EDITORIAL

Dream merchants

Should it surprise anyone that the people from as far as Kerala have joined hands to cheat inhabitants of Poonch of crores of rupees? They have done it through a modus operandi which is by now all too familiar. From the official accounts it is evident that they had calculated in advance that the residents of remote areas could be easily duped. They floated non-banking finance companies and offered alluring schemes under collective investment plans with high rate of interest and prompt returns. This was enough to enable them to spread their net wide. Apparently the gullible depositors did not bother to check whether these agro-based business concerns had obtained any mandatory approval, for instance of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI). They were taken in by the promise of quick monetary benefits and now find themselves left high and dry. Having staked their hard-earned . ...more

Pakistan again

Only the naive will be surprised by Pakistan's move to rake up the Kashmir issue again in a United Nations Committee last weekend. Speaking at the UN Decolonisation Committee a Pakistani delegate has demanded "right of self-determination" for the people of Jammu and Kashmir. He has referred to the Security Council resolutions in this behalf. He has stated that a solution of the "dispute" over the State is central to the establishment of durable peace in ....... ...more

Global warming

By Tukoji R Pandit

The British entrepreneur, Sir Richard Branson, may be famous for his flamboyant style of doing business and living. But some serious issues of the day, particularly environment, also seem to interest him. He is not alone when he urges a more focused approach to solving the global warming ....more

Failure of growth models

By J.D. Sethi

Economists invented the phrase 'stagflation;' decades ago when they encountered for the first time, a situation in which stagnation and inflation existed simultaneously although it had been though until then that the two phenomena were mutually contradictory and both could not exist at the .......more

Will Musharraf relent now?

By Sarla Handoo

Of the 15 persons arrested in 7/11 Mumbai blasts case, 11 have been found to be Pakistanis, not just nationals but the ones who got training in Pakistan to cause blasts in Mumbai. This has been proved not by politicians in India but by a duly established court of law. The hand of ISI, Pakistan's intelligence Agency, in the blasts has been established. If it has put Islamabad in a tight corner after its repeated denials of any involvement in the blasts it has also ......more

EDITORIAL

Dream merchants

Should it surprise anyone that the people from as far as Kerala have joined hands to cheat inhabitants of Poonch of crores of rupees? They have done it through a modus operandi which is by now all too familiar. From the official accounts it is evident that they had calculated in advance that the residents of remote areas could be easily duped. They floated non-banking finance companies and offered alluring schemes under collective investment plans with high rate of interest and prompt returns. This was enough to enable them to spread their net wide. Apparently the gullible depositors did not bother to check whether these agro-based business concerns had obtained any mandatory approval, for instance of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI). They were taken in by the promise of quick monetary benefits and now find themselves left high and dry. Having staked their hard-earned money they rue their decision to have blindly invested it. It is the same method that dream merchants have tried earlier even in this city and Kathua where one of them had travelled all the way from Chennai. Much to our anguish they have done it successfully without fail. Strange although it may appear the people succumb to such temptations despite adverse publicity about their proven fraudulent nature. This can only be attributed to proverbial human greed. One facet of it, of course, is that it drives one section of unscrupulous people to feast on the innocence of the other. Jammu's Crime Bench has done well to identify the alleged culprits who belonged to Chandigarh and Mohali (Punajb), apart from Kerala. Its search for the accused had taken it to UP as well. It is again a feather in its cap that it has found out the property these companies had bought with the help of money illegally collected from the people. Its seizures include immovable property including land, a mineral water plant, shopping complex and a printing press, among other things. While most of these ill-gotten assets were in the Jammu region, one of them was located in Saharanpur (UP) and some in Punjab. This confirms the range of deceit and deception. It is not for nothing that no recovery of cash has been reported in this scandal. The reason is too simple to merit any elaboration.

What is inexplicable, however is the inability of the police and administrative apparatus to spot and nail such exploiters in time. In the present instance also they had arrived in the Mandi area of Poonch way back in 2001. Surely they must have carried out some sort of publicity --- either through a word of mouth or printed handbill --- as a decoy. Why should it have gone unnoticed? This raises a suspicion about some sort of collusion at the official level unless those concerned have been too naïve. It does appear odd that a large body of persons --- about 300 in this case --- should have been taken for a ride without causing an eyebrow to be raised till they are rendered penniless.

