Daily Excelsior...Business

Sugar, edible oils bullion dip on weak global upcountry advice .....

Dalgaon returning to normal after Thursday’s massacre .....

Gartner revises PC shipments forecast .....

Inflation reverts below 5 pc at 4.96 .....

India INC confidence soars to new high: NCAER

NEW DELHI, Nov 9: Improved expectations of overall economic conditions, excellent corporate results and bumper kharif harvest have pushed the confidence of India INC to a new high with the quarterly business confidence index jumping by 3.5 per cent to a new high of 129.4 in October 2003.

According to the quarterly Business Expectation Survey (BES) conducted by the National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCEAR), the domestic feel good factors were backed by external factors like stable global environment with both the United States and Japanese economy showing revival tendencies which pushed the index significantly from July’s figure of 125.7.

Even the macro-economic indicators support the mood with the RBI also jacking up GDP growth estimates to 6.5-7 per cent from the earlier forecast of six per cent.

The NCAER survey, based on 580 responses from companies, however reveals that there had not been any major improvement in the investment climate and capacity utilisation of companies.

According to it, among regions, east seems to be the most bullish about economic prospects. "The other three show a downturn," NCAER said.

The economy think-tank said companies in the consumer non-durable sector were relatively more optimistic. On the other hand, companies having revenue between Rs 100-500 crore do not share the general optimism, which is in spite of an improvement in business confidence, it said.

The study revealed that public sector firms had turned more optimistic in the current round, even as their business outlook continued to be cautious.

"At the firm level, the change in the scale of operations, adoption of technology, restructuring of marketing chain, introduction of higher it in management and supply network — all gathered pace in the new millennium as compared to the second half of the 90’s," the survey found out.

The business expectation survey said a large proportion of bigger firms, in general, indicated gain in productivity more than smaller firms due to efficiency enhancing measures undertaken by them in the new millennium.

However, it said firms did not expect any change in their sales or exports volume in the next six months.

It pointed out that relatively more firms were looking to hire casual/permanent labour force in the current round as compared to the previous round.

The October bes is based on responses carried out during September and October. The sample or the respondents have been spread over regions, sectors and size class of firms.

The survey was based on four questions relating to overall economic conditions, financial position of the firms, capacity utilisation and investment climate. All the four questions carried equal weight and a weighted Business Confidence Index (BCI) was arrived at based on sectoral level responses. (UNI)

Final guidelines on unified licence in a day or two

NEW DELHI, Nov 9: Government will issue final guidelines on single licence for basic and cellular services in a day or two to enforce the unified licence regime under which Reliance would be asked to pay about three crore less than TRAI’s recommendation of Rs 1581 crore, for becoming eligible to offer full mobility on its WLL phones.

"Guidelines will be issued in a day or two. TRAI had given an indicative calculation of licence fee to be paid by basic service providers for migrating to new regime and the final calculation has to come from the licensor (DOT)," TRAI chairman Pradip Baijal told PTI.

With the final guidelines in place this week, the payment of additional entry and penal interest, if any, would have to be, made upfront along with the request on plain paper for migration to unified access services licence.

On receipt of the request along with the requisite payments, DOT will carry out actual calculations and will intimate the different of amount, if any, based on actual calculation, to the concerned applicant, which shall have to be paid within 3 working days from the date of receipt of demand failing which the application would be rejected and the amounts paid by the applicant shall be refunded within a period of 15 days, draft set of guidelines say.

However, no interest shall be paid by DOT for the amounts deposited for migration to unified access service licence.

The licence fee, service area, roll out obligations and performance bank guarantee under the unified access service licence would be same as for the existing cellular service providers.

Network growth in rural areas, as per the draft guidelines, would be met through Universal Service Obligation (USO) fund and funding from Access Deficit Charge (ADC) regime, where applicable.

According to draft set of guidelines, licensor (DOT) reserves the right to modify the guidelines or incorporate new guidelines considered necessary in the interest of national security, public interest, consumer interest and for proper conduct of telegraph service.

The cellular operators have been given an option to offer limited mobility facility at appropriate tariffs through concepts such as home-zone operations under the new licencing regime.

According to guidelines, those basic operators who do not wish to migrate to the full mobility regime, would only be required to pay the additional fee for WLL mobile with mobility confined strictly within local call area known as Short Distance Charging Area (SDCA). (PTI)

CII revises growth estimates upwards to 7.2 per cent

NEW DELHI, Nov 9: Expectations of higher agriculture output and strong industry performance have led Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) to revise its growth forecast for 2003-04 to 7.2 per cent.

