EDITORIAL

Tale to remember

It should not surprise anyone that a group of Kashmiri militants has surrendered to the Army. There should be no astonishment either that they have revealed how they were shabbily treated in training camps on the other side of the Line of Control. Twelve of them who gave up along with their weapons in Baramulla district on Monday have undergone a similar harrowing experience. They were told how to handle arms and ammunition and were sought to be brainwashed in the name of jihad. Soon, however, they were to realise that they were being taken for a ride. There was clear discrimination between them and Pakistani and other foreign mercenaries. The latter had no sympathy for ordinary people in the Kashmir region. To the contrary they would indulge in violence against them and revelled in carrying out explosions in public places. The Kashmiri ...more

Consider this

The Central Government must be aware that there is a demand for reopening the road between Ladakh and Tibet which is under China's occupation. There is every reason to believe this. What is inexplicable, however, is its inability to do the needful. Plausibly it is handicapped at the moment because of intricacies involved in the Sino-India relationship. It may do well to take notice that the resumption of Nathu La route in Sikkim has had an echo in the trans-Himalayan territory. Local inhabitants feel as if they ........more

Gas Hydrates - The
fuel of the future

By G V Joshi

As of today, the world is dependent on oil and coal but these resources are finite and once they are depleted there has to be a different source to meet the increasing global energy needs. According to OPEC, it is expected that the current world oil and gas resources are likely to last just another .....more

The north-east mosaic

By Sanchet Barua

The foremost feature of the social order of the North-Eastern region is its plurality. It consists of the hills as well as the plains and is inhabited by three distinct groups - the hill tribes, the plains tribes and the non-tribal population of the plains. All three groups are heterogeneous. The hill areas alone have more than a hundred tribes of Mongoloid origin. There are ethnic groups with their origins among the Burmese, Tibetans, Kuki-Lushais, Meities, Chin-Kukis, . . .......more

Inflation, welfarism
and public sector

By M. N. Minocha

In the past inflation was associated with wars and the extraordinary influx of gold and silver. It ended with the disappearance of these specific causes. But inflation after World War II has been both universal and persistent. . ....more

EDITORIAL

Tale to remember

It should not surprise anyone that a group of Kashmiri militants has surrendered to the Army. There should be no astonishment either that they have revealed how they were shabbily treated in training camps on the other side of the Line of Control. Twelve of them who gave up along with their weapons in Baramulla district on Monday have undergone a similar harrowing experience. They were told how to handle arms and ammunition and were sought to be brainwashed in the name of jihad. Soon, however, they were to realise that they were being taken for a ride. There was clear discrimination between them and Pakistani and other foreign mercenaries. The latter had no sympathy for ordinary people in the Kashmir region. To the contrary they would indulge in violence against them and revelled in carrying out explosions in public places. The Kashmiri militants were thus made to feel as if they were second-class citizens. To them it was gradually evident that jihad had no substance at all but was thriving in certain quarters simply through manipulation and falsehood. In reality it was an unholy war. According to them the militant structure is in tact in "Azad" Kashmir as the occupied territory across the LoC is known. Invariably the Kashmiri militants were used as fodder. Whenever there was suspicion of trouble along the Line or the International Border the men in charge would ask them to cross cover. This was done not with the best of intentions but as part of an extremely cunning ploy. They were pushed into the inferno to test how well the Indian security forces were prepared. It was sheer luck if they managed to survive. The involvement of Pakistan's intelligence agency, Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), was too visible in all these operations. It would plan and execute almost every tactic.

