Daily Excelsior... Editorial

EDITORIAL

By Arun Nehru

By Satyendra Pratap Singh

The country is facing scarcity of foodgrains. The prices of cereals, pulses, edible oils and vegetables are sky rocketing making life miserable for common man. Nobody for sure knows whether the scarcity is man made or artificial. The UPA government's main mantra "welfare of aam aadmi" has become laughing stock. Millions are starving and languishing in abject poverty. In acute poverty stricken states p......more

Employment scenario

By M.L.Dhar

Employment generation is one of the major priorities drawing the attention of the governments and economic planners all over the world. India is no exception. The approach to tackling unemployment problem have varied from time to time. In the initial years of planning no attempt w ....more

EDITORIAL

Smokers' paradise:
It's here, it's here

Our State is truly a paradise on the earth. For that, however, we have to thank only its grand natural assets. Left to us we are determined to convert it into hell. It has become a heaven for the cult of the gun on the one hand and corrupt elements on the other. Further spoiling it are our habits. We have, among other things, turned it into a smokers' dreamland. Official figures confront us in the face. Of the State's total population as many as 40.2 per cent of men and 0.7 per cent women smoke cigarettes or bidis. The corresponding percentage of those who use any kind of tobacco is 52.7 and 5.3, respectively. Smokers' tally in our so-called blessed land is thus the second highest in northern India next only to Rajasthan which has 41.8 per cent of them and 60.4 per cent tobacco users. Leading us in the number of smokers are only West Bengal (50.1 per cent) and some of the tiny North-Eastern states like Meghalaya (60 per cent), Mizoram (73.6 per cent) and Tripura (56.7 per cent). We are way ahead of the national average of 32.7 per cent men smokers. All these figures relate to the people in the age-group between 15 and 49 years. This means that the majority of the people as long as they are healthy enjoy puffing at a cigarette. They may be aware of the adverse consequences that may follow. They care a pin. When they are face to face with diseases in older age they may regret not having read in time the warning written on cigarette packets: "Smoking is injurious to health." Any chain smoker's sputum is proof of a frightening reality whether he admits it or not that he is very sick. It is invariably smitten with black colour. Such smokers also cough time and again and spit into an ash tray which they have kept in front of them primarily for throwing cigarette ash. Generally they are unmindful of the disgust they evoke among those sitting around them. In our State as elsewhere in the sub-continent there has been a long practice of smoking "hukka" (many of our compatriots settled abroad nostalgically prefer it as a decoration piece for their drawing-rooms). For centuries the men in particular have been relishing it almost as a sign of authority. The women whether working in fields or elsewhere have also been enjoying tobacco in some form. That one out of every tenth woman (in age-group 15-49) in the country uses tobacco in some form speaks for itself. There are 1.4 smokers among them which in real terms is an enormous number.

Since this is somewhat old data (compiled by the National Family Health Survey up to 2005-06) one has no doubt that it has only gone up substantially during the last two years. One can say without any fear of contradiction that there is an overwhelming increase of women smokers --- in the younger lot in particular. A World Health Organisation (WHO) report on Global Tobacco and Control Measures has said unambiguously that there is "rise in tobacco use among young women in high population countries" (obviously we are in this group) and this trend has the "portents of an ominous potential of an epidemic". The report indicates, to quote a Union Government reply in the current session of the Lok Sabha, "that women smoke at about one-fourth the rate of men and tobacco industry is aggressively marketing to tap this potential." It is one male bastion that the women must avoid. For this it is essential that they resist the temptation being offered by forceful dream merchants. There are umpteen studies available on adverse impact that smoking can have especially on pregnant women. According to a research about 13 per cent women in the United States smoke during pregnancy and if they stop doing so there would be an estimated 10 per cent reduction in infant deaths in the country. It quotes the US Public Health Service as having arrived at this conclusion. A cigarette contains several ingredients that can be harmful to foetus. According to a body called the American Lung Association, "if a woman smokes during pregnancy she takes a big chance with her baby's health. There is a greater chance that she will lose the baby during pregnancy. The baby could also be born too early, before the lungs are ready, so he or she will have trouble breathing." There is a warning for husbands and prospective fathers too: "New studies show that if a woman's partner smokes near her during her pregnancy, there are added risks. She has a greater chance of having a baby that weighs too little and may have health problems."