The chamber, which had earlier projected growth between 6.5 per cent and 6.8 per cent, has revised Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to 7.2 per cent in its state of the economy report for quarter ending September 2003.

"This upward revision in growth to 7.2 per cent is due to excellent monsoons, higher expected foodgrain output and agricultural income, and significantly better performance of the industrial, manufacturing and service sectors," Dr Omkar Goswami, the Chief Economist of CII said.

Agriculture and allied activities account for approximately 24 per cent of GDP and CII predicts this sector to grow at 7.5 per cent.

According to the industry association, this is not an optimistic prediction - given that there was a significant reduction in agricultural output because of the drought in 2002-03, and that the growth would be over a smaller base. "Indeed, given decent rains in the winter months, it is quite possible that agricultural growth could exceed eight per cent," Dr Goswami said.

The industrial sector - which consists of mining, manufacturing, electricity and construction - accounts for around 26 per cent of GDP and according to CII, this sector is expected to grow at 6.3 per cent for 2003-04. "Order books of companies in the manufacturing sector are more full than they have been in the last four years," he added.

First half of the current fiscal’s revenues have been higher than before, profitability is up and there is a general sense of optimism - which has been reflected in CII s latest business outlook survey released last week.

The services sector - which now accounts for half of India’s GDP- is expected to grow by 7.5 per cent. "For eight of the last ten years, in good years as well as in bad, the services sector has registered growth in excess of seven per cent, and has often crossed eight per cent," said Dr Goswami.

"Therefore, we at CII see no reason why the services sector should not grow by at least 7.5 per cent in a year as good as 2003-04."

Agriculture will contribute 1.8 per cent growth to the overall GDP - 7.5 per cent agricultural growth multiplied by a weight of 24 per cent. Industry will contribute 1.6 per cent to GDP - 6.3 per cent growth multiplied by a weight of 26 per cent. Services will contribute 3.75 per cent to GDP - 7.5 per cent growth multiplied by 50 per cent.

"To sustain this excellent growth in the future, India needs to focus on accelerating the process of economic reforms and to concentrate on building infrastructure.

"If this growth impetus continues for the next two quarters, India will be seeing the beginning of a much needed investment cycle - as companies start building larger capacities to meet greater demand," he said. (UNI)

India INC bullish on country’s economic performance

NEW DELHI, Nov 9: Corporate India is bullish on all fronts, especially the country’s economic performance, mirrorring the RBI’s forecast from six per cent growth to 6.5 to seven per cent growth this fiscal, with demand being no longer a constraint and the performance of the heavy industry improving.

FICCI’s business confidence survey for the quarter July to September, shows the renewed corporate confidence in based on the return of the feel-good factor and revival of investment activity as reflected in the substantial improvement of the heavy industry sector.

The heavy industry is most upbeat about its current performance with 88 per cent and is followed by services 82 per cent and light industry 58 per cent, the survey based on a sample of 564 companies shows.

The highlights of the survey was released here today by FICCI secretary general Dr Amit Mitra.

He said the jump of 24 percentage in the case of heavy industry was noteworthy.

Light industry was looking foward to the coming six months with great enthusiasm with 71 per cent expecting a "moderately to substantially" better performance.

Mr Mitra said the current conditions index, the expectations index and the overall business confidence index were in the "significantly optimistic" range concomitantly. The overall business confidence index had jumped up to 76.2 from 71.3 per cent, an increase of 6.9 per cent.

According to the survey, the industry sector grew by 5.6 per cent, the highest for the period for the last three years. In the same period, the manufacturing sector growth surged by 6.2 per cent — the highest over the past four years. While the manufacturing sector has turned out a buoyant performance, the mining and the electricity sectors had performed poorly.

Dr Mitra said a majority of the respondents preferred gaining sustainable competititve edge through improved infrastructure and reduced transaction costs and not thorugh RBI intervention. While 46 per cent felt that the appreciating rupee was having an impact on India’s expoorts, another 39 per cent opined that the rupee’s strength could not be blamed for the slowdown in India’s exports in the current fiscal.

Interestingly, of the 46 per cent who seemed concerned about the rupee exchange rate movement, about 48 per cent wanted the RBI to intervene and slow down rupee’s upward movement. (UNI)

Indian American designs world’s third
fastest supercomputer

HOUSTON, Nov 9: Virginia tech’s scientists led by a 30 year old Indian American Assistant Professor of Computer Science, Dr Srinidhi Varadarajan have amazed the computing industry by putting together the world’s third fastest supercomputer in a record time of three months, and at record low cost of 5.2 million dollars, using off-the-shelf components.