The people at large should be extremely careful while making investments. This is an era of competitive tax regimes. It is a hard reality. How can there be space for any delusion?

Pakistan again

Only the naive will be surprised by Pakistan's move to rake up the Kashmir issue again in a United Nations Committee last weekend. Speaking at the UN Decolonisation Committee a Pakistani delegate has demanded "right of self-determination" for the people of Jammu and Kashmir. He has referred to the Security Council resolutions in this behalf. He has stated that a solution of the "dispute" over the State is central to the establishment of durable peace in South Asia. He has sung a familiar tune: "A peace resolution will need to be acceptable to Pakistan, India, and above all, people of Jammu and Kashmir." Of course, he has pointed to the ongoing composite dialogue between the two neighbouring countries. He has taken care to express the hope that the "recent meeting between President Musharraf and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh in Havana will help carry forward the peace process" and lead to a decision on all outstanding issues. The only element of surprise in his statement is that it has taken Pakistan so long to break its silence about the State in the world body. It had not only kept mum in the UN General Assembly and other forums for several months but also declared time and again that the UN resolutions were no more relevant to the prevailing situation. That does not mean that it had shut its mouth while talking to New Delhi or other countries. In bilateral engagements it had insisted upon describing J&K as the "core' issue. This was despite the fact that the United States and other countries had always turned its face towards India for finding a cure to its headache. The turnabout at the UN is another clear indication that Pakistan will never give up its Kashmir itch. It will not mend its ways till it is made to realise the futility of its pursuit. It needs to be pointed out that the Decolonisation Committee does not have J&K on its formal agenda. Pakistan's utterance may well be designed to persuade the Committee to see merit in its stand.

Evidently it believes in the philosophy of Nazi Propaganda Minister Joseph Goebbbels: "If you tell a lie big enough and keep repeating it, people will eventually come to believe it. The lie can be maintained only for such time as the State can shield the people from the political, economic and/or military consequences of the lie. It thus becomes vitally important for the State to use all of its powers to repress dissent, for the truth is the mortal enemy of the lie, and thus by extension, the truth is the greatest enemy of the State." One has just to substitute Pakistan for "the State' in this observation. Goebbels' boss Adolf Hitler was more succinct: "Make the lie big, make it simple, keep saying it, and eventually they will believe it." The fate that Hitler and Goebbels met because of their reckless speeches and ruthless conduct is not a secret. They had to literally find their own graves. Can the destiny of their followers be different? Pakistan is mistaken if it thinks that it can again beguile the Anglo-American bloc. Its support to terrorism is too transparent to be ignored. It should see the writing on the wall and behave like a good neighbour.

Global warming

By Tukoji R Pandit

The British entrepreneur, Sir Richard Branson, may be famous for his flamboyant style of doing business and living. But some serious issues of the day, particularly environment, also seem to interest him. He is not alone when he urges a more focused approach to solving the global warming problem because neglecting it would only lead the world towards catastrophe. While pledging a sum of $3 million for renewable energy initiatives in Britain, he has dwelt on the need for the aviation industry, his main business, to cut down carbon dioxide emissions. A country like India where the ill effects of global warming are already visible could perhaps profit from his approach.

Though the aviation industry accounts for only two per cent of global CO2 emissions his ideas on ways to reduce the release of this greenhouse gas into the atmosphere deserve serious consideration. By his reckoning CO2 emissions can be brought down by as much as 150 million tonnes a year through some simple measures to be taken up by airlines, airports and governments.

First tow aircraft by a small tug to their starting point and switch on the engines about 10 minutes before take-off. Similarly, descend should also be made slower and smoother to cut down fuel consumption while landing. Generally, the aircraft engines are switched on an hour or more before take-off, both for reaching the takeoff point and then waiting for clearance for takeoff. Branson's suggestions will get an additional welcome in many Indian cities like Mumbai and Hyderabad where the airports appear to be almost in the middle of the metropolis and the noise from planes only adds to the already high noise pollution levels.

