EDITORIAL

A new reminder

The bus accident in Mohore tehsil of Reasi district on Sunday has served as yet another grim reminder. We have to substantially improve our mechanism to swiftly tackle such tragedies. In the name of follow-up it is the same old spectacle that we are condemned to witness time and again. Those with serious injuries have been denied timely treatment. They have instead been flown all the way to this city for specialised cure in the Government Medical College and Hospital. There are ten of them, all with critical wounds. One does not require straining one's thinking faculties to a great deal to understand the extent of time wasted in the to-and-fro movement of flying machines. It results in the worsening of injuries. ..more

Good Samaritans

One will appreciate the gesture made by policemen in Udhampur towards one of their colleagues who needed financial assistance for the treatment of a paralytic stroke. Pooling in their resources they have collected Rs one lakh for the purpose. It is a modest amount. Yet, it is something which can't be measured in terms of figures alone. It speaks of concern for fellow colleagues. At a wider level it shows that Good Samaritans are still around. Their presence amidst us is a silver lining at a time when we are in the grip of materialistic ambitions. One hopes that our police dispensation has....more

A pathbreaking judgement

By Sushil Kumar Jain

The 27 per cent quota for Other Backward Castes (OBCs) in centrally-funded educational institutions has been upheld by a Constitution Bench of the Supreme Court after excluding the creamy layer. However, confusion remains over whether quotas would apply to postgraduate courses, such as those at IIMs and IITs. The anti-quota side interpreted the judgement as a "no", but the government ...more

Iraq fires refuse
to die down

By Anirudh Prakash

The Pentagon on the basis of intelligence gathered by the CIA has reported to the US President, Mr. George W. Bush, that the United States lost the war in Iraq. If American commanding officers of general rank, once they go into retirement, say . .....more

Challenges in demand
and supply

By S. Sethuraman

In a swift turnaround, the world economy has not only lost the growth steam but also faces new challenges in overcoming simultaneous threats of a full-blown credit crunch in the financial system and of global growth slowing to a recession with the united States as the epicenter.....more

EDITORIAL

A new reminder

The bus accident in Mohore tehsil of Reasi district on Sunday has served as yet another grim reminder. We have to substantially improve our mechanism to swiftly tackle such tragedies. In the name of follow-up it is the same old spectacle that we are condemned to witness time and again. Those with serious injuries have been denied timely treatment. They have instead been flown all the way to this city for specialised cure in the Government Medical College and Hospital. There are ten of them, all with critical wounds. One does not require straining one's thinking faculties to a great deal to understand the extent of time wasted in the to-and-fro movement of flying machines. It results in the worsening of injuries. Two persons were killed on the spot. Another two died while being airlifted to Jammu taking the total number of casualties to four. Ten injured persons are being treated in the Reasi hospital. The disaster struck them when a mini bus in which they were travelling skidded off the road and plunged into a 300-feet deep nallah. In its sudden downward fall the vehicle hit several rocks. The agony of passengers caught in this situation can be imagined. They must have thought that their fate is sealed from all sides. We must laud the role of local people, police and troops of the Rashtriya Rifles all of whom joined hands to perform rescue operations. Prime facie it appears that the driver lost his control while negotiating a curve. This is not something that has happened for the first time. Human error has contributed to catastrophes like this previously as well. There is either rash driving or overcrowding. Making matters worse are bad roads and dilapidated means of transportation. Off and on these factors have combined to cause havoc in Reasi, Doda, Rajouri and Poonch districts in particular. Whenever there is a mishap in these hilly regions the death toll is invariably high. There is no escape for those who go down into a deep ravine or a stream below.

As a primary step we have to ensure that our district hospitals at least are better equipped to take care of victims of road accidents. The first hour after the mishap is considered "golden hour" for injured persons. If they get prompt aid they can be saved. Trauma centres have been proposed on national highways keeping these contingencies in mind. Our health infrastructure ought to be adequately funded for this purpose. As suggested in these columns earlier also we need to reverse the trend of making the injured travel long distances for healing. The World Health Organisation (WHO) has once made a comment which is quite relevant to us: "The human suffering caused by road crashes is huge - for every victim of a crash, there are family members, friends and communities who must cope with the physical, psychological and economic consequences of the death, injury or disability of a loved one. Crash survivors and their families must cope with the painful and often long-term consequences of injury, disability and rehabilitation. In many cases, the cost of care, the loss of the primary breadwinner, funeral expenses, or the loss of income due to disability can drive a family into poverty." At least once the WHO has adopted "road safety is no accident" as the theme for its annual World Health Day. Its findings must be taken seriously: (a) road crashes are the second leading cause of death globally among young people aged five to 29 and the third leading cause of death among people aged 30 to 44 years; (b) they kill 1.2 million people every year and injure or disable as many as 50 million more; (c) in low and middle-income countries, the cost of road traffic injuries is estimated at US $ 65 billion, exceeding the total amount these countries receive in development assistance; (d) road traffic injuries cost countries between 1 per cent and 2 per cent of gross national product, amounting to US $ 518 billion every year; and (e) the people who are most at risk of being involved in low and middle-income countries are pedestrians, cyclists, motorcyclists and users of public transport. It was in 2004 that the WHO had concluded that road traffic deaths would increase by 80 per cent in countries like ours in 2020 unless corrective measures are taken.

