EDITORIAL

Slow but steady

This is hardly surprising that on the eve of Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf's visit to this country one comes across reiteration of known positions by both the neighbours. Defence Minister Pranab Mukherjee, for instance, has been quite categorical in blaming Pakistan for having "double standards" on terrorism and continuing to have "terror infrastructure". He has minced no words in stating that in its latest exercise Pakistan is training the militants at its "launching pads" how to negotiate the newly-built fence along the Line of Control and International Border in Jammu and Kashmir. Echoing similar sentiments External Affairs Minister Natwar Singh has gone a step further and ruled out fixing "a time-frame or deadline" for resolution of the J&K issue "which has ....more

A cruel joke

It appears to be a cruel joke that a sum of Rs 3.11 crores released by the Union Ministry of Environment and Forests for protecting forests from fires in the State has been allowed to lapse during the just-concluded financial year. The reason for such casual approach is not clear but available indications, according to a report in this newspaper, are that these funds may have been diverted for some other purpose. There has been an enormous increase in the number of forest fires across the State. More than 300 such incidents have been officially admitted both during last year and in 2003. The details available for the earlier period are no less shocking. There ....more

The Commando in Musharraf
Men, Matters & Memories

By M L Kotru

Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao has come and gone leaving behind a framework that may perhaps put India-China relations on an even keel. But what is one to make of the Commando from across the border who will wing his way to the Indian capital over the ...more

China - angle versus factor! .…
Yours Randomly,

By Dr. R. L. Bhat

After decades bhai-bhai is again in the air. Even a grudging echo of Panch-Sheel could be heard though it was quickly overtaken by 11-points preferred by China. Of course, that is typically Chinese - they would always have their word and way as the Prime Minister Wen did when ....more

Modernising Milatry
Machine

By Vinod Vedi

The Cabinet Committee on Security recently cleared price negotiations for second-hand Mirage-2000V fighter-bombers from Oman and licenced-production of fast attack craft in Indian shipyards. Shortly thereafter, the Dr Vijay Kelkar Committee submitted the first part of its report on a greater role for private Indian industry in the defence effort. These represent a two-track policy - foreign imports and indigenous manufacture - of acquisition of military equipment required for national defence......more

EDITORIAL

Slow but steady

This is hardly surprising that on the eve of Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf's visit to this country one comes across reiteration of known positions by both the neighbours. Defence Minister Pranab Mukherjee, for instance, has been quite categorical in blaming Pakistan for having "double standards" on terrorism and continuing to have "terror infrastructure". He has minced no words in stating that in its latest exercise Pakistan is training the militants at its "launching pads" how to negotiate the newly-built fence along the Line of Control and International Border in Jammu and Kashmir. Echoing similar sentiments External Affairs Minister Natwar Singh has gone a step further and ruled out fixing "a time-frame or deadline" for resolution of the J&K issue "which has defied solution for so long, and which, by all accounts, is complicated". He has been equally hard-hitting against Pakistan asserting: "There is no question of taking Pakistan off the hook on the issue of cross-border terrorism or terrorism in the Valley'. He has made a specific reference to Pakistan's "illegal occupation of a portion of J&K". It is not without significance that in quite a few interviews National Security adviser M.K. Narayanan has been cautioning the Union Government to proceed ahead with open ears and eyes. He has been doing it because this is "part of his job'. However, he has spoken within the broad contours of what Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has asserted earlier that the boundaries of the country can't be redrawn and there can't be any territorial exchanges. On his part, the Pakistan President has made it abundantly clear that "we cannot accept the Line of Control to be the final solution. We have to find an out-of-box solution". So far he is concerned there is not "that much time" left and he would like to take up the "Kashmir dispute immediately". Of course, he has not forgotten the "Kashmiris" saying that since Pakistan has pledged a political resolution to them it is a matter of principles which "one does not give up for the sake of any other expediency".

