Daily Excelsior... Editorial

EDITORIAL

Restore them later

Closed eyes

Skill development

By Dr Bharat Jhunjhunwala

President Musharraf
and Kashmir dispute

By Swami Raj Sharma

India's unstable environs

By Gurmeet Kanwal

EDITORIAL

Restore them later

The photograph of Dogra rulers' valuable antiques being shifted from Toshakhana in the Mubarak Mandi tells more than one tale. First, it underlines the bitter truth that such treasure has been a sheer waste so far. It could have provided a food for thought for students of history, art, culture and archaeology. Instead it has remained hidden from public view for well over five decades. Its fate would have been the same but for a sudden fire that has woken up everyone about it. Secondly, it has served to remind us about our own vulnerability to selective amnesia. If we look within we will find that we have started talking about its presence only in the wake of the blaze. All along we have kept silent. We may have known that there is something precious in the erstwhile treasury of kings. However, we have never cared to find out the details. As citizens we have been found wanting in this behalf. The Government is always a favourite whipping boy in such situations. It can't be denied either that as a continuing entity after 1947 it has not found enough time to preserve the former palaces and residences of Dogra Maharajas. If in the beginning after the Accession it had to per force use the historic buildings for running its own affairs it showed general lack of interest later. It is at a snail's place that offices and courts have been shifted from the Mubarak Mandi. In fact, some of them are still there including in new buildings that are completely incongruous with old structures. How many times have we raised our voice against such encroachments? To us it appears to be a relevant query at this juncture when there is a rush of blood to many a head against shifting the prized possessions of Toshakhana to a specially built strong room in the Civil Secretariat. In our view, such belligerence is rather misplaced. For, there is merit in the Government's stand that the antiques are exposed to the risk of being damaged or stolen now that their existence is no more a secret.

Not only the Toshakhana but also the Mubarak Mandi as a whole can't be regarded as a safe place by any yardstick. Actually, the forts have been ravaged both by man and nature. It is a miracle that some of the buildings still stand as a testimony to the genius of their creators. Therefore, the concerned citizens need to reconsider their priorities. The best course for them will be to join hands and persuade the Government to accelerate the pace of preserving the Mubarak Mandi as a heritage monument. The work being done presently in this direction is too slow. Funds made available for the purpose are also meagre. There is a piecemeal approach that can't be expected to yield results in the near future. At this rate it may take decades to complete the entire project.

Once the Mubarak Mandi is restored to its glory it should be possible to shift the royal items back from the Secretariat. They can enrich the existing arts' gallery. There are museums in the country that are extremely well protected against thefts and erosion. Similar deterrents can be put in place in the Mubarak Mandi as well.

Closed eyes

Close-circuit television (CCTV) network is also known as unforgiving eye. Many people in the United States and Europe especially don't like its use. They consider it is an invasion on the privacy of citizens. The gaze of the cameras, according to them, does not fall equally on the entire intended crowd (in streets, offices, hotels, airports and railway stations). The result is that those who look less respectable are singled out for questioning which amounts to their further victimisation. According to this theory, CCTV is thus a tool of injustice "through the amplification of differential and discriminatory policing." Its proponents tend to believe that the instrument does not reduce crime or its fear. If anything, it increases anxiety. They argue that it induces paranoia and fear of punishment and hence should at least be removed if not totally destroyed. One can't agree with this line of thinking in the present times. It is logical to think that only those will shudder at the prospect of being watched who have something to hide. Why should a law-abiding citizen be afraid of any remote-controlled surveillance? If unduly harassed in a democracy he has more than one option to seek redressal of his grievances. He can always approach higher authorities, move courts of law or mobilise public opinion against any undesirable intrusion into his personal life. However, it appears that those in charge of ensuring smooth functioning of CCTVs at the Jammu Railway Station are confident that the mere sight of these objects is enough to have the desired effect! How else can one explain their inability to replace CCTV cameras that have been obsolete for the last four months? It is a common knowledge that the majority of these appliances have not been working since August. There are 16 of them installed at the Station. It is a serious matter that none of them is able to fulfil its objective. Some are motionless. The others give blurred pictures. Initially it was said that these had been sent for immediate repairs. There is no reason to disbelieve that the concerned Railway officials in Ferozepur have been sounded time and again to tackle the problem. It is not clear why they have not been able to react so far. There is regular correspondence between the police and the Railways but the real action is not getting transferred from files to the field. One hopes that the time is not being spent on preparing the ground for passing the buck should a terrorist strike take place. In that eventuality whichever organisation is responsible should be held accountable. The Station has proved vulnerable to mischief-makers in the past. This fact does not require any reiteration. Thousands visit it every day from different corners of the country. Their safety can't be allowed to be held to ransom by a lethargic, insensitive and irresponsible government apparatus.

