EDITORIAL

Changing styles

Is Bipasha Basu in beedi jalai le in Omkara more graceful than Helen was in mera nam chin chin chun in Howrah Bridge? There are many who may not agree with such comparison at all. They will most probably argue that Nadira in mud mud ka na dekh in Shree 420 has been just unbeatable. Some are likely to rediscover the virtues of now-forgotten Kukoo. In their attire, screen conduct and dances they have mirrored the images of their respective eras. The dress has turned skimpy, movement remarkably fast and lyrics and boogie stunningly suggestive. By and large they have been identified with unconventional image of the women of their times. Not surprisingly, therefore, they are called vamps, sex bombs, sexy sirens and what not. None of them seems to mind it. They find in such expressions vindication of their appearance as well as performance. They have acted as perfect foils to Nargis Dutts, Meena Kumaris, Madhubalas and Hema Malinis. It is a tribute to their skills that even the highest paid actresses have been tempted to follow in their footsteps. Madhuri Dixit (ek do teen in Tezaab followed by identical displays in Bade miya chhote miya and Lajja), Raveena Tandon (cheez bari hai mast mast in Mohra), Aishwarya Rai (ishq kameena in Shakti and kajra re in Bunty aur Babli), Urmila Matondkar (chamma chamma in China Gate), Shilpa Shetty (main aai hoon UP, Bihar lootne in Shool), Sushmita Sen (mehboob mere in Fiza and shakalaka baby in Nayak) and Karishma Kapoor (yeh .....more

Why corruption does not hurt economic growth

By Dr Bharat Jhunjhunwala

Germany-based Transparency International has found in a worldwide survey of more than 11,000 Company Executives that Indian companies were most corrupt ...more

Military imbalance with Pakistan....?

By Chandra Mohan

There is a sudden spate of "hard luck" stories (including a letter written by Chief of Air Staff to the Defence Minister) highlighting how there is a slump in ratio of India's conventional military capability vis-a-vis Pakistan. This is a .......more

To hang Afzal Guru or
not to hang?

TALES OF TRAVESTY

By Dr. Jitendra Singh

The question is not whether to hang Afzal Guru or not to hang. The question is what are the basic issues that the various ......more

Wars over water in future?

By Jyotsna Pandit

The UN Secretary General, Kofi Annan, has warned that the next war will not be waged over oil, but over water, which is becoming the scarcest natural resource. His predictions are echoed by a World Bank study, ..........more

EDITORIAL

Changing styles

Is Bipasha Basu in beedi jalai le in Omkara more graceful than Helen was in mera nam chin chin chun in Howrah Bridge? There are many who may not agree with such comparison at all. They will most probably argue that Nadira in mud mud ka na dekh in Shree 420 has been just unbeatable. Some are likely to rediscover the virtues of now-forgotten Kukoo. In their attire, screen conduct and dances they have mirrored the images of their respective eras. The dress has turned skimpy, movement remarkably fast and lyrics and boogie stunningly suggestive. By and large they have been identified with unconventional image of the women of their times. Not surprisingly, therefore, they are called vamps, sex bombs, sexy sirens and what not. None of them seems to mind it. They find in such expressions vindication of their appearance as well as performance. They have acted as perfect foils to Nargis Dutts, Meena Kumaris, Madhubalas and Hema Malinis. It is a tribute to their skills that even the highest paid actresses have been tempted to follow in their footsteps. Madhuri Dixit (ek do teen in Tezaab followed by identical displays in Bade miya chhote miya and Lajja), Raveena Tandon (cheez bari hai mast mast in Mohra), Aishwarya Rai (ishq kameena in Shakti and kajra re in Bunty aur Babli), Urmila Matondkar (chamma chamma in China Gate), Shilpa Shetty (main aai hoon UP, Bihar lootne in Shool), Sushmita Sen (mehboob mere in Fiza and shakalaka baby in Nayak) and Karishma Kapoor (yeh mera dil pyar ka diwana in Don) come in this category. Some of them have consciously chosen to do what is called an "item number" --- a term whose origin is not known but is used to mention a highly evocative dance and song. They have found it a sure way of boosting their sagging career. By now the producers have found that if deftly executed it is an ingredient that can set their cash registers ringing. As a publicity strategy many of them invariably send a word about the "item number" which may or may not have relevance to the theme of their film. It is to be noted that there are quite a few talented actresses who are happy to specialise in "item numbers". Malaika Arora (mahi ve in Kaante), Kashmira Shah (patli kamar in Jungle), Isha Koppikar (ishq samundar in Kaante), Shweta Menon (humko tumse pyar hai in Ishq) and a few others constitute this nearly exclusive club. One can only admire the pace of their rhythm. Clearly there is tremendous amount of study and hard work involved in their exercise.

