Can we retrieve its mortgaged future?

By Maj Gen V K Madhok (retired)

A day prior to 72nd anniversary of the IAF on Oct 8, 2004 the Chief of Air Staff (CAS) made a statement on the TV: that while the IAF had firmed up its aircraft requirements and modernisation was in progress, there were bureaucratic delays. This simple statement however is not enough. There is much more that the Nation is entitled to know from the UPA Government about this most spectacular branch of India's military machine. Considering that it is pitted against an awesome combination of China's and Pakistan's Air Forces (PLA & PAF) That is: the State of IAF's machines; the status of its officer cadre; its problem areas; its readiness to undertake operational tasks and its future plans?

In addition, there are some critical questions. Has the IAF become totally dependent for its fighter aircraft and transport fleet, missile systems and spares on foreign countries? If that be so, then it stands mortgaged and has become a pawn in the hands of foreign aircraft manufacturers. And therefore the question is, can IAF's future be retrieved with a massive and deliberate Indgenisation thrust? Further, with this over dependence, should the supply of spares or replacement of aircraft be suspended or prices hiked, what effect this will have on IAF's operational fitness and country's economy? For how long the IAF will be able to function after cessation of military hardware before it is grounded? Finally, is a deliberate effort being made to scuttle indigenisation programmes so that foreign aircraft and missile factories dont close down? What has RAW and the newly formed DIA (Defence Intelligence Authority) to say on this? And now the bottom line? Have we been unfair to the Service having pledged its future?

But first a few facts as reported periodically in the media. Because, the Parliament has not been debating these issues, thus leaving the Nation totally ignorant about its Air arm. The IAF is short of nearly 1000 pilots against an autorisation of 11, 500 officers or so. How can this be accepted? Normally, a 100% reserve of combat pilots should be available to back up the IAF. Further, the IAF consisting of nearly 45 squadrons (39.5 combat squadrons) continues to fly eight different types of combat aircraft. These are purchased from three countries: the UK, France and Russia. And now, with the Service wanting C130 transport planes and radars besides an American engine powering the underdevelopment LCA Tejas, till the Nation can field its indigenous Kaveri, from the US or UMVs and Phalcons from Israel, the dependency list has two more additions. As regards money! The IAF already consumes a 4th of India's defence budget. A Mirage 2000 costs Rs 150 crores. While an SU 30 or a Mig 21 from Russia costs Rs 200 crores a piece. Our own LCA when inducted in 2010-if all goes well, would be 200 crores a piece.

That is not all. In addition to the fighter aircraft, the IAF needs radars to get early warning of approaching aircraft and missiles. awacs (Airborne Warning and Control Systems) to enhance the range of its fighters and a sophisticated logistic system to ensure the supply of spares, overhaul and repair of aircraft or replacement of outdated machines. As far back as Dec 1992, an ex Air chief N Suri was quite right when he stated on taking over, that his priorities would be indigenization of spares to keep the aircraft flying, self reliance and upgrading of the ageing fleet. The question is, has the situation changed over the years? Obviously not.

However, the spares crunch, reportedly, has eased somewhat to the extent that nearly 6000 items have been indigenized. 40 private industries, 12 PSUs and 10 Ordanance factories are supposedly involved in their production. The Government hopes, that in the next two to three years, spares crisis will be diffused, if not over. But this seems to be a pipe dream. In any case, it is hoped that the Government has learnt its lesson and will ensure that a para for continuous supply of spares will be included while signing contracts. Currently, a spares reports, spares worth Rs 1000 crores, of which the IAF takes a major share of Rs 650 crores or so continue to be imported annually.

As regards self reliance, inspite of the talent that the country has, it remains a mirage. LCA project conceived in 1983- to replace the Mig 21 fleet, is already more than twenty years behind schedule. Its cost has gone up. Two prototype LCAs unveiled with much fanfare by ex PM Narasimha Rao at Bangalore on Nov 17, 1995 cost a whopping 2, 188 crores against the original, visualised cost of 500 crores. More important, the delay in induction has left no option but to upgrade the Mig 21 fleet (nearly 170 aircraft) for another 4,000 hours of operational flying. These will now be replaced by SU 30s, 140 of which are to be produced under a joint Indo-Russian venture at a cost of nearly 300 million dollars at the HAL. Further, with a foreign engine and French avionics the LCA cannot be termed as indigenous.

The position about the Advance Light Helicopter (ALH) Dhruv which will replace Cheetah, Chetak and the assortment of Russian helicopters is better. It has taken off 30 years after its conception. India will need atleast 1000 such multi-role helicopters for all the three services, the price level of which is 10-15 crores a piece. An effort is being made to sell it abroad. A delegation led by the CAS visited Chile to seek orders in Oct 2004. In the meantime, negotiations were on to purchase a squadron of attack helicopters (MI 15) from Russia with night flying and night fighting capabilities as the existing attack helicopter squadrons with the IAF lacked such capability. Probably, the new acquisitions already stand inducted.

