Daily Excelsior... Editorial

EDITORIAL

By N.B. Menon

By O P Modi

To some the title of this article would have seemed out of place if it had been published just after the so called "fruitful" Havana meeting between Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and President Parvez Musharraf. But after reading the excerpts and viewing the electronic media’s reporting on his book "In the Line of Fire", I decided to continue writing it with my earlier perceptions, that stand further strengthened, about Pakistan’s decisive shift .......more

Indo-German military ties

By Chandra Mohan

The proposed revival of Indo-German military ties is a classic example of why political pique must not be allowed to impinge on national interests. Shutters were pulled down on cooperation with Bonn in military hardware production during the Rajiv reign in the wake of reports that some .......more

EDITORIAL

Too audacious

In the last phase of terrorism in Punjab the militants had taken out their frustration on local police men. They would find soft targets among them. Occasionally they would also barge into their houses and just open fire on whoever came in front. Umpteen photographs of such incidents are reminders of those gory scenes. Something like that is happening in the Kashmir region these days. The militants appear to be in panic with the State police having regained its form on the other side of the Pir Panjal. Ably assisted by the Army and para-military forces it has slowly but surely geared up to meet the challenge on hand. The inertia that had suddenly gripped it in the early 1990s is now a thing of the past. The members of the State police force can be seen doing active duty in crowded streets of the Valley. Since they know the area like the palm of their hand it is not surprising that they come across tough resistance from the militants. They have been hit three times during the last as many days. The militants have carried out daring strikes against them from close range in busy parts of the Summer Capital. First they shot one police man and critically injured another in Lal Chowk. That was on Sunday. They have followed it up by eliminating two more uniformed men on Tuesday. A head constable who worked as a driver with a senior police official was gunned down while he was standing near his vehicle in Batmaloo. In less than two hours after that a constable was liquidated in the same cruel fashion near the holy shrine of Hazratbal in another corner of Srinagar. He was posted as a guard at a bank. These violent instances take one to the early phase of terrorism. In a couple of occurrences then the militants had got the better of unsuspecting jawans and officers of the armed forces including the Air Force.

The supreme sacrifice of these courageous police men should not go waste. One tends to believe that by now the officers in charge must have carried out a strategic review of the developing situation. By all means it is important to deploy police men at critical points. At the same time care needs to be taken to ensure that they are well prepared to meet an unexpected offensive. It is clear that a police man should not move around alone for the time being. He ought to have some company of his colleagues. To conclude that such perception is a sign of weakness will be wrong and unfair. When a police man is deprived of his life or is badly wounded it will help if he has an ally to chase the tormentor. Our cities including Srinagar are old and have numerous narrow alleys that enable the militants to make good their escape. These merchants of death and disaster have to be stopped in their tracks at any cost.

A silver lining is that the people have overcome their fear with the passage of time. They are coming forward with whatever help they can extend. They have seen the terrorists inflicting miseries and would like their land to be exorcised of this evil phenomenon for good. Their positive response should make it easy for the State police to catch the bull directly staring it in eyes by the horns and effectively get rid of it.

Different strokes

There is no end to noises emanating from Pakistan for and against the neighbouring country's President Pervez Musharraf. There has been a spat between the uniformed President and former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif over who had actually engineered the Kargil war. Of course, nearly the entire opposition is striving to achieve the restoration of democracy. It is up against a wall. Nevertheless its resolve to achieve its objective seems to have been further strengthened after the brutal killing of Baloch leader Nawab Akbar Bugti. Even a faction of the Pakistan Muslim League that has become an active participant in the General's regime is feeling uncomfortable after this extremely shocking murder that has reminded one and all of the hanging of Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto. On the other hand, the supporters of the General are equally vociferous. They are keen to ensure that he stays in power. They have also threatened to deal with an iron hand with sections of media that are critical of the country's army. It has left responsible newspapers amazed. Very rightly they have raised a query. How can they shut their eyes to the doings of army when it is in charge of the government? It is now left to Mr Hamid Gul, a former chief of Pakistan's intelligence agency Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), to kick off another controversy. According to him, the United States was behind the October 1999 coup staged by Gen Musharraf to overthrow the Nawaz Sharif government. He is rather categorical: "It is absolutely true that America played a role in Gen Musharraf's take-over of 1999." Mr Gul accuses the General of keeping silent about this significant development in his autobiography. The irony, however, is that he himself is silent about the source of his information. Mr Gul is a soft-spoken person but certainly not a simple man. It was during his tenure as the ISI boss that Pakistan had pushed in arms and ammunition into this State and tempted the Kashmiri youth to training camps in Muzaffarabad. From a distance it appears that he has made a sensible suggestion that Pakistan should stop using the ISI for political purposes. He says he had made the submission to Ms Benazir Bhutto when she was the Prime Minister but she had rejected it. He has also spoken in favour of democracy saying that "Pakistan is weak and vulnerable without democracy." Reading between the lines it is evident that democracy is just one of the ingredients he has in mind. He makes it a heady mix of "a nuclear bomb, spirit of jihad and democracy" all of which together "can enable Pakistan to defend" itself. Believers in democracy and its practitioners across the globe will indeed find it a strange panacea for any country.