In between, the Mirwaiz Umar Farooq faction of the Hurriyat Conference is again enjoying one of its occasional fine hours. One of its key members, Mr Bilal Lone, had created a stir --- it has turned out to be a storm in a teacup though --- by boycotting one meeting of the conglomeration but turning up for the other after persuasion by other members. The reasons for his initial hurt are not known. On record he had sought the inclusion of Jammu-Kashmir Liberation Front chairman Yasin Malik and Democratic Freedom Party chief Shabir Shah (both of whom have been moving together of late) in the delegation that is to call on the Pakistan President in the national capital. Was he dropping a hint to join hands with them in case he was not shown due respect in the Hurriyat faction? Mr Malik and Mr Shah are among the invitees in their own right. One is not quite sure, however, how the JKLF chief would react to being put on the same pedestal as his colleague-turned-rival Javed Mir who too has been invited on behalf of the Pakistan President. There is no confusion about veteran Syed Ali Shah Geelani.

The reasons why the Pakistan President wants to meet only one section of leadership of the Valley are too well known to need any elaboration. At the present juncture, one would like to draw satisfaction from the silver lining in what may appear to be a cacophonous environment. This is that everybody wants total peace.

A cruel joke

It appears to be a cruel joke that a sum of Rs 3.11 crores released by the Union Ministry of Environment and Forests for protecting forests from fires in the State has been allowed to lapse during the just-concluded financial year. The reason for such casual approach is not clear but available indications, according to a report in this newspaper, are that these funds may have been diverted for some other purpose. There has been an enormous increase in the number of forest fires across the State. More than 300 such incidents have been officially admitted both during last year and in 2003. The details available for the earlier period are no less shocking. There were 369 forest fires during 1999-2000 affecting an area of about 35 lakh square kilometres, almost double of what was hit in 274 identical occurrences in 1996-97. Actually there have been more than 200 fires every year in the State forests ever since 1991-92. Globally it has been acknowledged that these fires are both accidental as well as intentional. A human error like carelessly throwing a cigarette can set dry leaves on fire triggering a major environmental tragedy. Invariably unscrupulous elements too cause havoc. For instance, in our State itself, a senior officer once alleged, greedy forest lessees first set fire to forest blocks after exploiting them and then claimed right to fell trees in other zones. This, he admitted, was possible only because the official apparatus colluded in it. What he left unsaid was that there was perhaps political patronage too to those indulging in this devastation of green gold. According to one estimate, the number of natural fires is very less --- a mere five percent of the total. They may occur because of friction between dehydrated elements spread all over. Mostly it is a human hand behind the majority of them. Since culprits are never easily identified these happenings are generally dismissed as 'mystery fires'. It is strange that even otherwise well-guarded forest depots have not escaped from this evil phenomenon and they burn off and on. How is that possible without some sort of nexus not existing at certain level? Now that summer has come there are already fears gripping the concerned officials that the fire incidents will become frequent. This malady is spread on either side of the Pir Panjal. In the Jammu region, these fires have amazing frequency in lower and middle Shivaliks, and the middle ranges of Pir Panjal in Udhampur, Doda, and Poonch districts. In the Valley, they have been causing concern for years and the situation had only worsened during the long phase of militancy.

The need to prevent this damage to our rich natural treasure can hardly be over-emphasised. Preventive and protective machinery should be fully geared for the purpose. This can be achieved by building watch towers and well-equipped controls rooms much like they are seen in protected sanctuaries. Large water tanks ought to be dug so that their contents can be effectively deployed for extinguishing fire. Of course, no mercy should be shown to those indulging in vandalism. Their mischief should be subjected to exemplary punishment. If needed the present checkposts must be further strengthened. Forests are too precious to be allowed to be burnt, looted and plundered. Their loss leads to climatic disorders. Besides, there is erosion of soil and wild life threatens to become extinct. The ultimate casualty of all this is human life itself. Taking into account these adverse factors one can only regret that the money available for the safety of forests has not been used.