Any such topic will be incomplete without referring to Zeenat Aman, Aruna Irani, Bindu, Pravin Babi and Padma Khanna. They have been bold and daring. Zeenat got an opportunity to capture the hippie influence in the country. Her dum maro dum (a R.D. Burman creation) portrayal in Hare Rama Hare Krishna had the younger people at one time dancing to her tune. Aruna Irani and Bindu are still active in the arena in varied roles. Pravin Babi represented a fairly heady mixture of oomph and innocence. Their present crop is following a sizzling dare-to-bare approach. Purists are likely to frown upon them. But, as one "item girl" herself remarked: "There is nothing wrong with a film that brings to fore human feelings like lust, desire and passion, as long as it retains its youthfulness, class and aesthetic value." This once again brings us face to face with the old saying that only connoisseurs can admire the real beauty.

Why corruption does not hurt economic growth

By Dr Bharat Jhunjhunwala

Germany-based Transparency International has found in a worldwide survey of more than 11,000 Company Executives that Indian companies were most corrupt in their foreign operations. Switzerland was assessed to be least corrupt while India, China and Russia topped the list. Transparency International also found that domestic corruption and foreign corruption show parallel trends. Countries ranking high in Corruption Perceptions Index and Bribe Payers Index move in tandem. The former measures level of corruption perceived to exist among government officials and politicians while the latter measures propensity of the companies to bribe abroad. Countries ranked high in Corruption Perceptions Index are also found to rank high in Bribe Payers Index. India has the distinction of topping both indices which leads us to the inevitable conclusion that we are most corrupt among the major countries of the world. The question, however, is this: Why is our corruption not hitting at economic growth?

Generally it is assumed that corruption hits at economic growth. For example, a road is constructed poorly due to corruption and wears off soon leading to high cost of transportation and lower rate of economic growth. India and China, being high in corruption, should have lowest growth rates. But the reality is exactly the opposite which these two countries logging highest growth rates at 8 percent-plus.

It seems the economic impact of corruption depends upon the use to which the bribes are put to by the bribe-taker. Say Rs 50 lacs were leaked out of a contract of Rs 1 crore given out for the making of a road. The road was made of inferior quality and affected growth rate adversely. But that leaves us with Rs 50 lacs lying with the corrupt engineer of PWD. He can spend this money in pleasure or he can invest in the share market. The negative impact of corruption is cut if he does the latter. Say the Engineer purchased bonds of RS 50 lacs floated by a company engaged in construction of dams and National Highways. This money is then used in the construction of Highways. The final economic result of corruption is that government road was made of poor quality but a private Highway was made of good quality. The negative impact of corruption is partially nullified.

Actually there are two aspects of corruption-moral and economic. Investment of bribe-money in productive purposes nullifies the adverse economic impact even though it remains immoral. This difference can be seen clearly between India and Latin American countries. Both are highly corrupt but while Indian officers and politicians invest the bribe-money in share- or property markets, the Latin American counterparts sent it away to be deposited in Swiss Banks. The result was that growth rate of Latin American countries declined while that of India did not. One businessman of Lucknow confided to this author that one former Chief Minister of the state has deposited a sum of Rs 20 crores with him for safe keeping at nominal rate of interest. Such corruption does not impact economic growth adversely even though it is immoral. The money was invested in private industry instead of a government project.