Can the "spirit of jihad" be left undefined in the current scenario? The expression has assumed an altogether different connotation. Mr Gul can't be unaware of this but apparently he is not able to overlook the home audience assiduously fed by the likes of him with dreams that remain elusive. People like him should be frank with their admissions if they mean well by Pakistan.

The terror synergy

By N.B. Menon

No one thought it would last, but even the most cynical of experts did not expect Washington's flirtation with Islamabad to go sour. The trouble started when United States troops clashed with Pakistan Army personnel near a village on the Pakistan-Afghan border on 26 September. The skirmishes left an American soldier injured. In retaliation, the US Air Force dropped a 500-pound bomb on a madrasa in the southern Wiziristan area of Pakistan, killing two Pakistan soldiers. Within hours, religious zealots in Pakistan began baying for American blood. The six-party alliance of largest representation in the Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA), called a nationwide protest on October 1. The MMA has the third largest representation in national Assembly besides being the ruling party in the North-West Frontier Province, a vast, ungovernable arid zone lying next to Afghanistan. It has been a swamp of terrorism for over two decades. The firefight with the US forces has given the excuse, which the MMA has been seeking desperately since President Pervez Musharraf joined hands with US President George W Bush in the campaign against terrorism in South Asia.

The MMA especially its firebrand leader Maulana Fazlur Rehman has always termed the alliance unholy and a sell-out by President Musharraf. The MMA leader is not just any Maulana. He is a founding member of the Taliban and organiser of terrorist training camps, an ideologue of terror groups like the Harkat-ul-ansar, and occasional advisor to President Musharraf. Last March when President Musharraf dared to imprison him, his followers threatened to paralyse the country. The Maulana was quietly released without any charges. He is gearing up for a confrontation not only with President Musharraf but also the US. The last week spat has only given him more ammunition.

The United States and Pakistan were supposed to co-author the prefatory chapter of the greatest global mission of the 21st century: War against International Terrorism. At least so ordained a perspicacious US President those visions of geopolitics rarely extends beyond a few months, whose unmatched intellect dictates the revision of American "interests" almost on an annual basis. If on September 11, 2001, it was Talibanised Afghanistan, by September 12, 2002, Saddamised Iraq, was the gravest threat to America. Given Mr. George W Bush's frenetic search for American's enemies, the next could well be North Korea, or who knows, now even Pakistan. Expect, the last would entail a revision of Mr. Bush's profound "axis of evil" enunciation.

It is for nothing that the US under secretary of state, Nicholas Burns, indicated on the sidelines of a think-tank meeting in New York that Pakistan must rein in Kashmiri Jehadis on its soil. Mr. Burns' reference to terrorism by Kashmiri groups and Pakistan's influence on them was made suo motu, and suggested Washington does not believe in Islamabad's theory that that the terror attacks in India are solely the result of disaffection of minorities or as a result of the carnage in Gujarat. This is the second time in recent weeks that senior administration officials have referred to Pakistan-inspired terrorism (Pakistani influence on terror groups is the American way of finessing it).