Branson wants a single air traffic control system for Europe to optimise the use of airspace. A study by the International Air Transport Association suggests that a more efficient air traffic control system can effect a saving of 12 per cent in global aviation CO2 emissions.

Greenhouse emission is a big problem because the world's dependence on fossil fuels has not been decreasing despite all the talk about renewable and alternative sources of energy, which are also cleaner. Many environmentalists worry that despite the availability of technology for producing carbon-free fuel global warming remains unchecked. It has to be added here that the environmentally friendly technology is still to be introduced on a mass scale.

There is a view that global warming is one of the natural phenomena that had visited the world in the past also-10000 years or so ago. Glaciers were melting then too. The earth had gone through the cycle of warming and cooling. So, their contention is if the world survived the effects of global warming in the past so why cannot it do so now? Some also point to 'benefits' from global warming-longer growing season and hardier crops.

It might be erroneous to become complacent about the effect of global warming in today's world, which is after all very different from the world that existed 10,000 years ago or before that. A major difference about the current global warming is that it has not happened due to natural causes but is a contribution of the inhabitants of the planet earth. The deterioration in climate has been more pronounced since the last decades of the previous century. According to the UN Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change today's atmosphere has 30 per cent more CO2 than 100 years ago.

A native Canadian proverb says we did not inherit our planet from our parents but borrowed it from our children. It is a telling reminder of the harm that will come mankind's way if the phenomenon of global warming continues to grow, largely because of apathy of governments in countries responsible for large-scale greenhouse gas emissions. In fact, the earth today is believed to be warmer than it has ever been in at least in the last million years. Many environmentalists are writing doomsday scenarios about global warming-droughts and floods and rising sea levels that will inundate many coastal areas in the world.

By the end of this century sea levels can rise up to a meter, thanks to global warming. It is also being said often enough that in future nations may be going to war over water and not territory. In fact in many Indian cities a sort of war over water is witnessed every summer. All across the northern hemisphere, summer temperatures have been rising. It has been reported that in some European countries nuclear plants have been forced to cut down output because the river water that is used to cool the reactors is becoming too warm. Forest fires are being reported from many European countries too. The situation will not improve as long as greenhouse gases emissions are not brought down.

The 1997 Kyoto protocol to limit greenhouse gas emissions (to 1990 levels) does not seem to have done enough to reduce the danger of global warming. The US, the world's biggest emitter of greenhouse gases, refused to sign the protocol (otherwise signed by 120 countries) because it says that it will amount to enforcing 'an energy diet' that will slow down the economy.

This line of argument obviously overlooks certain crucial facts. In the first place what makes the task of cutting down greenhouse gas emissions difficult is that CO2 has a life of 50 to 100 years in the atmosphere. Ocean warming further compounds the problem. Heat will continue to enter the ocean and make the climate warmer for a long time even if CO2 levels are brought down today. Carbon dioxide emissions cannot be brought down overnight by capturing the gas and then sequestering it.

What becomes clear is that there is no shortcut to reversing the trend of high gas emissions, especially when dependence on fossil fuels does not show signs of lessening at the moment. However, all may not be lost still if efforts to contain greenhouse gas emissions are made more earnestly-and urgently. (Syndicate Features)

Failure of growth models

By J.D. Sethi

Economists invented the phrase 'stagflation;' decades ago when they encountered for the first time, a situation in which stagnation and inflation existed simultaneously although it had been though until then that the two phenomena were mutually contradictory and both could not exist at the same time. Political scientists and economists now have to show the same kind of verbal inventiveness because we have situation today in India in which two contradictory phenomena are going on simultaneously. After more than five decades of planning, the rural sector has become an island of mass poverty. It is totally disorganised in contrast to urban sector, which is buoyant, well-knit. It is generally conceded though grudgingly that growth models adopted by us failed to eliminate rural-urban dichotomies.

The real problem is that the power elite have been found deficient in meeting serious challenges of rural destitution. They are unable to explain the slowdown of the growth rate of rural economy despite what is called the 'green revolution', continuous increase in the number of people being pushed down the poverty line in villages.