This incident once again underlines the argument for upgrading Jammu to the status of a divisional Railway headquarters. An occurrence like this can't wait for remedial action infinitely. Often we have argued in these columns that the fast expanding train network in the State calls for greater and more efficient supervision nearer home. A delay in this behalf can prove disadvantageous. The closed CCTVs are a telling case in point.

Skill development

By Dr Bharat Jhunjhunwala

Prime Minister Dr Manmohan Singh repeatedly emphasizes we need to attain higher rates of economic growth to banish poverty and unemployment. On the other hand Chief Minister of UP Mulayam Singh Yadav said at the recent National Development Council meeting that economic growth alone will not lead to this result. Underlying this debate is different perceptions of relationship between economic growth and unemployment. The direct impact of economic growth on employment is positive. More factories and software parks are established leading to more employment. But the indirect effect is often negative. The establishment of a large soap-making factory provides jobs to a few thousand workers but takes away the livelihood of lacs of small and cottage soap making units. A similar fate has befallen many trades. Plastic bags have taken away employment of paper bag making units, plastic pitchers have rendered potters unemployed and bottled soft drinks have led to the extinction of buttermilk suppliers. The final impact of economic growth on employment depends upon the direct and indirect impacts and cannot be settled by logical arguments because both are correct. We need to assess the strength of the two impacts historically to assess which is stronger.

The impact on employment is also twofold. The organized sector consists of big factories and offices and government servants. These employees generally get weekly holidays, medical benefits and Provident Fund and gratuity. Their emoluments are more. According to the Economic Survey published by the Government of India the average emoluments of public sector employees in 2003 was Rs 18,749 per month. Presently it may be around Rs 25,000 per month. The number of these high-quality jobs increased from 267 lacs in 1991 to 282 lacs in 1997. But the number of persons in the work force increased from about 39.9 crores to 41.2 crores in the same period. The increase in organized sector employment was 15 lac numbers against an increase in work force of 130 lacs. Clearly the organized sector is not absorbing all the persons entering the work force. Worse, the number of jobs in this sector has declined from 282 lacs in 1997 to 270 lacs in 2003. Economic growth is having an adverse effect on employment in the organized sector lately. These data disprove the Prime Minister's statement that high economic will lead to creation of jobs at least in the organized sector.

The situation in unorganized sector is better. This sector covers domestic help, agricultural labourers and small farmers, street hawkers and the like. These employees generally do not get weekly day off, provident fund or other facilities. Their wages are meager-presently they earn about Rs 100 a day. According to data available at the website of Directorate General of Employment and Training (DGET), the number of persons employed in the unorganized sector increased from 36.2 crore in 1997 to 37.3 crore in 2003. The increase was 1.1 crore jobs against entry of 1.3 persons in the work force. That is good but still inadequate. The number of jobs available should increase more than the number of persons entering the market in order to generate a demand pressure and push the wages upward and banish poverty.