Clearly the law has not proved effective in checking the menace leave alone eradicating it lock, stock and barrel. Over the decades it has been strengthened on various occasions. Presently it is quite comprehensive as there is ban on (a) direct and indirect advertisement of tobacco products; (b) smoking in public places; (c) sale of all tobacco products to a person below the age of 18 years; and (d) sale of all tobacco products within a radius of 100 yards of educational institutions. As the statutory warning on cigarette packets has not had a deterrent outcome it has been reinforced by a mandatory pictorial caution. It is doubtful, however, whether it is the best method to tackle an established vice. There is a school of thought that smoking by film stars on and off the screen encourages the tendency among the youth to follow suit and, therefore, they should be debarred from doing so in movies. Undoubtedly the films and actors have a tremendous appeal. To impose any restriction on them, however, will amount to curbing a creative activity. There are actors and actresses who neither smoke nor drink but are called upon to perform these actions in front of the camera. A celluloid villain may be a perfect gentleman in real life. A more convincing approach will be to keep educating people that smoking is an evil. It soils our environment. Worse, it quietly destroys us. It does to us what timber mafias do to forests, weed and encroachment to lakes and terrorism to peace.

Political vendetta is negative

By Arun Nehru

We see a great deal of movement on the political front and this is a positive sign as we see 'alliances' for the immediate future and as a belligerent Mayawati and her BSP cadres make a forward political move the Congress accepting the ground reality make a 'friendly' gesture towards Mulayam Singh Yadav and the SP. The realignment may or may not lead to a formal alliance for the future as there are many months to go for elections but the political message is clear and as things stand this 'posture' for the moment will suit both the Congress/SP. Mayawati and the BSP are on a political rampage and can cause immense damage to the Congress in the North as a 4-7% vote share in the North[ Delhi/Haryana/Punjab/MP/Rajasthan] can result in seat losses to the BJP in the coming Assembly elections and to 'contain' her it is necessary to challenge her authority in UP. The Samajwadi party during the past few months have allowed the political honeymoon to run its course and their alliance with the Left and efforts to forge a Third Front have helped them to keep their relevance and with forty seats in the Lok Sabha they cannot over a period of time be ignored from the power circuit. Mayawati has the ability to win 50 seats in the next election but in the immediate short term she is waging a political war on to many fronts and her aggressive approach and usage of the official agencies is a 'negative' and indicates arrogance and a vendetta approach towards her opponents. The Left can shrink from 65 seats to 45 seats and the SP can drop from the current 40 seats to 25-30 seats but as a 'combination' with 70-85 seats they cannot be ignored by the Congress who on current trends may win 130-140 seats [can increase further if Assembly elections in 2008 go in their favor] Coalition patterns prevail over personal likes and dislikes and last week I had given a analysis that the current alliance formation of the UPA with the Left may well repeat after the 2009 elections as 'few' can predict for the moment the direction the BSP/AIDMK/TDP will take in the future!

