Daily Excelsior... Editorial

EDITORIAL

Reaction in Valley

Thirsty Jammu

Present peace process
is tenacious

By Samuel Baid

LTTE acquiring air power

By H.L.D. MAHINDAPALA*

Insurgency in north east

By Nilesh

Nature has showered its bounty in all its munificence to the Northeast, making it a region extremely rich in natural resources- biodiversity and hydro-potential, in particular. The natural wealth of the region has been supplemented by the vast reservoir of human wealth.......more

EDITORIAL

Reaction in Valley

What is the reaction in the Valley of the visit of the Mirwaiz Umar Farooq-led Hurriyat and Jammu-Kashmir Liberation Front chairman Yasin Malik to the other side of the Line of Control? Surprisingly, the opinion varies. Organised sections have formed their own viewpoints depending upon which side of the political spectrum they are. For the National Conference the entire exercise has been a failure and it has accused the Hurriyat leaders of deceiving the people. The State's premier political outfit in turn finds someone in the most unlikely quarters nearly echoing its views --- its bitter ideological foe Syed Ali Shah Geelani, hardcore leader of the Tehreek-e-Hurriyat. Avoiding harsh language Mr Geelani does not think "they had taken or have brought anything". In his opinion if there is a positive impact of any development it should be visible on the ground which he evidently seems to think has not happened in this case. This hardly bears any reiteration that he has already burnt his boats with the Mirwaiz faction. The People's Democratic Party as the leader of the ruling coalition is naturally upbeat. It is patting itself on the back for having facilitated the enhanced bonhomie and harmony in the sub-continent and has already declared that it is not averse even to the proposed tour of the Valley by Pakistan Information Minister Sheikh Rashid who is of the Kashmiri origin. The party had made the point about the Pakistan minister's trip in the midst of the controversy triggered by the JKLF chief's reported observation that Mr Rashid had facilitated the training of 3500 Kashmiri young men at a camp near Rawalpindi (in retrospect it appears that it might have been aware that Mr Malik was misreported as he had not talked of the training camp but the Pakistan minister offering shelter and hospitality to the JKLF members who were left high and dry by the neighbouring country's ruling establishment in the early nineties). On their part the Hurriyat and JKLF leaders after their return are maintaining the sort of restraint that they had shown before crossing the Kaman Bridge.

So far as the dispassionate observers are concerned they feel that the visit has been a step forward in strengthening the people-to-people interaction. They tend to take what they describe as a broader view of the situation and for them it does not seem to matter that Pakistan had discarded with the formality of stamping visas on their Indian passports to enable them to travel up to Islamabad. Since the Hurriyat and JKLF leaders addressed public meetings and exchanged views with diverse sections of society in Pakistan and "Azad" Kashmir as the occupied territory is locally known there was as a result, according to them, a far more relaxed atmosphere on both sides. They are hopeful that this will have the effect of transforming "Azad" Kashmir from a base camp for arms training into a habitat of peace and debate. Those young persons who still harboured the designs to cross the LoC must be having second thoughts after listening to all that their one-time hero JKLF chairman must have said in "Azad" Kashmir. In this context it is to be noted that quite a few leaders on the secessionist spectrum in the Valley are appreciative although in private of his reported remarks about Sheikh Rashid's arms training adventure although he has taken pains to set the record straight that he has been attributed something he had never spoken.

Whatever be the immediate feeling there is general skepticism whether this visit would lead to any solution in the long run. This is because of the past experience including similar journeys undertaken first by Sheikh Abdullah in 1964 and then by Abdul Ghani Lone in 2000. It seems that like the leaders of all hues the ordinary citizens too are keeping their fingers crossed. The people acknowledge that with the two neighbouring countries faithfully adhering to cease-fire and Pakistan to a large extent keeping tabs on its trained militants there is a definite improvement in the overall scenario. New Delhi has further inspired their optimism with the reduction in troops and now the reopening of the Srinagar-Muzaffarabad road appears to have added to the feel-good environment. In brief, the people think that any such activity is better than the vicious tussle of the gun. If at times they rub their eyes in disbelief it is because they are conscious that their hopes for normalcy and tranquility have been belied more often. That is why perhaps instead of looking around they are making the best use of the available opportunity to attend to a large number of tourists who have thronged the Valley. For them nothing else seems to matter at this juncture.