Most other machines of its class cost upward of 40 million dollars and take years to assemble. Japan’s earth simulator, the number one supercomputer, is said to have cost at least 350 million dollars. The terascale cluster project is bringing virginia tech to the forefront in the supercomputing arena.

A supercomputer made from 1,100 dual-processor power MAC G5S, nicknamed by some as "big MAC" ranks third among the world’s 500 fastest supercomputers, many of which handle with ease one trillion calculations per second.

The top 500 is twice-a-year listing started in 1993 to provide a "who’s who" of hot computers, spotting and tracking trends in high-performance computing. The ranking by the top 500 project will be officially announced later this month at the supercomputing conference in phoenix.

"This is arguably the cheapest supercomputer and is definitely the most powerful home-built supercomputer," according to Dr Varadarajan. Theoretically, big MAC could handle a potential 17 teraflops, or 17 trillion operations per second. That still falls short of the no. 1 machine, Japan’s earth simulator, whose 5,000-plus pr ocessors keep it on top with 35.8 teraflops, with the potential of another five teraflops.

So far, the Japanese earth simulator that computes at around 35 teraflops holds the record for the fastest machine. This is followed by two other supercomputers at the Los Alamos national laboratory, and the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, both dedicated to weapons design, and running at between 7 and 9 teraflops, according to a widely-accepted ratings list maintained by "big MAC".

The system’s architect, Srinidhi Varadarajan, says "the newly completed supercomputer operates at 9.55 trillion operations a second, or 9.55 teraflops". The latest number will not go lower, and may go even higher, Varadarajan says. System optimisation is nerly finished, but "we still have a few more tricks," he says. "We’re hoping for a 10 per cent boost, hopefully shortly."

"Our goal at the terascale computing facility is to build a world-class supercomputer to enable big science and engineering research at a price well below any comparable centre", Vardarajan says noting "we expect this facility to be a powerful model for universities around the world to emulate".

According to Varadarajan, "it all started when the school wrote for a grant to build a new machine to replace a 200-node system which was becoming too small for its computing needs. When the proposal was being finalised, Apple came out with its new 64-bit G-5 MAC which the team found to its liking.

The new dean of Virginia tech gave permission to proceed to build the supercomputer during the Dean’s first day on the job. Varadarajan ordered the G5S three days after Apple computer announced them, and key software was written in a matter of weeks."

Varadarajan reveals that in adition to the G5, he’d also considered using advanced micro devices’ opteron and Intel’s Itanium II processors. "But the opteron was too expensive and the Itanium too slow".

Varadarajan says he received quotesfrom dell and a couple of other PC manufacturers, whose prices ranged between 10 million dollars and 12 million dollars. "Then Apple announced the G5," Varadarajan said. Before the F5 cluster, he’d never touched a mac. "They (apple) were in AG bit of a shock," he says. "They assumed I was some kind of MAC fan, but I’d never used a MAC before."

The cluster was assembled in less than a month by hundreds of student volunteers who were paid only in soda and pizza for their labour. They ate between 600 and 700 pizzas, Vvaradarajan estimates.

According to dean of the Virginia tech’s college of engineering, Prof Hassan Aref, "the peope working this groundbreaking project pulled off miracles, raising glass ceilings and opening locked doors". (PTI)

COAI plea against TDSAT judgement to be heard today

NEW DELHI, Nov 9: Cellular operators’ petitions against the Telecom Tribunal majority judgement upholding the legality of WLL(M) services will come up for hearing in the Supreme Court tomorrow.

A bench of Chief Justice V N Khare and Mr Justice S V Sinha on Friday had listed three appeals for hearing before a bench headed by Mr Justice S Rajendra Babu tomorrow.

Former Finance Minister P Chidambaram along with former Law Minister Ram Jethmelani is representing Cellular Operators Association of India (COAI) in the Apex Court.

A three-Judge bench of the Telecom Dispute Settlement Appellate Tribunal (TDSAT) in a majority judgement on August 8 had allowed basic operators to offer WLL (M) services.

Mr Justice R U S Prasad and Mr Justice P R Dasgupta had said allowing wll service with limited mobility would be in the best interest of the telecom sector and consumers at large in the country.

However, TDSAT chairman D P Wadhwa had ordered,’’the decision of the Government granting limited mobility in wireless local loop and allowing handsets to the subscribers of fixed line operators is set aside.’’

COAI had appealed the Apex Court last month to uphold the minority judgement of the TDSAT as it was the correct interpretation of NTP-99.

