Daily Excelsior... Editorial

EDITORIAL

Second hand MiG
aircraft? ‘Yes’! ‘Yes’!!

By B L Kak

A bitter controversy is raging across India over the fitness,
viability and efficacy of the available MiG aircraft. And following the death of ......more

The gimmick of no-confidence motion

By K.N. Pandita

For two full days, the Parliament discussed the no-confidence motion brought by the leader of the opposition party. At the end of the day, an ordinary citizen of India would like to .......more

Brewing internal
crisis in Pakistan

By Allabaksh Hyderabadi

There is a Hindustani saying that says when troubles come they come in a torrent. This is coming true in Musharraf's......more

EDITORIAL

Culpable immorality

For an India that has learnt the probity from English it is meet that a moral laxity would rank less importance than a criminal offence. Yet there often are times when the moral fabric, rather renting the moral fabric, gets acknowledged for its gravity. The recent no-confidence motion in the Lok Sabha was actually about morality. Somehow the Government in this state has been riding the podium of high morality without doing much about it. Is it because it is not getting duly questioned for it? Only yesterday here was the Finance Minister, the defacto number two in the cabinet, declaring that his Government would not spare even the Chief Secretary if found lax. Yet before all these righteous noses , in one of the most important ministries, corruption has been giving out its fetid airs for the last six months, without attracting even a cursory nosing by the very vigilant Government that is said to be Governing this State. It is hard to believe that Government has not heard or known about goings on in its own revenue ministry.

indeed, before the Government takes on ‘pervious corruptions’ it has the moral as well as constitutional duty to clear its own stables of the stinking pit into which the ministry responsible for practical administration has been turned. Revenue Department from patwaris onwards is the most visible and operational arm of the Government. It has been bedeviled with very open and serious allegations of corruption…nay, outright sale of postings of all cadres, the latest of which the High Court has been constrained to stay and get probed. As the responsible officer ‘heading’ the department the FC (R) has rightly become focus of these investigations. Besides, people expect officers in the steel frame to stand against deviations from the norms and rules. One doesn’t know if too much onus is being put on the officer cadres here, but as the Prime Minister would put it, they have a dharma to observe. And, must adhere to it. At the same time, the political bosses must also be called into question. For, given the sway of the ministers it is pretty nigh impossible for anybody to surpass the political authority.

Given the penchant some ministers have developed for interposing themselves into the pettiest of affairs of departments under them, nothing can happen without their express orders. Be that as it may, there is high need for a thorough probe into the affairs of the ministry and its conduct for all these months. The allegations of corruption are too serious and widespread. The middlemen and touts have been named in certain allegations. Even the beneficiaries are not so much camouflaged. All in all this represents a stark betrayal of the high hopes that have been raised by this Government, with its proclamations and assertions. In fact, a Government that presumes to clear the Augean stables of corruption in this state should have given standing orders to the VO to suo motto probe any foul-airs it gets wind of. That is what the lofty Vigilance and CID is meant for. Or, has this government too fallen into the age-old practice of un-seeing violations under its nose and carrying out cosmetic damage-control when the stink becomes too much? It certainly waited for the shit to hit the fan. It apparently is waiting still!

Shifting sands

It was only a month that the Jamat-I-Islami elections were hailed as a victory for its extremist leader Ali Shah Geelani. And today the leader has got virtual marching orders. Apparently it is on a request by the Hurriyat chairman Abbas Ansari to send a representative to the conglomerate executive who would be ready to attend its meetings. Jammat has assured it that it would be sending a representative shortly. Geelani’s retirement comes on the eve of that deputation, but certainly there is more to it than giving the aged leader some rest. He has also been ailing for quite some time, but then isn’t it the aged and ailing leaders who get more active and operational in the political arenas? Syed Geelani, himself had given no indication that he intended to take a break much less a rest from active politics. A few months back he was on the verge of forming not only a party but another ‘Hurriyat’ to counter the Hurriyat which he believes is betraying its purpose and constitution by courting peace. One never thought that peace was such a bad word in there. To be sure more and more parties are driving for peace.