Corruption can actually lead to higher growth rate. Economists have the concept of 'propensity to save'. Additional income of Rs 100 is used differently by poor and rich persons. A poor person consumes Rs 90 and saves Rs 10. A rich person consumes Rs 10 and saves Rs 90. The propensity to save is higher among the rich. The extortion of bribes by the Engineer of Electricity Boards, for example, has a positive impact on the economy. The poor person is deprived of Rs 100 which leads to a reduction of Rs 10 in national savings. But the corrupt engineer invests Rs 90 out of the bribes, which leads to a net increase in national savings by Rs 80!

Every country seeking to develop economically has to reduce its level of consumption initially. A rickshaw-wala seeking to buy an auto-rickshaw has to initially consume less and save more. His consumption may increase after he has saved enough to buy an auto-rickshaw. This initial lowering of consumption is called 'primitive accumulation'. England undertook such reduction in the consumption of the poor during the initial phase of industrialization in the eighteenth century. That is captured in Dickensian England. America did the same by reducing consumption of the black slaves imported from Africa. India is doing precisely this through corruption. Money is being extorted by the government officials from the poor and invested in share- and property markets. Surely such corruption hits at the welfare of the people. But it still becomes an engine of economic growth.

The purpose of this analysis is not to justify corruption. But here we are examining why India has a high rate of growth despite high levels of corruption. The answer is that corruption is socially and morally wrong but has little negative economic impact in the investment-oriented culture among the corrupt of our country.

Gandhiji used to say that violence is better than cowardice while non-violence is best. Gandhiji was not a proponent of violence yet he said that violence was better than cowardice. We face a similar situation with respect to corruption. 'Corruption-with-investment' is better than 'Corruption-with-consumption' while non-Corruption is best. The ground reality is that while other countries are following the 'corruption-with-consumption' approach, India is following the 'corruption-with-investment' approach which explains its high rate of growth despite high levels of corruption. But the ideal situation is that of no-corruption.

Just as a student may pass an exam by cheating; or an athlete may win a race by taking drugs, similarly India is growing today by abetting corruption. This may be okay in the short run but will harm us in the long run. The student who has passed exams by cheating fails during interviews for a job. The athlete who wins a race by taking drugs is unable to maintain his record under strict surveillance. Similarly, it will be difficult for India to maintain its present high rate of growth through this process. Many problems can occur. The corrupt officers may start indulging in consumption. The Government will find it difficult to steer investment in desired directions. Planning is taken for a ride by the informal economy. The country may need rural roads but the corrupt engineers may invest in fancy malls. Such misallocation of resources will hurt us in the long run. We must, therefore, eschew the path of corruption and put in place strong mechanisms to prevent it even though it is not having a harmful effect on the economy presently. That said it is equally important not to be swayed by Western harangue about India being the most corrupt country. It is also most investment-oriented country as well, is it not?

Military imbalance with Pakistan....?

By Chandra Mohan

There is a sudden spate of "hard luck" stories (including a letter written by Chief of Air Staff to the Defence Minister) highlighting how there is a slump in ratio of India's conventional military capability vis-a-vis Pakistan. This is a far cry from the nuclear lobby's assertion that once India achieves nuclear weapons capability the cost of defence would be reduced because deterrence would prevail. The lone voices that warned that nuclear parity would shift the equation back to conventional weaponry were ignored in the aftermath of Pokharan II.

The current outcry over "slackness in modernisation" is a symptom of that miscalculation for which the nation could pay very heavily if the demands of the armed forces become translated into Kargil-style off-the-shelf purchases.

Indian Air Force has had to make one such purchase of a surface-to-air missile from Israel recently to fill the gaps in its air defence ground environment system (ADGES). This is because the Defence Research and Development Organisation, (DRDO), has failed to 'deliver' Akash as promised even three years after the deadline. Several prestigious DRDO projects have got stuck in the pipeline for years. This has largely contributed to "slackness" in the modernisation of our armed forces and made the turn to imports.