Road safety has to be a planned action. We have to improve designs of our roads and vehicles. At the same time we have to be cautious about the use of seat-belts, helmets and dangers of speed and drunken driving. In our milieu there are two other requirements. We have already laid emphasis on one --- making provision for quick medical service. The other is that law-enforcing agencies have to evoke respect for their uniform to ensue that everybody sticks to the earmarked route.

Good Samaritans

One will appreciate the gesture made by policemen in Udhampur towards one of their colleagues who needed financial assistance for the treatment of a paralytic stroke. Pooling in their resources they have collected Rs one lakh for the purpose. It is a modest amount. Yet, it is something which can't be measured in terms of figures alone. It speaks of concern for fellow colleagues. At a wider level it shows that Good Samaritans are still around. Their presence amidst us is a silver lining at a time when we are in the grip of materialistic ambitions. One hopes that our police dispensation has developed systematic devices to take care of emergencies like this. It is common these days for organised social and administrative groups to have regular welfare funds. These kitties are sustained by fixed periodical contributions. So far as government bodies are concerned they may also have an added advantage. Invariably they have discretionary amounts at their disposal to be spent on grounds of compassion. There is yet another instrumentality which can come in handy during crises. It is health insurance which is available both for individuals and a bunch of them. This concept has been slow in taking off in our country. Planners have often expressed their worry that even today not more than 10 per cent of eligible persons have enlisted themselves for this scheme. They have held quite a few seminars to put it in proper perspective.

Our idea of dwelling on these themes is simply to create awareness. There is a lot that is available and can be done to take care of adverse economic fall-out of unforeseen health crises. Surely the cops in Udhampur have followed one such way.



A pathbreaking judgement

By Sushil Kumar Jain

The 27 per cent quota for Other Backward Castes (OBCs) in centrally-funded educational institutions has been upheld by a Constitution Bench of the Supreme Court after excluding the creamy layer. However, confusion remains over whether quotas would apply to postgraduate courses, such as those at IIMs and IITs. The anti-quota side interpreted the judgement as a "no", but the government has decided to seek clarifications from the court on the matter.

The five-member Bench delivered four judgments. One judgment, by Justice Dalveer Bhandari, says, "Once a candidate graduates from a university, the said candidate is educationally forward and is ineligible for special benefits…for postgraduate and any further studies thereafter." This view, however, is not endorsed by Chief Justice K.G. Balakrishnan in his judgment. The third judgment by Justices Arijit Pasayat and C.K. Thakker says graduation should be used as a criterion to judge the backwardness or otherwise of a community.

The court’s consent for rolling out quota was given after a nine-judge bench of the Supreme Court, 16-years ago, ruled in favour of OBC job reservations in the Indira Sawhney case in 1992. In this context, the OBC quota in higher education is only a natural extension of the principle.

The ‘social justice’ parties that have been complaining that not enough was being done will come out with all guns blazing. The Opposition will also use the issue to ram in its point that the government did not make a sincere effort on the quota front. All this could not have come at a more inopportune time for the Congress as it is in the midst of preparing for election in Karnataka. The quota debate will be a distraction for the party as it will have to concentrate on cooling tempers within the alliance over the quota judgment.

For those politicians who had built their entire careers by practising backward politics, the apex court judgement denying creamy layer among OBCs the benefits of reservation in higher educational institutions has come as a jolt.

The ruling on the principle of creamy layer, which had remained unimplemented so far because of stiff resistance from the quota brigade, made a strong pitch for excluding the well-off among these sections. More important, it has raised serious questions about the kind of politics practised by quota enthusiasts so far. While recognisable OBC faces in the country’s political circuit, including leaders such as Lalu Prasad Yadav, Mulayam Singh Yadav and S. Ramadoss may lose out, a large section is bound to benefit.

