PERISCOPE ON PAKISTAN
Debate on troop reductions

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s unilateral decision to withdraw sections of the Army from Jammu and Kashmir has put the onus firmly on Pakistan to cease and desist from encouraging terrorism. But, as Chief of Indian Army Staff Gen N.C.Vij has pointed out, attempts to infiltrate across the barbedwire fence along the Line of Control continue unabated.

JANG in an editorial says: "Islamabad's hope has some credence when it says that India's decision of troops reduction will help the ongoing peace process. It will also increase the confidence of Kashmiris. These dialogues can succeed only when both the parties will realize that the process has to reach a final and meaningful end. It is hoped that Mr Shaukat Aziz and Dr Manmohan Singh meeting in New Delhi will pave the way for further action in the peace process.

"According to Kashmiri leaders, the number of Indian troops in Jammu and Kashmir is about ten lakh. Pakistani sources say about seven to eight lakh troops­ are stationed there. But according to media reports the number of Indian troops is not more than three or four lakh in Kashmir. Despite controversy over the number of troops in Kashmir, it is clear that the number of troops in Kashmir is much more than needed.

Though the reduction of 40,000 troops from Kashmir is not a major cut, however, the beginning of the process and intention of Dr Manmohan Singh show a good sign and it could bear fruit in the long term.­

"Dr Manmohan Singh has also said that he will discuss the Kashmir issue with Mr Shaukat Aziz. He said that if reduction in troops brings some positive response, further thinking could be done on the issue. India and Pakistan are repeatedlysaying that quick result should not be expected from the ongoing confidence building measures.

NEWS says editorially: "We have a feeling that Dr Manmohan Singh might be thinking more creatively and if we are right then there is food for thought here and the broad hint opens up space for Kashmiris to play a much bigger role then they have done thus far. Until now, India has tried to use a two-track approach by talking to Pakistan merely on reducing tension... while sporadically engaging half-heartedly Kashmiri groups within J&K and considering the issue as an internal matter. That has failed and will again fail if New Delhi continues to flinch in the face of Kashmir's reality. We hope that this time round there is a rethink involved.

"Five points stand out in Dr Singh's address: That there is a solution to Kashmir and that peace would return to the region; that if the Berlin Wall could go down, things could also change in Kashmir; that New Delhi is prepared to talk to anyone in Kashmir who has a viewpoint and abjures violence; that India's only demand from Pakistan to move ahead on Kashmir is that the Pakistani territory must not be used in support of militancy and that India would not accept any further re-drawing of the boundaries.

"What does this mean? There are linkages here and they need to be understood. The troops that left Anantnag are a fraction of the strength India has in J&K. Their departure is more symbolic than substantial."

NEWS adds: "The reference to the Berlin Wall and the emphasis that there could be no redrawing of boundaries need to be read in conjunction. The 55.3 billion economic package Dr Singh announce and the 24,000 jobs he says would be created are also an extension of the strategy signaled by reference to the Berlin Wall and the rejection of redrawing of the map. They point to the possibility of a solution within the status quo. It would be interesting to see how Pakistan reacts to it and what kind of solution(s) it can put on the table when things move ahead on Kashmir.

"In fairness to Dr Singh, the rejection of redrawing of boundaries is a demand made by most Kashmiris and cuts across ideological differences. The Kashmiris also emphasise a linkage with Azad Kashmir and the Northern Areas and insist on having a dialogue with the local leadership in the two regions once part of the State of Jammu and Kashmir. This fact is also stressed by the Hurriyet leaders on both sides of the divide. We have reason to believe that General Musharraf knows this, not least because Mirwaiz Umar Farooq whom he (Musharraf) met recently in Amsterdam must have brought it up.