On the face of it there is nothing new in all that these militants have disclosed. Earlier too quite a few of their ilk have narrated the same shocking story. The truth has finally come out. We have mentioned in these columns in the past that there is tension not only between the Kashmiri militants and their counterparts belonging to other countries. The relations between them and the natives in "Azad" Kashmir (the local name of the occupied territory) have too come under stress. This has happened for a variety of reasons including failed marriages. There is little common between them in terms of food, attire, culture and language. They were lured out of their captivating homes by a dream that they found did not exist at all. They could live honourably only on one condition. It was that they completely swallowed Pakistan's pill howsoever bitter it might be. One can't immediately ascertain the militants' leak about young men of the State being suffocated to death in frustrating environment in "Azad" Kashmir. Such a disaster can't be totally ruled out, however. There are confirmed instances of serious harassment.

So far as the existence of terrorism infrastructure is concerned there is no doubt about this. Actually in his first message to new "Azad" Kashmir "Prime Minister" Sardar Attique Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf has reiterated his commitment to provide full sport to "ongoing freedom struggle." It is good that our youth have seen through these machinations.

Consider this

The Central Government must be aware that there is a demand for reopening the road between Ladakh and Tibet which is under China's occupation. There is every reason to believe this. What is inexplicable, however, is its inability to do the needful. Plausibly it is handicapped at the moment because of intricacies involved in the Sino-India relationship. It may do well to take notice that the resumption of Nathu La route in Sikkim has had an echo in the trans-Himalayan territory. Local inhabitants feel as if they are being deprived of their due. For its part, the State Government is supportive of recommencement of the passage.. In fact, it has already made a recommendation to the effect to the Centre. The Ladakh Autonomous Hill Development Council (LAHDC-Leh) has always been longing for business links with the Tibetan territory for mutual economic development. The people at Demchok know how important it is for them to get connected. The charming village in the south-east of Leh district is the first settlement along the Indus as the river enters this country from Tibet. Its status will go up in every sense once the trade resumes between two giant neighbours. It is more than 300 kilometres away from the district headquarters of Leh. Nobody denies that informally a sort of barter system does exist. This is the hangover of the period when the movement between Leh and Tibet was easy. The two places have been spiritually related for centuries and continue to be so even today. One should not be surprised if one comes across Chinese goods in Leh's market. In current parlance these can but only be called smuggled articles. There is an interesting observation made about this occurrence by an ex-officer A Mohandas Moses who had served as adviser to State Governor during the peak of militancy. He wrote in an article: "On this stretch of the border, the 'informal traveller' (a reference to the wild life) did not bother about protocol or travel documents, and crossed the frontier virtually at will. In the market-place in Leh town, the tourist can buy Chinese-made mountain boots…The happy buyer does not pause to ask how the Chinese boots got into Leh. They came, in fact, by the same route that the kyang (wild asses) took - over the hills and plains of the Changthang. A thriving barter trade has been going on since the days of Fa Hien - pashmina wool, yak butter and salt from Ladakh in barter for pens, porcelain and boots from the Tibetan side. The trade is, of course, 'informal' as there is no commercial agreement for international trade along this route. The proposal for opening a trading post at Demchok on the eastern extremity of the Leh district, which will also open a very convenient route for pilgrims to Mansarovar, has been hanging for over a decade."

Made in the late 1990s the comment holds good presently. Since the reasons are historic nobody seems to be unduly worried. However, it can't be overlooked that what looks harmless today may turn serious in the form of infiltration tomorrow. The Ladakh-Tibet path will also make the pilgrimage to Kailash-Mansarovar comfortable. It is widely admitted. India and China should consider making this proposition viable pending a final solution of vexed border issues.

Gas Hydrates - The fuel of the future

By G V Joshi

As of today, the world is dependent on oil and coal but these resources are finite and once they are depleted there has to be a different source to meet the increasing global energy needs.

According to OPEC, it is expected that the current world oil and gas resources are likely to last just another 80 years but if new discoveries are made they should stretch in the next century. Supplies of coal are more abundant than oil and are thought to exist well into the next century.

What would be the next energy source once the fossil fuels run out? Gas hydrates (GH) are now being considered as a fuel for the future. Gas Hydrates or GH are called Clathrates in Technical jargon. They are crystalline solids which look like ice in which water molecules form a 'cage-like structure' around a smaller 'guest molecule'.