The Commando in Musharraf
Men, Matters & Memories

By M L Kotru

Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao has come and gone leaving behind a framework that may perhaps put India-China relations on an even keel. But what is one to make of the Commando from across the border who will wing his way to the Indian capital over the week-end. Will the Commando in Pervez Musharraf spring more surprises on his host, the Indian Prime Minister? His current visit in fact is born of his capacity to surprise, a good commando's legitimate ploy. He simply wanted to watch one of the six cricket one-dayers his country's team was playing in India. If Indians invited him he would just love it. Dates etc, would be worked at mutual convenience.

New Delhi hemmed and it hawed before finally inviting Pervez Musharraf to witness the last one-dayer to be played at Delhi's far from complete Ferozshah Kotla ground. The visit wouldn't have the trappings of a formal State visit. Never mind that one, the General knew it well that the ''trappings'' were of no consequence. Said the General at a convention of students in Islamabad: cricket was really not what he was visiting Delhi for; it merely provided him an opportunity to jolt the Indians into talking Kashmir with him. The Kashmir issue, the commando in Musharraf believed, had perhaps been pushed to a back-burner and hence the need to bring it upfront.

The one-dayer and the Srinagar-Muzaffarabad road reopening must be seen in the overall context of Musharraf's priorities. These were no more than mere confidence building measures. The real thing was to talk Kashmir, Musharraf clearly suggested at his monologue with the students' convention. The bus was just a modest beginning of an effort to help the ''divided'' Kashmiri families to meet each other.

The roadreopening did lead to a sense of euphoria, not wholly misplaced. Imagine the joy and happiness the reunion of the families commuting by the first bus in either direction would have brought to those involved is the process. But here again Musharraf and his men were upto their old tricks.

They it now transpires, wanted to carry across to their side as many of the younger kin of the slain militants as possible. It is possible that the military leadership genuinely wanted to help these unfortunate children; they may even have seen in them prospective Quislings who could be properly educated to serve future Pakistani interests in the State. Quite a few names of such prospective travellers on the bus from Srinagar to Muzaffarabad and vice versa have since been identified.

And, lo and behold, Musharraf wants the Hurriyat leadership from Srinagar to be enabled to take the bus. Why, because they favour secession from India. It was natural therefore that he should therefore oppose the idea of mainstream Kashmiri leaders taking the bus to Muzaffarabad. Why, because they would not pass the Musharraf litmus test, not nurturing separatist thoughts. To drive the point home he has invited Hurriyat leaders to meet him in Delhi the day he arrives.

Musharraf was is not loath to speak of a Kashmiri independence movement even as his bags for the Delhi visit were packed. The Kashmiri ''freedom fighters'' would continue to receive political, moral and diplomatic support from Pakistan, he said. At the moment it seems rather rashly perhaps- that we may be in for a repeat of the Agra fiasco, given the General's burning obsession with Kashmir. Not that his hosts in Delhi would be unwilling to discuss the issue but it would have to be done in the comprehensive context of Indo-Pak relations. And, then Dr Manmohan Singh who was there to see off the first lot of passengers on the bus from Srinagar to Muzaffarabad, had declared in the Kashmir summer capital not very long ago that India will not accept another partition, not another division of Kashmir, nor any change in the boundaries. At the same time he had indicated, and on later occasions as well, that India is ready to discuss other options Musharraf may have up his sleeve.

But according to the Musharraf book there really can be no denying a man like him. Remember how George Bush and company are eating out of his hands, as it were. Think of the encomiums showered on him and his leadership qualities by Condoleeza Rice when she came calling on him, the good, old reliable friend. Only that the people of Balochistan or of the NWFP or the Sindhis or, for that matter, all the radical Muslim leaders of Islamic parties in the country do not share the American view of the man. But, then, Musharraf is confident of his powers of persuasion, confident also that Dr Manmohan Singh may be unable to spurn his charm offersive and, who knows, might even accept a quick-fix solution to Kashmir proffered by the visitor from Pakistan!