Even Hizbul Mujahideen seems to be bidding for it! Why did the peaceable Majid Dar get killed; he was so much for peace and ready to sacrifice a lot for it. In fact, he did and if he had been given free sway, the thaw that is becoming visible now would have been seen half-a-decade ago. Better late than never, as they say in the proverb. So far the new Hurriyat leadership has stood firm on the path of peace, even going to Delhi to talk to Kashmir Committee whom it spurned to see during its week-long sojourn in the Valley just a year ago. Had it talked then it, probably, would have shown itself less of an underling of terrorists and more of a political body that it claims to be. In between, the Kashmir Committee has become almost irrelevant. And, peace may come inspite of Hurriyat or anybody. For, the people are slowly vying for it. Indeed, it could be in response to this un-ignorable wish of the people that the parties are orienting themselves to peace. As a political party Jammat can hardy ignore this imperative and may be preparing itself for it, by ousting the roadblocks in the path. Of course, none knows if it is really that good.

Second hand MiG aircraft? ‘Yes’! ‘Yes’!!

By B L Kak

A bitter controversy is raging across India over the fitness,
viability and efficacy of the available MiG aircraft. And following the death of several airmen in the air crashes in recent times, the number of critics of the Ministry of Defence (MoD) and IAF has considerably increased.

These critics—a section of them represented by Indian media—cannot be faulted for their argument that in a world where the common person is seemingly hesitant to buy second hand cars, the IAF (Indian Air Force does not fight shy in purchasing second hand MiG aircraft trainers from Kyrgzstan and Ukrain with the excuse that these are cheaper.

The Defence Ministry has reported that the new aircraft costs Rs 190 crores, while the second hand trainer that has been made available costs just Rs 2.5 crores. The folly of this logic has been proved by the recent crash of a second hand MIG trainer at Srinagar in Kashmir.This logic, sadly, has placed valuable lives of Indian pilots at grave risk.

It is surprising, if not shocking, that the IAF and MoD are quoting cheaper prices, and not the standards of airworthiness that should be taken into active consideration before fighter jets are purchased. The unacceptable mechanism is like a petty housewife buying slightly spoilt potatoes because they are cheaper than the fresh variety!

A media report was circulated just the other day—significantly, it has not been denied by the MoD and the IAF—saying that preliminary inquiry into the Srinagar crash did indicate that the mishap was due to engine failure. This, if any, was construed as yet another indication that the second hand aircraft had outlived their flying life.

Hence, all the more reason for the Indian masses to pronounce that these aircraft are not safe at all. If the reports doing the rounds were to be believed, the IAF has purchased as many as 27 second hand MiG trainers recently. And these purchases, curiously, were made in spite of the fact that old aircraft are not being used by even countries smaller and more cash strapped than India.

And it is not difficult to cite an example or two in this connection. It is not unknown to mandarins in the Ministry of Defence and Air Headquarters at Delhi that Bulgaria and Romania have already withdrawn some of the MiG variants.

Is the Defence Minister, George Fernandes, really concerned about the growing crisis ? Fernandes, who has earned the sobriquet ‘Minister for Siachen’ because of his frequent trips to the 18,000-foot high area in Ladakh region, cannot get rid of the crisis simply by putting on an airman’s fatigue and flying in one MiG or another version of the aircraft.

What is the outcome of the earlier declaration that India would ground MiG-21 type 69 trainers following a crash not long ago ? George Fernandes is required to take significant steps to deal with the problem.

MiG-21 is regarded as the backbone of the IAF. George Fernandes and his men cannot deny the fact that it has been involved in as many as 115 accidents claiming lives of 50 pilots over the past decade. An apt remark by a media commentator: The MiGs, instead of arousing fear in the enemy, have scared the nation that is perturbed about the unacceptable loss of lives.