The guests being noble gases like helium, neon, argon, krypton, xenon, and radon and molecules of methane, ethane, propane, isobutene, normal butane, nitrogen, carbon dioxide and hydrogen sulphide.

Methane is one of the most abundant materials. The GH are also called "fire in ice." If you light a GH deposit, it will burn like an oil lantern wick.

French geologists studied GH as early as 1890, but it wasn't until 1981 that the underwater drilling vessel Glomar Challenger was able to retrieve a 3-foot-long GH core off the coast of Guatemala.

According to India's Union Minister for Petroleum and Natural Gas, Murli Deora. The total reserves of offshore gas hydrates in India was 1,894 trillion cubic metres, 1,900 times the country's current gas reserves.

Even if India were able to tap one per cent of the estimated gas hydrate reserves, the country would be able to meet the energy requirement for the coming decades.

With this in view, seismic data has been acquired on the Indian continental margin, and current plans calls for drilling and coring dedicated gas hydrate wells.

In addition, gas hydrates were discovered during drilling for conventional oil and gas resources in the Krishna -Godavari Basin along the eastern coast of India.

The Indian Government has hired the scientific research drill chip 'Joides Resolution', to explore deep-sea gas hydrate reserves along the coast of India. The ship sailed from Mumbai and commenced drilling, coring, and logging operations at several locations in the Indian Ocean in early May 2006.

The drill ship will explore prospective gas hydrate fields along the western coast in Konkan, the Krishna Godavari basin, Mahanadi and areas around the Andaman seas. The drilling and exploration will be carried out by Indian and international scientists, with Dr Timothy S. Collett, Research Geologist of the US Geological Survey, serving as the co-chief scientist of the exploration team. The exploration for Gas hydrates would be conducted under India's National Gas Hydrate Program (NGPH) of the Directorate General of Hydrocarbons.

Gas hydrates were discovered in 1810 by Sir Humphrey Davy, and were considered to be laboratory curiosity.

In the 1930s gas hydrate formation turned out to be a major problem, clogging pipelines during transportation of gas under cold conditions. In nature, one cubic meter of GH turns out to contain up to 164-m3 of methane.

As a result, today, GH has received attention as a possible energy source.

The methane in GH hydrates is mainly generated by bacterial degradation of organic matter in low oxygen environments. GH occurs wherever methane and water are available.

Their stability is limited by temperature and pressure: GH are stable at very low temperatures and/or high pressures. Because of the requirements of pressure and temperature, and because of requirement of relatively large amounts of organic matter of generation of methane, areas containing GH are mainly restricted to two regions: high latitudes and along the continental margins in the oceans.

In the oceans, GH are found on the outer continental margins, where the supply of organic material is high enough to generate enough methane, and water temperatures are close to freezing.

The extent of worldwide gas hydrate occurrences in the oceans has been evaluated using seismic exploration methods used currently in exploration of oil and gas. The oceanic reservoir has been estimated to be about 10,000 to 11,000 Gigatonnes of GH.

In the last few years, many Governments including India have becomes very interested in exploring the possibilities of using GH as a fuel.

The realization that huge reservoirs of methane hydrates occur on the ocean floor has led to exploration by oil-poor countries like ours. However, these efforts are in their preliminary stages. The methane in GH might be recovered through injection of hot water or depressurization, but the process might turn out to be technically difficult and thus process might turn out to be technically difficult and thus expensive.

Depressurization is considered to be the most economically promising method for the production of natural gas from GH.

The Messoyakha gas field in northern Russia is commonly used as an example of a hydrocarbon accumulation by which gas has been produced from hydrates by simple reservoir depressurization.

The field was developed for conventional gas, and scientists have long thought that the sustained gas production was due to the contribution of gas from GH into an underlying layer.