Justice Wadhwa’s view was "the first definitive pronouncement in relation to the rights of the licencee and the obligation of a licensor and as to whether Government as a licensor can unilaterally and arbitrarily alter the basic and fundamental terms of the licence agreement," one of the petitions by COAI said.

While the majority judgement had upheld the legality of WLL (M) services, it had also asked the authorities to confine these services within Short Distance Charging Area (SDCA).

The Government has already taken steps to enforce the directive. The Department of Telecom (DOT) had sent a notice to Reliance infocomm to take corrective measures within 30 days to limit its services within SDCA. If the steps are not taken within a month, the company would be given additional 60 days after which its license would be terminated.

Reliance infocomm is basically asked to refrain from offering multi-registration facilities for its subscribers, providing over-the-air authentication through #444 facilities and allowing handset outside SDCA.

While all this time coai had asked the department of telecom to enforce the majority judgement of TDSAT to confine WLL (M) services within SDCA, it had clarified that its demand is not "prejudicial" to its right to challenge the judgement. And that is precisely what it has done.

Speculations were rife that COAI would withdraw its petitions in response to the association of basic telecom operators’ decision to take back its appeal in the Supreme Court against imposition of additional entry fee on WLL (M) operators.

However, a recent meeting of the COAI newly elected executive council did not even discuss the issue. "The appeals will be taken to its logical conclusion," COAI Director General T V Ramchandran told UNI here. (UNI)

Assam tea industry languishes tea producers for other biz

NEW DELHI, Nov 9: Hit hard by the stiff competition from tea imports from Sri Lanka, China and Vietnam, the traditional tea industry in Assam, employing more than 10 lakh people, is struggling for its survival and forcing producers to give up tea plantation.

The tea producers from Assam have lodged their protest against the import of tea and demanded a ban on imports to save the tea gardens from closure.

The Government has levied 100 per cent import duty on tea, but this has barely touched the fringe of the problem, forcing some tea producers to switch over to other business.

The closure of tea gardens will not only adversely affect the economy of Assam, but it will also give rise to many political and social problems there, according to former Union Miniter and Assam PCC president Pawan Singh Ghatowar.

Mr Ghatowar told UNI here that if the tea producers switched over to other business, the workers dependent on the tea gardens for their livelihood would be rendered jobless. Against a payment of Rs 10 to 12 as wages, the workers are now getting only Rs 6 to 7.

The tea growers had their hey day as long as the tea produced in Assam was patronised by the British buyers. They no longer find the changed situation favourable to grow tea and, therefore, want remunerative price for their produce to save the 170-year-old industry.

Urging the Government to adopt a long-term policy for the tea industry to save it from languishing, Mr Ghatowar said the Government should come out with a better marketing system for tea.

Adding to the woes of the tea growers of Assam, according to Mr Ghatowar, is the threat of extortion from the ULFA.

Stating that the tea producers of Assam were regarded as soft targets by ULFA terrorists, the Congress MP said some traders were recently killed by the terrorists. On the increasing threat perception, the State Government had provided protection and personal guards receiving threats from terrorists. (UNI)

Sugar, edible oils bullion dip on weak global
upcountry advice

MUMBAI, Nov 9: Bullion, sugar, edible oils including groundnut raw, palmolein and its seeds prices faced a setback owing to sustained heavy offerings by stockists in view of a weak global and upcountry advice during the week ended on November 8, traders at the commodity markets here said.

Gold silver major crashed on weak London advice. Standard mint gold 99.5 purity grade and gold 99.9 purity variety resumed lower by Rs 5 each to Rs 5,755 and Rs 5,795 per ten Gm respectively on November 3 (Monday) on lack of fresh demand mainly from jewellers.

Later part of last week witnessed both prices fluctuating which finally drifted lower and crashed by Rs 35 for standard mint gold and gold 99.9 variety by Rs 35 per ten Gm during the week.

Standard mint gold and gold 99.9 purities grades closed low at Rs 5,725 and Rs 5,765 per ten Gm respectively on the week-ended on November 8, 2003, bullion merchant said.

Traders attributed that the bearish trend to sustained heavy offloading by stockists in the view of subdued advice from global markets like London, Hongkong and New York centres. There was some profit-booking by big operators, the traders said, adding there was weak advice from Ahmedabad, Indore, Delhi, Kolkata and other centres.

At the London bullion market, gold was quoted low around at 380.15/381.45 an ounce on November 6, down from New York’s last quoted level of 383.25/384.55 on a technical pullback on week-ended November 1, 2003 which caused the downward trend in domestic prices, traders pointed out.

Similarly, silver .999 fineness grade was opened on November 3, at higher level at Rs 8,340 per Kg on scattered demand from local industrial users, traders said.

