EDITORIAL
Tale
to remember
It should not surprise
anyone that a group of Kashmiri militants has surrendered
to the Army. There should be no astonishment either that
they have revealed how they were shabbily treated in
training camps on the other side of the Line of Control.
Twelve of them who gave up along with their weapons in
Baramulla district on Monday have undergone a similar
harrowing experience. They were told how to handle arms
and ammunition and were sought to be brainwashed in the
name of jihad. Soon, however, they were to realise that
they were being taken for a ride. There was clear
discrimination between them and Pakistani and other
foreign mercenaries. The latter had no sympathy for
ordinary people in the Kashmir region. To the contrary
they would indulge in violence against them and revelled
in carrying out explosions in public places. The Kashmiri
...more
Consider
this
The Central Government
must be aware that there is a demand for reopening the
road between Ladakh and Tibet which is under China's
occupation. There is every reason to believe this. What
is inexplicable, however, is its inability to do the
needful. Plausibly it is handicapped at the moment
because of intricacies involved in the Sino-India
relationship. It may do well to take notice that the
resumption of Nathu La route in Sikkim has had an echo in
the trans-Himalayan territory. Local inhabitants feel as
if they ........more
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Gas
Hydrates - The
fuel of the future
By G V Joshi
As of today,
the world is dependent on oil and coal but these
resources are finite and once they are depleted there has
to be a different source to meet the increasing global
energy needs. According to OPEC, it is expected that the
current world oil and gas resources are likely to last
just another .....more
The
north-east mosaic
By Sanchet Barua
The foremost
feature of the social order of the North-Eastern region
is its plurality. It consists of the hills as well as the
plains and is inhabited by three distinct groups - the
hill tribes, the plains tribes and the non-tribal
population of the plains. All three groups are
heterogeneous. The hill areas alone have more than a
hundred tribes of Mongoloid origin. There are ethnic
groups with their origins among the Burmese, Tibetans,
Kuki-Lushais, Meities, Chin-Kukis, . . .......more
Inflation,
welfarism
and public sector
By M. N. Minocha
In the past
inflation was associated with wars and the extraordinary
influx of gold and silver. It ended with the
disappearance of these specific causes. But inflation
after World War II has been both universal and
persistent. . ....more
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EDITORIAL
Tale to remember
It should not surprise
anyone that a group of Kashmiri militants has surrendered
to the Army. There should be no astonishment either that
they have revealed how they were shabbily treated in
training camps on the other side of the Line of Control.
Twelve of them who gave up along with their weapons in
Baramulla district on Monday have undergone a similar
harrowing experience. They were told how to handle arms
and ammunition and were sought to be brainwashed in the
name of jihad. Soon, however, they were to realise that
they were being taken for a ride. There was clear
discrimination between them and Pakistani and other
foreign mercenaries. The latter had no sympathy for
ordinary people in the Kashmir region. To the contrary
they would indulge in violence against them and revelled
in carrying out explosions in public places. The Kashmiri
militants were thus made to feel as if they were
second-class citizens. To them it was gradually evident
that jihad had no substance at all but was thriving in
certain quarters simply through manipulation and
falsehood. In reality it was an unholy war. According to
them the militant structure is in tact in
"Azad" Kashmir as the occupied territory across
the LoC is known. Invariably the Kashmiri militants were
used as fodder. Whenever there was suspicion of trouble
along the Line or the International Border the men in
charge would ask them to cross cover. This was done not
with the best of intentions but as part of an extremely
cunning ploy. They were pushed into the inferno to test
how well the Indian security forces were prepared. It was
sheer luck if they managed to survive. The involvement of
Pakistan's intelligence agency, Inter-Services
Intelligence (ISI), was too visible in all these
operations. It would plan and execute almost every
tactic.
On the face of it there is
nothing new in all that these militants have disclosed.
Earlier too quite a few of their ilk have narrated the
same shocking story. The truth has finally come out. We
have mentioned in these columns in the past that there is
tension not only between the Kashmiri militants and their
counterparts belonging to other countries. The relations
between them and the natives in "Azad" Kashmir
(the local name of the occupied territory) have too come
under stress. This has happened for a variety of reasons
including failed marriages. There is little common
between them in terms of food, attire, culture and
language. They were lured out of their captivating homes
by a dream that they found did not exist at all. They
could live honourably only on one condition. It was that
they completely swallowed Pakistan's pill howsoever
bitter it might be. One can't immediately ascertain the
militants' leak about young men of the State being
suffocated to death in frustrating environment in
"Azad" Kashmir. Such a disaster can't be
totally ruled out, however. There are confirmed instances
of serious harassment.