"By excluding those who have already attained economic well being or educational advancement, the special benefits provided under these clauses cannot be further extended to them and, if done so, it would be unreasonable, discriminatory or arbitrary, resulting in reserve discrimination," the Bench observed.

That the fruits of quota have so far been enjoyed primarily by dominant backward castes such as Yadavs, Kurmis, Mauryas, Lodhs, Vanniyars, Idigas and sections of Vaishyas, leaving out Middle Backward Classes (MBCs). This has over the years created a deep resentment among the latter category, who have seen no change in the socio-economic or educational status. In states such as Bihar, they have emerged as a powerful block and given vent to their ire by voting against RJD, which had projected itself as a powerful champion of Backward Class empowerment, but failed to satisfy aspirations of MBCs.

If the creamy layer principle is not applied, it could easily be said that all the castes that have been included among socially and educationally backward classes (SEBC) have been included exclusively on the basis of caste. Identification of SEBC for the purpose of either Article 15(4), 15(5) or 16(4) solely on the basis of caste is expressly prohibited by various decisions of the Supreme Court and it is also against Article 15(1) and Article 16(1) of the Constitution.

The point is not that affirmative action in higher education be junked. Rather, that the system of caste-based quotas, which has become divisive and self-defeating, be replaced by a more transparent and effective mechanism. Some experts have suggested replacing the prevailing system of fixed caste quotas with a mechanism that would award booster points for different orders (social, cultural, regional, linguistic, and economic) of backwardness while evaluating on merit candidates seeking admission to higher education institutions. This would give truly deprived members of intermediate castes a head-start over their more empowered competitors without dividing society.

Empirical evidence proves that middle castes have not been as historically hamstrung by extra-economic biases such as untouchability and cultural ostracism as SC/STs. That said, real empowerment can be achieved only by breaking the traditional caste-occupation correlation. That would re-invent and canonise traditional skills as modern knowledge even as the economy undergoes rapid structural diversification to include those skills in the formal sector and ascribe proper value to them.

The court expressed concern at the disturbing trend of more and more communities queuing up to assert their status as backward classes to get the benefit of reservation. "Nowhere in the world do castes, classes or communities queue up for the sake of gaining backward status. Nowhere else in the world is there a competition to assert backwardness," said the court while justifying the concept of the creamy layer evolved in the Mandal case to keep out the better-off section of OBCs from the purview of reservation in jobs.

The OBCs, whose aspirations had been raised by the UPA government’s decision to extend the quota net to higher educational institutions, had been left high-and-dry after the latest judgment. They were, according to the thinking in the saffron outfit, cut up with the Congress in particular for authoring the project without any proper homework.

Some have proposed the inclusion of economic criteria: this is something of an improvement, but does not go far enough. What we needed, was space to design more effective mechanisms of targeting groups that need to be targeted for affirmative action. For instance, there are a couple of well designed deprivation indices that do a much better job of targeting the relevant social deprivations and picking out merit. The government’s action is disappointing because it prematurely foreclosed these possibilities. In foreclosing these possibilities the government has revealed that it cares about tokenism more than social justice. It has sent the signal that there is no room for thinking about social justice in a new paradigm. INAV




Iraq fires refuse to die down

By Anirudh Prakash

The Pentagon on the basis of intelligence gathered by the CIA has reported to the US President, Mr. George W. Bush, that the United States lost the war in Iraq. If American commanding officers of general rank, once they go into retirement, say the Iraq war is lost or if the vast majority of the American people say it is not worth fighting, does that mean the USA has lost? When someone loses someone else wins-there are no "draws" or runners-up in war. If America has lost, does that mean Saddam won? How can a man who was hanged in sight of the whole world win a war from beyond his grave? It is all very strange in this most abominable of all wars.

In the Battle of Borodino in 1812, the Russians under Marshall Mikhail Kutusov withdrew and the French held the field of battle at end of day-the single bloodiest day of warfare in modern times with between 66,500 and 125,000 casualties including several dozen generals. Though the French won, it signalled the end of French power and fall of Napoleon. Borodino was a Pyrrhic victory.

Marshall Kutusov, against his generals’ advice, and courting extreme unpopularity with St. Petersburg, continued to withdraw after Borodino and declined to give battle to defend Moscow itself. His remaining forces and most of the civilian population withdrew beyond Moscow. The city was emptied and allowed to burn. The French took it without a fight, Napoleon entered and tried to feel himself its ruler, his generals tried to create a cooperative local government from among the remaining residents.

