Mufti's healing touch hurts Pakistan and Hurriyat

By Ghazanfar Butt

The progress in implementing the ‘healing touch’ policy of Mufti Mohammed Sayeed, the Chief Minister of Jammu and Kashmir, has been steady. The Chief Minister has been trying his best to ensure that the counter-insurgency operations of the Security Forces cause as little inconvenience to the people as possible. The Special Operations Group of the Jammu and Kashmir Police has been restructured, the Border Security Force is gradually being replaced by the Central Reserve Police, and the special committee set up to review the cases of detainees has met and decided to release twenty-six persons.

The relations between the Centre and the State have remained cordial, in spite of political differences.

Responding positively to the suggestion of the State Government, the Centre appointed Mr N. N. Vohra as the new interlocutor to start discussions with the State Government and all political and other groups in the State. Mr Vohra’s appointment has been widely welcomed and it is hoped that a solution to the problems in Jammu and Kashmir will evolve soon.

These developments have not been to the liking of Pakistan. Though Chief Minister Mufti has been scrupulously correct in saying that while the talks between the Centre and the various groups in the State are designed to bring some order to the internal situation in the State, the Government of India will have to start a dialogue with Pakistan at a time of its own choosing. But Pakistan knows that any improvement in the internal situation in the State will be to its disadvantage. There has been a concerted campaign to put the clock back. There was violence in Poonch on March 14, when terrorists fired indiscriminately from Anand Hotel .In the operations conducted by the Police, one terrorist was killed and all the persons trapped inside the hotel were rescued. The Deputy Superintendent of Police and three others were killed in the operations. This incident was closely followed by an attack on the police post in the Gool area of Udhampur on March 15, in which eleven persons, including nine policemen were killed. Four policemen were kidnapped and a considerable stock of arms and ammunition was taken away. Two of the kidnapped policemen were killed and the other two managed to escape. On March 16, the Security Forces conducted combing operations in Bhaderwah, in which six militants of the Hizbul Mujahideen, including its district commander, were killed.

The attack on the Jammu and Kashmir Police in Jammu region has made the Government of Mufti Mohammed Sayeed vulnerable. Mufti has been able to occupy the Chief Ministers’ Office on the ground that it was the Kashmir valley which was the problem area, and the people’s verdict in the Valley should be honoured. The violence in the Jammu region has opened many wounds. The commotion in the Assembly on March 16 was expected.

To put more pressure on Mufti, the Hurriyat Conference members visited New Delhi and met Congress President Sonia Gandhi and many political leaders including former Prime Ministers Inder Gujral and V. P. Singh. Mirwaiz Omar Farooq is reported to have complained to Sonia Gandhi, that the Central and State Governments were interfering in the running of the madrassas. The steps taken by Mufti to modernize the madrassas were hurting them. He perhaps felt the Congress President would direct the Mufti Government to change its policies. Reports do not indicate any response received from Sonia Gandhi.

During their interaction with Inder Gujral, the Hurriyat leaders wanted the Centre to follow the 'Nagaland Model' and that the Prime Minister should directly talk to them. Also the Hurriyet wanted to be intermediaries in talks with Pakistan. Mr Gujral is reported to have rid the Hurriyat leaders of their illusions and told them clearly that the Centre could directly talk to Pakistan under the Shimla Agreement when it chose to and that they should first talk to N. N. Vohra. He is reported to have questioned them whether they were in a position to stop violence in Jammu and Kashmir like the NSCN in Nagaland.

The Mirwaiz even addressed the congregation at Jama Masjid complaining against the State Government's policies and gave an interview to the Pakistan paper Jang complaining against Government's interference in the running of religious seminaries and mosques in Kashmir. The Mirwaiz should know that in Pakistan --according to official figures -- approximately 1,000 mosques have been attacked and desecrated during the past five years as a result of communal and sectarian differences (Aijaazz Ahmed, Asia Times)

The Mirwaiz and other Hurriyet leaders also made a desperate effort to meet the envoys of Britain, Canada and other Moslem countries to apprise them of the ‘atrocities’ being committed in Kashmir. The advice given to them was that the Hurriyet Conference should join the mainstream and make an effort to combat violence in the State.

