visa-free regime for Indians, says
Sharief. He told an Indian news channel
'I am of the opinion what we (Pakistan)
should unilaterally announce a visa-free
regime for those Indians who want to
visit Pakistan, whether India
reciprocates this or not. I have spoken
to Zardari Sahab about it and I think he,
too, feels the same.''.
There are happy tidings from
the world of films, too. Bollywood has
just gained a new ''territory'' next door
with Pakistan lifting a 43-year-old ban.
Reciprocally, the first Pakistan film
since 1965, Khuda Ke Liye, has been
released commercially with 100 prints in
110 cinema halls across India. It has
touched Indian hearts for its bold
treatment of a difficult but universal
theme-terrorism. Says writer Khushwant
Singh: ''All the political parties that
won at the polls are inclined to improve
relations with India. We must cash in on
the prevailing mood and more irritants
that continue to jeopardies relations
betten us. " The inveterate optimist
about India-Pakistan relations exhorts:
''If they put out their hands for a
friendly shake, we must respond with a
jhappi, a warm embrace.'' Such an
embrance would augur well for 1.3 billion
people. Great, but I keep my fingers
crossed. CNF
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