Political trends and preferences are difficult to predict in a Coalition structure and with increased media coverage and technology the average voter is today better informed than ever before and political accountability and anti incumbency trends which follow indicate

the public mood. Few if any could predict that Mayawati and the BSP would win in excess of 200 seats in Uttar Pradesh and all the conventional caste barriers broke down and the vote was for 'stability and governance'. Many months have gone by and do we have 'stability and governance'? The electronic media yesterday gave a indication of 'excesses' as a war like situation existed in Western UP as the entire police force was deployed to arrest Mahender Singh Tikait for a offensive speech [ he has been doing this for years] and is this a sign of good governance? The Supreme Court decision on the Amitabh Bacchan land issue also smacks of a unnecessary vendetta and all these are 'negatives' and excesses in any form results in retribution. Time for Mayawati and the BSP to reflect on the political situation in the state and plan their strategy for the future as the current alliance or understanding between the Congress and the SP may well change the public mood as General elections approach for the future. The BSP are still a formidable force, the SP and Mulayam Singh will be in 'recovery mode' and the Congress effort led by Rahul Gandhi has made a impact and cannot be taken for granted in the future. The BSP is under 'pressure' from all directions and in this situation their greatest strength of having a 'charismatic' leader can also become their biggest weakness if instead of governance, time and resources are spent in senseless vendetta's.

We have important developments in Pakistan as a government is sworn in and things seem to be rather calm and this is a very good sign. We must hope that in the future the traditional area's of conflict will be put aside as in the case with China and we will have greater co operation and interaction with Pakistan. The flow of visitors has increased considerably on both sides and I think public opinion on both sides would be strongly in favor of better and increased relations and this would mean a great deal of prosperity to our mutual benefit. Democracy over a period of time will bring the necessary changes within the Pakistan Army and clearly there is no future in violence and death. Change is never easy but the people of Pakistan have shown great resolve and determination and we must wish them well for the future. Terror attacks in Pakistan continue and hopefully in the future we will be free to exchange information and assist each other against groups who have a vested interest in encouraging conflicts within the sub continent. There is reduced activity in India and this is a good sign. We have elections in J&K and it is going to be a very tough battle between the PDP headed by Mufti Syed and his talented daughter Mehbooba and the NC spearheaded by Farooq Abdullah and his son Omar.

Current indications are 2/1 seats in favor of PDP/Congress in the Valley against the NC whilst in Jammu it will be the Congress/BJP fighting for the two seats and difficult to spot a winner at this stage and I think it would be fair to state that the first few years under Mufti Syed showed a great deal of restraint and maturity in dealing with the issue of terrorism and with the changed situation in Pakistan the relevance and policy adopted in the future will be of great relevance.

Patchy economic growth

By Satyendra Pratap Singh

About 300 million, among 700 million indigent, don't get two square meals a day. Economy grows but doesn't reach the pastures of privation. The gulf between the affluent and the penurious, eventually has become unbridgeable. Is it then a growth of attrition?

In the face of such a baffling query the task waxes unusually daunting. The incongruity between the privileged and the deprived is unwittingly magnifying in spite of the galloping economy. This is a paradox which defies all wisdom. There is a certain mystique about it that couldn't be traced and solved by conventional knowledge. It perhaps demands a bit out-of-the-rut experience and learning on the basis of direct perception. To bring the wild horse poverty to heel in this country is indeed difficult. Admittedly, it is a tricky territory.

In any case, the truth is: the existing mechanism is not likely to alter the situation. But thee is no misgiving as to the fact that aspirations of umpteen farmers, artisans, weavers, blacksmiths, coolies, cobblers, sweepers, hawkers and other communities of their ilk have not been adequately addressed. Their requirements are routinely considered peripheral. But then, their discontent, notwithstanding their little want, has been mounting for the casual treatment they are being meted out all along.

Augmented economy is all about the expansion in job opportunity. If technology cuts jobs, reducing the use of manpower, can it be called a blessing? The more we think that economic growth is guaranteed and that risk and uncertainty are receding, the more we act in ways that raise risk.

There is ample truth in this statement recently given by an economics buff. The alluded risk actually takes various intricate shapes, especially in a country like India where population as well as diversity is mind-boggling.