These activities by Hurriyat leaders are seen by the people as an attempt to be relevant in the State. When K. C. Pant was appointed Central interlocutor, the Hurriyat Conference did not consider him important enough and refused to meet him. They wanted to visit Pakistan and then consider meeting the Prime Minister. Now, they perhaps have reservations in talking to N. N. Vohra along with other groups in the State. Deputy Prime Minister Advani has made it clear that N. N. Vohra could meet the Hurriyat leaders.

It is unlikely that the Centre will change its policies because of the spurt in violence. If at all the events will unite the people to make concerted efforts to rid the state of the mercenaries from Pakistan. General Musharraf has been ‘persuaded’ by the United States to be part of the war against Iraq. As far as Afghanistan is concerned there is pressure on the Pakistan Army to conduct joint operations against Al Qaida on the Pakistan-Afghan border. For the first time, the ISI made a desperate attempt to brief the newsmen as to how it had captured the Al Qaida leader and mastermind behind the September 11 attacks Khalid Sheikh Mohammad earlier during the month. People in Pakistan credit the CIA with having captured the noted Al Qaida commander.

The attention of the world is going to be focused on Iraq for the next few weeks – if not months. There will be a desperate attempt by forces from across the border to step up violence in Jammu and Kashmir.

It is up to the people of the State to see that the effort to step up violence ends like the last flicker of a flame. The healing touch will heal. (ADNI)

Indigensation, equipment upgrades with outside help

By Maj Gen U. S. Upreti

According to Defence Minister George Fernandes, India in tends to create a world-class industrial base capable of producing state-of-the-art armaments at competitive prices. The minister has invited top international arms companies to join in partnership for producing such armaments, which could then be marketed through joint strategies. This would result in India becoming a global arms exporter. The collaborators would benefit from India’s sound technology base, expertise and cheap labour, which would drastically reduce their overall costs. Even as the home media went to town supporting Mr Fernandes, by referring to the nearly 22 country, including the US, the UK, Russia, Israel and France, participation at the Aero-India 2003 show at Bangalore, the discerning were not deceived. The minister’s talk is more of a pipedream than reality.

For example, during the heady days of economic liberalisation in 1992, Defence Minister Sharad Pawar had similarly called for foreign and private sectors collaboration, and had declared that India’s defence exports for 1992-93 would cross the Rs 1,000 crore mark. According to the Defence Ministry’s annual report for 2001-2002, the Defence Public Sector Undertaking (DPSUs) and ordnance factories exported items worth Rs 66 crore, as against the target of Rs 178 crore. The Confederation of Indian Industry, which took Mr Pawar seriously, has come around to the view that India neither has the right infrastructure nor the political will to strengthen its indigenous military industrial base.

The very least that this requires is a four-pronged action. One, there is a need to understand some home truths. India’s 39 ordnance factories (one more is coming up at Nalanda, Bihar) and eight DPSUs, with the exception of Bharat Electronic Limited, are running in losses. These are under-utilised and over-staffed. Umpteen internal reports have suggested a need for radical changes including massive lay-offs. Two, the Defence Research and Development Organisation is a sniggering matter among the international research community. None of its high profile items have ever fructified. It requires urgent across-the-board technical audit. Three, the defence production and supplies department under the Defence Ministry is organisationally flawed. One example would suffice to make the point. The Directorate General of Quality Assurance (DGQA), which certifies, an indigenous product’s quality, works under the secretary, defence production, who is responsible for manufacturing the product. It stands to reason that the DGQA would rather certify a sub-standard product to be given to the army than annoy his boss.

And last, there is a need for rationalisation of the strategic and non-strategic armaments’ list. Most of the items, which should fall in the non-strategic category and be open for discussion with the private sector, and foreign collaborators if available, are listed under the restricted strategic category. It is indeed presumptuous of the Government to conclude that an Indian business house or a reputed international arms company would venture forth with massive investments, without knowledge of a comprehensive business plan. The moot question however, is why did the world’s top arms companies came calling at Bangalore?