The border incident and Mr. Burns' utterances must draw Mr. Bush's attention as much to Islamabad's fraudulent claims of sincerity on the terrorism issue as to American military intelligence from Afghanistan that has been posting its disgruntlement with Pakistani cooperation against the Taliban and the Al Queda for a while now. Reports quote unidentified US military personnel in Afghanistan raising serious questions about the manner in which their troops are being constantly targeted by Taliban and Al Queda operatives who find easy cover in Pakistan after each attack on a US target. Ninety per cent of the attacks on US troops, according to US military officers quoted in sections of the American media, come from groups based in Pakistan. So much for the cooperation extended by America's "stalwart" ally in the war against terror.

Admittedly, the latest clashes between the US and Pakistani forces in the border region of Pakistan-Afghanistan points to an unstoppable downturn in Washington-Islamabad relations. That matrimony hurriedly formalised in the wake of America's post-September 11 compulsions had to turn sour at some point was inevitable from the start. Except it took a severe hard-line Islamist criticism of the US over the skirmishes to expose the deep-seated resentment with Pakistan is no longer the sole preserve of the General. There are other voices that will become increasingly audible to the US as its troops suffer more casualties in Afghanistan. These are voices that will hound Washington as it initiates a serious examination of North Korea's clandestine nuclear partnership with Pakistan. In the eventual analysis these are voices Mr. Bush may find difficult to drown in his "with us or against us" rhetoric. On the face of it, New Delhi can draw smug consolation from the US-Pakistan clash and hold it up for the world community as a classic told-you-so instance of a doomed coalition against terror that takes onboard a terror-manufacturing nation.

In this context, India can ill-afford to lose sight of the fact that the world is yet to arrive at a consensus on the term "international terrorism". In fact, Russian President Vladimir Putin's support of the Indian position on Pakistan has sent a much awaited message of consolation to New Delhi - that, after all, India was not speaking in an incomprehensible language in its assessment of Pakistan's abetment of cross-border terrorism in Jammu & Kashmir. This followed the Mumbai train blasts sponsored by Pakistan.

The British Prime Minister, Tony Blair's ratification of New Delhi's position only highlighted the fact that India will find support for its case against Pakistan from anyone who is willing to be a sympathetic listener; one who identifies with the kind of terrorism India has lived with for more than two decades. Britain is one such listener; the US is far from being even politely attentive. Clearly, President Bush will target only those "terrorist" forces that threaten America's perceived "interests" across the globe; that, which does not "terrorise" America, is not terrorism at all.

The road ahead for India is a complex and testing one. At one level, it has to convince the world community that the West's distinction between good terrorism and bad terrorism, between acceptable terrorism and unacceptable terrorism, between a Pervez Musharraf and a Saddam Hussein, contains a grave threat to global stability. At another level, while inevitable American disillusionment with Pakistan could indirectly help India's campaign against the latter, New Delhi cannot hope for a similar proxy diplomatic victory vis-…-vis its other neighbours.

India faces in Pakistan in J&K as from Maoists making way into the country from Nepal, from Northeast insurgents drawing on resources from Bhutan or from ISI operatives brazenly fanning out of Bangladesh into Indian Territory. India after all does not have the luxury of waging a single war against terrorism within a limited spatial framework. It has been fighting several battles against terrorism across its length and breadth over decades. These battles cannot be won through coercive diplomacy alone. They have to be concluded through a ruthless counter-terror programme, which does not require the crutches of a diplomacy that lets the likes of Washington place India on a perpetual waitlist. However, what is gratifying for New Delhi is that the world community has started understanding the Indian position how Pakistan is out to destabilise Indian democratic polity. INAV

The thousand cuts war

By O P Modi

The warmth of Manmohan-Musharraf Havana hand shake was lost in no time, not only because of the exposé of his book but also because of the known insincere and deceptive nature of the General. His book has once again underlined his shifting character. Liar, liar, liar; is the refrain of everyone concerned. Former Prime Minister Vajpayee has categorically refuted his assertion about Agra summit. Richard Armitage, former US under secretary of state, has said that he had never threatened that America would bomb Pakistan "back to stone age" if it did not co-operate with the United States against the Talibans in Afghanistan. Musharraf’s allegation that India stole the Pak Nuclear design has been described as a "sick joke" by Anil Kakodhar, the Chairman Department of atomic energy of India. Almost all the world leaders have rejected so many of Musharraf’s assertions including the one on Kargil War besides other stories in his book. One correspondent has described the book as a work of "fiction" and not an autobiography.

