Is more aid needed to solve Africa’s woes?

JOHANNESBURG, Nov 15: American economist Jeffrey Sachs has a novel way to tackle African poverty: Shower more aid on the world’s poorest continent.

This may shock critics of African development who say aid has only made a bad situation worse.

Some analysts say aid has created a continent-wide sense of dependency and that vast amounts of donor funds have been wasted or stolen by inefficient or corrupt Governments.

Africa is desperately poor despite being the recipient of tens of billions of dollars in aid over the past few decades.

The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) says that sub-Saharan Africa’s per capita gross domestic product in 2002 was 469 dollars compared to 22,987 dollars for the affluent members of the organisation for economic cooperation and development.

But Sachs, in a brookings institution paper called "ending Africa’s poverty trap," maintains that only a huge infusion of carefully targeted public investment will pull Africa out of its grinding poverty.

Defying conventional wisdom, he asserts that previous aid flows to Africa have been far too small — or been squandered on dictators such as Mobutu Sese Seko of the former Zaire.

"... Consider a large forest fire with a tendency to spread. Suppose that only one fireman is initially sent to fight the blaze, and he is overwhelmed," writes Sachs.

"The critics might then say ‘why should we send more firemen? We’ve already seen that they are ineffective"’

Sachs recommends that a beefed-up aid/investment programme into Africa be tied to the UN’s Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), which call for halving the proportion of people living in poverty globally by 2015.

The price tag? Sachs estimates that globally perhaps an additional 50 billion dollars to 75 billion dollars a year will be needed, roughly doubling the current amount.

Sachs points out that donor countries from the rich world have committed themselves to official development assistance equivalent to 0.7 percent of their combined Gross National Product (GNP), or about 175 billion dollars.

"Even our high estimate, of an additional 75 billion dollars per year would put the donor countries at around 125 billion dollars per year, or 0.5 percent of current GNP," he says.

Sachs — who looks at 33 sub-Saharan African countries — says Africa has become steadily poorer because it is stuck in a "poverty trap, too poor to achieve robust, high levels of economic growth."

Disputing the contention that Africa is suffering from a crisis of governance, he maintains the continent has faced huge obstacles found no where else.

Sachs says the coils of Africa’s poverty trap include:

- Very high transport costs, with many africans living in the interior of a continent with few navigable rivers.

- Low agricultural productivity, with erratic rainfall, few rivers for irrigation, and not enough fertiliser to replace nutrients in an increasingly withered soil.

Africa has also missed out on much of the "green revolution", which has focused on wheat, rice and maize. Only the latter is widely grown in Africa, which is also heavily dependent on millet and tubers.

- A very high disease burden, especially from HIV/AIDS and malaria. Climatic and biological factors make African malaria particularly intractable.

- Adverse geopolitics, including ruthless exploitation by colonial powers who drew up African borders with no thought to ethnicity. A vast slave trade stretching back centuries undermined state formation.

- A very slow diffusion of technology from abroad.

These factors, sachs maintains, lead to extreme poverty which in turn leads to low savings rates. The level of capital is so small that it falls below the threshold needed to start modern production processes.

Add high rates of population growth from the rural poor who see young children as an economic asset because of the household chores they perform, and the jaws of the trap close tightly.

"These three factors — capital thresholds, savings traps, and demographic traps — are all interactive. It is quite possible that no single one of these factors would be sufficient by itself to cause a poverty trap, but they do so in combination," writes Sachs.

The escape route is a big push in public investment, especially to well-governed African countries — though some of the best-run, such as South Africa and Botswana, are not included in Sachs’ assessment of mostly tropical Africa.

Along with more aid he also calls for more trade, especially in agricultural products — but says the gains accrued would be no substitute for sustained increases in foreign aid.

Interventions would attempt to raise rural productivity, tackle Africa’s heavy disease burden, and aim for universal completion of primary education.

Sachs’ big plan has its critics — and in an age of "donor fatigue" and fiscal concerns in the developed world, it is hard to see how the rich countries will be convinced to stump up the extra money.

The much-vaunted new partnership for Africa’s Development (NEPAD), which ties increased investment and aid to better governance, has so far delivered very little.

The economist newspaper, in a critique of Sach’s proposal, said a sudden infusion of free cash into Africa could tempt more crooks to enter Government or reduce the incentive to enact painful reforms, such as privatisation.

But Africa — which has grown poorer and fallen steadily behind the rest of the world — clearly needs some kind of bold plan to save it from catastrophe. (AGENCIES)

US troops hunt Falluja rebels, keep aid out

FALLUJA, IRAQ, Nov 15: US and Iraqi forces hunted rebels in the devastated Iraqi city of Falluja yesterday as fighting subsided after a ferocious six-day-old assault.