For instance, with the indiscriminate proliferation of industries, innumerable working people are out of their earnings. There is absolutely no market for the wares and articles they can produce individually by dint of their traditional expertise. They are being mercilessly pushed out of the reckoning by the matchlessly resourceful business houses that are manufacturing similar materials at low costs. People, thus jobless, are not skilled otherwise that they could be immediately absorbed in different other modern businesses either. Ultimately, despondent, they lose all enthusiasm and urgency for further training to start anew. Thus, they peter out of life with such a doomed future. Though they are left unprovided for they rarely come under the purview of the unemployed as they aren't formally educated.

To separate the unorganised sector, under the prevailing circumstances, sounds logical. Legislation safeguarding its exclusiveness could energise its domestic market, which alone is evidently large enough for sustaining its weak contenders. If no big concern is allowed, the tension will be obviously less there. With an independent regulatory system and purely restricted system and purely restricted to Plebian entrepreneurs, this sector is expected to function with negligible risk and, surely, with more buying and selling of indigenous goods happening. Having deeper and wider involvement of the masses, economy would get into its stride.

Any disturbance in the international market exponentially affects the struggling markets of the developing economies. Its negative impacts on them bring suffering to ordinary people with cumulative effect. To absorb their shocks and stay unperturbed is hard. Hence, commodities which have a promising domestic market should not be ineluctably linked with the global market. For it would act as a buffer in such circumstances.

An exceptional sense of alertness is required to take the economy forward in the countryside, more so in India. The contribution of the agriculture sector in the Indian economy was 60 per cent before independence. Sixty years on it has come down to 20 per cent only. This deplorable picture evolves out of wrong dealings with the farmers. Neither were they ever shielded against exploitations nor were they ever deemed harbinger of economic success. Their rising frustration is perceptible from the extent of their vulnerability. Many among them are now disposing of their land at throwaway prices and escaping from their villages to the urban areas in search of livelihood. Not aware of the harsh reality of a city, they arrive there only to die eventually in the unhygienic conditions of slums, living on leftover foods. The irony of flood, drought, pestilence, disease, land mafia and, above all, debt and hunger are too much for them to bear. None cares for their honesty, humility and patience. A happy life to them is like a willow-o-the wisp.

Farmers have watered the roots of our civilisation and national identity by the sweat of their brows. They are the genuine custodians of time-honoured Indian customs. To quote Swami Vivekananda: "The same laws are here, laws adjusted and thought out through thousands and thousands of years; customs, the outcome of the acumen of ages and the experience of centuries, that seem to be eternal; and as the days go by, as blow after blow of misfortune has been delivered upon them, such blows seem to have served one purpose only, that of making them stronger and more constant. And to find the centre of all this, the heart from which the blood flows, the mainspring of the national life, believe me when I say after my experience of the world, that it is here." Therefore, they must be given back their "lost individuality" in order to be able to regenerate their natural aplomb.

The past ushers the present, and the way in which we use the present is going to make the future. The free market economy in our country has raised the standard of living of 30 per cent people only. But it has also increased corruption and made the poor poorer. It accordingly, remains to be seen whether it can purge itself of the dross and thereby raise the incomes of ordinary people.

Nothing happens by a quirk of fate. The patchy effect of our advancing economy is convertible into a pervasive as well as persistent benefit by the combined power of our heads, hearts and hands. So, there is no respite for revelries over this growth lest it turns messy due to the paroxysm of inordinate passion. INAV

Employment scenario

By M.L.Dhar

Employment generation is one of the major priorities drawing the attention of the governments and economic planners all over the world. India is no exception.

The approach to tackling unemployment problem have varied from time to time. In the initial years of planning no attempt was made to define an independent employment strategy. The focus on economic growth was viewed as essential for improving the employment situation. Thus, in the Five Year Plans, the generation of employment was viewed as part of the process of development.

It was, however, observed that the rate of growth of employment was generally much lower than the GDP rate of growth of the economy. Seasons of severe drought and failure of monsoons exposed large sections of population to extensive deprivations and compounded the situation. Successive plan strategies, policies and programmes were, therefore, re-designed to bring about a special focus on employment generation as a specific objective.