Thirsty Jammu

It is really odd that despite heavy snowfall last winter there is acute scarcity of water in this city. As pointed out in a news analysis in this newspaper recently there is a big difference of about one crore gallons between the demand and supply --- as against the availability of 5.4 crore gallons the requirement is of 6.3 crore gallons. There is a near-crisis like situation in old parts of the city where the taps turn dry after one hour or so. Not only the people have to adjust their daily schedule accordingly the load shedding and unscheduled power cuts compound their worries. Given this situation the people can't be faulted if they may have installed electric pumps to take the water to higher floors. However, one adverse fall-out of this system is that those who are farther from the source of supply doubly suffer: not only are they late in receiving water they also get less quantity. The scene elsewhere is no different. The localities like Roopnagar which are considered better off are similarly placed. What is alarming, according to our report, is that in some areas there is water supply only once in a week. Muthi, Paloura, Bantalab, parts of Dagiana and Gangwal are among the worst-hit localities. If one has a look around the Jammu region, one can imagine the hardships the common people must be facing in Kathua district in particular. This is not to suggest that the situation is much better in the higher reaches. The nature may have been kind to those areas that have a few fresh water springs but they are in the grip of man-made problems that can be resolved with a little planning. Once in a while one comes across the report of demonstrations by angry citizens on the roads including on the Jammu-Srinagar highway.

Admittedly the water is emerging as the biggest challenge of the present century. This is true of the entire world. Global warming, shifting glaciers and fast depleting ground reserves are adding unforeseen complications. In our case the Indus Water Treaty is another adverse factor that affects us in this behalf as well: it prevents us from storing the water of the mighty Chinab. All these, however, can't be the reasons for the administration to sit back and relax. It must remain on its toes. The least it can do is to plug leakages at all levels and take other precautions.

Present peace process is tenacious

By Samuel Baid

The hard-earned peace between India and Pakistan is tenuous, claims to irreversibility of the ongoing peace process, notwithstanding. Recent statements coming from Islamabad and New Delhi don't strengthen such claims. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh during his recent visit to Siachen had suggested (i) consultations with Pakistan for reactivating the Kargil-Skardu road, (ii) peaceful settlement of Baltistan and (iii) declaration of Siachen as a mountain of peace. The reaction of Pakistan's spokesman Jalil Abbas Jilani was: "India committed aggression in 1983 (and) has to vacate that aggression to make Siachen a peaceful area. We hope India would unconditionally withdraw." Referring to Dr.Singh's suggestion to make Siachen a mountain of peace, he said: "we hope that the statement reflects change in Indian position."

He strongly reacted to the reference to Baltistan and once again reiterated his country's new interpretation of the United Nations resolutions on Kashmir to say that these resolutions were applicable only to that part of Kashmir that was with India and not to "Azad Kashmir" and Gilgit, which, he claimed have already sought freedom from India and the Maharaja." This interpretation of the UN resolutions is as old as the present Pakistan-sponsored terrorism in Kashmir. Pakistan-based Jammu and Kashmir Liberation Front (JKLF) Chief Amanullah Khan admitted in an interview with Urdu daily Jang in 1991 that at the behest of the Pakistani Army his party launched militancy in Kashmir with three bomb blasts in Srinagar. The latest disclosures say that the present Information Minister Sheikh Rashid ran a terrorist camp in Rawalpindi in the late 1980s and early 1990s. Possibly, the credit for unleashing terrorism in Kashmir goes to this camp in Rawalpindi. Amanullah dropped another bombshell by announcing an interim government for the whole State of Jammu and Kashmir as it existed before 1947 pending the referendum as envisaged by the UN resolutions. The Pakistan High Commission in New Delhi issued a press release saying that only the part of Kashmir with India required referendum because in the rest of the State, under Pakistan's control, the people had made their decision. For those who know the inside of "Azad Kashmir" and Gilgit-Baltistan, it is a white lie. Amanullah Khan's announcement about interim government made no impact but it provided Islamabad an opportunity to give its own interpretation to the UN resolutions to justify militancy in Kashmir.