The US military said 38 of its soldiers were killed and 275 wounded in the week-long battle to capture the city ahead of elections due in January.

US forces have said some 1,000 insurgents were killed and 450 to 550 captured. There is no word on civilian casualties, but residents say many people have died.

Kidnappers who had threatened to kill Prime Minister Iyad Allawi’s cousin, the cousin’s wife and their daughter-in-law if he did not call off the Falluja offensive said they had released the two women, Al-Jazeera television reported.

No help has reached civilians in Falluja since the assault began on Monday and US forces kept a red crescent aid convoy of seven trucks and ambulances waiting at the main hospital near a bridge over the Euphrates river on the edge of the city.

A correspondent who drove through the city saw bloated and decomposing bodies in the streets, smashed homes, ruined mosques, power and telephone lines hanging uselessly.

US Marines swept through a last rebel redoubt in a southern quarter of Falluja that they see as a Bastion for foreign fighters loyal to Al-Qaeda ally Abu-musab-al-Zarqawi.

"These are pretty diehard. These people down there are not sniping or firing, but waiting in their defences for the Marines coming to their buildings. That’s when they open fire," Marine Colonel Mike Shupp told at the hospital.

Shupp said he had not heard of any Iraqi civilians being trapped inside the city and did not think there were any, so the red crescent did not need to deliver aid to civilians there.

"There is no need to bring supplies in because we have supplies of our own for the people. Now that the bridge is open, I will bring out casualties and all aid work can be done here."

"We will wait for permission and we will stay here tonight," red crescent convoy leader Jamal-al-Karbouli told .

Allawi, who has vowed to crush a raging insurgency before elections in January, said Falluja had been cleared of rebels.

"Falluja is no longer a safe-haven for terrorists," he told Al-Iraqiya TV. "No doubt there will also be clean-up operations for some nests... I don’t know how long this will take."

He said on Saturday there had been no civilian casualties —contradicting accounts from residents inside the city, where intense violence has halted medical services and made any independent assessment impossible.

"Our situation is very hard," said one resident contacted by telephone in the central Hay-al-Dubat neighbourhood. "We don’t have food or water. My seven children all have severe diarrhoea.

"One of my sons was wounded by Shrapnel last night and he’s bleeding, but I can’t do anything to help him."

The man, who gave his name only as Abu-Mustafa, said he had seen US troops and Iraqi national guards in his street as explosions rang out. "There were bodies lying in the street."

Abu Mustafa said he knew of six families nearby in a similar plight, but then broke down in tears. "We are still fasting, though it is the eid (end of Ramadan feast) today. Allahu Akbar, Allahu Akbar (God is Great)," he sobbed.

It is unclear how many of Falluja’s 300,000 people remain, but about half are thought to have fled the fighting.

Tank and artillery fire shook Falluja for much of the day but by nightfall the fighting had died away. More than 10,000 US and 2,000 Iraqi soldiers took part in the assault to take the city as part of operations intended to help pacify Iraq for national Assembly elections due Jan 27.

"Holding elections will be a great challenge. But delaying elections could be even more dangerous," said Iraq’s deputy Prime Minister Barham Salih in an interview with the Guardian newspaper.

The Falluja offensive has fuelled violence across Iraq’s Sunni Muslim heartland, especially in the northern city of Mosul, where an uprising has left gunmen roaming some districts.

Insurgents overran a police station in Mosul on Sunday and US troops, backed by Iraqi security forces, battled for two hours to retake it, the US military said.

Machine-gun and mortar fire hit Poland’s embassy in Baghdad late on Sunday, leaving no casualties after a 40-minute exchange of fire between around 15 insurgents and embassy guards, a Foreign Ministry Spokesman said.

In the refinery city of Baiji, US helicopters fired missiles at insurgents, and US troops and tanks moved into the city centre after clashing with rebels, witnesses said. (AGENCIES)

Holy warriors flock to join Zarqawi in Iraq

AMMAN, Nov 15: The family of Sheikh Omar Jummah had no idea he was in Iraq until a midnight caller told them he had died fighting alongside Al-Qaeda ally Abu-Musab-al-Zarqawi.

Omar, 35, a Jordanian like Zarqawi, fought for a year with other Islamic militants battling to expel US-led forces from Iraq. But he kept his family in the dark.

"He told us he was leaving for Saudi Arabia to take up a teaching job," said his 64-year-old father Youssef Jummah.

Jummah recalled that his son was deeply religious and had memorised the Koran by the age of 13. But no one in his family expected that his piety would drive him to militancy.