The recent bomb attacks in Mumbai and Malegaon clearly indicate that Pakistan has now determinedly extended its aggression beyond the borders of Jammu & Kashmir. Having failed four times in its conventional aggression against India during the past 57 years, in 1989 it launched the much hyped proxy war for which thousands of Kashmiri youth had been trained in PoK, Afghanistan and Pakistan itself. They were provided with the latest war weapons and pushed back into the Valley to start the proxy war. Intelligence reports say that there are still a few thousand trained Kashmiri youth waiting to sneak into the valley or rest of the country.

The proxy war that began in 1989 continues with unabated fury. Pakistan has, however realised that it cannot snatch J&K from India either by a conventional or a Proxy War. It knows that India, because of its vast resources and people’s strong patriotic will, cannot be beaten even in a war of attrition. Hence the ISI has made drastic changes in its strategy. For the first time in 16 years of proxy war it has been able to establish more than 156 known subversive "cells" throughout India. The most unfortunate development since 1989 is that for the first time a large number of Indian youth has been recruited as "sleepers" who at the call of the ISI are supposed to provide logistic support for violent attacks on vital economic and defence centers of the country.

It is not for the first time that India, outside J&K, has been attacked by such elements whose links with Pakistan have been established. Some of the major attacks include the attack on the Parliament on 13th December 2001. Akshardham temple in Gujarat was attacked on 24th September 2002 killing 32 people and injuring 200. The attack was carried out by Lasker-e-Toiba. On 29th October 2005 in Sarojini Nagar in New Delhi series of explosions rocked the Capital. 65 people died in the attack and several others were wounded.

Again on 28th December 2005 Indian Institute of Science was targeted killing M.C Puri, professor emeritus. Four others were injured by a lone member of the Lashkar-e-Toiba in the attack. In Varanasi two power full bombs were exploded on 7th March 2006 near the famous Sankatmochan Temple and the railway station in which 20 people died and many more injured.

On July 11 this year 192 persons lost their lives and hundreds were injured in synchronized seven powerful bomb blasts in Mumbai. That very day Srinagar too was rocked by 6 explosions in which several people lost their life and many were injured. The Mumbai Police has claimed to have cracked the case of Mumbai blasts and has categorically stated that Pakistan’s ISI is involved in the attack. It is interesting to note that in Havana though Pakistan has signed the agreement for joint mechanism to tackle the terrorists it has refused now to hand over the culprits even if India produces conclusive evidence against them.

Intelligence reports say that Quetta in Balochistan is the hub for printing fake Indian currency. ISI is using every possible means to destablise the Indian economy by pushing crores of fake currency into this country. It is done mostly through the passengers who come to India by air, rail and bus services. The cash is being smuggled inside washing machines, music systems, and crockery boxes etc. Reports say that Indian intelligence agency CBI believes that ISI has helped the counterfeiters in breaching the printing procedures of currency adopted by India and that it has been able even to lay hands on the Indian security papers for printing the fake notes.

India’s Home Minister Shivraj Patil has recently told the Lok Sabha that "Terrorists have come through water and air taking advantage of the friendly atmosphere….(and) the warmth of ties." The terrorists supported by the ISI have entered from Nepal and Bangladesh besides the Borders in Jammu and Kashmir.

Pakistan now is on the path of inflicting several different kinds of blows to destablise India. The attack is planned to be made where it would hurt the country the most. It is going to be multi pronged aggression. Economic centers, vital defence installations, religious places of importance will be targeted by the terrorists. Well planned and organized communal disturbances shall be attempted by the ISI agents. Once the communal disturbance starts in any part of the country the ISI agents will fan the communal hatred to the best of their ability. Hundreds of other ways to inflict "cuts" that the ISI believes or plans may be put into practice by it in an attempt to destablise this country.

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has already warned the state Chief Ministers of the impending threat from the terrorists who may strike anywhere in the country. However, the Nation must be made fully aware of the "Thousand cuts war" that now has been waged by Pakistan.