Dr.Manmohan Singh's reference to Baltistan obviously meant to emphasise that despite all the CBMs and relaxed attitude on Kashmir, India considers whole of the State of Jammu and Kashmir as its integral part. That irked Mr.Jalil Abbas Jilani so much that he lost all sense of history. He said: "we have got the impression that India was following the policy of heads I win, tail you lose. India has to accept the disputed nature of occupied Kashmir and accord the right to self-determination to the Kashmiri people, rather than talking of areas, which have already sought freedom from India and the Maharaja."

Pakistan, which day and night harps on the UN resolutions, need not be reminded of the resolutions of August 13, 1948 and January 5, 1949, which it and India accepted. The August 13 resolution recognised Pakistan as the aggressor in Kashmir and asked it to "secure the withdrawal from the State of Jammu and Kashmir of tribesmen and Pakistani nationals not normally resident therein, who have entered the State for the purpose of fighting." That was the first condition for a UN organised plebiscite in the State. Pakistan never complied. It has since been trying to give one justification after another to the fruit of aggression with itself. Mr.Jilani's claim that the Kashmiri areas occupied by Pakistan had been liberated by the people is a very cruel joke on the right-less residents of these areas. This claim has absolutely no support from the said UN resolutions.

Amid all this, a new controversy has emerged. This relates to Jammu and Kashmir Liberation Front (JKLF)'s leader Yasin Malik's statement that his boys were given training in militancy in camps run in a farm house owned by the present Information Minister Sheikh Rashid in Rawalpindi. India took this revelation very seriously. External Affairs Ministry's spokesman Navtej Sarna regretted that people directly involved in training jehadi rebels continued to hold high positions in Pakistan. He said "no effective action has been taken by Pakistan to dismantle the infrastructure of support to terrorism on a permanent basis. This is contrary to the assurance given by the Pakistani leadership that Pakistan will no allow any territory within its control to be used to support terrorism in any manner."

Sheikh Rashid forcefully denied he never conducted terrorist camps. Yasin Malik said his statement was distorted by media. Sheikh Rashid even went to the extent of denying his own identity to say it was some other "Sheikh".

But if we can lay our hands on Pakistani newspapers of the late 1980s and early 1990s, we will find that the very same Sheikh Rashid ran terrorism camps in Rawalpindi not only for Kashmiri militants but also for young Sikh rebels.

Gen.Aslam Beg, who was the Army Chief then, told BBC (Urdu) on June 15 night that there was no need for Sheikh Rashid to deny it. "It is fact that he was running these camps. They were shut down in 1991 when then Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif came to know about them. You can ask this from Mr.Sharif." He said Foreign Office spokesman Jalil, who denied this, didn't know about them. Even Gen.Pervez Musharraf is unaware of it. But Gen.Beg badly fumbled when BBC correspondent Suhail Haleem asked how could these camps be run in Rawalpindi without the knowledge of the Army.

In future the sustainability of the present peace process between India and Pakistan will depend on to what extent Pakistan is willing to come out from its additional hang-ups. That terrorism in Kashmir has almost gone to 1989 level shows that Pakistan has not done enough to fulfil the promises General Musharraf made to former Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee in January 2004.

LTTE acquiring air power

By H.L.D. MAHINDAPALA*

The Sri Lankan Government is in the horns of dilemma wondering whether to bomb or not to bomb the LTTE airstrip. This 1250-metre runway near the Iranamadu tank in the north was built between 2003 and 2004. The firm foundations were laid and progress was made when Ranil Wickremesinghe entered into a lovey-dovey relation with the LTTE - a period in which Bradman Weerakoon, his secretary, intervened with the Customs to provide duty free equipment to the LTTE.

