EDITORIAL
A new reminder
The bus accident in Mohore
tehsil of Reasi district on Sunday has served as yet
another grim reminder. We have to substantially improve
our mechanism to swiftly tackle such tragedies. In the
name of follow-up it is the same old spectacle that we
are condemned to witness time and again. Those with
serious injuries have been denied timely treatment. They
have instead been flown all the way to this city for
specialised cure in the Government Medical College and
Hospital. There are ten of them, all with critical
wounds. One does not require straining one's thinking
faculties to a great deal to understand the extent of
time wasted in the to-and-fro movement of flying
machines. It results in the worsening of injuries. Two
persons were killed on the spot. Another two died while
being airlifted to Jammu taking the total number of
casualties to four. Ten injured persons are being treated
in the Reasi hospital. The disaster struck them when a
mini bus in which they were travelling skidded off the
road and plunged into a 300-feet deep nallah. In
its sudden downward fall the vehicle hit several rocks.
The agony of passengers caught in this situation can be
imagined. They must have thought that their fate is
sealed from all sides. We must laud the role of local
people, police and troops of the Rashtriya Rifles all of
whom joined hands to perform rescue operations. Prime
facie it appears that the driver lost his control while
negotiating a curve. This is not something that has
happened for the first time. Human error has contributed
to catastrophes like this previously as well. There is
either rash driving or overcrowding. Making matters worse
are bad roads and dilapidated means of transportation.
Off and on these factors have combined to cause havoc in
Reasi, Doda, Rajouri and Poonch districts in particular.
Whenever there is a mishap in these hilly regions the
death toll is invariably high. There is no escape for
those who go down into a deep ravine or a stream below.
As a primary step we have
to ensure that our district hospitals at least are better
equipped to take care of victims of road accidents. The
first hour after the mishap is considered "golden
hour" for injured persons. If they get prompt aid
they can be saved. Trauma centres have been proposed on
national highways keeping these contingencies in mind.
Our health infrastructure ought to be adequately funded
for this purpose. As suggested in these columns earlier
also we need to reverse the trend of making the injured
travel long distances for healing. The World Health
Organisation (WHO) has once made a comment which is quite
relevant to us: "The human suffering caused by road
crashes is huge - for every victim of a crash, there are
family members, friends and communities who must cope
with the physical, psychological and economic
consequences of the death, injury or disability of a
loved one. Crash survivors and their families must cope
with the painful and often long-term consequences of
injury, disability and rehabilitation. In many cases, the
cost of care, the loss of the primary breadwinner,
funeral expenses, or the loss of income due to disability
can drive a family into poverty." At least once the
WHO has adopted "road safety is no accident" as
the theme for its annual World Health Day. Its findings
must be taken seriously: (a) road crashes are the second
leading cause of death globally among young people aged
five to 29 and the third leading cause of death among
people aged 30 to 44 years; (b) they kill 1.2 million
people every year and injure or disable as many as 50
million more; (c) in low and middle-income countries, the
cost of road traffic injuries is estimated at US $ 65
billion, exceeding the total amount these countries
receive in development assistance; (d) road traffic
injuries cost countries between 1 per cent and 2 per cent
of gross national product, amounting to US $ 518 billion
every year; and (e) the people who are most at risk of
being involved in low and middle-income countries are
pedestrians, cyclists, motorcyclists and users of public
transport. It was in 2004 that the WHO had concluded that
road traffic deaths would increase by 80 per cent in
countries like ours in 2020 unless corrective measures
are taken.
Road safety has to be a
planned action. We have to improve designs of our roads
and vehicles. At the same time we have to be cautious
about the use of seat-belts, helmets and dangers of speed
and drunken driving. In our milieu there are two other
requirements. We have already laid emphasis on one ---
making provision for quick medical service. The other is
that law-enforcing agencies have to evoke respect for
their uniform to ensue that everybody sticks to the
earmarked route.