"This does open up possibilities but those possibilities go beyond the national narratives of both Pakistan and India. If by rejecting redrawing of boundaries Dr Singh implies the kind of control India exercise on J&K at this stage then we are afraid that New Delhi's thinking continues to move in the old groove. The Hurriyet leadership is very clear that there can be no resolution of Kashmir under the Indian Constitution. However, we have a feeling that Dr Singh might be thinking more creatively. If we are right then there is food for thought here and the broad hint opens up space for Kashmiris to play a much bigger role then they have done thus far. However, it should be clear that for this they have to first put their own house in order and come up with a framework that takes care of their aspirations while keeping in mind the sensitivities of New Delhi and Islamabad.

"Mr Shaukat Aziz would perhaps like to figure out future possibilities in relation to what his boss said on October 25 and what Dr Singh has said in Srinagar two days ago and go back to Islamabad armed with that information that India wants to create something within the territorial status quo. There is conflict here but also opportunities for a creative solution if the three parties are prepared to keep these positions in mind and try to work within the process. Mirwaiz Umar Farooq says the Ansari faction of Hurriyat has got a formula that seeks to work out the differences among the various regions of Kashmir and that he wants a dialogue with representatives of all regions as well as the mujahideen, before finalising it. This is an opening that must be exploited and if Dr Singh is really sincere in moving things forward, he should allow the Hurriyat to proceed further in its effort to find that consensus.

"Bringing the mujahideen on board is important because the Kashmiri freedom movement owes as ­much to the gun as it does to politicking."

Suggesting "to move away from some of the traditional approaches and start looking at the Kashmir conflict an a human rather than a territorial issue", Talat Masood, in an article in DAWN, cautions: "In any event, an attempt to impose a one-sided agenda - by any of the three parties to the dispute should be avoided at all costs as it is bound to fail."

Tayyab Syed Gul in an article in NATION, adds "Pakistan should focus on mobilising international support to build pressure on India to reduce its overwhelming armed presence in Kashmir and halt the indiscriminate killings, violence and torture of innocent Kashmiris. Success on this score itself would be a major victory for Musharraf and will open prospects for a forward move." -- (ADNI).

News Analysis
J&K Islamist fundamentalist construct is stronger

By B L Kak

The Government of India has officially repeated that Pakistan has not fully and finally dismantled the infrastructure for terrorists and the groups they belong to. The Government continues to be of the opinion — in fact, it has evidence — that various individuals and organisations and agencies across the Line of Control (LoC) provide moral and material aid to Islamist rebels and separatists in Jammu and Kashmir.

Gen Parvez Musharraf and his Government have, of late, intensified the talk in support of peace and harmony with India. New Delhi, too, is keen on making available greater support for a genuine Indo-Pakistan amity and friendship and for peaceful settlement of all outstanding problems, including the Kashmir issue. True, violence in Jammu and Kashmir has, in recent times, declined. But the argument that 'normalcy' is returning in the troubled State is a flawed one.

The situation has not shown any significant change, with levels of alienation continuing to be high, and anger, against the establishment — Indian establishment, to be precise — hardly having diminished. True, Jammu and Kashmir State is currently not in a deeper quagmire. But one thing is pretty clear — that is, Islamist fundamentalists continue to be unwilling to walk together with India on the road to peace.

Notwithstanding the successes achieved by security forces and Jammu and Kashmir police in eliminating leading militants in recent times, the ground situation is not satisfactory. Recruitment of Kashmiri youth, officials have admitted, as militants is again becoming evident. Infiltration has, in no way, come to a halt. It will not, at least for the time being. A new manifestation snakes along a 740-km narrow swath of territory, known as the Line of Control. It is a fence, meant to keep at bay infiltrators from Pakistan who are seeking to separate India's portion of Kashmir from India.

The fence is largely completed. The fence is similar to the barrier being built by the the Israelis to control the infiltration of militant Palestinians. But the Indian fence has received far less international scrutiny than the Israeli barrier and surprisingly muted opposition from the Pakistanis. Some question the fence's long-term effectiveness in deterring motivated militants.