Military analysts say the two aircrafts sighted so far (there is more to come, according to some sleuths) are similar to the Czech built Zlin Z1-43 capable of transporting 12-14 commandos. It can avoid the radar screen because of its low-flying ability and its small size which does not register significantly. If Colombo allows the airstrip to operate, as it does now, it can pose a serious threat to its own security.

Experts aver that the LTTE never arms itself just to show off their military hardware. The addition of an air-wing points directly to LTTE's long-term plans. Both Indian and Sri Lankan analysts agree that the aircraft lying on the Iranmadu airstrip are air-borne bombs waiting to go off. But if the airstrip is bombed now it will be seen as a violation of the Ceasefire Agreement (CFA). It may provide the LTTE an excuse to launch Eelam War V.

Considering the limited aircraft they possess, analysts have concluded that the LTTE will not waste its air capability until they have finished calculating its full impact and the fall-out. Sooner or later, the LTTE will use it, perhaps on a swift suicide mission to target a strategic point, including possibly the Lanka President, either at her residence or secretariat or at a public meeting.

In all probability, Ranil Wickremesinghe, the Leader of the Opposition, will not be a target because he has a close relationship with the LTTE. The LTTE too considers him to be their best bet in getting their demands through the political process in the south.

LTTE too knows that its options are limited. Any attempt by the LTTE to take the war to Sri Lankan airspace would force Colombo to retaliate by bombing the Iranmadu airstrip. Hagrup Haukland, head of the Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission, also shares this assessment. Addressing the Foreign Correspondents' Association of Sri Lanka ( May 26, 2005), he said: "If the Tigers fly, it will be a violation of Sri Lankan airspace and also of international law because the air space is a matter only for the sovereign Sri Lankan government. If their (Sri Lankan) air force bombs the air strip, then it will be war. If bombs fall, we pull out."

He also held out a warning to the LTTE. Though the airstrip "means a hell of a lot" to the LTTE "it will not only destabilize Sri Lanka's security, but India's security as well", he said and voiced the view that the very acquisition of aircraft by the Liberation Tigers could be deemed a ceasefire violation.

Hagrup's other remarks are equally interesting and in deed very significant. "Sri Lankan Government has a legitimate right to arm itself. The LTTE doesn't. It is the legitimate responsibility of the Sri Lankan government to defend all of Sri Lanka, its land, sea and air. These defence responsibilities are much larger than that of the LTTE. It (LTTE) is recognised only in so far as the ethnic conflict and the peace process in Sri Lanka are concerned."

The LTTE, for its part, claims that it has a right to arm itself (1) to maintain a military balance and (2) to pursue its "liberation struggle". But, according to analysts, the more it arms itself the more it reveals its hidden agenda of making use of peace for its next military adventure. In 1988, the LTTE acquired surface-to-air missiles. Since then they have been increasing their military strength by smuggling ship loads of weapons and ammunition, sensitive listening devices and naval capacity.

Most these were attained with the silent consent of Ranil Wickremesinghe regime. It was because Wickremesinghe aided and abetted the LTTE to rearm and reinforce its lethal weaponry that President Chandrika Kumaratunga stripped him of his defence portfolios when he was on the lawn of the White House, twiddling his thumbs before a media pack. After his usually weak protests he gave in and in the subsequent election campaign, in which his pro-LTTE stance was canvassed stridently, the voters too agreed with the President.

Norwegians too have shown a tendency to prolong the current no-war, no-peace situation while turning a blind eye to the LTTE beefing up its military capability for an eventual attack. The Norwegians claim that they do not have powers to interfere in the internal affairs of either party. But independent observers in Norway and in Sri Lanka have pointed out that Norway had played a key role in strengthening the political, diplomats and military capabilities of the LTTE. For instance, it is Norwegian pressure that has delayed the Canadian government moves to ban the LTTE with no positive gains to advance the peace process to a compromise acceptable to all communities. One commentator said that the Norwegians are now playing the role that India played in training, arming, and providing logistical support to the Tamil terrorist organization in the eighties...