Despite loud talk, acquisition of military equipment remains a victim of middlemen. It in fact has become a political football as the FIR against George Fernandes, the NDA defence minister shows. That Fernandes himself was not a bit player in the infamous Bofors row is beside the point.

The Israeli connection too is threatening to become controversial. It is a fall-out of Indian move to consider withdrawing its military contingent posted in Lebanon under a UN mandate. New Delhi's action is justified as the terms of engagement have been altered. Intriguingly, a hesitation on the part of Israel to deliver the Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV) and night vision equipment has coincided with this rethink. The contracts were signed before the Lebanon war erupted. Another interesting coincidence is the remark by Deputy Prime Minister Shimon Peres that he hoped that Israeli military equipment sold to India would not be used against Pakistan. Is this new concern a reflection of growing contacts between Israel and Pakistan or a clever attempt at arm-twisting India to fall in line with Tel Aviv plans for Lebanon?

Another factor accentuating India's concerns vis-à-vis Pakistan is the US decision to resume supplies of F-16 fighter aircraft to Islamabad. Frankly, much of the strategic imbalance has not occurred overnight. There has been a steady fall in the squadron strength of the IAF. Because, we have failed to heed the La Fontaine Committee recommendation to buy an Advanced Jet Trainer (AJT) and allowed the issue linger on for decades. What is more we also ignored problems in 'maintenance'.

It was only after the AJT contract was given to the British Hawk that the maintenance problem came into focus. Immediately thereafter came claims that the rate of accidents had fallen by 50 per cent. If this indeed is true, what prevented our defence mandarins to act much earlier and thus saving the lives of the scores of young flying officers who had been killed because of machine failure?

The erosion of the ratio of conventional fighting units is directly connected with our miscalculation that our nuclear weapons capability would contribute to a reduction in the budget for conventional forces. Pakistan changed the scenario by resorting to war by proxy using jehadi terrorists closely supported by its regular infantry.

Counter-insurgency is manpower intensive. The fable of the invincibility of the "Kashmiri freedom fighters" grew till India did a better job of raising counter-insurgency forces in Jammu and Kashmir. In fact, the crushing of the Khalistani movement in Punjab occurred when force levels and synergy between the Army, the paramilitary and the police reached an optimum level. The same needs to be done in Jammu and Kashmir.

Empirical studies show that there should be more security forces in terrorist infested areas. The theory is that for every one terrorist there should be at least upto fifty armed force personnel on duty. That there is some validity in this postulate is highlighted by Pakistan's demand that the Indian Army be withdrawn from Jammu and Kashmir.

Accepting the demand which Pakistan gratuitously calls 'de-militarisation' will leave the field open to the jehadi terrorists 5000 of whom have received training in camps in Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir and Pakistan itself and are waiting for an opportunity to infiltrate across the Line of Control (LoC). This lot is bolstered by the more than 150,000 retired personnel of the Northern Light Infantry of the Pakistan Army (the same lot who disguised as "mujahids" infiltrated and captured the heights in Kargil in 1999).

It is not for nothing that the ULFA in Assam and the Manipuri insurgents should choose this moment to intensify their militancy. The intention is to stretch the Indian security forces and make it difficult for them to concentrate their efforts.

Thus ratio and force levels have deteriorated over decades. That the issue should suddenly surface at this point of time beginning with the leaked letter from the Chief of Air Staff to the Defence Minister points to an orchestration. Military force levels and concomitant military equipment cannot be enhanced in short time frames. Manpower improvement would take the better part of one year and acquisition of equipment would range across a decade (in the case of aircraft).

Any attempt to stampede the government into making off-the-shelf acquisitions will, in the first instance, undercut the intent and purpose of recently declared acquisitions policy. There should be no a single vender situation not merely to strike the best bargain but also to ensure that the arms procurement will not become political football. (Syndicate Features)

To hang Afzal Guru or not to hang?
TALES OF TRAVESTY

By Dr. Jitendra Singh

The question is not whether to hang Afzal Guru or not to hang. The question is what are the basic issues that the various mutually contending parties are trying to debate or pretending to debate?