Recently, the New York Times quoted the Kashmir Hurriyat Conference leader, Maulvi Umar Farooq, as saying: "People who want to come and are determined to come (to Kashmir), they will come. They have routes and maps, and they will use them". Apart from the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT), the Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) and the Al Badr, the Hizbul Mujahiden has lately become quite active. In Pakistan, Hizbul Mujahideen is a constituent of the United Jihad Council (UJC), which has rejected the peace process in no uncertain terms.

If India does succeed in deepening the peace process within Jammu and Kashmir, this rejectionist position could engender some escalation of violence. All this, however, lies in the future. There are groups of people in different parts of the Valley that are anxious for early return of peace and normalcy. But, at the same time, fear is the dominant imperative and few political leaders, including those under State protection, feel safe.

Many worry that they may be next on the 'hit-list'. Lack of headway in the Centre's talks with militant groups, particularly Hurriyat Conference, is highly disappointing. Worse still is that advantage could not be taken of the rift in Hurriyat ranks. The powers-that-be in New Delhi and Srinagar will have to admit that it is the Islamists, the Jamaat-e-Islami and Pakistan that have come out trumps.

The Union Home Ministry has already placed on record: "It is estimated that about 60-70 percent of the terrorists operating in the State (J&K), at present, are from outside, with locals mainly playing the role of porters and guides. Since local support has considerably dwindled, terrorists depend almost entirely on support from across the border. Foreign mercenaries are more ruthless in killing innocent civilians without a thought."

At a time when subversives and jihadis in parts of India are reported to be facing financial crunch, attempts have been revived by Pakistani agencies, particularly the ISI, to flood three sensitive regions with fake Indian currency. These regions have been officially identified as Jammu, Rajasthan and Gujarat. Selection of Gujarat and Rajasthan as launching pads for the passage and circulation of fake Indian currency in major parts of India is to be viewed in the context of the geography of the two States. Gujarat is bounded on the north-west by Pakistan, on the north by Rajasthan, on the east by Madhya Pradesh and on the south and south-east by Maharashtra.

Rajasthan shares India's frontier with Pakistan on the west and north-west. Punjab bounds it on the north, Haryana and UP on the north-east and east, Madhya Pradesh on the south and south-east and Gujarat on the south-west. The areas identified for the purpose in Jammu region are Jammu city, R S Pora, Bishnah, Vijaypur, Marh, Akhnoor and Khour sections of Jammu district, Rajouri town, Manjakote, Darhal, Budhal, Nowshera, Sunderbani and Kalakote sections of Rajouri district and Poonch town, Mandi, Mendhar, Balakote and Surankote sections of Poonch district.

Some media reports from PoK (Pakistan occupied Kashmir) have revealed that unlike the previous years when several large groups of 30 to 50 militants each were launched daily from camps located on the Line of Control, the new strategy of Pakistanis is to launch smaller groups of 10 to 15 persons, with long intervals in between. Bagh and Lipa sectors have lately become important for the ones assigned with the task of pushing infiltrators into Jammu and Kashmir. The groups that managed to cross the LoC in these sectors were launched from a facility at Gojra in Muzaffarabad.

For years, Pakistan, its intelligence agencies and jihadi groups have used terror as a conscious strategy. Of late, Islamabad has come under severe pressure to curtail infiltration across the frontiers. Turning off the terrorist tap by Pakistan will determine how far Islamabad latest overtures go. And new Delhi has, once again, made it clear that the onus is on Pakistan to dismantle the terrorist infrastructure it has allowed on the territory.

Pakistan's viewpoint: Kashmir, because being Muslim, should have formed part of Muslim Pakistan. Pakistan completely ignores the fact that India is the second largest Muslim country in the world, having more Muslims than Pakistan. The Kashmir problem, or any such problem for that matter, cannot be resolved without taking into account the repercussions it will have on the rest of the country.