It is not surprising, therefore, if the need for organising the poor, particularly the rural poor, is now being debated, though without an intensive analysis. Neither conceptually nor operationally has it been found easy to give shape to it. In fact, there is some scepticism about the whole exercise. The 12th Plan documents (under preparation) vaguely talk about organising the rural poor as a necessary condition for the success of distributive justice, which Prime Minister Manmohan Singh want to be given to the villagers.

If is not just another expression of a pious hope, critical for the success of all redistributive laws, policies and programmes is that the poor be organised and made conscious of the benefits intended for them. Organised tenants have to see that the tenancy laws are implemented. Organisations of landless have to see that surplus lands are identified and distributed to them in accordance with the laws within a reasonable period. Local leaders of the poor have to ensure that all area plans and sectoral plans designed for the benefit of their localities and target groups are effectively administered.

There are five identified ways in which the poor can be organised. History and experience of other countries may suggest that the best and the surest method is some kind of rural unionism. Some peasant organisations like Kisan Sabha were created on a trade union pattern but only after a prolonged struggle over a wide area. But the peasant movement somehow did not make a mark. Trade unionism does not cover the whole of this labour force, even in industry and plantations. The scope for its extension to the rural areas where three-fourths of the population live is even more in doubt.

The very fact that rural workers are not spatially concentrated makes their being on traditional trade union lines a hopeless enterprise. That was one of the reasons that Marx denied a radical character to the peasantry. Even cooperatives, which inbibe some elements of trade unionism, have not made much headway because the rural poor are kept out of cooperative movement.

A second possible method of organising the poor is mobilisation by political parties in terms of their objective of acquiring a mass political base and educating the common people. Through their cadre and other party functionaries, political parties can organise small groups belonging to different economic or social classes. But such an approach presupposes a wide spectrum of cadre-mass parties of the kind that does not exist in India.

Political parties of all hue and variety often operate through the rural power structure which is practically pitted against the poor, and in some cases against the class interest as a whole. Even organising the rural ploretariat, not to speak of other class of rural poor, points to difficulties of organising the rural masses.

A third way of getting the poor organised is by deliberately transforming the political, administrative and social structure into a highly decentralised system of power. Most prevailing models of democracy exclude direct participation of the people in political institutions except once electing so-called their representatives to parliament and state legislatures. Literally, this process over the years has turned out to be nothing more than a ritual.

The argument that the local political power structure is highly iniquitous and that the decentralisation of power will go against the interests of the poor is at best, a half-truth and is put forward by those who now control the power structure and are unwilling to part with it. There is no evidence to show that decentralisation along with democratisation has stood in the way of the poor benefiting from the process of social and economic development.

However, it is a patent fact that one of the important instruments which have proved a hurdle in the operation of the rural poor is the local bureaucracy. The bureaucracy of the colonial days was structured as an authoritarian instrument, the same system continues. In fact, the local bureaucracy is part of both the local and the higher power structure and does not in any way look with favour upon any scheme of organising the rural poor which would then challenge their power. It is partly for this reason that the bureaucracy is generally against decentralisation in general and its extension to the rural areas in particular. Whatever programmes are there for the under-privileged, the bureaucrats would like to run them through system of patronage.

Fourth, since there are limits to trade unionism being extended to the rural areas, cooperatives might be the best method of organising the rural society in which the poor can also join. This is not new idea. Cooperatives have been a great success in many areas in a variety of fields such as marketing and distribution of inputs and credit. But the movement has generally acted in favour of rich and middle peasants who have some assets of their own. The rural poor have never been able to benefit from the cooperatives to any significant degree. In fact, the cooperative movement have become an instrument for the appropriation of the resources allocated for local development by a small minority of the rich farmers.

A fifth method widely advanced and practised is the use of voluntary association in organising the weaker sections and the urban under-oriented voluntary organisations in the rural areas has not always been a happy experience. In fact, in some cases it has proved positively harmful. Only those voluntary organisations which are both totally rural-oriented and rural located or based in small or medium towns, nearest to the rural areas, can make some headway. (INAV)

Will Musharraf relent now?