The answer is rather simple. Even before the Government ended Operation Parakram – the 10-month Army mobilisation against Pakistan, there was the realisation that a full-scale war with Pakistan in the near future could not be ruled out. For this reason, Operation Parakram has been called a "strategic redeployment" and not withdrawal, implying that troops will be ready for war at short notice. In the interim, there is a need to plug the chinks in our armour for the entire spectrum of war – an irregular war, a regular conventional war, and a threat of nuclear war. This has resulted in India seeking to acquire weaponry on a scale, which has not been done since the military extravaganza of the eighties under Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi. Setting aside the various Comptroller and Auditor General’s reports, which have found irregularities with procurements in the wake of the 1999 Kargil war, and the various scandals like Tehelka which have been a setback to new acquisitions, the Government has decided to strengthen the armed forces.

The expected deals, worth billion of dollars, will be of two types: the ostensible and the hidden. The former are needed to reinforce conventional strength for both regular and irregular war, and the latter are efforts to procure prohibitive technology needed for various indigenous missile projects. Russia, Israel, and hopefully, France (in the same order) are the countries with whom this business could be done.

There will be a few highlights of defence imports by India. As a war with Pakistan is not ruled out, the emphasis will be on operational rather than training procurements. This means that the urgent need for an Advanced Jet Trainer (AJT) for the Indian Air Force is unlikely to fructify soon. The AJT, after all, is a training requirement. Making use of this evident delay, many countries with AJTs in various stages of development have entered the competition, which should have ended long ago. These include the Russia MiGAT, the Czech L-159B, and the US T-50 AJT. The world’s top arms manufacturer, Lockheed Martin, whose T-50 AJT is expected to be delivered to the South Korean Air force not before 2006, has made its bid in India with full knowledge that decision on the issue is not imminent.

Within operational needs, the emphasis will be on force multipliers, which help enhance existing equipment capabilities, and allow commanders to appreciate battles faster and in depth. India is immediately looking for long range and high altitude radars, high altitude and better endurance unmanned aerial vehicles, night fighting devices, fire control systems for gun accuracy, specialised and precision ammunitions and so on. India’s topmost priority would be to garner adequate quantities of spares, and such force multipliers. Should India and Pakistan go to war, an embargo on arms and ammunition would be the first action by the international community.

Also included for immediate purchase would be massive quantities of across-the-board equipment for irregular warfare. Considering the Government has cleared the raising of more special forces meant to take a covert war into PoK, their acquisitions assume priority; the two countries, which should compete with one another for these bids, are Israel and France. However, the US ambassador in India, Robert D Blackwill, has said that India and the US are discussing equipment for the special forces in addition to chemical and biological protection. This is indeed strange. While chances of a nuclear war between India and Pakistan are remote, the possibility of either side resorting to chemical and biological warfare does not exist. Moreover, India should not get carried away by US arms offers, which come with too many strings attached. A better bet is to go elsewhere, and ensure that procured products do not have US end-user restrictions. In addition to the above items, a few major weapons platforms are needed immediately. The Russian smirch multi-barrel-rocket-launcher falls in this category.

The priority list would also include seeking certain restrictive items. For example, Prithvi missiles need terminal guidance systems for accuracy. Its other drawback, of having liquid propellant, is being replaced by solid fuel. Moreover, the government would do well to clinch the Russian aircraft carrier deal at the earliest. According to Mr Fernandes, the deal includes the aircraft carrier, and the leasing of four TU-22 long-range bombers and two Akula submarines, and is expected to be signed by April. Should this happen, India would have a credible nuclear delivery platform in the TU-22 aircraft.

Once the immediate operational requirements are met, there is plenty that the Indian military needs in the short and medium terms. The Government strategy for this purpose should be twofold. While the focus should be on indigenisation, equipment upgrades and modernisation ought to be done with outside help. It is here that many of the foreign arms companies, which participated in Bangalore, will come handy. India, however, would do will to adopt a step-by-step approach as the Chinese do. It is no good attempting ambitious projects from scratch.

The most important thing however, would be to set out own house in order first – there is little use in pretending that our indigenous industrial base with its present shortcoming can produce armaments of world class standards. INAV