According to DGET data the number of unemployed declined from 92 lac in 1988 to 75 lac in 1994. Employment was being generated and unemployment was falling then. The situation since reversed. The number of unemployed has again increased to 91 lac in 2000. The generation of employment in the unorganized sector has slowed down. Jobs are being generated in smaller numbers than new persons entering the work force.

The Prime Minister says that fast economic growth will banish unemployment. But the above data indicate otherwise. Number of jobs in the organized sector is declining after 1997 and the rate of generation of jobs in unorganized sector has declined after 1994-precisely the period when the rate of growth has increased. In other words, faster growth is leading to decline in employment in organized sector and less generation of employment both in unorganized sector. Thus, Chief Minister Mulayam Singh Yadav appears to be more on track in asserting that more growth alone will not solve the problems of unemployment and poverty.

It appears the Prime Minister is aware of the problem but is under the pressure of big companies and Multinational Corporations. He thus proposes such solutions that actually benefit these big companies but create an impression that the government is trying its best to help the poor. While addressing the National Development Council he said that labour reforms are necessary to create more employment. China's success in the manufacturing sector owes itself principally to absence of hard labour laws. Chinese businessmen do not hesitate to employ large number of workers because they do not have to face trade unions and labour inspectors.

Yet unemployment is increasing in that country. In other words, flexible labour laws will help only marginally. Furthermore, the Prime Minister seems to want to reform laws in the private organized sector only. He has constituted the Sixth Pay Commission for government employees to consider an increase in their salaries. The Government servants are drawing average emoluments of Rs 25,000 per month presently. His approach is to further appease government servants while hitting at private sector employees. Charity begins at home hence if the Prime Minister was serious the reform of labour laws should start with government servants.

The second suggestion of the Prime Minister is to start a mission to upgrade the skills of the workers. The argument is that better skills will lead to lower cost of production and help India become the manufacturing hub of the world. Higher skills may help workers get higher wages as well. But the experience so far does not provide much encouragement. The wages of skilled workers do not rise much. For example, a tractor driver gets about Rs 100-150 per day while the harwaha looking after bullocks get about Rs 125 per day. Higher skills do not lead to higher wages because supply of tractor drivers is much. Higher skills may even lead to fewer jobs. One tractor driver can do the work of 10 harwaha. Skill development is necessary but not sufficient to bring relief to the workers.

It is necessary for the Prime Minister to implement policies that lead to more generation of demand for workers. For example, the imposition of heavy tax on power looms will revive the handloom sector and provide jobs to millions. But such policies would hit at the interests of big textile mills.

Thus the Prime Minister talks of only such policies which are certain to provide benefits to big companies like reform of labour laws and improvement of skills of workers. But he does not speak of policies required to generate demand for labour since they hit at the interest of big companies. The Prime Minister only wants to create an impression that he is concerned about the welfare of the poor while he is actually promoting the interests of big companies.