So far as the existence of
terrorism infrastructure is concerned there is no doubt
about this. Actually in his first message to new
"Azad" Kashmir "Prime Minister"
Sardar Attique Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf has
reiterated his commitment to provide full sport to
"ongoing freedom struggle." It is good that our
youth have seen through these machinations.
Consider this
The Central Government
must be aware that there is a demand for reopening the
road between Ladakh and Tibet which is under China's
occupation. There is every reason to believe this. What
is inexplicable, however, is its inability to do the
needful. Plausibly it is handicapped at the moment
because of intricacies involved in the Sino-India
relationship. It may do well to take notice that the
resumption of Nathu La route in Sikkim has had an echo in
the trans-Himalayan territory. Local inhabitants feel as
if they are being deprived of their due. For its part,
the State Government is supportive of recommencement of
the passage.. In fact, it has already made a
recommendation to the effect to the Centre. The Ladakh
Autonomous Hill Development Council (LAHDC-Leh) has
always been longing for business links with the Tibetan
territory for mutual economic development. The people at
Demchok know how important it is for them to get
connected. The charming village in the south-east of Leh
district is the first settlement along the Indus as the
river enters this country from Tibet. Its status will go
up in every sense once the trade resumes between two
giant neighbours. It is more than 300 kilometres away
from the district headquarters of Leh. Nobody denies that
informally a sort of barter system does exist. This is
the hangover of the period when the movement between Leh
and Tibet was easy. The two places have been spiritually
related for centuries and continue to be so even today.
One should not be surprised if one comes across Chinese
goods in Leh's market. In current parlance these can but
only be called smuggled articles. There is an interesting
observation made about this occurrence by an ex-officer A
Mohandas Moses who had served as adviser to State
Governor during the peak of militancy. He wrote in an
article: "On this stretch of the border, the
'informal traveller' (a reference to the wild life) did
not bother about protocol or travel documents, and
crossed the frontier virtually at will. In the
market-place in Leh town, the tourist can buy
Chinese-made mountain boots
The happy buyer does not
pause to ask how the Chinese boots got into Leh. They
came, in fact, by the same route that the kyang (wild
asses) took - over the hills and plains of the
Changthang. A thriving barter trade has been going on
since the days of Fa Hien - pashmina wool, yak butter and
salt from Ladakh in barter for pens, porcelain and boots
from the Tibetan side. The trade is, of course,
'informal' as there is no commercial agreement for
international trade along this route. The proposal for
opening a trading post at Demchok on the eastern
extremity of the Leh district, which will also open a
very convenient route for pilgrims to Mansarovar, has
been hanging for over a decade."
Made in the late 1990s the
comment holds good presently. Since the reasons are
historic nobody seems to be unduly worried. However, it
can't be overlooked that what looks harmless today may
turn serious in the form of infiltration tomorrow. The
Ladakh-Tibet path will also make the pilgrimage to
Kailash-Mansarovar comfortable. It is widely admitted.
India and China should consider making this proposition
viable pending a final solution of vexed border issues.
Gas Hydrates
- The fuel of the future
By G V
Joshi
As of today, the
world is dependent on oil and
coal but these resources are
finite and once they are depleted
there has to be a different
source to meet the increasing
global energy needs.
According to OPEC,
it is expected that the current
world oil and gas resources are
likely to last just another 80
years but if new discoveries are
made they should stretch in the
next century. Supplies of coal
are more abundant than oil and
are thought to exist well into
the next century.
What would be the
next energy source once the
fossil fuels run out? Gas
hydrates (GH) are now being
considered as a fuel for the
future. Gas Hydrates or GH are
called Clathrates in Technical
jargon. They are crystalline
solids which look like ice in
which water molecules form a
'cage-like structure' around a
smaller 'guest molecule'.
The guests being
noble gases like helium, neon,
argon, krypton, xenon, and radon
and molecules of methane, ethane,
propane, isobutene, normal
butane, nitrogen, carbon dioxide
and hydrogen sulphide.