Zarqawi’s group has claimed responsibility for the beheading of foreign hostages and some of the bloodiest suicide attacks in postwar Iraq.

His followers are believed to form a hard core within a wider insurgency by Iraqi nationalists and Sunni Muslim fighters loyal to ousted Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein.

With their religious fervour and ideological commitment, the US military says Arab volunteers like Omar are behind some of the most audacious and lethal attacks.

Like the other Jordanian militants who kept their "Jihad" plans secret, kick-boxing champion Bahaa Yahya, 23, told his family he was going to a tournament in Beirut.

When he arrived in Iraq, Yahya phoned his family to disclose where he had hidden a letter to be read after he died.

"I am in need of the prayers of my mother and brothers and to tell them the world is fighting our religion," Yahya said in the letter which his family opened after his death in September.

He had been fighting US troops in Falluja, Iraq’s most rebellious town, from where Zarqawi was thought to have been holed up, directing the insurgency.

US forces launched a major assault on Falluja last week to recapture it from Islamic militants and Saddam loyalists. But US commanders said they believed senior rebel leaders had slipped away before the offensive, leaving lesser figures to lead the 2,000 to 3,000 fighters remaining there.

Some militants have come home, such as Jordanian Ibrahim Salem, who talked guardedly about a two-week stay in Falluja with Ansar-al-Islam, among the most active of militant groups.

The death of a local Iraqi leader prompted Salem’s abrupt return to Amman, but not before the 23-year-old chemistry student became versed in detonating car bombs.

"There was chaos after the killing of our leader and the Mujahdeen (Muslim warriors) told us it was better for us to return home for now. But I am waiting for another opportunity," said Salem.

Muslim activists say last year’s US-led invasion of Iraq stoked the anger of many Muslim youths who sought to avenge the deaths of Iraqi civilians killed by American fire.

"I am determined to punish the tyrants and let them taste what we tasted to stop them from killing our women and children," said Yaseen Rabei, a Muslim militant with ties to Iraqi fighters operating in the western desert near the city of Ramadi.

Jordanian security officials estimate that several hundred Jordanian "holy warriors" have headed to Iraq since last year’s war to join various Sunni Muslim militant groups.

They say that for the new Jihadists the appeal of Iraq has surpassed Afghanistan, a magnet for a generation of Islamic militants seeking to fight the Soviet communists in the 1980s.

"Iraq is an open battleground for Jihadists to confront America directly. In the space of a few hours, volunteers can leave their countries and find themselves in the heat of battle (in Iraq)," said a top security official.

Iraq has given Islamic extremists the opportunity to secure a "ticket to heaven" through Martyrdom. Easily accessible and with the enemy all around, it has overtaken the Palestinian territories and Chechnya as the battleground of choice.

"The Americans gave the militant extremists a chance they had long dreamt of ... Now their enemy has come to them," said a Jordanian ex-intelligence officer.

The Iraq conflict has spawned a new breed of militants willing to use extreme violence such as beheading as a potent psychological weapon against "infidels".

"It has turned many gentle clerics and young men with strong religious convictions, but who (previously) could not stomach the sight of blood, into eager suicide bombers and executioners," said Sheikh Yusef Abu Kutaiba, a Muslim cleric.

Moderate clerics say Iraq is transforming pious, once non-violent Muslim extremists who shun mainstream Islamic parties seen as tainted by the politics of compromise.

For many young Jordanian militants, the dangers of Iraq only strengthen their resolve to go. Some leave behind successful careers and young children in pursuit of Jihad.

They share an adulation of Zarqawi. "Sheikh Zarqawi is our Imam ... Our leader. He bloodies the enemies of Islam like no other Mujahid (holy warrior)," said Ali Khraisat, after prayers in a mosque in salt, on the outskirts of Amman where scores of disenchanted youths have left to fight in Iraq. (AGENCIES)

Japan security treaty may need review: US official

TOKYO, Nov 15: Changes in Japan’s security role linked to a US plan to realign its military globally to meet new threats may ultimately involve reviewing the US-Japan security treaty, a senior US defence official said today.

The suggestion comes amid a touchy debate over whether the 1960 treaty — the pillar of Tokyo’s postwar defence policy —would need to be revised to accommodate US requests for Japan to host a US army command covering the Pacific Rim.

"I think the treaty we have is a good treaty and provides a reasonable degree of flexibility," US Under Secretary of Defense for Policy Douglas Feith told a group of reporters.

"But it is true that the world has changed pretty radically in recent decades and the idea that one might want to do the kind of more formal approach to defining common ideas is something we are open to," Feith said.