Good Samaritans
One will appreciate the
gesture made by policemen in Udhampur towards one of
their colleagues who needed financial assistance for the
treatment of a paralytic stroke. Pooling in their
resources they have collected Rs one lakh for the
purpose. It is a modest amount. Yet, it is something
which can't be measured in terms of figures alone. It
speaks of concern for fellow colleagues. At a wider level
it shows that Good Samaritans are still around. Their
presence amidst us is a silver lining at a time when we
are in the grip of materialistic ambitions. One hopes
that our police dispensation has developed systematic
devices to take care of emergencies like this. It is
common these days for organised social and administrative
groups to have regular welfare funds. These kitties are
sustained by fixed periodical contributions. So far as
government bodies are concerned they may also have an
added advantage. Invariably they have discretionary
amounts at their disposal to be spent on grounds of
compassion. There is yet another instrumentality which
can come in handy during crises. It is health insurance
which is available both for individuals and a bunch of
them. This concept has been slow in taking off in our
country. Planners have often expressed their worry that
even today not more than 10 per cent of eligible persons
have enlisted themselves for this scheme. They have held
quite a few seminars to put it in proper perspective.
Our idea of dwelling on
these themes is simply to create awareness. There is a
lot that is available and can be done to take care of
adverse economic fall-out of unforeseen health crises.
Surely the cops in Udhampur have followed one such way.
A
pathbreaking judgement
By Sushil Kumar Jain
The
27 per cent quota for Other Backward Castes
(OBCs) in centrally-funded educational
institutions has been upheld by a Constitution
Bench of the Supreme Court after excluding the
creamy layer. However, confusion remains over
whether quotas would apply to postgraduate
courses, such as those at IIMs and IITs. The
anti-quota side interpreted the judgement as a
"no", but the government has decided to
seek clarifications from the court on the matter.
The
five-member Bench delivered four judgments. One
judgment, by Justice Dalveer Bhandari, says,
"Once a candidate graduates from a
university, the said candidate is educationally
forward and is ineligible for special
benefits
for postgraduate and any further
studies thereafter." This view, however, is
not endorsed by Chief Justice K.G. Balakrishnan
in his judgment. The third judgment by Justices
Arijit Pasayat and C.K. Thakker says graduation
should be used as a criterion to judge the
backwardness or otherwise of a community.
The
courts consent for rolling out quota was
given after a nine-judge bench of the Supreme
Court, 16-years ago, ruled in favour of OBC job
reservations in the Indira Sawhney case in 1992.
In this context, the OBC quota in higher
education is only a natural extension of the
principle.
The
social justice parties that have been
complaining that not enough was being done will
come out with all guns blazing. The Opposition
will also use the issue to ram in its point that
the government did not make a sincere effort on
the quota front. All this could not have come at
a more inopportune time for the Congress as it is
in the midst of preparing for election in
Karnataka. The quota debate will be a distraction
for the party as it will have to concentrate on
cooling tempers within the alliance over the
quota judgment.
For
those politicians who had built their entire
careers by practising backward politics, the apex
court judgement denying creamy layer among OBCs
the benefits of reservation in higher educational
institutions has come as a jolt.
The
ruling on the principle of creamy layer, which
had remained unimplemented so far because of
stiff resistance from the quota brigade, made a
strong pitch for excluding the well-off among
these sections. More important, it has raised
serious questions about the kind of politics
practised by quota enthusiasts so far. While
recognisable OBC faces in the countrys
political circuit, including leaders such as Lalu
Prasad Yadav, Mulayam Singh Yadav and S. Ramadoss
may lose out, a large section is bound to
benefit.
"By
excluding those who have already attained
economic well being or educational advancement,
the special benefits provided under these clauses
cannot be further extended to them and, if done
so, it would be unreasonable, discriminatory or
arbitrary, resulting in reserve
discrimination," the Bench observed.
That
the fruits of quota have so far been enjoyed
primarily by dominant backward castes such as
Yadavs, Kurmis, Mauryas, Lodhs, Vanniyars, Idigas
and sections of Vaishyas, leaving out Middle
Backward Classes (MBCs). This has over the years
created a deep resentment among the latter
category, who have seen no change in the
socio-economic or educational status. In states
such as Bihar, they have emerged as a powerful
block and given vent to their ire by voting
against RJD, which had projected itself as a
powerful champion of Backward Class empowerment,
but failed to satisfy aspirations of MBCs.
If
the creamy layer principle is not applied, it
could easily be said that all the castes that
have been included among socially and
educationally backward classes (SEBC) have been
included exclusively on the basis of caste.
Identification of SEBC for the purpose of either
Article 15(4), 15(5) or 16(4) solely on the basis
of caste is expressly prohibited by various
decisions of the Supreme Court and it is also
against Article 15(1) and Article 16(1) of the
Constitution.