The production history of the Messoyakha field possibly demonstrates that gas hydrates are an immediately producible source of natural gas and that production can be started and maintained by "conventional" methods.

Past experience with the development of other unconventional energy resources clearly shows that the evolution of gas hydrates into a producible source of energy will require a significant and sustained research and development effort.

Many other countries are also interested in the energy resource potential of gas hydrates. USA, Japan, Canada, and others have established large gas hydrate research and development projects, while China, Korea, Norway, Mexico and others are investigating the viability of forming government - sponsored GH research projects. Despite all the work going on along the globe the actual timing for expected commercial production of hydrates remains uncertain. Some researchers speculate that blowouts of marine GH in the geologic past may have released enough methane, a potent greenhouse gas, to drive up global temperatures.

Some researchers feel that when GH break away from steep slopes on the seafloor, they could trigger massive seafloor avalanches and even tsunamis.

PTI Feature

The north-east mosaic

By Sanchet Barua

The foremost feature of the social order of the North-Eastern region is its plurality. It consists of the hills as well as the plains and is inhabited by three distinct groups - the hill tribes, the plains tribes and the non-tribal population of the plains. All three groups are heterogeneous. The hill areas alone have more than a hundred tribes of Mongoloid origin. There are ethnic groups with their origins among the Burmese, Tibetans, Kuki-Lushais, Meities, Chin-Kukis, Shan-Tais and the Aryans.

Each tribal group has its own languages and culture and more than 400 dialects are spoken. All the tribes, sub-tribes and other ethnic groups have a profound distrust and antipathy towards outsiders mainly because they fear exploitation. While a majority of those living in the plains are Hindus and Muslims, a very large percentage of the tribals in Mizoram, Nagaland and Meghalaya are Christians. In Manipur also, tribal communities in the hill districts have adopted Christianity as their religion and the Roman script for their languages. In addition, there are Buddhists as well as Animists. The plains tribals have links with the hill tribes but these have weakened over the years, they have, however, forged links with neighbours in the plains in terms of language and economic activities.

The region is surrounded by China in the North-East and Myanmar in the east and Bangladesh to the further South. Geography has always played especially important role in the economy, politics and administration of the region. The chief geographical features are: (i) the hills; (ii) the Brahmaputra valley; (iii) the Barak and the Imphal valley.

The diverse ethnic origins of the people naturally led to the growth of centrifugal forces stemming directly out of various ways of living, different forms of worship and separate dialects. Nonetheless, over the years emerged cultural links which greatly contributed to social cohesion. In the years that followed, the policies pursued by the British had both positive and negative effects on the process of integration. The establishment of administrative headquarters at Shillong in 1874, helped in the socialisation process between the plains and hill peoples.

Similarly, the modernisation that began with the construction of railway lines and roads, the setting up of schools, colleges, universities, printing presses, hospitals and dispensaries and the beginning of political institutions, with the advent of the Legislative Assembly, political parties and association encouraged people in the region to view themselves as part of the country and to know more about its cultural heritage, tradition and values, leading to the growth of a sense continues and an undercurrent of sub-nationalism also follows in the region.

Pandit Nehru used to say that he would hate to come in the way of tribal customs when many of them were of a democratic nature. He did not want the tribals to feel that anything was being imposed upon them without their consent. He sincerely felt that they must grow according to their own genius.

But neither the most difficult terrain nor the inaccessibility of this region could prevent the clarion call of Mahatma Gandhi, Pandit Nehru and Netaji Subhas Chandra Bose from reaching the hills, dales and hamlets of this isolated region. Because of the strong patriotic and nationalist leadership of Assam in those critically years, the design of the imperialist schemers could not materialise, although a powerful section of Naga leadership was fighting for independence under late A.Z. Phizo. The various tribal groups were also keen on being completely freed from all manner of administrative control exercised over them by Assam.