As regards the PLA and the PAF: The Chinese Air Force has no dearth of pilots. They have created twice the numbers required in a squadron. Thus, creating a 100% reserve. However, their problem was aircraft. Sometime ago, of their nearly 4, 970 aircraft, 50% or so were either non effective or plain non functional. Then come the negotiations with Russia to buy SU 27 or SU 30 and joint ventures. Today, it is reported that the PLA has 700xSU 27/30, 300xF7s, a couple of hundred of J8/10 and the latest FC 1, a joint Sino-Pak venture which has been tested recently. Thus with upwards of 1500 or so combat aircraft, an air refuelling capability they are well poised to operate from bases in Tibet. Beijing is however finding it difficult to replace or upgrade its aircraft. But then, it is better off with its medium range missiles which can cover India's northeastern states and areas right upto Jamshedpur.

The PAF with a manpower of nearly 45,000 and 430 or so combat aircraft of Chinese, US and French origin, has also been scouting for fighters to compensate for non-delivery of 28xF 16s from the US. It has since then purchased 50xMirage 111 (Second hand) from Australia, a large number of F7s, nearly 95 from China and has been negotiating with France to buy 40xMirage 2000-5 to fill the void. While the US is once again considering to sell F 16s to Pakistan. In addition, the PAF has nuclear capability in the shape of F 16s (three squadrons), Mirage 2000 whose reach extends upto Agra, Kanpur, Jabalpore from Sargodha and is seeking Phalcon killers from China, AWACs from the US and searching for atleast 60 more fighters to balance its strength against the IAF.

It is worth noting that the sale of three P3 Orions-which India is also trying to buy from the US, jamming devices, Harpoon and AIM missiles, electronic warfare equipment and other gadgets for night operations, part of a 368 million dollar arms aid package by the US, already given, has given a distinct advantage to the PAF by enhancing its surveillance capability.

What conclusions can be drawn from the above brief scenario? On top of IAF's problem areas appears to be the need to replace its ageing fleet. Sixteen of its squadrons, one believers, are already due for retirement. If all goes well, Mig 21s will be replaced with SU 30s. The first of this series is scheduled to roll out from the HAL towards the first half of 2005. But this will need strict monitoring. Further, the navigation systems of its Jaguars are to be upgraded. It is after a number of accidents (100 pilots killed with 221 MiG crashes between 1991-2001) that the induction of 60 AJTs from the UK, at a cost of 6000 crores was approved by the CCS last year after a delay and debate for nearly 20 long years. Further, the IAF must have indigenous RPVs (remotely piloted vehicles) which are currently being purchased at a colossal cost from Israel.

Thus it is clear that insufficient attention has been paid to the many projects India and initiated in the past. Besides the delay in production of LCA and ALH, there have been avoidable slips in producing Aakash, Prithvi and Trishul missiles. Further, the Russian SAM 111 (Pachora) ground to air defence systems purchased in the 70s is already more than 30 years old and would need replacement.

Stealth is now the key to future fighters. It is believed that the air battles of future will take place beyond the visual range. And PGMs (Precision Guided Munitions) help do that. In addition, aircraft will need to match future developments in missile warfare. There is an endless list of future technical developments which need to be researched by the DRDO, IAF and other technical talent that the Nation has.

One issue is clear. India will have to display a political will of an exceptional order to make its Air Force self-reliant. In the process, it will have to stand up to the global arms market strategies which recognise no principles of morality. Foreign arms manufacturers, in their pursuit to sell products like the aircraft, missiles and other defence hardware do not hesitate to promote regional conflicts through proxy wars or an arms race. This battle as such cannot be fought without long range planning, a positive fillip to the ongoing projects, research and professional assertiveness by senior commanders. Should we fail to recognise this, IAFs dependence on foreign countries will continue to increase.

What prompted Musharraf to release Zardari

By Atul Cowshish

First the world learnt of the 'imminent' release of Asif Zardari, husband of twice dismissed Prime Minister of Pakistan, Benazir Bhutto, after eight years in prison and then word was leaked that General Parvez Musharraf, the self-appointed President of Pakistan, had telephoned few days earlier the man he had thrown out of power, Nawaz Sharif, in a coup in October 1999, ostensibly to express his regrets that the exiled PM was not able to attend his father's funeral. Within a span of about two weeks, the Pakistani Fuehrer had reached out to the two principal opposition figures of Pakistan after showing utter contempt for them because of their alleged avarice and other corrupt ways.

Zardari's release from his long incarceration, however, had begun to look imminent when one after the other he successfully obtained bail in most of the 15 cases instituted against him since 1996. Once famous as 'Mr ten percent'-- a reference to the allegation that he had a ten percent cut in all deals entered into by the Government headed by his wife--Zardari faced many criminal charges, including those relating to taking bribes, and has also been accused of being part of a conspiracy to murder his wife's brother, Murtaza who was himself quite a flamboyant character in the true Bhutto fashion.