Silver .999 fineness grade was finally eased by Rs 30 during the week and the white metal price closed at Rs 8,200 per Kg in line with yellow metal prices. Silver declined at around 4.98/4.99 per troy ounce on November 6, compared with 5.10/5.12 per troy ounce from the previous week-ended on October 31, 2003, at the global markets, traders added. (UNI)

Dalgaon returning to normal after Thursday’s massacre

JALPAIGURI, Nov 9: Dalgaon tea estate, about 70 Kms from here, is fast returning to normal after Thursday’s massacre in which nineteen people were burnt alive.

Official sources said the garden, owned by the RNT plantation company, was reopened yesterday recording a good margin of attendance.Full attendance was expected from Monday onwards, sources added.

All the charred bodies were buried at the banks of Sukti river near Birpara, some three Kms from the scene of crime amid high police security. The bodies were first taken to Alipurduar last evening where some samples were collected for the DNA test. The DNA test to confirm the identity of the victims, officials said.

Meanwhile, the labourers of the estate had assembled at the local market, which normally starts at sunset in the estate’s premises, and pruchased daily rations as ususal.

However, the security forces were continuing the vigil. (UNI)

Gartner revises PC shipments forecast

NEW DELHI, Nov 9: Encouraged by sales in third quarter, it research firm gartner inc has revised its projections for growth in shipment of personal computers for 2003 upwards.

Earlier, gartner had projected that pc shipments in 2003 will grow by 8.3 per cent year-on-year but due to strong growth in third quarter the research firm now says that total worldwide PC shipments will be 164.3 million units this year, a 10.9 per cent increase from 2002.

The company has also increased its projections for fourth quarter PC shipments.

Worldwide PC shipments will total 47.2 million units in the fourth quarter of 2003, a 12.4 per cent increase from the same period last year, according to Gartner forecasts.

"Third quarter PC sales were stronger than had been expected, led largely by the home and small business markets. We see this as an encouraging sign and have increased our forecast for the fourth quarter of 2003 as well as the year-end projections. But we remain cautious in our overall outlook," said Gartner.

Gartner, however, says that lacklusture demand from corporates with the notable exception of Europe, fragile home PC market and other factors could inhibot growth.

Home market sales in the US market, despite showing strong growth in the third quarter of 2003, could prove fragile in the coming quarters, especially because its recent growth May have been driven by temporary factors like recent tax rebates and lower tax withholdings.

In the strong third quarter of 2003, the Japanese home market appears to have been heavily influenced by early new model introductions in advance of Japan’s new pc recycling law, which became effective 1 October. This may not continue to influence sales for long.

Uncertain world economic environment also remains a cause of worry as far as PC shipments go. (UNI)

Inflation reverts below 5 pc at 4.96

NEW DELHI, Nov 9: Decline in prices of essential items, including vegetables and fruits, pulled down the wholesale prices-based inflation rate by 0.05 per cent to 4.96 per cent during the week ended October 25 against 5.01 per cent during the previous period.

The inflation rate, in fact, came back close to where it stood during the week ended October 11. It was 4.95 per cent that week and 5.08 per cent during October 4, exhibiting a roller coaster ride for the month of October.

The rate stood at 3.14 per cent during the same period last year.

The rate is still higher than the prediction of the Reserve Bank of India in its mid-term credit policy. The Central Bank has predicted the rate to be between 4-4.5 per cent this fiscal.

However, the rate is within the expectation of the Government. Chief Economic Advisor to the Finance Minister Ashok Lahiri had forecast that it would fall below 5 per cent for the current financial year.

The wholesale price index (base 1993-94) fell by 0.1 per cent to 175.8 per cent during the week.

While the price of Bajra was down five per cent, fruits and vegetables were lower by four per cent each. Maize and moong fell by 2 per cent each. Other items in the food articles group like poultry and chicken rose by two per cent each. The index for the group declined by 1.1 per cent.

In the non-food articles group, raw rubber was higher by 9 per cent, while gingelly seed and sunflower were up 3 per cent. Soyabean, on the other hand, declined by six per cent, while cotton seed and fodder fell by 3 per cent. The index for the category rose by 0.1 per cent.

The index for fuel, power, light and lubricants remained unchanged at previous week’s level of 253 points.

Among manufactured products, solvent extracted groundnut oil declined by 8 per cent, while epoxy resins went up by 25 per cent, and bidi was higher by nine per cent. The index for this category was up 0.1 per cent.

The final inflation rate remained intact at the provisional estimate of 3.88 per cent for the week ended August 30 and the wholesale price index at 174 points. (UNI)