Kutusov waited, waited and waited some more without giving battle. Then one day, some months later, just as Kutusov had been praying, news came that Napoleon and the French had gotten up and left. Napoleon’s retreat was the biggest catastrophe his Grande Armee suffered, and they were harassed by Russian attacks all the way to the border.

Saddam was reported to have had two Russian generals advising his army, who quietly left before the Anglo-American attack occurred. Russian generals learn about Kutusov on mother’s knee. Even Stalin invoked Kutusov’s name when his 1939 pact with Hitler had failed and Hitler attacked Russia on 22 June 1941. Iraq had both Nazi and Soviet influences.

Saddam’s propaganda spokesmen in the early stages of the March 2003 invasion alluded to a Kutusov-like defensive doctrine: "the US and British administrations have depended on their strategy and planning based on the information obtained from the traitors, whom they call opposition, and from some intelligence services of some Arab countries… They said: "Let some missiles be fired for the maximum of three days and then everything would be over." Therefore, we find them in a state of confusion. They prevent the media from having access to the facts about the military operations under security pretexts. They say that they are heading towards Baghdad and that they covered more than 160 or 180 km towards Baghdad. I would like to tell them, that in the course that they are following, let them continue up to 300 km and let them mobilise all the tanks and marines they have, and we will not clash with them soon. We will give them enough time. However, in any contact with any Iraqi village or city, they will find what they are now witnessing in Umm Qasr and Suq al-Shuyukh." Iraq’s Army did a vanishing act, men and materials disappeared, Baghdad fell without fighting.

What we may have been witnessing ever since the Bush/Blair attack on Iraq is the outcome of a clash between the doctrines of Clausewitz on the American side and Kutusov on the Iraqi/Russian side.

American forces began with "Shock and Awe", followed by disbanding Iraq’s Army and banning the Baathists. Then came "Light Footprint" or "War Tourism", where American forces left their bases only for specific jaunts outside, while attempting to create a new "Iraqi" Army in an American image. Recently, the purported strategy has changed again to "Clear, Hold, Build" requiring the current infantry "surge" of 30,000 extra troops to try to pacify specific Baghdad neighbourhoods and then "build" political institutions.

Thirty years ago, Professor W.B. Gallie pointed to the contradiction Clausewitz had been unable to reconcile: "All commentators are agreed that Clausewitz’s greatest difficulty was to explain the relationship between (Absolute War and War as a Political Instrument)", Philosophers of peace and war, Cambridge University Press 1978. War-making as destruction and war-making as politics are incompatible. The cruelties of Iraq may explain and demonstrate the root of this contradiction most clearly: defeated, disarmed and destroyed victims of an Absolute War are hardly going to feel themselves agreeable to then being manipulated into any political institutions or agreements designed by the perpetrators of the violence. You cannot declare "Absolute War" on Fallujah, kill or arrest every able-bodied male citizen there, and then expect Fallujah’s women, children and old people to participate happily in town hall meetings you wish them to hold. "America has lost because it has not behaved like a great nation", said one ordinary Iraqi initially in favour of Saddam’s overthrow. America’s retired generals are saying Iraq has been America’s greatest strategic defeat.

The result of the clash between the two doctrines of war has been 30,000 American casualties (dead and wounded at about 1:8), while Iraqi dead exceed 650,000 with millions more wounded, rendered homeless or made refugees. Future historians may speak of a genocide having occurred in Iraq.

Did Saddam win if the Americans have lost? Of course not. Iraq had its Mir Jafars, and Saddam was at most a Shiraj, not even that given his odious past. Iraq now has its Tippus, Bhagat Singhs and Khudi Rams as well.

"The Resistance is the natural reaction to any occupation. All occupations in history faced a resistance. Occupation is no for developing people and making them better. It is for humiliating people, and chaining them and taking their freedom and fortunes away. These are my convictions which make me feel that this occupation is an insult to me and my people." Such was what an anonymous Resistance officer told the Australian journalist Michael Ware. INAV




 

Challenges in demand and supply

By S. Sethuraman

In a swift turnaround, the world economy has not only lost the growth steam but also faces new challenges in overcoming simultaneous threats of a full-blown credit crunch in the financial system and of global growth slowing to a recession with the united States as the epicenter.

Grim messages have come out from Washington of USA tipping into a recession, the financial market turmoils spreading to the core of the financial system with losses already estimated at around one trillion dollars, and rising inflation worldwide with soaring food prices triggering riots and unrest in parts of Africa and Asia.