The seventies and eighties saw the emergence of special schemes like NREP, RLEGP to provide wage employment through public works programmes and schemes to promote self-employment and entrepreneurship to the unemployed and the poor. Employment levels expanded steadily during the seventies and eighties but the rate of growth of employment continued to lag behind that of the labour force. Unemployment among the educated showed a rising trend.

In 1998-99, various poverty alleviation and employment generation programmes were re-grouped under two broad categories of self-employment schemes and wage employment schemes. Funding and organizational patterns were also rationalized for better results.

India's labour force is growing at a rate of 2.5 percent annually, but employment is growing at only 2.3 per cent. Thus, the country is faced with the challenge of not only absorbing new entrants to the job market (estimated at seven million people every year), but also clearing the backlog.

More than 90 per cent of the 37 crore strong labour force is employed in the "unorganised sector" and are largely bereft of social security and other benefits of employment available in the "organised sector".Sixty per cent of India's workforce is self-employed, many of them remain very poor. Nearly 30 per cent are casual workers who are only seasonally employed. In the rural areas, agricultural workers form the bulk of the unorganised sector.

Unorganised sector is also made up of jobs in which the Minimum Wage Act is either not, or only marginally, implemented. The absence of unions in the unorganized sector does not provide any opportunity for collective bargaining.

The bane of India’s labour force is that over 70 per cent of workers are either illiterate or educated below the primary level.

With the opening of Indian economy and linking it to global economies, the rate of growth of employment declined sharply in 1990s as compared to 1980s. The decline in employment growth has been seen in conjunction with the decline in the labour force growth rate.

There is also a wide variation in unemployment rates across the states. Measured on Current Daily Status basis, unemployment ranges from a low of around 3 percent in Himachal Pradesh and Rajasthan to a high of 21 percent in Kerala.

While there may be divergence of opinion on the extent of under employment and unemployment, there is convergence of views on the need to expand employment. In order to achieve this goal, the economists have emphasized that any programme for this purpose must focus on growth, labour productivity and relative price of labour and capital. They have further suggested that micro economic policy framework must be such as to facilitate accelerated growth rate of 9 percent on a sustained basis. According to the noted economist Dr. C. Rangarajan a sustained growth of 9 percent per annum will totally eliminate unemployment by 2012.

Sector specific policies are required which would acclerate the growth of labour intensive sectors. These include among others agriculture, food processing and small-scale units in various sectors.

One of the most significant interventions by the government to generate employment has been the launch of the National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (NREGA) in February 2006 in two hundred most backward districts of the country. Consequently, the scheme was extended to another 130 districts and from April 2008 it would be operative in all districts. For the current financial year, a budget provision of Rs.12, 000 crores was made for implementation of the Act. NREGA being demand driven, so far, nearly 2.12 crore house holds have been provided with employment. Under NREGA, 6.399.55 lakh person days works have been taken up for creating village assets that would in turn enrich rural and women has considerably gone up in this wage employment programme economy. The participation of weaker sections of the society, such as SC/STs

One significant factor in the employment situation in the country is that the bulk of employment is in the unorganised sector. There has to be an endeavour to shift as much of labour force as possible from the unorganised to the organised sector. This would give workers a better deal in terms of wages. This is possible only if the rigidities in the labour market are relaxed and wage determination begins to reflect the resource endowment in the country. This would encourage establishments to adopt labour intensive technologies.

There has been a welcome and widespread social acceptance of the imperative need of the Indian economy to achieve higher growth rate of GDP in a sustained manner. The country recently achieved 9 percent GDP growth, which it not only plans to sustain but take it to a double-digit growth during the 11th plan.

It may not be difficult to meet the formidable challenge of providing job opportunities to eight million people every year. For this the growth rate of economy has to be accelerated, special emphasis to be given to labour intensive sectors, improving labour skills and functioning of the labour market. (PIB)