President Musharraf and Kashmir dispute

By Swami Raj Sharma

Now a days the print and electronic media is buzzing with the four point formula put forth by President Musharraf to solve the J&K dispute. Before deliberating on this formula in detail, it is worthwhile to mention that both India and Pakistan have been declaring to make the border between the two parts of the State irrelevant as much as possible to ensure easy travel and trade between the two sides of the State. One very important condition precedent to implement this important component of the new approach is being ignored or missed by both the parties. Border between the two parts cannot be made irrelevant unless the border between the two parts is properly delineated and made permanent. The present LoC is not acceptable to Pak so a revised and fresh LoC with minor adjustments here and there has to be worked out. Without a permanent recognised border any attempt to make the border irrelevant is to talk of Hamlet without the Prince of Denmark. This is the first and foremost step needed to resolve the dispute. This will provide a stable foundation to move further in the matter. Recognised permanent border after minor adjustments if necessary would stop border violations, infiltration of militants and reduce tension and skirmeshes and dislocation of border population every now and then. This issue must be addressed first followed by appropriate measures to make it as soft as possible for enabling easy travel and trade. Border in any case cannot be made irrelevant unless it is made acceptance to both the parties through appropriate adjustment. It will help in ensuring demilitarisation of forces in the interior areas leaving the law and order duty to local police. Infiltration of militants and demand for demilitarisation cannot go together. Coming to the issue of self-rule, this concept cannot be entertained to create a state within a state. Both Nations should recognise this reality. In fact Musharraf has ruled out the grant of independence to J&K. Self-Rule in the form of sub-regional Assemblies (three regions in the Indian part and two regions in the Pakistan part) with a specific list of legislative powers with appropriate Regional Autonomous Administrative Councils to administer the selective developmental Departments with State Cabinet and State Legislature at the State level with a State list for legislation and State Cadre Departments for direct administrative charge would be a proper Constitutional arrangement to do away with inter-regional conflicts and ensure development of each region according to its needs, aspirations and cultural entity. Regional Assemblies and Regional Councils will resolve subregional conflicts and tensions and meet the aspirations of local people. The example of Leh and Kargil Autonomous Councils is a living example for others to emulate. Coming to the last suggestion of creating joint control mechanism by the two countries to oversee and ensure the implementation of the new arrangement worked out by the two countries to remove all the irritants from time to time, the sovereignity of the two states in their respective areas especially in the field of defence, foreign affairs, communications and currency should not be tinkered with. Secession and sedition in all overt and covert forms should be put down with a heavy hand, but full and transparent democratic rights should be guaranteed to every citizen of the State in each sub-region by the two countries. A Joint Committee consisting of representatives of both the countries may be constituted to oversee the functioning of new arrangement arrived at by the two countries and recommend remedial measures to the two Governments for appropriate action. Second track diplomacy needs to be sensitised and used in the matter first followed by a clinching dialogue for final settlement by the two Nations. The flexibility shown by Musharraf is a praise worthy step.

There is no point in doubting his intentions and sincerity. India must reciprocate with a positive response. Our Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has welcomed the initiative taken by President Musharraf. The negotiation path would be tardy and tortous, but given the proper wish and will to solve the problem on the part of both the nations enduring solution will emerge sooner or later. The issue merits sincere persuit by both the sides and create a new chapter of mutual relations hip between them.

India's unstable environs

By Gurmeet Kanwal

India's regional security environment continues to remain unstable. Marked by the collusive nuclear weapons-cum-missile development programme of China, North Korea and Pakistan, the strident march of Islamist fundamentalism, the diabolical nexus between narcotics trafficking and terrorism, the proliferation of small arms, the uncertainty inherent in the rule of despotic regimes and a host of other vitiating factors, regional instability remains a cause for serious concern.

The year 2006 was marked by the unexpected resurgence of the Taliban in Afghanistan and Pakistan's unsuccessful ongoing struggle against the remnants of the Al Qaeda and the Taliban, particularly in the North West Frontier Province (NWFP). The fissiparous tendencies emerging in Balochistan and Pakhtoonkhwa and the rise of Jihadi Islam, just when Pakistan's gradual slide towards becoming a 'failed state' was at last being arrested and limited economic gains had accrued in the last two to three years, do not augur well for that country's future.

Sri Lanka's continued involvement in the vicious Tamil insurgency and its inability to find a lasting solution to the conflict in the northeast is slowing down its economic recovery. The uneasy truce between Government forces and the LTTE appears to have broken down irretrievably and incidents of violence are growing by the day. Bangladesh is gradually but perceptibly emerging as the new hub of Islamist fundamentalist terrorism. Its struggle for economic upliftment to bare subsistence levels is being hampered by deeply divisive politics and poor governance.

Nepal's fledgling democracy, shaky at the best of times, had been further undermined by a palace coup led by the King himself on February 1, 2005. A spontaneous people's revolution in April 2006 restored Parliament and led to a rapprochement with the Maoist leaders and an agreement on a new Constitution. Simmering discontent and low-key opposition to China's repressive regime continue in Tibet. The military regime in power in Myanmar still shows no signs of acknowledging the people's nascent movement for democracy.