Has Afzal Guru been denied justice and wrongly handed out the death sentence? If so, then the Hon'ble Judges who passed such an order deserve to be called to explain. Is our judicial system fallacious? If so, it calls for appropriate amends. Is the death sentence or hanging too uncivilized in a civilised democracy? If so, it calls for an amendment in the Indian Constitution to once and for all abolish the provision of death sentence and simultaneously also calls for an apology from the Government for some of the politically famous death sentences handed out from Nathu Ram Godse down to Beant Singh.

Interestingly, none of the political parties or groups opposed to Afzal Guru's hanging say with clarity whether they consider Guru innocent. They just want that whatever be Guru's crime, he should not be hanged lest that should have a negative fall-out in the Kashmir Valley--- whatever that means. The common problem with all the Kashmir based ''mainstream'' parties ---whether it be PDP or National Conference----- is that they are not sincerely concerned about the fate of Guru, they are more concerned about making a political capital by trying to outdo each other in a bid to appear ''saviours'' of Kashmiri people because their voter constituency is concentrated in the Valley while problem with the BJP is that its voter constituency lies outside the Valley and therefore the more it raises the bogey of ''nationalism'' by supporting Guru's hanging, the more it hopes to gain.

And, what does Afzal Guru himself want or other socalled Kashmiri ''Mujahideen'' like him want? On the one hand, they proclaim their lack of faith in the constitution of India and find nothing wrong in attacking the parliament house which is the seat of Indian democracy. On the other hand, they expect clemency or mercy from the same constitution which they refuse to subscribe and plead for liniency in the name of democracy from the same democratic order which they vehemently defy. If they are true ''Mujahideens'' with conviction and courage, why don't they gladly accept the death sentence and allow themselves to be hanged without regret like Sardar Bhagat Singh so that tomorrow when Kashmir eventually gains independence, their names figure in the history in golden letters? What is the character and integrity of ''Mujahideens'' like Afzal Guru who are ready to ambush the Parliament house and kill innocents but develop cold feet the moment they are apprehended and at the very prospect of hanging, they send in their wives and children to the President of India to beg for mercy.

In a nutshell, Kashmir has become a vested interest for petty politicking. For the socalled mainstream parties, to exploit their respective vote banks. For the socalled separatist organisations, to blackmail the Govt of India while simultaneously also extracting their pound of flesh from the powers-that-be in Pakistan. To cite just one example of the duplicity of socalled separatist leaders, they find nothing wrong in claiming MLA pensions, concessional air tickets for elder citizens, hospital treatment expenditures and personal security---- all under the provision of constitution of India which they outwardly profess not to accept or subscribe.

Nevertheless, as sanity and wisdom dawn in strife torn Kashmir, the common man will gradually understand that all these self-styled Kashmir protagonists have their own selfish agendas irrespective of whether they belong to ''mainstream'' or ''separatist'' camp. Umapathy sums it up in a single poetic cliche "---Na Yeh Apne, Na Woh Apne!''

Wars over water in future?

By Jyotsna Pandit

The UN Secretary General, Kofi Annan, has warned that the next war will not be waged over oil, but over water, which is becoming the scarcest natural resource. His predictions are echoed by a World Bank study, which says: "Be under no illusions: the impact of general water shortages is going to hit our cities. In the 21st century, wars will be fought over water." India is not a stranger to these conflicts, both internally - as witnessed over the sharing of the river waters between states and across frontiers, in the ongoing dispute with Bangladesh and Pakistan.

West Asia, chronically deficient in water, was a potential flashpoint, with Israel occupying the Golan Heights, source of some of the tributaries of the Jordan River, and thus controlling supplies to Palestine and Jordan itself. For the last 15- years, however, there have been negotiations between the three countries over "trading" water for money. Turkey has been damming the Tigris and Euphrates and thereby depriving Syria and, further downstream, Iraq. To complicate matters, the Kurdish separatists occupy the headwaters of the Twin Rivers in Turkey and are fighting to claim their homeland. On the Nile, there are disputes between Egypt, the Sudan and Ethiopia, with the downstream state - Egypt - being dominant, economically and militarily. Closer home, Bangladesh has been claiming with justification that India has cut off its supplies with the Farakka barrage. At the same time, it does not explain how Bangladesh, which witnesses very heavy rainfall, cannot conserve its own water. India has problems with Pakistan over the Indus waters too.

