Reduction in troop deployment in J&K

By K.N. Pandita

With the concurrence of the Cabinet Committee for Security and the Union cabinet, the Prime Minister announced that the number of troops deployed in J&K would be reduced. The reason given is "steady improvement in the ground situation in the state".

Pakistan has been raising the question on all international platforms that India has over-sized military presence in Kashmir and that she should reduce their number.

The timing of the PM's statement is interesting. He had only recently rebuffed a foreign correspondent by telling him that J&K was an integral part of the Indian Union and as such India had the sovereign right to deploy her troops anywhere in the country in any size and strength she required. .

The PM made the announcement soon after his return from the annual meeting with the EU in The Hague. According to media reports, Dr. Manmohan Singh's interaction revealed a changed mood in the EU in comparison to what it was in the last annual meeting. In fact a number of member countries expressed their understanding of India's fight against terrorism and jihadism. By making the announcement of reduction in troops the PM has conveyed a message to the EU to streamline the concept of India as the "strategic partner of the EU". This could mean balancing the views of the US foreign office in regard to Kashmir since Armitage has come out in support of General Musharraf's plan for the solution of Kashmir issue.

The announcement has come soon after the home minister completed his three-day visit to Kashmir during which he made the assessment of the situation on the ground. In all probability his report could have played the catalyst in taking the decision.

The decision has been taken when the autumn is half way on and the mountain passes and peaks in Kashmir are going to receive heavy snowfall. As such major infiltration for next six months is ruled out. A lesser number of troops would be required to deal with the militants already entrenched in the state.

During past few months, the militants have received many a shocking setback. Many of their commanders have been killed leading to chaos in their ranks. Only recently a number of them surrendered in Jammu. According to one report, the total number of active armed gangsters is barely 2,000 and this number can be handled by a smaller number of security forces. Rapid increase in the number of informers with much accurate information, the more sophisticated equipment detecting infiltrating and sneaking jihadis and the impact of gradually improving economic conditions of the people all may have contributed to the decision of reducing the number of troops.

The anti-terrorism tactics and schemes have come of age in Kashmir. Today the security personnel are better equipped, better trained and better determined to counter terrorist attacks. Some of the battalions could be disengaged and deployed in the eastern part of the country where the situation is grave.

The announcement has come after the presidential election in the US is over, and George Bush is in for his second stint in the office. We know that Bush administration has been continuing its gentle persuasion of both the countries to defuse tension and hostility and find an amicable solution to Kashmir issue. Pakistan is convinced that in the changed circumstances, the US is not in a position to force its decision down the throat of New Delhi. The same is true of her approach to Pakistan despite the fact that Pakistan is providing active support in suppressing the Al Qaeda terror. In the event of Washington hardening its stance against Iran -- the other strategic country in the oil rich Gulf region -- by raising the issue of her nuclear weapons programme, she will require Pakistan to maintain substantial military strength on her western border with Afghanistan and Iranian part of Baluchistan. When India decides to reduce the strength of her troop deployment in Kashmir, this will naturally encourage the Americans to insist on Pakistan to disengage some of her troops on Indo-Pak border and re-deploy these on Pak-Afghan border.

It seems that General Musharraf has a firm hold on domestic situation in his country. Pakistani economy has stabilized during the four years of military rule. Her foreign exchange reserve has bulged, and her economic growth has attained 4.5 per cent rate, which is not bad in regional context. Therefore the General would like to tell his people that while negotiating a settlement of Kashmir dispute, he is moving in the right direction and that India is responding to his gestures. This helps in reinforcing his official position, which is a combination of civilian and military power a the highest level.

But with all said and done, a number of baffling questions remain to be answered. The PM has not indicated the number by which the troops would be reduced. Again, he has not indicated the strategy of withdrawal of part of the troops that stand deployed. A rough estimate of 5 lakh troops deployed in the state is a rather misleading figure. We have various groups of security forces deployed in Kashmir. We have the Army, BSF, CRP, ITBF, the J&K Police, and JK Armed Police etc. These groups have been deployed at various places for various duties contributing to the reduction of violence. The question is which segment of security forces will be withdrawn from which sector, in phases or in one go, etc. Again the question is whether the troops will be withdrawn from the frontline to the rear line or out of J&K territory. Then remains the question of Siachin Glacier. Some months back, the Indian Army Chief, General Vij had categorically indicated that we were not demilitarizing Siachin. India has always stated that her military presence in the northern state is not only Pakistan centric. It is essentially China-centric. Does the announcement of withdrawal of troops mean a changed opinion of Chinese presence in the proximity of Indian border in J&K State? These issues are the concern of military experts also. Therefore the announcement made by the Prime Minister shall have to be worked out in minute details before we jump at the conclusion that with the withdrawal of bulk of Indian troops Kashmir will relapse into chaos and turmoil.

Why Altaf cannot return to Pakistan

By Samuel Baid

Mr.Altaf Hussain will be completing 12 years in self-exile coming January without any hope of returning to Pakistan in the near future although his party, the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) has been an avid supporter of Gen.Pervez Musharraf’s rule. That does not guarantee his safety if he returns. "Generals, Presidents and PMs come and go but the Establishment’s policy does not change. They don’t accept me as a loyal citizen of Pakistan," he told a newspaper while in Delhi last week.