India has done a flip since then. India's role was summed up by one Sri Lankan commentator who remarked: "The Indian bullet that targeted Sri Lanka ricocheted and hit India in the belly." Though India has changed its stance against the LTTE it is still dragging its feet without taking decisive action to protect its southern flank which is being wooed actively by Pakistan. In a one-bob-each-way foreign policy India has shown no inclination to take positive steps to protect its regional interests while threats to its internal security are being debated hotly by South Indian leaders.

Says a Sri Lankan commentator: "India's internal compulsions are clashing with her external interests. This has paralysed India's capacity to strategise and act firmly to assert its claim to be the regional superpower." The fact that the "peace process" is not going anywhere, except to the planes waiting to take off at Iranmadu airstrip, is revealed in the statistic cited by the head of the Sri Lankan Peace Secretariat, Jayantha Dhanapala, in his address to the delegates of the Sri Lankan Development Forum at Kandy on May 17.

Jayantha Dhanapala said that "since February 23, 2002 to date there have been 2,837 LTTE violations of the Ceasefire agreement (CFA), of which 55.4% were instances of child conscription. As for the Government of Sri Lanka (GOSL), there have been 129 violations, 37% of them related to harassments by the security forces at checkpoints."

The Norwegian-led peace monitors too are aware that they are stuck in the peace process because of the intransigence of the LTTE though they would not admit it for fear of being thrown out by the LTTE. Hagrup Haukland has admitted that they (peace monitors) had been denied access to the airstrip and permission to land there while on a recent helicopter recee.

The 60-member Scandinavian Peace Monitors have been patrolling the ground situation since February 23, 2002 when the Ceasefire Agreement came into operation. Their role too has been questioned repeatedly by the media and community leaders. Haukland's predecessor was thrown out of Sri Lanka at the request of the President on accusations of not fulfilling his duties objectively.

In the current see-sawing, the only discernible factor is that the shaky "peace process" is coming under increasing threats (1) by the LTTE politics of escalating its demands each time there is a likelihood of a solution and (2) by the military build up under the noses of Norway, India and the Sri Lankan government. Needless to say, the Tigers; airstrip and its future role will decide whether it is going to be war or peace. (Syndicate Features)

(Senior Sri Lanka journalist now settled in Australia)

Insurgency in north east

By Nilesh

There is therefore, all the more reason to ensure that given its inherent richness, the region does not lag behind in any sphere and becomes an equal and a proud partner in the nation's forward march towards progress and development.

Formulation of developmental policies and programmes for the North-Eastern region, however, requires a holistic and a well-coordinated approach, which addresses the economic, social, cultural, political, educational and internal security related issues and also the imbalances of the region.

''When people in New Delhi think of the North-East, they usually think of the geographic distance, which translates itself into mental distance. When people in the North-East think of Delhi, they usually think of the developmental distance, which translates itself into emotional distance'', former Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee had said at a meeting of Governors and Chief Ministers of North Eastern States on May 8, 1998.

Soon after India attained Independence, its northeastern region plunged into insurgencies. The happenings in the region damaged the very core of development.

While the rest of India moved from one Five year Plan to another, the Northeast remained a far off spectator of development and progress.

The villagers of the region, comprising of various ethnic identities could no more remain confined to their ''restricted activities''. The introduction of settlers from outside had been a common phenomenon for many villagers. But with the surge in insurgencies, the terrorists and the security forces personnel became a fast emerging new and a disturbing trend for the locals.

Youths, often deprived of a decent living as compared to the settlers due to lack of proper jobs and related avenues were lured away by a deadly mix of guns and philosophy offered by militant leaders.

Guns bought them sudden prosperity. But the weapons also gave them a free hand to do things their own way. The village culture often dictated by traditions and advice from elders was ignored. This also resulted in the development of the concept of 'cultural policing' in the region.

Decision, often taken in a haste resulted in bloody consequences. While ethnic clashes and encounters with security forces left many maimed and dead, it also triggered a chain reaction of ignoring values and customs amongst the local populace, especially the youth. According to the Union Home Ministry, most of the insurgents in the region are of teage group of 16 to 35 years. ''You tend to leave arms for a cozier life after a certain age,'' claimed an Intelligence official who has served in Nagaland, Mizoram and Jammu and Kashmir.