One would without any reservation, like the India-Pakistan dialogue to proceed normally and in a manner that serves well the interests of the people of the two countries and, ofcourse, the people of Jammu and Kashmir. If it is his burning desire to help the Kashmiris there is so much he can do in tandem with India that could indeed transform the face of the State of Jammu and Kashmir and the sub-continent as a whole. Doing so would however deprive him of his raison de'tre.

Kashmir has over the years helped a succession of Pakistan's military dictators to keep people's minds preoccupied with the K word. How can Musharraf afford to be any different, though, he, more than any of his predecessors, is in a position to give a positive push to the nevermending Indo-Pak relations. More than anyone else, the people of Jammu and Kashmir would benefit the most from a fresh and innovative view of all the outstanding issues between the neighbouring countries. As for cricket diplomacy, one of Musharraf's predecessors, Gen Ziaul Haq, had given it a try by showing up at an Indo-Pak match in Jaipur and, to his credit, he had not loaded his visit with a hidden agenda. But then Zia was not a commando. I believe he was a plain artillery man.

China - angle versus factor! .…
Yours Randomly,

By Dr. R. L. Bhat

After decades bhai-bhai is again in the air. Even a grudging echo of Panch-Sheel could be heard though it was quickly overtaken by 11-points preferred by China. Of course, that is typically Chinese - they would always have their word and way as the Prime Minister Wen did when he skirted the UNSC membership issue. That, or anything else, did not deter the genial sardar who has gotten to prime-minister India from giving the China hand, extra-shakes. Yes, China is here again. But then, you can't ignore China today - not in the world and not at all in the Asian equation. For decades she lived in haughty isolation and the world could do nothing. Now she is wallowing in participation and the world is only too happy. With even the US admitting that its 'containment' of China has been overtaken by investment in Chinese economy, India simply cannot live without reckoning the giant across Himalayas. To be frank India never tried to do that. Nor, would the Indian intellectuals permit her even if she attempted to do so.

Indeed, it would not be widely off the mark to say the Indian opinion-masters - opinion 'makers' looks imprecise in the Indian context as the opinionated ones here are more habituated to imposing their opinions rather than soliciting them - have been living in actual awe of the giant. The opinion here has deferred to her; the politics has never really emerged from the China-shock, actual and ideational. Accordingly, the Indian strategy has ever been in dread of the dragon. Add to this the strange fact that though the SAARC-sisters are overly sensitive about India behaving as a big brother they have no compunctions in accepting China as the big brother here. From the Islamic Republic of Pakistan to the Hindu kingdom of Nepal they keep looking to the dictatorship in north with more geniality than the democracy in the south. Indeed, there has been a more fruitful commerce of goods as well as ideas across the culture-linguistic divide than with the cultural and language continuity they all share with the Indian mass.

Indeed, it is a wonder why a wide spectrum of peoples is more comfortable dealing with a closed fist rather than an open hand? Or, why the socio-political as well as economical truths are not being appreciated as they stand. Indian politics still labors under the shadow of Mao and Marx even after they have long been given up for dead in the lands of Revolution. As no leader or analyst there ever tries of telling, Chinese opened up their nation and economy to market capitalism twenty, rather twenty-five years ago. The thinkers here are yet to get out of the socialist-communist fix, are still to accept market module. At the same time, nobody here tires of telling how fast the Chinese have progressed! While holding China as the model they rarely acknowledge the political bulldozing which their system permits the Chinese to brow beat dissent and dissensions with. To take another example, the Chinese have long buried the aged and passed to younger blood and belief, but the communist hankerers here still believe that the only wiser ones are the grey hairs. Now, how long do you think would somebody like Lalooji be tolerated in the land of dragon?