Methane is one of
the most abundant materials. The
GH are also called "fire in
ice." If you light a GH
deposit, it will burn like an oil
lantern wick.
French geologists
studied GH as early as 1890, but
it wasn't until 1981 that the
underwater drilling vessel Glomar
Challenger was able to retrieve a
3-foot-long GH core off the coast
of Guatemala.
According to India's
Union Minister for Petroleum and
Natural Gas, Murli Deora. The
total reserves of offshore gas
hydrates in India was 1,894
trillion cubic metres, 1,900
times the country's current gas
reserves.
Even if India were
able to tap one per cent of the
estimated gas hydrate reserves,
the country would be able to meet
the energy requirement for the
coming decades.
With this in view,
seismic data has been acquired on
the Indian continental margin,
and current plans calls for
drilling and coring dedicated gas
hydrate wells.
In addition, gas
hydrates were discovered during
drilling for conventional oil and
gas resources in the Krishna
-Godavari Basin along the eastern
coast of India.
The Indian
Government has hired the
scientific research drill chip
'Joides Resolution', to explore
deep-sea gas hydrate reserves
along the coast of India. The
ship sailed from Mumbai and
commenced drilling, coring, and
logging operations at several
locations in the Indian Ocean in
early May 2006.
The drill ship will
explore prospective gas hydrate
fields along the western coast in
Konkan, the Krishna Godavari
basin, Mahanadi and areas around
the Andaman seas. The drilling
and exploration will be carried
out by Indian and international
scientists, with Dr Timothy S.
Collett, Research Geologist of
the US Geological Survey, serving
as the co-chief scientist of the
exploration team. The exploration
for Gas hydrates would be
conducted under India's National
Gas Hydrate Program (NGPH) of the
Directorate General of
Hydrocarbons.
Gas hydrates were
discovered in 1810 by Sir
Humphrey Davy, and were
considered to be laboratory
curiosity.
In the 1930s gas
hydrate formation turned out to
be a major problem, clogging
pipelines during transportation
of gas under cold conditions. In
nature, one cubic meter of GH
turns out to contain up to 164-m3
of methane.
As a result, today,
GH has received attention as a
possible energy source.
The methane in GH
hydrates is mainly generated by
bacterial degradation of organic
matter in low oxygen
environments. GH occurs wherever
methane and water are available.
Their stability is
limited by temperature and
pressure: GH are stable at very
low temperatures and/or high
pressures. Because of the
requirements of pressure and
temperature, and because of
requirement of relatively large
amounts of organic matter of
generation of methane, areas
containing GH are mainly
restricted to two regions: high
latitudes and along the
continental margins in the
oceans.
In the oceans, GH
are found on the outer
continental margins, where the
supply of organic material is
high enough to generate enough
methane, and water temperatures
are close to freezing.
The extent of
worldwide gas hydrate occurrences
in the oceans has been evaluated
using seismic exploration methods
used currently in exploration of
oil and gas. The oceanic
reservoir has been estimated to
be about 10,000 to 11,000
Gigatonnes of GH.
In the last few
years, many Governments including
India have becomes very
interested in exploring the
possibilities of using GH as a
fuel.
The realization that
huge reservoirs of methane
hydrates occur on the ocean floor
has led to exploration by
oil-poor countries like ours.
However, these efforts are in
their preliminary stages. The
methane in GH might be recovered
through injection of hot water or
depressurization, but the process
might turn out to be technically
difficult and thus process might
turn out to be technically
difficult and thus expensive.
Depressurization is
considered to be the most
economically promising method for
the production of natural gas
from GH.
The Messoyakha gas
field in northern Russia is
commonly used as an example of a
hydrocarbon accumulation by which
gas has been produced from
hydrates by simple reservoir
depressurization.
The field was
developed for conventional gas,
and scientists have long thought
that the sustained gas production
was due to the contribution of
gas from GH into an underlying
layer.
The production
history of the Messoyakha field
possibly demonstrates that gas
hydrates are an immediately
producible source of natural gas
and that production can be
started and maintained by
"conventional" methods.
Past experience with
the development of other
unconventional energy resources
clearly shows that the evolution
of gas hydrates into a producible
source of energy will require a
significant and sustained
research and development effort.