The insurgency in the Northeast has claimed over 45,000 lives in the past four decades! While observers of the region claim that the actual figure could be much higher, the security forces deployed in the region claim a lack of ''official figures'' in the number of people killed in the region due to insurgency-related crimes.

Ideologies and philosophies later gave way to money and power gained by gunrunning, drug smuggling, extortions and newly developed business interests. While there had been reports of insurgent groups imposing moral and cultural codes of conduct on the people, it is an open secret now that while the lower rung cadres slug it out against rivals and security forces, the militant organisations' top shot had been investing money extracted from extortions into various business activities in South-East Asia, Bangladesh and Nepal.

And of course, their financial consultants had been operatives of Directorate General Field Intelligence (DGFI) of Bangladesh and Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) of Pakistan.

The adoption of several villages in Mizoram during its insurgency period as progressive protective villages (PPVs) on the lines of US actions in Vietnam makes an interesting reading.

The security forces had suggested resettlement of villages as a counter-strategy. Named 'Operation Accomplishment', it was launched in January 1967, after the Union Home Ministry gave its consent. Accordingly, 109 villages were relocated into 18 group centres of what was called PPVs, closer to either side of the Viarengte-Aizwal-Lunglei main road. In the ensuring counter-terrorist operations, 36 MNF cadres were killed. Seventy-five security force personnel also lost their lives between January 4 and February 15, 1967. The SFs also arrested 100 MNF cadres. Phase II of Operation Accomplishment was launched in 1968-69.

During the operation, approximately 240,000 persons constituting some 80 per cent of the total population in the Mizo Hills were organised into 102 groups by the year 1972. The idea was to isolate the terrorists from the civilian population. The terrorists, this way, would head to the nearby jungles. Security operations would be, consequently, directed against the insurgents and civilian deaths could be minimised.

Operation Accomplishment was supplemented by Operation Blanket during the later half of 1960s. Self-contained, independent groups of 10 to 15 SF personnel would station in a particular location for a prolonged period of 15 to 20 days under this strategy. This was to give a feeling that their presence was not for a short duration and they were there to stay for the safety of the local population.

The villagers would thus feel secured in the presence of the SFs. This was also done to encourage the local population to associate themselves with counter-insurgency operations and to win their confidence. Also, information about the MNF would come through, it was felt, in the wake of diminishing fear of reprisal by the latter.

Besides the local populace, the deployment of troops in the region for counter-insurgency has created another problem-- this time for the police para military and other organisations, including the Army.

Boredom and stress are driving scores of soldiers in the region to promiscuous sex, resulting in their contracting HIV.

According to official estimates, 32 Assam Rifles soldiers have died of the disease and some 180 more are currently battling for life at two 'treatment camps' in the region after having tested HIV-positive. The first HIV-positive among Assam Rifles soldiers was detected in 1992.

Working in isolated and hostile jungle terrain, fighting separatist guerrillas for a long period often leads to monotony and stress which leads many soldiers to the ''easy way of relaxation'' by going for sex with local women in the area without really knowing the consequences.

After random blood screening, Assam doctors have sounded an alert within the force saying the number of soldiers infected with HIV was alarming.

''We cannot remain complacent with the trend of HIV infection among our troops assuming menacing proportions. Now we find more soldiers dying from HIV/AIDS than from bullets fired by militants,'' Lt General Bhopinder Singh, Director General of Assam Rifles, said at its headquarters in Shillong.

''We admit this is a problem and needs to be tackled urgently before it spills out of control'', Singh added.

Similar reports of HIV infection among the army and other paramilitary and state police forces in the Northeast have also come in.

As part of its drive, Assam Rifles authorities are distributing free condoms to its soldiers.

India accounts for about 5.1 million HIV-Positive people, next only to South Africa. The northeast has been declared as one of India's high -risk zones with close to 100,000 people infected with HIV.- CNF