Zardari made two journeys to prison, on each occasion after the dismissal of his wife's Government (in 1993 and 1996) on corruption charges. When he was first arrested one of the charges against him was that he had tied a remote-controlled bomb to the leg of a UK-based Pakistani businessman while trying to extract his share in a pay-off. Before he married Bhutto, this Polo-playing son of a small-time businessman of Sindh had acquired the reputation of a playboy but had shown no interest in a political career.

He apparently suffered some serious health problems during the course of his imprisonment. He is said to be diabetic, has a spinal problem and cannot walk without a stick. In fact, at the time of his release he was in hospital.

With his wife opting to stay out of the country because of a fiat by Gen Musharraf that she would be arrested on her arrival to stand trial on corruption charges, Zardari had become something of a rallying point for the PPP workers. Though there is no clear indication that he retains that position, the Government of the day obviously thinks that making a conciliatory gesture towards the Bhutto family would go down well within the leading mainstream opposition party.

The gestures made by Musharraf were interpreted in some quarters as a signal for ushering in an era of reconciliation in Pakistan after five years of confrontation with the so-called secular opposition parties. However, political circles in Pakistan were talking about surreptitious negotiations with the PPP and the Bhuttos for some time now. Zardari is said to have admitted that there has been talks with the representatives of the Government but these, he insists, had nothing to do with his release. Not many buy the last part of his assertion, even though Zardari has said that he will fight against 'the establishment'. Almost from the time of the 1999 coup, much of the PPP energy and efforts have been devoted to securing the release of Zardari. So there is every possibility that his 'release' is the result of a secret deal between him/PPP and the Musharraf Government.

Even a cursory glance at Musharraf's career will show that he makes calculated moves in self-interest and with an eye on PR. His capacity to take U-turns and disowning his own words is unlimited, as Indians would readily recall given his frequent hot and cold statements on Kashmir. Yes, there is a credibility problem with the lisping General who walks with a well-rehearsed swagger.

A Minister loyalist of Musharraf's was reported as having said that the release of Zardari will 'play an important role in creating an atmosphere of reconciliation' in his country. Yes, but what the Pakistani Minister in question, a comic figure who quickly changes his threatening sonatas to serenades of peace depending on how the Fuehrer has spoken of the 'enemy', tried to hide was the fact that 'reconciliation' may well hold the key to the Government's survival and smooth ride.

When Musharraf deposed Nawaz Sharif-- on a thoroughly concocted charge that the then PM was trying to bump him off---there was much support for him among the people of Pakistan who had got tired of colossus corruption of the political classes. The period of honeymoon lasted beyond the famous U-turn by the General on the question of supporting terrorism and fundamentalism. But over the last year or so, the disenchantment with Musharraf has been growing within Pakistan and people have begun to see him as a power-hungry General who, like his military predecessors in the Presidential House, has no intention of allowing democracy to take roots in the country.

When the main opposition parties, the Pakistan People's Party of Benazir Bhutto, and the Pakistan Muslim League of Nawaz Sharif, refused to be ensnared by him despite his success in luring sections of them Musharraf turned to the religious extremists for support. That was really an easy exercise because the Pakistan army's ISI has always maintained a close link with the fundamentalist and extremist elements in pursuit of the policy of launching a jihad against India (and for a brief period against a pro-Soviet regime in Afghanistan). Things would have gone on well for Musharraf but for the American demand that the jehadi types in Pakistan be bottled up if not exterminated in the interest of the US.

The Mullahs who had lent their support to Musharraf when he defied the country's constitution and held on to two jobs--the army chief as well head of the state--- became restive. They feared that if Musharraf carried out the American diktats in letter and spirit they may have to close shop. Musharraf tried to retain their favour by assuring them that he would not hinder their pursuit of 'holy' war against India. But the Mullahs could scarcely trust a man who had told them solemnly, that he would give up his uniform by the end of this year and then said with a straight face that he wouldn't.

So, Musharraf had no choice but to turn to the very people he detested so much. The question now is whether the 'freedom' given to Zardari is a prelude to Benazir's return to Pakistan. Besides, being a clever man that he is he would not like to see Ms Bhutto back without her political betenoire Nawaz Sharif also being present in the country to engage her in a constant battle on home turf. Much will depend on the shape that emerges from the confrontation that is building up between Musharraf and his one-time friends in the religious extremist classes.

If the General feels threatened by the Mullahs he would not mind unleashing Begum Bhutto on the Mullahs and probably also rope in Nawaz Sharif to check mate the bearded fanatics who can disrupt his profitable cohabitation with the Americans, particularly President George W Bush whose generosity towards Pakistan rockets by the day. (Syndicate Features)