But, of course, the times are achanging. Calling China the Dragon is passé. Panda is the more accepted symbol. China today is hailed for market economy and capitalist ventures rather than the stubborn adherence to a defunct ideology. Only the other day the Indian communists, in what is seen as an open rebuff to the economic thinking and actions of the west Bengal government, harangued FDI by setting guidelines to restrict it to certain areas only. Of course, it all is done in deference to the needs and cares of the commoners. And here was the Chinese tourism director saying, the other day, that China has few small hotels that could cater to the common people. Yet, China boasts of countless classy expensive hotels. For, the government there is catering to the big-monies and goes out of way to make their stay comfortable, fulfilling and memorable. Nobody needs tell how they sterilized their population growths; it is well known. Yet it is rarely unacknowledged. It, or any other factor, is never mentioned when comparisons are mounted or when the Chinese model is lauded and lobbed around. Not to be emulated but to be shown around to prove how miserably India has failed.

That actually makes the distinction between 'angle' and 'factor' valid. There the intellectual opinion never matters. The dictated line is all. It somebody gets fired while standing in the line it is only inevitable. If the haughty tanks crush innocent protestors it is easily overlooked. Nobody there blackmails the government into submitting to the goodwill or such other things as the opinions here do. Even the patronizing stance that China wants India to 'play a bigger role' in the international arena becomes a concession when it is a clear rebuff to the high Indian hopes of permanent membership of Security Council. All that makes one wonder whether the Indians suffer from a deep inferiority complex that they always have to look up to others, have to discover their failure in the patently wrong policies of other nations especially the mightier ones around and have to keep lauding others only to beat themselves and their endeavors good?

Modernising Milatry Machine

By Vinod Vedi

The Cabinet Committee on Security recently cleared price negotiations for second-hand Mirage-2000V fighter-bombers from Oman and licenced-production of fast attack craft in Indian shipyards. Shortly thereafter, the Dr Vijay Kelkar Committee submitted the first part of its report on a greater role for private Indian industry in the defence effort. These represent a two-track policy - foreign imports and indigenous manufacture - of acquisition of military equipment required for national defence.

There is a third track-the design and development of whole range of weapons systems in the scores of Defence Laboratories, Defence Public Sector Undertakings and Ordnance Factories strewn around the country.

This conceptual framework has been in existence for more than a decade, interrupted rudely by the Kargil invasion by the Pakistan Army dressed up as "mujahideen" or Islamist freedom fighters seeking "self-determination" for the people of Kashmir.

This episode too was in the news with the submission of an affidavit by the Government in the courts that the procedures adopted for the massive splurge of defence equipment were in keeping with norms and rules, adding to the controversy over whether it represented a "clean chit" for the previous regime.

Thus, in what was described at the time as being in the "reactive mode" India went in for the purchase of the Mirage-2000 first version straight off the French drawing board and new versions of the MiG aircraft to counter the delivery of F-16s to Pakistan. That was indicative of how fresh injection of weaponry into the region set off a chain reaction if not an arms race on the subcontinent.

It is being argued in some quarters that the announcement by President George Bush that he is set to supply a new fleet of F-16 aircraft to Pakistan has prompted India to decide on buying the Omanese Mirage 2000V nuclear-capable multi-role fighter-bombers. This is not entirely correct because the Mirages were on sale some years ago and Pakistan had evinced an interest in them, the Oman government deferred to Indian sentiments and did not send the planes to Pakistan. Price negotiations could well have been expedited by the US announcement of F-16 for Pakistan.

It is a good decision in that it will introduce a more modern version of the Mirage into the Indian Air Force fleet without adding exponentially to the requirement for spare parts and logistical backup because of the commonality with earlier versions of the aircraft being used by the IAF.

Returning to the larger context of the modernization of the Indian military machine it needs to be stated that the past decade has been one of self-inflicted difficulties caused by a paralysis in the Defence establishment by exposes of scandals in defence deals despite the fact that adequate outlays were made in the budget for the acquisition of new weapons systems.