Mr.Hussain had fled Pakistan to London on the pretext of getting medical treatment for his kidney in January 1992 when the Army under Gen.Asif Nawaz was planning a crackdown on the MQM in the name of Operation Cleanup. This operation, which started in May 1992, initially targeted anti-social elements and dacoits in Sindh but ultimately turned to the MQM or rather Muhajirs in its full fury.

This party had started as Muhajir Qaumi Movement in 1985 to politically organise Urdu-speaking migrants from India and protect their rights and interest. Gen.Zia-ul-Haq was behind the formation of this party because he wanted to checkmate the influence of the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) in urban Sindh, particularly in Karachi and Hyderabad. The MQM stood up to Zia’s expectations when it won majority of seats in the Karachi Municipal election in 1987. Along with the PPP, the Jamaat-e-Islami too, which considered Karachi its stronghold, was routed. The MQM repeated its feat at the general elections of November 1988. It became the third largest party in Pakistan after the PPP and the Muslim League of Nawaz Sharif.

The Establishment, to which Mr.Hussain referred in his interview to a Delhi newspaper, practically means the Army and the ISI, which have their roots in Punjab’s and Frontier Province’s feudal systems. They were alarmed when the MQM fielded ordinary middle class candidates for the municipal and general elections and won. At the same time MQM launched a campaign against feudalism and the Army’s political domination which, it said, discouraged education and progress and promoted fundamentalism, social backwardness and political instability. This, according to Mr.Altaf Hussain, was the cause behind the military crackdown in 1992. The party’s policy of encouraging middle class polity militated against the political interests of Generals, bureaucrats, Islamists and politicians who have their moorings in the feudal system.

In a Punjabi-dominated country, no Sindhi, Baluch or Pushtun leader can be described as a patriot unless so certified by the Punjabi Establishment. G.M.Syed of Sindh, Ghaus Bux Bizenjo and Ataullah Mengal of Baluchistan and Pushtun leader Khan Abdul Ghaffar Khan and his family all figure in the list of "ghadars" (traitors). Sindhis like Zulfikar Ali Bhutto and later his daughter Benazir could rule as long as they kept the Punjabis happy. Bhutto went all out to character-assassinate these leaders. His daughter Benazir described Muhajirs as timid rats who "do not have the same blood in their veins as you and I have". She was addressing a public meeting in Kasur in Punjab in February 1995. Muhajirs have never been considered as true Pakistanis: they are still looked upon as aliens or Indians. Their repeated claims that they made most sacrifices for the creation of Pakistan don’t impress anybody.

According to India’s first High Commissioner in Karachi Sri Prakasa, three categories of refugees migrated to Pakistan from what remained of India after partition in 1947. They were politicians, businessmen and ordinary Muslims who had worked the most for the creation of Pakistan. The Muhajir politicians and businessmen looked down upon them. Sri Prakasa writes in his memoirs ‘Pakistan, Birth and Early Days’ that politicians and businessmen forced many ordinary Muslims to return to India. In 1951, the Muhajir-controlled Government in Karachi sealed Pakistan’s borders with India to prevent further influx of Muhajirs.

Although Muhajirs took control of the Government in the newly created Pakistan, they failed to get assimilated in the Pakistani society. Their first enemies were Sindhi nationalists who felt they were being reduced to a minority in their own province. But their most deadly enemy was in the Army. The first Pakistani Prime Minister Liaquat Ali Khan, a Muhajir from Karnal in Haryana, was shot dead in Rawalpindi near the military headquarters in 1951. When Ayub took over power in 1958 many top civil servants, mostly Muhajirs were dismissed. Two years later he shifted the Federal capital from Karachi to Islamabad. In 1972, they lost control of their financial and educational institutions because of Bhutto’s nationalisation programme. At the same time, under an undeclared policy, Muhajir educated young people were kept out of jobs.

Muhajirs account for about half the population of Sindh, but they complain they have been denied even their political rights. In the October 1993 elections, the Army prevented the MQM from taking part in them. In 1996, then Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto made new rules to keep this party out of local body elections. Then there was a campaign of vilification. Ms.Bhutto said MQM was a terrorist organization. The Army alleged MQM was working for the break-up of Pakistan by creating a new country by name "Jinnahpur". At the same time a new argument was floated which said Pakistan was created for the people of Muslim majority areas and not for the Muhajirs from Hindu majority areas in India.

During the 1992 crackdown, Gen.Asif Nawaz had managed to split the MQM into two warring groups. The new faction which calls itself MQM Haqiqi or real was given arms and support to finish Altaf’s MQM physically and politically. Army’s real objective was to break the back of the Muhajir power especially now that the Sindhi nationalists under G.M.Syed were trying to join hands with Muhajirs. But the Army could not succeed. Altaf’s MQM is still the most popular among Muhajirs.

Since the October 2002 elections, Altaf’s MQM has been supporting Gen.Musharraf. But Altaf knows very well that it does not mean all is clear for him in Pakistan. He has cases against him, which can take him to the gallows if he returns. The Establishment is not willing to spare him.