Many other countries
are also interested in the energy
resource potential of gas
hydrates. USA, Japan, Canada, and
others have established large gas
hydrate research and development
projects, while China, Korea,
Norway, Mexico and others are
investigating the viability of
forming government - sponsored GH
research projects. Despite all
the work going on along the globe
the actual timing for expected
commercial production of hydrates
remains uncertain. Some
researchers speculate that
blowouts of marine GH in the
geologic past may have released
enough methane, a potent
greenhouse gas, to drive up
global temperatures.
Some researchers
feel that when GH break away from
steep slopes on the seafloor,
they could trigger massive
seafloor avalanches and even
tsunamis.
PTI Feature
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The
north-east mosaic
By
Sanchet Barua
The
foremost feature of the
social order of the
North-Eastern region is
its plurality. It
consists of the hills as
well as the plains and is
inhabited by three
distinct groups - the
hill tribes, the plains
tribes and the non-tribal
population of the plains.
All three groups are
heterogeneous. The hill
areas alone have more
than a hundred tribes of
Mongoloid origin. There
are ethnic groups with
their origins among the
Burmese, Tibetans,
Kuki-Lushais, Meities,
Chin-Kukis, Shan-Tais and
the Aryans.
Each
tribal group has its own
languages and culture and
more than 400 dialects
are spoken. All the
tribes, sub-tribes and
other ethnic groups have
a profound distrust and
antipathy towards
outsiders mainly because
they fear exploitation.
While a majority of those
living in the plains are
Hindus and Muslims, a
very large percentage of
the tribals in Mizoram,
Nagaland and Meghalaya
are Christians. In
Manipur also, tribal
communities in the hill
districts have adopted
Christianity as their
religion and the Roman
script for their
languages. In addition,
there are Buddhists as
well as Animists. The
plains tribals have links
with the hill tribes but
these have weakened over
the years, they have,
however, forged links
with neighbours in the
plains in terms of
language and economic
activities.
The
region is surrounded by
China in the North-East
and Myanmar in the east
and Bangladesh to the
further South. Geography
has always played
especially important role
in the economy, politics
and administration of the
region. The chief
geographical features
are: (i) the hills; (ii)
the Brahmaputra valley;
(iii) the Barak and the
Imphal valley.
The
diverse ethnic origins of
the people naturally led
to the growth of
centrifugal forces
stemming directly out of
various ways of living,
different forms of
worship and separate
dialects. Nonetheless,
over the years emerged
cultural links which
greatly contributed to
social cohesion. In the
years that followed, the
policies pursued by the
British had both positive
and negative effects on
the process of
integration. The
establishment of
administrative
headquarters at Shillong
in 1874, helped in the
socialisation process
between the plains and
hill peoples.
Similarly,
the modernisation that
began with the
construction of railway
lines and roads, the
setting up of schools,
colleges, universities,
printing presses,
hospitals and
dispensaries and the
beginning of political
institutions, with the
advent of the Legislative
Assembly, political
parties and association
encouraged people in the
region to view themselves
as part of the country
and to know more about
its cultural heritage,
tradition and values,
leading to the growth of
a sense continues and an
undercurrent of
sub-nationalism also
follows in the region.
Pandit
Nehru used to say that he
would hate to come in the
way of tribal customs
when many of them were of
a democratic nature. He
did not want the tribals
to feel that anything was
being imposed upon them
without their consent. He
sincerely felt that they
must grow according to
their own genius.
But
neither the most
difficult terrain nor the
inaccessibility of this
region could prevent the
clarion call of Mahatma
Gandhi, Pandit Nehru and
Netaji Subhas Chandra
Bose from reaching the
hills, dales and hamlets
of this isolated region.
Because of the strong
patriotic and nationalist
leadership of Assam in
those critically years,
the design of the
imperialist schemers
could not materialise,
although a powerful
section of Naga
leadership was fighting
for independence under
late A.Z. Phizo. The
various tribal groups
were also keen on being
completely freed from all
manner of administrative
control exercised over
them by Assam.
Constant
hostility from various
ethnic groups posed real
and serious challenges to
the peace and stability
of this region and to the
integrity of the country.