Constant hostility from various ethnic groups posed real and serious challenges to the peace and stability of this region and to the integrity of the country. On the one hand, the emergence of Maoism in China provided the militant young men and women content and a philosophy for launching armed people's movements. On the other, various ethnic groups had their aspirations too, as they could see a ray of hope after centuries of neglect, when India became free from imperialist domination. They wanted to retain and safeguard their identities.

Through decades of strife, and patient dialogue and discussions, at times appearing to be somewhat frustrating, the North-Eastern region has blossomed forth into seven beautiful flowers, each retaining its separate identity and richness.

There are some ethnic groups in this region, which still genuinely apprehend that they are being rapidly absorbed by other communities and they are being deprived of their legitimate shares from the gains of various development programmes and in the administration of their areas. They genuinely feel that they are lagging behind in the field of economic progress and development.

The Bodos feel that they are being overshadowed and administered by others. The people in Karbi Anglong and Haflong and the people living in the hill areas of Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura and in other isolated areas in the region nurture the same feeling.

A large section of people in the Brahmaputra valley of Assam genuinely feel that systematic and planned infiltration of people from a neighbouring country in large number, even after Partition, is upsetting the original demographic structure of the State. They also feel that in the utilisation of their natural resources, they must get their due share and benefit.

Let us take the recent developments in Assam as a case for intense study and analysis. After a spell of violent agitations led by the students, the democratic process re-established itself again in the State.

But why has insurgency come to the fore? In the process of democratic growth of our polity, there are bound to be various stages of development. We have to overcome many internal contradictions when the society passes through various stages of transition. In the context of economic and political turmoil in this very sensitive border region, I think it is relevant to quote here the following observations from the Report of the Tata Consultancy Services. The report says: "It is estimated that by the turn of the century, nearly two-third of the North-East population would be less than 34-years of age, which indicates that the predominantly young society is highly likely to chalk out a new course, influenced by its rapidly increasing exposure to the external world. With the steady influx of technology, and with the growing exposure to the external world, the North-East society is going to manage that process of change and to provide a proper direction so that the change becomes a well-guided and orderly transition rather than a sudden discontinuity.

It must also be borne in or mind that this region in general is a distinct geographical entity and each of the seven States comprising the region has also very distinct and separate identities and traditions. Therefore, no set or any standard approach will hold good for all the seven States equally or in some degree.

Inflation, welfarism and public sector

By M. N. Minocha

In the past inflation was associated with wars and the extraordinary influx of gold and silver. It ended with the disappearance of these specific causes. But inflation after World War II has been both universal and persistent. It must, therefore, have a universal and persistent cause.

The monetarist school led by Professor Milton Friedman regards excessive growth of money supply per unit of output as the villain of the piece. But this interpretation explains only the symptom, not the cause of inflation. Money does not fall from the sky. It is the product of the economic and political system. The monetarist school ignores this basic aspect of the problem. If one compares the world economy before and after World War II, two important facts come to light. These are the universal acceptance of the need for and vigorous promotion of economic growth and social welfare and a sharp prise in the proportion of the national income spent by the state and the concomitant growth of the public sector.

Growth is not a new phenomenon. But growth along with social welfare as an overriding policy goal in almost all countries of the world after World War II undoubtedly is. The world economy has also become much more integrated as result of the rapidly growing international trade, travel, technical and economic cooperation.

As a result of the universal acceptance and implementation of the policy of rapid economic growth with social justice, the public sector has grown rapidly in all capitalist economies. It ranges from one-quarter to more than one-half of the national income in most countries. The disposal of such a huge proportion of the national income by the state has in turn caused an enormous growth of the services sector.

Though the services sector has expanded considerably everywhere, the growth of productivity in it is negligible in comparison with the other sectors because the operation of productivity-raising actors, such as capital formation, innovation and competition, is much weaker in it. But this differential in the growth of productivity is accompanied by an almost uniform increase of wages and salaries in all sectors of the economy. Increase of wages and salaries in the fast productivity-growing sectors are, with or without any significant time-lag, secured by the low-productivity services sector. This inevitably raises costs and therefore prices of all sorts of services.