The
point is not that affirmative action in higher
education be junked. Rather, that the system of
caste-based quotas, which has become divisive and
self-defeating, be replaced by a more transparent
and effective mechanism. Some experts have
suggested replacing the prevailing system of
fixed caste quotas with a mechanism that would
award booster points for different orders
(social, cultural, regional, linguistic, and
economic) of backwardness while evaluating on
merit candidates seeking admission to higher
education institutions. This would give truly
deprived members of intermediate castes a
head-start over their more empowered competitors
without dividing society.
Empirical
evidence proves that middle castes have not been
as historically hamstrung by extra-economic
biases such as untouchability and cultural
ostracism as SC/STs. That said, real empowerment
can be achieved only by breaking the traditional
caste-occupation correlation. That would
re-invent and canonise traditional skills as
modern knowledge even as the economy undergoes
rapid structural diversification to include those
skills in the formal sector and ascribe proper
value to them.
The
court expressed concern at the disturbing trend
of more and more communities queuing up to assert
their status as backward classes to get the
benefit of reservation. "Nowhere in the
world do castes, classes or communities queue up
for the sake of gaining backward status. Nowhere
else in the world is there a competition to
assert backwardness," said the court while
justifying the concept of the creamy layer
evolved in the Mandal case to keep out the
better-off section of OBCs from the purview of
reservation in jobs.
The
OBCs, whose aspirations had been raised by the
UPA governments decision to extend the
quota net to higher educational institutions, had
been left high-and-dry after the latest judgment.
They were, according to the thinking in the
saffron outfit, cut up with the Congress in
particular for authoring the project without any
proper homework.
Some
have proposed the inclusion of economic criteria:
this is something of an improvement, but does not
go far enough. What we needed, was space to
design more effective mechanisms of targeting
groups that need to be targeted for affirmative
action. For instance, there are a couple of well
designed deprivation indices that do a much
better job of targeting the relevant social
deprivations and picking out merit. The
governments action is disappointing because
it prematurely foreclosed these possibilities. In
foreclosing these possibilities the government
has revealed that it cares about tokenism more
than social justice. It has sent the signal that
there is no room for thinking about social
justice in a new paradigm. INAV
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Iraq
fires refuse to die down
By Anirudh Prakash
The
Pentagon on the basis of intelligence gathered by
the CIA has reported to the US President, Mr.
George W. Bush, that the United States lost the
war in Iraq. If American commanding officers of
general rank, once they go into retirement, say
the Iraq war is lost or if the vast majority of
the American people say it is not worth fighting,
does that mean the USA has lost? When someone
loses someone else wins-there are no
"draws" or runners-up in war. If
America has lost, does that mean Saddam won? How
can a man who was hanged in sight of the whole
world win a war from beyond his grave? It is all
very strange in this most abominable of all wars.
In
the Battle of Borodino in 1812, the Russians
under Marshall Mikhail Kutusov withdrew and the
French held the field of battle at end of day-the
single bloodiest day of warfare in modern times
with between 66,500 and 125,000 casualties
including several dozen generals. Though the
French won, it signalled the end of French power
and fall of Napoleon. Borodino was a Pyrrhic
victory.
Marshall
Kutusov, against his generals advice, and
courting extreme unpopularity with St.
Petersburg, continued to withdraw after Borodino
and declined to give battle to defend Moscow
itself. His remaining forces and most of the
civilian population withdrew beyond Moscow. The
city was emptied and allowed to burn. The French
took it without a fight, Napoleon entered and
tried to feel himself its ruler, his generals
tried to create a cooperative local government
from among the remaining residents.
Kutusov
waited, waited and waited some more without
giving battle. Then one day, some months later,
just as Kutusov had been praying, news came that
Napoleon and the French had gotten up and left.
Napoleons retreat was the biggest
catastrophe his Grande Armee suffered, and they
were harassed by Russian attacks all the way to
the border.
Saddam
was reported to have had two Russian generals
advising his army, who quietly left before the
Anglo-American attack occurred. Russian generals
learn about Kutusov on mothers knee. Even
Stalin invoked Kutusovs name when his 1939
pact with Hitler had failed and Hitler attacked
Russia on 22 June 1941. Iraq had both Nazi and
Soviet influences.
Saddams
propaganda spokesmen in the early stages of the
March 2003 invasion alluded to a Kutusov-like
defensive doctrine: "the US and British
administrations have depended on their strategy
and planning based on the information obtained
from the traitors, whom they call opposition, and
from some intelligence services of some Arab
countries
They said: "Let some
missiles be fired for the maximum of three days
and then everything would be over."