The tragedy is that the world has taken the availability of water for granted: it is wasted with impunity, either by squandering this precious resource or using it for the wrong purposes. By 2004, there were 1.62 billion people in the world without drinking water - probably the biggest number in this country - and 1.7 billion without sanitation. Considering that something like 80 per cent of all disease in developing countries is water-borne, the human and economic costs of this scarcity are truly awesome. By 2050, it is estimated that two-thirds of the world's people will be short of water.

It is sobering to remember that only three per cent of the world's water is fresh, the remainder being salt. What is even less commonly known is that of this three per cent. 99 per cent is either trapped in glaciers or is underground and therefore not economically assessable. In other words, only 0.03 per cent of the world's water resources are available for all uses -in homes, farms and factories. There is simply not enough to go around unless there are drastic changes in the present consumption levels throughout the globe. Humans feel thirst after loss of only one per cent of body fluid and are in mortal danger near 10 per cent.

At a recent international symposium in Stockholm, held to coincide with the annual water festival there, participants pointed to agriculture being one of the prime culprits.

To add insult to injury, water is subsidised in agriculture almost everywhere. In the US, the average price paid for this resource is less than one-thirtieth of it cost. Of course, the production of meat and dairy produce accounts for a great deal of water use. If people stopped eating meat - in Europe today, there is a 20 per cent drop in beef consumption in the wake of Britain's "Mad cow Disease" - a tremendous amount of water would be freed for other purposes. On the other hand, the new elites of China, India and other developing countries are developing a taste for meat, which is considered essential for modern living. Experts are debating whether such consumption can be discouraged by raising the price of meat or that of water, or both.

Industry is a voracious consumer too. When the Communist Party was in power in Kerala in the late 'fifties, it offered the Birlas free supplies for its Gwalior Rayon plant near Kozhikote. Today, "white goods" manufacturers in the West are one step ahead in the effort to cut down drastically on consumption in appliances, just as automobile manufacturers are streamlining the design of new models. In Sweden, Electrolux has reduced the consumption of energy and water by 75 per cent in its appliances. A dishwasher uses just 15 litres, which is less than a person would use by hand, and a washing machine employs 40 litres for 5 kg. However, this does not answer the fundamental question of whether the water resources of the world permit every family to own such devices, even assuming that they could afford to.

Indeed, the question was raised at the Stockholm meet as to whether people had a fundamental right to water, just as they have to life itself. One speaker stressed that international organisations, national and local governments should adopt a basic human requirement of 50 litres per day and, what is more, guarantee access to it independently of an individual's status. Half of this goes towards drinking water and sanitation, and the remainder for other basic needs like cooking and washing.

The most water-deficient countries are in sub-Saharan Africa: Gambia has just 4.5 litres per day for domestic use. Among our neighbours, Bhutan has less than 15 litres and Bangladesh a little over 17. India and China have reported over 50 litres a head each, but this hides enormous regional variations, as well as class distinctions. It is true that India is blessed with some of the highest rainfall and snow melt in the world, but it is geographically badly distributed and seasonally erratic.

The emphasis today is on "water markets": the World Bank estimates that in a decade, around $ 700 billion will be invested in water-based projects in developing countries. In the West, the service is even being privatised, like the UK, and French and British companies are bidding for global contracts, like that to provide Buenos Aires its water! There is thus a growing "water industry", which assesses the cost of cleaning up water in 2020 at $ 150 billion.

At the same time, there is need for users to band together and decide priorities for themselves, particularly in poor rural societies. Water ought to be managed at the lowest appropriate levels by local people. India already has some outstanding examples, like the Pani Panchayat system in villages outside Pune, where even the landless have a right to water from the canal and can barter or lease such rights. Only by recognising that even the poorest or the weakest have a right to this precious resource can conflicts at every level be avoided. INAV



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