Partly because Pakistan is becoming rather hot for international terrorist groups to use as a base and partly because the Government of Bangladesh has helplessly stood by and ignored a growing Islamist influence, if not supported and abetted by it actively, Bangladesh is quickly singing deeper and deeper into the morass of fundamentalist Islamist terrorism. It has also been willy-nilly providing safe havens to Indian terrorist groups despite India's exhortations to desist from such unneighbourly acts.

There has been an almost unending influx of migrants from Bangladesh into India's northeastern states over several decades. This has upset the demographic balance and led to tensions in the region. Clashes between India's Border Security Force (BSF) and the Bangladesh Rifles (BDR) has been fairly frequent. In case the situation inside Bangladesh spins out of control and refugees once again pour into India, military intervention may again need to be considered.

The continuing civil strife in Afghanistan despite Western intervention poses perhaps the most serious threat to peace and stability in the Southern Asian region. When the al Qaeda struck in the US on September 11,2001, the Pakistan supported and equipped Taliban militia had consolidated its hold over large parts of Afghan territory, Ahmed Shah Masood's Pushtun fighters were holding out in the Panjshir Valley though Masood had been assassinated, Abdul Rashid Dostum's Northern Alliance, propped up by tacit support from Uzebkistan, Tajikistan and Kazakhstan and by the physical presence of approximately 20,000 Russian troops north of Afghanistan's border, could have still influenced the final miliary outcome in Afghanistan and Iran had not withdrawn all the troops that if had massed along its eastern border with Afghanistan in 1998-99.

The most urgent international issue in Afghanistan prior to September 11, 2001 was Pakistan's continued, visibly overt military support to the Taliban militia and the unprecedented covert support that it was providing to prop up and perpetuate a fundamentalist and fanatical Islamist regime. If the Taliban experiment had been allowed to succeed, the virulence of Islamist fundamentalism would have soon reverberated all over the Southern Asian region, including the Central Asian Republics (CARs). Though the cruel and repressive Taliban military was disbanded and the popularly elected Karzai regime installed in power, the US and its coalition forces are still only partly in control of the security situation in Afghanistan.

The new regime's writ runs only in Kabul and the surrounding areas. Pakistan is once again suspected to be providing material support to the Taliban and this has emboldened its cadres to launch large-scale frontal attacks on NATO's forces, though with heavy casualties. The campaign for a strong and stable Afghanistan under a truly representative Government has to be fought on all fronts - political, diplomatic, moral and, if necessary, military - by the international community.

The Pakistan army has been deeply hurt by the almost 2,000 casualties that it has suffered in fighting a high-intensity insurgency in the NWFP in its quest to join the global war against terrorism. In September 2006, the Pakistan Government quite unexpectedly signed a "peace accord" with the tribal leaders in Waziristan and agreed to suspend hostilities against them. This has enabled the largely Pushtun "new Taliban" to upgrade the number and intensity of its encounters with NATO forced by launching forays from Waziristan and retreating to Pakistani territory when pursued. The US and NATO countries are naturally upset at this turn of events as Pakistan has evidently gone back on its promise to provide all possible help in the war against terrorism. It is apparent that the year 2007 will be a year of reckoning for Pakistan to deliver or face the consequences.

The conflict situation prevailing around India's borders has led to regional instability and an uncertain security environment in the Southern Asian region - that is neither conducive to unhindered economic development nor contributes to human security. Private investors naturally hesitate to risk launching large-scale projects in an unstable region that has been described as a nuclear flashpoint. India can sit back and watch helplessly from the sidelines as instability creeps up to its borders or it can choose to shape the environment through selective intervention. The latter course will call for some hard policy options and a strong political will as well as political consensus to execute them successfully.

(The author is senior fellow centre of air power studies)