Hopefully, the judiciary will look into this aspect when it decides on the splurge of orders that were required to be placed with foreign firms when Kargil happened and apportion responsibility. Naturally the equipment arrived well after the war had ended giving the lie to the oft-repeated assertions by the Government in power at the time that everything was done to meet all likely contingencies in national security.

It needs to be recalled that the central logic of the tri-track policy in procurement of military equipment is essentially how Jawaharlal Nehru and his much-maligned Defence Minister, Krishna Menon, enunciated it: Self-reliance to ward off the malign effects of the manipulation of the security environment on India's periphery in the first instance, and, then to move to a large modicum of self-sufficiency in the wherewithal for national defence and territorial integrity.

But it needs to be carefully assessed if opening up the defence sector procurement to civil industry will fulfil that goal. It would be ideal if the Indian industrial complex, on its own and in keeping with the concept of self-reliance, take up the manufacture of everything from aircraft to submarines. But high-tech equipment without developing industrial know-how by a sustained investment in research and development is difficult to come by indigenously!In the absence of a well-developed research and development culture it is very likely that the industries that are interested in entering the defence market will shop abroad for the technology using the 26 per cent foreign direct investment window to build its military-industrial base on transfer of technology (TOT) or licenced production which was the foundations of the Defence Research and Development Organisation and the network of Defence Public Sector Undertakings under its command five decades ago. Therefore, in many ways we will be reinventing the wheel in the beginning of the 21st century.

In the words of former Prime Minister Inder Gujral the developed military-industrial empires will only sell obsolescent equipment to developing nations. Given the existence of international agreements and understandings among them not to supply high technology without first signing the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, the Missile Technology Control Regime, etc it remains to be seen how the Indian civil industry will acquire transfer of technology for equipment intended to serve the Indian armed forces well into 2025 A.D.

A small example of how obsolescent equipment finds its way into developing nations' armoury is that of the bullet-proof jacket. The last few years has seen Indian security forces mopping up bullet-proof jackets comprising two ceramic plates touted to protect vital organs like the heart and the upper abdomen.

The fact of life on the battlefield is that more often than not the side-on nature of the rifleman's stance leaves him open to be shot through the shoulder or the arms with modern-day kinetic ammunition penetrating the bones and entering the very vital organs that the ceramic plates in the front and the back of bullet-proof jackets are meant to protect.

The developed nations passed off this technology to private sector firms in India and have moved on to creating bullet-proof jackets that will also address the lateral areas of penetration. Whether they will hand over that technology to Indian firms is moot. We have also learned to our utter dismay at Kargil that the head too is a very vulnerable target.

Clearly, unless the Indian civil industry has a well-thought-out R and D policy it will forever remain victim of obsolescence. It may serve a short term requirement of the armed forces but it is designed to fulfil the dreams of the foreign military-industrial complexes for inroads into the Indian military market.

Thus what will happen is that there will be two avenues of transfer of technology - the civil and the military-and the allocation of spoils is going to prove a political minefield. It is in the third avenue of military technology procurement - the indigenous research and development projects - that there is some hope of being able to move with the times in terms of state-of-the-art technology.

It is here that the Government of India must make the necessary investment of a significant portion of the gross domestic product (GDP) so that, over time, the Defence Research and Development Organisation, the nodal agency for what one former head of the institution said would "leapfrog" technology to jump into

The future could be expected to overcome the historic condition of "paucity of funds" and the "resource crunch" and get on with the job of making India self-sufficient in at least some of the major weapons systems its armed forces require for the defence of the nation.

A self-sustaining military industrial complex fed by both the civil industry and the DRDO is an ideal that needs to be nurtured; without indigenous research and development and long-term perspective planning the whole exercise could prove to be ad hoc. (Syndicate Features)

 
 



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