Indo-German military ties

By Chandra Mohan

Before the deal went into cold storage for good, courtesy the then finance minister V P Singh, India had bought two submarines from the German shipyard. Two more were bought in completely knocked down (CKD) kits. The last four hulls were made from local material but the engines and some other components were procured from original German manufacturer.

German firm was alleged to have paid out kickbacks for bagging the contract and, later, having sold the design of the SSK submarine to South Africa, where the White minority regime practiced apartheid as state policy -a factor India was opposing in all international fora.

Hence, whatever transfer of technology that took place was confined to the extant project. It did not become a building block for further improvement and indigenous upgradation to a more modern weapons platform and when the project was completed the slipway and the expertise and trained manpower languished and disappeared without contributing to "competence building" to the extent of enabling the nation to design and develop its own submarine. The Advanced Technology Vessel, a euphemism for a titanium-hulled nuclear-powered submarine that was being pursued simultaneously with the German submarine project is still to take to the seas.

Something worse happened to the Bofors contract for the same reason of a groundswell of political opposition on the wave of which several politicians became Prime Ministers. Because of this the technology transfer for the 155-mm howitzer was never consummated. As a consequence a perfectly good weapons platform suffered from spare parts and matching munitions problems; all the shortcomings were rectified at bloated cost post-haste when the Bofors howitzer turned out to be the best weapon to dislodge the Pakistanis from Kargil heights.

It is because the nuclear-powered submarine has not fructified that India had, perforce, to buy the air-independent propulsion (AIP) technology from the French in the shape of the Scorpene submarine. The AIP technology helps the submarine to remain submerged without having to come to the surface for fresh supplies of air for a longer period than the conventional submarine. But it is still a pale shadow of a nuclear-powered submarine which can remain submerged for the entire cycle between maintenance repairs-which runs into several years-or the time required to give the crew rest and recreation which could be several months. Remaining submerged for long periods prevents the enemy from detecting and destroying the submarine during hostilities or trailing it during peacetime. This advantage is compounded by the fact that a nuclear-powered submarine can travel faster underwater for longer periods which is a great advantage in either catching up with an enemy or getting away from hostile waters.

When Defence Minister Pranab Mukherjee visited Berlin to sign afresh the defence accord, there was much focus on Germany's expertise in air-independent propulsion technology. It rings a bell. Is the Scorpene contract with France about to be scuttled? Well, it may because the Naval War Room leak of secret information could well have been intended to benefit the French manufacturer of the submarine. We in India have the proclivity to cancel projects that have been won by crooked means. So much so will Bofors saga revisit Scorpene deal? These are early days to say anything. In replies to questions in Parliament the Government has stated that investigations into the War Room leak had not revealed any connection with the Scorpene deal. This begs the question were the senior naval officers involved in the leak fishing for peanuts? Unlikely! Big information has been sold.

The new Indo-German agreement has been described as facilitating the relationship to graduate from the level of buyer-seller to that of co-production, joint development, and transfer of technology. Joint development of an engine for the indigenous main battle tank Arjun tank will have far-reaching consequences. Also, it could mean an improvement of the performance of the tank as a fighting platform. A more powerful engine would make what is seen to be an ungainly heavy chassis (58 tonnes) more manoeuvrable over a longer range. With retro-improvement and refinements India could become self-sufficient in a whole family of armoured vehicles for its mechanized forces built around the new engine technology. After all, every weapons platform is created around the capabilities of its engine.

Juxtaposed as it is with the Navy War Room Leak, the Indo-German agreement has the potential of providing a clean slate for future plans for the Indian Navy. After all, it is one Service that has progressed impressively from licensed production of Leander class frigates from Britain to the production indigenously of the Godavari class. These are essentially stretched versions of the Leanders but have innovations like enlarged hangar space to take two anti-submarine warfare helicopters. It means India navy achieved a quantum leap in its search and destroy capability. Any foreign collaboration in weapons development will only succeed if we learn the lessons from the Bofors, the LCA, the ATV and other indigenous weapons programmes and not shoot ourselves in the foot to spite our face. National interest is best served by building on the foundations of a military-industrial complex laid by Nehru and the much-maligned Krishna Menon. (Syndicate Features)