India's growth story is overtaken by rising inflation fuelled by global commodity price boom and the Government, with all its fire-fighting measures under way, must prepare itself for a crisis of longer duration as there will be no let-up in the oil, food and other commodity prices over the next two years. Likewise, as IMF forecasts, India and other emerging markets have to be in readiness to act to respond to spillover from the financial meltdown - a combination of global price pressures, trade slowdown and a fall in capital flows.

IMF has projected the world economy to slow to 3.7 per cent in 2008, without fully taking into account the ramifications of the ongoing financial crisis, which has not shown signs of easing despite massive liquidity injections by central banks and aggressive rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve, This estimate of global growth deceleration is based on US growth slowing to 0.5 per cent this year and 0.6 per cent in 2009 in conditions of housing market collapse and the financial crisis spreading its effects to real economic sectors.

In its World Economic Outlook Update, before leading Finance Ministers from around the world gather in Washington, IMF also notes that world growth would achieve little pickup in 2009, and there is a 25 percent chance that the global economy will record 3 percent or less growth in 2008 and 2009, equivalent to a global recession.

While IMF estimates are in terms of PPP, the corresponding market-based exchange rate estimate is 2.6 per cent, the lowest after five years of steady expansion from the 2001 recession.

The other assumptions in IMF forecast are oil price average at 95 dollars a barrel in 2008 as against 71 dollars in 2007. World trade volume would decline from 6.8 per cent in 2007 (already down from 9.2 per cent in 2006) to 5.6 to 5.8 per cent for the next two years There would be slowdown in exports of emerging economies and developing countries from 8.9 per cent in 2007 to 7.1 per cent while a pickup is expected at 8.7 per cent in 2009..

IMF Chief Economist Simon Johnson said at a press conference on April 9 that "the principal downside risk comes from the possibility that financial strains could deepen." and these strains in markets can quickly become reinforcing and " a negative spiral remains a possibility." The other downside risks include inflation worries, particularly in the wake of soaring commodity prices; large current account surpluses; and the "uneven pattern of exchange rate movement around the world".

India's growth rate in 2008 is set at 7.9 per cent and of China at 9.3 per cent as against last year's 9.2 and 11.4 per cent respectively. Though these and other emerging market economies would help to reduce the global output downturn, IMF officials note, financial market conditions could remain "extremely difficult" until there is greater clarity about extent and distribution of losses on structured products, the off-shoot of the US subprime mortgage market. Current estimate is that these losses could go upto 945 billion dollars.

It is rocky ride for advanced economies, including Euro-zone, and the effects of the current turmoil are likely to be "broader, deeper and more protracted", according to IMF officials who called for "decisive action" to repair the damages with banks raising capital and medium-term financing and advanced economies ensuring stronger regulations and oversight.

Emerging market economies should review reliability in public disclosures of financial institutions and robustness of their accounting frameworks and should have contingency plans for managing liquidity disruptions. Spillovers for emerging markets have so far been less pronounced but capital flows have moderated in recent months and issuance activity remains subdued. With US entering recession, countries trading heavily with USA would be affected.

Inflation risks are higher in emerging market economies, especially in Asia, reflecting the price surge, tight commodity markets and upward drift of core inflation. These countries should be ready to respond to slowing growth and more difficult financing conditions if external environment deteriorates sharply, IMF said.

On India, the IMF outlook report says growth slowed to 8.5 per cent in the second half of 2007 as consumption cooled in response to tighter monetary policy although investment continued at brisk pace. For the region as a whole persistent food price increase could spill over into wages and spark a broader pick up in inflation owing to rising commodity prices. Capital flows for India are projected to slow this year with tightening global financial conditions and weaker export demand and higher financing costs are expected to dampen investment activity. Thus, India's growth has been projected lower at 7.9 per cent while IMF also estimates a wider current account deficit 3.1 per cent of GDP in 2008 and of the same order in 2009.

The global economic outlook has been further clouded by the acceleration in the international food price trends in 2008 and this price surge is not a temporary phenomenon but likely to persist over the medium term, according to the World Bank. What is worse, food riots and demonstrations are taking place in a large number of developing countries across regions in Africa and Asia and UN officials have warned of worldwide unrest threatening political stability.

The World Bank says prices of wheat, rice, maize, soybean and oil would keep rising for the next three years. FAO attributes the present crisis to the failure of developing countries in not promoting farm sector for the last two decades and says the present crisis would undermine poverty gains of the last decade. The Bank suggests options like ensuring household food security by targeted safety nets, by lowering domestic food prices, and measures to stimulate medium-term food supply responses (production), giving agriculture maximum priority. Fiscal deficits could go up with these measures. The Bank says it can scale up financing under existing programmes for safety net and farm output. (IPA Service)

 
 



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