On the one hand, the
emergence of Maoism in
China provided the
militant young men and
women content and a
philosophy for launching
armed people's movements.
On the other, various
ethnic groups had their
aspirations too, as they
could see a ray of hope
after centuries of
neglect, when India
became free from
imperialist domination.
They wanted to retain and
safeguard their
identities.
Through
decades of strife, and
patient dialogue and
discussions, at times
appearing to be somewhat
frustrating, the
North-Eastern region has
blossomed forth into
seven beautiful flowers,
each retaining its
separate identity and
richness.
There
are some ethnic groups in
this region, which still
genuinely apprehend that
they are being rapidly
absorbed by other
communities and they are
being deprived of their
legitimate shares from
the gains of various
development programmes
and in the administration
of their areas. They
genuinely feel that they
are lagging behind in the
field of economic
progress and development.
The
Bodos feel that they are
being overshadowed and
administered by others.
The people in Karbi
Anglong and Haflong and
the people living in the
hill areas of Manipur,
Mizoram and Tripura and
in other isolated areas
in the region nurture the
same feeling.
A
large section of people
in the Brahmaputra valley
of Assam genuinely feel
that systematic and
planned infiltration of
people from a
neighbouring country in
large number, even after
Partition, is upsetting
the original demographic
structure of the State.
They also feel that in
the utilisation of their
natural resources, they
must get their due share
and benefit.
Let
us take the recent
developments in Assam as
a case for intense study
and analysis. After a
spell of violent
agitations led by the
students, the democratic
process re-established
itself again in the
State.
But
why has insurgency come
to the fore? In the
process of democratic
growth of our polity,
there are bound to be
various stages of
development. We have to
overcome many internal
contradictions when the
society passes through
various stages of
transition. In the
context of economic and
political turmoil in this
very sensitive border
region, I think it is
relevant to quote here
the following
observations from the
Report of the Tata
Consultancy Services. The
report says: "It is
estimated that by the
turn of the century,
nearly two-third of the
North-East population
would be less than
34-years of age, which
indicates that the
predominantly young
society is highly likely
to chalk out a new
course, influenced by its
rapidly increasing
exposure to the external
world. With the steady
influx of technology, and
with the growing exposure
to the external world,
the North-East society is
going to manage that
process of change and to
provide a proper
direction so that the
change becomes a
well-guided and orderly
transition rather than a
sudden discontinuity.
It
must also be borne in or
mind that this region in
general is a distinct
geographical entity and
each of the seven States
comprising the region has
also very distinct and
separate identities and
traditions. Therefore, no
set or any standard
approach will hold good
for all the seven States
equally or in some
degree.
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Inflation,
welfarism and public sector
By M. N.
Minocha
In the past inflation was
associated with wars and the
extraordinary influx of gold and silver.
It ended with the disappearance of these
specific causes. But inflation after
World War II has been both universal and
persistent. It must, therefore, have a
universal and persistent cause.
The monetarist school led by
Professor Milton Friedman regards
excessive growth of money supply per unit
of output as the villain of the piece.
But this interpretation explains only the
symptom, not the cause of inflation.
Money does not fall from the sky. It is
the product of the economic and political
system. The monetarist school ignores
this basic aspect of the problem. If one
compares the world economy before and
after World War II, two important facts
come to light. These are the universal
acceptance of the need for and vigorous
promotion of economic growth and social
welfare and a sharp prise in the
proportion of the national income spent
by the state and the concomitant growth
of the public sector.
Growth is not a new
phenomenon. But growth along with social
welfare as an overriding policy goal in
almost all countries of the world after
World War II undoubtedly is. The world
economy has also become much more
integrated as result of the rapidly
growing international trade, travel,
technical and economic cooperation.
As a result of the universal
acceptance and implementation of the
policy of rapid economic growth with
social justice, the public sector has
grown rapidly in all capitalist
economies. It ranges from one-quarter to
more than one-half of the national income
in most countries. The disposal of such a
huge proportion of the national income by
the state has in turn caused an enormous
growth of the services sector.
Though the services sector
has expanded considerably everywhere, the
growth of productivity in it is
negligible in comparison with the other
sectors because the operation of
productivity-raising actors, such as
capital formation, innovation and
competition, is much weaker in it. But
this differential in the growth of
productivity is accompanied by an almost
uniform increase of wages and salaries in
all sectors of the economy. Increase of
wages and salaries in the fast
productivity-growing sectors are, with or
without any significant time-lag, secured
by the low-productivity services sector.