Therefore, we find them in a state of confusion.
They prevent the media from having access to the
facts about the military operations under
security pretexts. They say that they are heading
towards Baghdad and that they covered more than
160 or 180 km towards Baghdad. I would like to
tell them, that in the course that they are
following, let them continue up to 300 km and let
them mobilise all the tanks and marines they
have, and we will not clash with them soon. We
will give them enough time. However, in any
contact with any Iraqi village or city, they will
find what they are now witnessing in Umm Qasr and
Suq al-Shuyukh." Iraqs Army did a
vanishing act, men and materials disappeared,
Baghdad fell without fighting.
What
we may have been witnessing ever since the
Bush/Blair attack on Iraq is the outcome of a
clash between the doctrines of Clausewitz on the
American side and Kutusov on the Iraqi/Russian
side.
American
forces began with "Shock and Awe",
followed by disbanding Iraqs Army and
banning the Baathists. Then came "Light
Footprint" or "War Tourism", where
American forces left their bases only for
specific jaunts outside, while attempting to
create a new "Iraqi" Army in an
American image. Recently, the purported strategy
has changed again to "Clear, Hold,
Build" requiring the current infantry
"surge" of 30,000 extra troops to try
to pacify specific Baghdad neighbourhoods and
then "build" political institutions.
Thirty
years ago, Professor W.B. Gallie pointed to the
contradiction Clausewitz had been unable to
reconcile: "All commentators are agreed that
Clausewitzs greatest difficulty was to
explain the relationship between (Absolute War
and War as a Political Instrument)",
Philosophers of peace and war, Cambridge
University Press 1978. War-making as destruction
and war-making as politics are incompatible. The
cruelties of Iraq may explain and demonstrate the
root of this contradiction most clearly:
defeated, disarmed and destroyed victims of an
Absolute War are hardly going to feel themselves
agreeable to then being manipulated into any
political institutions or agreements designed by
the perpetrators of the violence. You cannot
declare "Absolute War" on Fallujah,
kill or arrest every able-bodied male citizen
there, and then expect Fallujahs women,
children and old people to participate happily in
town hall meetings you wish them to hold.
"America has lost because it has not behaved
like a great nation", said one ordinary
Iraqi initially in favour of Saddams
overthrow. Americas retired generals are
saying Iraq has been Americas greatest
strategic defeat.
The
result of the clash between the two doctrines of
war has been 30,000 American casualties (dead and
wounded at about 1:8), while Iraqi dead exceed
650,000 with millions more wounded, rendered
homeless or made refugees. Future historians may
speak of a genocide having occurred in Iraq.
Did
Saddam win if the Americans have lost? Of course
not. Iraq had its Mir Jafars, and Saddam was at
most a Shiraj, not even that given his odious
past. Iraq now has its Tippus, Bhagat Singhs and
Khudi Rams as well.
"The
Resistance is the natural reaction to any
occupation. All occupations in history faced a
resistance. Occupation is no for developing
people and making them better. It is for
humiliating people, and chaining them and taking
their freedom and fortunes away. These are my
convictions which make me feel that this
occupation is an insult to me and my
people." Such was what an anonymous
Resistance officer told the Australian journalist
Michael Ware. INAV
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Challenges
in demand and supply
By S.
Sethuraman
In a swift turnaround, the
world economy has not only lost the
growth steam but also faces new
challenges in overcoming simultaneous
threats of a full-blown credit crunch in
the financial system and of global growth
slowing to a recession with the united
States as the epicenter.
Grim messages have come out
from Washington of USA tipping into a
recession, the financial market turmoils
spreading to the core of the financial
system with losses already estimated at
around one trillion dollars, and rising
inflation worldwide with soaring food
prices triggering riots and unrest in
parts of Africa and Asia.
India's growth story is
overtaken by rising inflation fuelled by
global commodity price boom and the
Government, with all its fire-fighting
measures under way, must prepare itself
for a crisis of longer duration as there
will be no let-up in the oil, food and
other commodity prices over the next two
years. Likewise, as IMF forecasts, India
and other emerging markets have to be in
readiness to act to respond to spillover
from the financial meltdown - a
combination of global price pressures,
trade slowdown and a fall in capital
flows.
IMF has projected the world
economy to slow to 3.7 per cent in 2008,
without fully taking into account the
ramifications of the ongoing financial
crisis, which has not shown signs of
easing despite massive liquidity
injections by central banks and
aggressive rate cuts by the US Federal
Reserve, This estimate of global growth
deceleration is based on US growth
slowing to 0.5 per cent this year and 0.6
per cent in 2009 in conditions of housing
market collapse and the financial crisis
spreading its effects to real economic
sectors.