The United States plans to bring home some 70,000 troops from Europe and Asia within a decade as it shifts its military focus to new threats such as terrorism and rogue states, but has made clear that it sees Japan assuming a bigger role as a regional and even global strategic hub for US forces.

"The importance of the Asia-Pacific region is increasing and the importance of Japan as a key ally of ours is increasing," Feith said. "This is a major thought as we work on redefining our defence posture globally."

Japan, now in the final stages of drafting a dramatic review of its own military posture, appears willing to accept a bigger international security role.

Some communities in Japan, however, are worried they may have to host more military personnel.

And some Japanese critics argue that changes being discussed would exceed the bounds of the US-Japan security treaty, which limits the role of US troops based in Japan to the far east.

Among the ideas floated by the US side is to move the command function of the US army 1st corps, stationed at Fort Lewis in Washington state as a quick reaction force for the Pacific Rim, to the US army Japan’s camp Zama near Tokyo.

Feith, in Japan for two days of talks with Japanese officials, declined to comment on any specific proposals.

But he said changes in the global security environment meant a strict regional definition of security threats was outdated.

"One of the things that has changed in the world is the idea that there is such a thing as regional security, something detached from security in other regions in the world," he said.

"That idea doesn’t really fly any more."

Feith said the US-Japan security alliance had adapted well over the decades since it was forged but acknowledged that ultimately some changes might need to be formalised.

"There may be a decision that we want to do something more formal," he said. "There’s an argument that it may be a good thing and there is an argument that it may not be necessary."

Political analysts have said Japanese authorities would prefer not to formally revise the bilateral security treaty because Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi would have to expend considerable political capital to do so. (AGENCIES)

Bush may have to act to save intelligence reform

WASHINGTON, Nov 15: US President George W Bush, who opposed creation of the Sept 11 Commission, may have to confront his own party in Congress if he wants the panel’s main intelligence reform recommendation enacted this year, analysts and officials say.

But as congressional negotiators worked into the weekend to break a deadlock over rival reform bills from the senate and house of representatives, analysts said Bush was unlikely to pressure republican leaders for a deal during the lame-duck session of Congress that starts this week.

"The question we really have now is, ‘how serious is the President?’," said Norman Ornstein, political analyst at the American Enterprise Institute.

"If he told the republicans he wanted it done, or if he gave a talk or a press briefing and said ... ‘I don’t like this gridlock,’ it would happen," he said. "but i think there’s no strong eagerness on the part of the White House to do that."

At stake is the key recommendation of the 10-member Commission that investigated the Sept 11, 2001, attacks — creation of a National Intelligence Director with authority over America’s 40 billion intelligence budget.

In its best-selling report, the Commission said a National Director with full budget authority was needed to effectively oversee an intelligence community marred by huge failures over the Sept 11 attacks, and later, Iraq.

But a senate reform measure that would create such a position is opposed by house republicans who want power kept in the hands of the Pentagon, which controls 80 percent of the intelligence budget.

Sen Susan Collins, a Maine Republican involved in the talks, said a deal could be reached when Congress returns this week. "Much of that will hinge on the success of negotiations ... Through the weekend," she said in a statement.

But others, noting the failure of an earlier attempt to reach a compromise by the Nov 2 election, expect little headway without White House intervention. If the effort fails again, they say, there may not be enough momentum for reform when a new Congress begins in January.

"The ball’s in Bush’s court," said a democratic Congressional aide. "People are losing faith that this is going to go forward."

Rep Jane Harman of California, top House Intelligence Committee Democrat, said Bush must get Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, who would lose clout under the bill, "to stand down on this issue so that the will of Congress and the 9-11 Commission can be implemented."

"The holdouts are a few members of the majority in the House — republican members who are guided by Secretary of Defense Rumsfeld, who continues to oppose reform," Harman said on CBS’ "face the nation."

Bush, who won reelection by campaigning on his leadership in the war on terror, made intelligence reform a post-election priority by urging congressional action after his victory over democrat John Kerry.

"The President is very much committed to getting intelligence reform done this year," White House Spokesman Scott Mcclellan said last week.

But an administration official who asked not to be identified gave no indication that Bush was ready to pressure his own party’s leadership in the House.

"It’s been our staff talking to their staff," said John Feehery, spokesman for House Speaker Dennis Hastert of Illinois, who is spearheading opposition to the Senate Bill.

Analysts say Bush may be concerned that creating a National Intelligence Director with new sweeping powers could throw spy operations into turmoil at a time of war. "In some ways it’s also like admitting a mistake, which the President does not like to do," Ornstein said. (AGENCIES)

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