This inevitably raises costs and
therefore prices of all sorts of
services.
The rapid growth of the
services sector generates demands for
funds to finance its expansion. Since the
growth of government revenue on the basic
of the usual taxes suffers from severe
administrative and legislative
constraints in a democratic set-up, it
rises at a lower rate than public
expenditure. This compels the government
to borrow continuously from the central
bank which has become the major source of
excessive money supply in all capitalist
countries.
Since public goods and
services constitute an important
component of household budgets in an
advanced economy, their rising prices
contribute significantly towards raising
the cost of living which, in turn,
generates a wage and salary push
throughout the economy and thus leads to
inflation. Even if there is no budget
deficit, the very fact of a huge public
sector having a large services component
is enough to generate inflation of the
cost-push variety. The classification of
labour into productive and non-productive
segments by classical economists has a
great relevance to inflation.
In the less developed
countries agriculture is the predominant
sector in terms of the percentage of the
working population engaged in it and its
contribution to the national product.
Growth without inflation requires, among
other things, a rise in the productivity
of agriculture which is commensurate with
the growth of the manufacturing and the
services sectors. Since the latter two
are expanding at a much higher rate than
the former, it generates an acute
disequilibrium in the market for
agricultural products. The result is
rapid rise in the prices of agricultural
products which generates a cost-push in
the industrial sector. In short, it is
the lack of balance between the growth of
agricultural and non-agricultural sectors
that generates inflationary pressure in
the less developed nations.
Another phenomenon is more
or less common to developed and
developing economies - wages and prices
in the industrial and the services
sectors do not move downwards: they only
move upwards. A shift of demand in favour
of one industry and adverse to another
does not result in the fall of prices in
the latter, while prices in the former
rise. Such demand shifts are concomitant
features of economic growth.
J. R. Hicks, the British
Noble prize-winner, has advanced an
explanation for inflation based on the
rapid and balanced growth of the world
economy since 1945. According to him,
there is a maximum feasible growth
without inflation which a country can
achieve. The limits of such
non-inflationary growth are determined by
the rate of growth of food and their
essential industrial raw materials.
The advanced capitalist
nations have been growing beyond this
level. But before 1971 inflation in them
was of a creeping variety, partly because
the economically fast-growing nations
amongst them provided credit
accommodation to those whose economy grew
more slowly and partly because of the
overall declining trend in the world
prices of primary products. After 1971,
when both these features disappeared,
inflation and high unemployment have both
accelerated.
The unprecedented growth of
the world economy has put tremendous
pressure on the food and raw material
resources of the world. There is an
undoubtedly considerable scope for the
expansion of their output even on the
basis of known technology; however, in
the absence of any
"epoch-making" innovation in
the fields of energy and food production,
strains of an even more severe kind are
bound to develop.
Apart from this
technological constraint, there is a
persistent demand on the part of primary
products exporters to raise commodity
prices. If they succeed in forming
cartels similar to that of the
oil-producing countries, the consequences
for the world economy are not difficult
to imagine. Demand-induced inflation is
not difficult to control, but such
cost-push inflation has no other lasting
solution than some 'epoch-making'
innovation in the fields of energy and
food production.
This analysis should not be
interpreted to imply that the only way to
contain inflation is to stop or
decelerate economic growth and leave the
process of income distribution wholly to
market forces. Both these would be highly
retrograde steps. The difficulty has
arisen not so much because of high
economic growth as because of its highly
unbalanced nature.
The remedy, therefore, does
not lie in stopping growth or in reducing
its tempo. It lies in efforts to make
growth more balanced and to bring to
fruition innovations in the fields of
energy and food production. Balanced
growth requires a high degree of social
engineering and control over productive
activity which may not be feasible in a
capitalist economy. But 'epoch-making'
innovations in the production of energy
and food are simply a matter of time. So
there is no reason to be unduly
pessimistic. Taking stock of both the
events, the contemporary world-wide
inflationary situation appears to be a
transitory phase in the historical
evolution of the modern capitalist
economies. Accordingly, monetarism, as
many times before, is also a transitory
phase. INAV
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