The rapid growth of the services sector generates demands for funds to finance its expansion. Since the growth of government revenue on the basic of the usual taxes suffers from severe administrative and legislative constraints in a democratic set-up, it rises at a lower rate than public expenditure. This compels the government to borrow continuously from the central bank which has become the major source of excessive money supply in all capitalist countries.

Since public goods and services constitute an important component of household budgets in an advanced economy, their rising prices contribute significantly towards raising the cost of living which, in turn, generates a wage and salary push throughout the economy and thus leads to inflation. Even if there is no budget deficit, the very fact of a huge public sector having a large services component is enough to generate inflation of the cost-push variety. The classification of labour into productive and non-productive segments by classical economists has a great relevance to inflation.

In the less developed countries agriculture is the predominant sector in terms of the percentage of the working population engaged in it and its contribution to the national product. Growth without inflation requires, among other things, a rise in the productivity of agriculture which is commensurate with the growth of the manufacturing and the services sectors. Since the latter two are expanding at a much higher rate than the former, it generates an acute disequilibrium in the market for agricultural products. The result is rapid rise in the prices of agricultural products which generates a cost-push in the industrial sector. In short, it is the lack of balance between the growth of agricultural and non-agricultural sectors that generates inflationary pressure in the less developed nations.

Another phenomenon is more or less common to developed and developing economies - wages and prices in the industrial and the services sectors do not move downwards: they only move upwards. A shift of demand in favour of one industry and adverse to another does not result in the fall of prices in the latter, while prices in the former rise. Such demand shifts are concomitant features of economic growth.

J. R. Hicks, the British Noble prize-winner, has advanced an explanation for inflation based on the rapid and balanced growth of the world economy since 1945. According to him, there is a maximum feasible growth without inflation which a country can achieve. The limits of such non-inflationary growth are determined by the rate of growth of food and their essential industrial raw materials.

The advanced capitalist nations have been growing beyond this level. But before 1971 inflation in them was of a creeping variety, partly because the economically fast-growing nations amongst them provided credit accommodation to those whose economy grew more slowly and partly because of the overall declining trend in the world prices of primary products. After 1971, when both these features disappeared, inflation and high unemployment have both accelerated.

The unprecedented growth of the world economy has put tremendous pressure on the food and raw material resources of the world. There is an undoubtedly considerable scope for the expansion of their output even on the basis of known technology; however, in the absence of any "epoch-making" innovation in the fields of energy and food production, strains of an even more severe kind are bound to develop.

Apart from this technological constraint, there is a persistent demand on the part of primary products exporters to raise commodity prices. If they succeed in forming cartels similar to that of the oil-producing countries, the consequences for the world economy are not difficult to imagine. Demand-induced inflation is not difficult to control, but such cost-push inflation has no other lasting solution than some 'epoch-making' innovation in the fields of energy and food production.

This analysis should not be interpreted to imply that the only way to contain inflation is to stop or decelerate economic growth and leave the process of income distribution wholly to market forces. Both these would be highly retrograde steps. The difficulty has arisen not so much because of high economic growth as because of its highly unbalanced nature.

The remedy, therefore, does not lie in stopping growth or in reducing its tempo. It lies in efforts to make growth more balanced and to bring to fruition innovations in the fields of energy and food production. Balanced growth requires a high degree of social engineering and control over productive activity which may not be feasible in a capitalist economy. But 'epoch-making' innovations in the production of energy and food are simply a matter of time. So there is no reason to be unduly pessimistic. Taking stock of both the events, the contemporary world-wide inflationary situation appears to be a transitory phase in the historical evolution of the modern capitalist economies. Accordingly, monetarism, as many times before, is also a transitory phase. INAV



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