In its World Economic
Outlook Update, before leading Finance
Ministers from around the world gather in
Washington, IMF also notes that world
growth would achieve little pickup in
2009, and there is a 25 percent chance
that the global economy will record 3
percent or less growth in 2008 and 2009,
equivalent to a global recession.
While IMF estimates are in
terms of PPP, the corresponding
market-based exchange rate estimate is
2.6 per cent, the lowest after five years
of steady expansion from the 2001
recession.
The other assumptions in IMF
forecast are oil price average at 95
dollars a barrel in 2008 as against 71
dollars in 2007. World trade volume would
decline from 6.8 per cent in 2007
(already down from 9.2 per cent in 2006)
to 5.6 to 5.8 per cent for the next two
years There would be slowdown in exports
of emerging economies and developing
countries from 8.9 per cent in 2007 to
7.1 per cent while a pickup is expected
at 8.7 per cent in 2009..
IMF Chief Economist Simon
Johnson said at a press conference on
April 9 that "the principal downside
risk comes from the possibility that
financial strains could deepen." and
these strains in markets can quickly
become reinforcing and " a negative
spiral remains a possibility." The
other downside risks include inflation
worries, particularly in the wake of
soaring commodity prices; large current
account surpluses; and the "uneven
pattern of exchange rate movement around
the world".
India's growth rate in 2008
is set at 7.9 per cent and of China at
9.3 per cent as against last year's 9.2
and 11.4 per cent respectively. Though
these and other emerging market economies
would help to reduce the global output
downturn, IMF officials note, financial
market conditions could remain
"extremely difficult" until
there is greater clarity about extent and
distribution of losses on structured
products, the off-shoot of the US
subprime mortgage market. Current
estimate is that these losses could go
upto 945 billion dollars.
It is rocky ride for
advanced economies, including Euro-zone,
and the effects of the current turmoil
are likely to be "broader, deeper
and more protracted", according to
IMF officials who called for
"decisive action" to repair the
damages with banks raising capital and
medium-term financing and advanced
economies ensuring stronger regulations
and oversight.
Emerging market economies
should review reliability in public
disclosures of financial institutions and
robustness of their accounting frameworks
and should have contingency plans for
managing liquidity disruptions.
Spillovers for emerging markets have so
far been less pronounced but capital
flows have moderated in recent months and
issuance activity remains subdued. With
US entering recession, countries trading
heavily with USA would be affected.
Inflation risks are higher
in emerging market economies, especially
in Asia, reflecting the price surge,
tight commodity markets and upward drift
of core inflation. These countries should
be ready to respond to slowing growth and
more difficult financing conditions if
external environment deteriorates
sharply, IMF said.
On India, the IMF outlook
report says growth slowed to 8.5 per cent
in the second half of 2007 as consumption
cooled in response to tighter monetary
policy although investment continued at
brisk pace. For the region as a whole
persistent food price increase could
spill over into wages and spark a broader
pick up in inflation owing to rising
commodity prices. Capital flows for India
are projected to slow this year with
tightening global financial conditions
and weaker export demand and higher
financing costs are expected to dampen
investment activity. Thus, India's growth
has been projected lower at 7.9 per cent
while IMF also estimates a wider current
account deficit 3.1 per cent of GDP in
2008 and of the same order in 2009.
The global economic outlook
has been further clouded by the
acceleration in the international food
price trends in 2008 and this price surge
is not a temporary phenomenon but likely
to persist over the medium term,
according to the World Bank. What is
worse, food riots and demonstrations are
taking place in a large number of
developing countries across regions in
Africa and Asia and UN officials have
warned of worldwide unrest threatening
political stability.
The World Bank says prices
of wheat, rice, maize, soybean and oil
would keep rising for the next three
years. FAO attributes the present crisis
to the failure of developing countries in
not promoting farm sector for the last
two decades and says the present crisis
would undermine poverty gains of the last
decade. The Bank suggests options like
ensuring household food security by
targeted safety nets, by lowering
domestic food prices, and measures to
stimulate medium-term food supply
responses (production), giving
agriculture maximum priority. Fiscal
deficits could go up with these measures.
The Bank says it can scale up financing
under existing programmes for safety net
and farm output. (IPA Service)
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