By Sarla Handoo

Of the 15 persons arrested in 7/11 Mumbai blasts case, 11 have been found to be Pakistanis, not just nationals but the ones who got training in Pakistan to cause blasts in Mumbai. This has been proved not by politicians in India but by a duly established court of law. The hand of ISI, Pakistan's intelligence Agency, in the blasts has been established. If it has put Islamabad in a tight corner after its repeated denials of any involvement in the blasts it has also embarrassed New Delhi since it recently decided to have a joint mechanism with Pakistan to fight terrorism.

The Court verdict has vindicated India's stand that Pakistan has a hand in the blasts. In the earlier cases also it has come out with proofs to establish its allegations of terrorist activities taking place in India at the behest of Pakistan which Islamabad has been rejecting out of hand. Will Pakistan respond now?

Despite its best efforts it is becoming increasingly difficult for Pakistan to negate its involvement in terrorist activities. Look what the Afghan president Hamid Karzai has to say about Musharraf. He holds Pakistan responsible for the recent upsurge of Taliban violence in Afghanistan. He told UN General Assembly that NATO forces would not be able to deal with insurgents in Afghanistan unless "terrorist sanctuaries" outside Afghanistan are destroyed. He clearly meant the bases existed in Pakistan.

Though Musharraf rejected the allegations, Hamid Karzai remains unconvinced. During their recent concurrent visit to the US, the two used epithets like 'ostrich' and 'snake' to describe each others' efforts in dealing with terrorism.

Karzai minced no words in saying that Pakistan has been harbouring Taliban rebels and that General Musharraf has failed to draw people away from the Islamic militants. He said Pakistan's toleration of Militants helped make Afghanistan unstable. He went to the extent of saying some in the region (meaning Pakistan) used extremists to maintain political power.

No less important is the truce, which the General has arrived with the militants in tribal pockets of North Western Frontier Province (NWFP) by ending the military campaign against the terrorists, in exchange for no attacks against his forces. He has thus given up to the terrorists. Hamid Karzai equates this with "trying to train a snake against somebody else."

Though Musharraf tries to defend the deal by saying that the agreement is with the tribal leaders and not the terrorists, it finds no takers across the world. Even the US, which cautiously endorsed the deal, is disturbed. And that prompted President Bush to remark that if he finds concrete evidence of presence of Osama-bin-Laden in Pakistan he would order his forces to enter Pakistan. The verbal brawl between America's two important allies in the fight against terror has put the US into an odd situation.

As if that was not enough, the secret report by the British Defence Ministry made public by the BBC, has added to the General's misfortunes. It says that the ISI is indirectly backing Islamist terrorism and that Pakistan Intelligence Agency should usefully "be dismantled." The leaked report was written by a British Army officer for the Defence Ministry think-tank. It criticizes the ISI for its continuing support to Al-Qaida. The British Government says the report has "no standing" with it, but has not denied its existence.

Upon his own admission, Pakistan received bounty money to the extent of $70 to 80 million, from the US for handing over wanted Al Qaida terrorists. If that is the case, it only indicates that General Musharraf is more concerned about his own welfare than meeting the terrorist challenge.

It appears that Musharraf is aware that time is running out for him and the US may stop funding him any time. That would make his position extremely tenuous. The campaign to promote the sales of his book launched from the US seems to be part of the same realization.

And look at the rage in Canada on General Musharraf's remarks about Canadians whining at a few causalities of their soldiers in Afghanistan. Leading Canadian papers Globe and the Mail questioned Pakistan's bonafides in the war on terror. They described Pakistan "at best a reluctant and marginal ally in the fight against terrorism".

So, who is convinced by what General Musharraf is saying about his 'magnificent' role in curbing terrorism!

No one really! But who will tell the General that he is wasting his time in trying to impress the world. The world knows the role played by his country in dealing with terrorism. It is only because of strategic compulsions that Pakistan continues to be a favourite of the US so far.

Perhaps the General too knows it well. Is his so called cooperation too a strategic compulsion for him? May be yes.

The crucial question is will the General relent now or will he continue to take refuge under what he calls "conclusive evidence". (Syndicate Features)



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