George Fernandes may have his own reasons or compulsions as he defends the capability of available MiGs. But he cannot ignore the widespread public feeling or reaction—that is, the ‘flying coffins’ as these aircraft are now being popularly referred to, have lost the trust and confidence of the people.

It is, precisely, in this context that Kavita Gadgil, mother of a young IAF pilot who died in a MIG-21 crash two years ago, will meet George Fernandes to discuss issues relating to making military aircraft flying safer. The meeting, proposed by Fernandes in a letter to Kavita Gadgil, is seen as a follow-up to the one she had with the President, APJ Abdul Kalam, at Rashtrapati Bhavan earlier this month.

And Kavita Gadgil cannot be prevented from asking the Defence Minister to set up an independent board of experts to carry out a squadron-by-squadron audit of aircraft serviceability since it has been established that a third of the accidents involving MiG were due to technical failures.

Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) undertakes overhauling of MiG trainers at Korapur for more than a decade now. Significantly, however, the Russians have blamed India periodically for the recurring MiG crashes. The Russians, in fact, accuse HAL and the Indian Air Air Force of creating conditions for frequent crashes by buying low-quality spares and even spares that have outlived their utility.

These spares are, and have been, purchased from Ukraine and other East European countries. The fighter that crashed in Srinagar had been purchased from Ukraine, after that country had decommissioned it.

Another issue, which has attracted public attention, is the reported failure of the Indian Army to attract fresh blood. A Defence Ministry report on armed forces recruitment recently came out with facts that there is a surplus of officers at the levels of colonel, brigadier and above and an alarming shortage at the cutting edge of Majors and Captains.

If the report is any guide, there is a shortfall of 3,659 officers at the Major level and 9,009 shortfall at the Captain and Lieutenant level. The report was circulated among members of Parliament. It reveals a top-heavy Army with fewer number of youth signing up to become officers.

Figures reveal that there is an overall shortage of 12,668 officers in the ranks of Lieutenants, Captains and Majors. This phenomenon should cause concern to the powers-that-be in New Delhi.

The usual reasons are cited to explain away the problem: Poor service conditions coupled with limited career prospects. However, at the level of policy planners, not enough attention has been paid to the relatively recent phenomenon of several young officers preferring to quit the forces rather than continue amid a spectre of uncertainty and stagnation.

The gimmick of no-confidence motion

By K.N. Pandita

For two full days, the Parliament discussed the no-confidence motion brought by the leader of the opposition party. At the end of the day, an ordinary citizen of India would like to ask a few simple questions. Where was the necessity of bringing in the motion? What or whose purpose did it serve? Who is responsible for (a) subjecting the nation to unnecessary expenditure of holding the government hostage to a senseless debate for two days, and (b) should there be a more stringent code of conduct for moving no-confidence motions in future?

Older people, who had the privilege of watching no-confidence motions debated in the Parliament during first three decades of independence, are disappointed on the deterioration of the level of these debates. It reflects the downslide in political commitments in this country.

The major opposition party, Congress, had no doubts that the motion would be defeated. Its spokespersons made no secret of it. Why then should it have pushed the matter? According to some analysts, it was a pre-election exercise. If that is true, then the Congress has taken the nation for a ride. It wants to settle its party affairs in the parliament perhaps because its leadership is incapable of keeping the flock together.

Should the nation permit that to happen? This is the question, which ordinary voter will carefully consider. And he must consider as a responsible citizen desiring the nation to become strong.

One is amused on the language of the motion moved by the Congress leader. The PM has rightly said that abandoning all norms of decency, decorum and choice of words, the leader of opposition appears to have opened the English dictionary and picked up all available negative adjectives to work out the defamation of the ruling coalition.

Indeed the language of Sonia’s "charge sheet" betrayed dismal ignorance of the beauty and subtlety of the English phrase. Those who drafted it were, in the words of the PM "calling names (galian de rahe hain") and not making a high level intellectual statement inspired by the logic of induction and deduction.

The entire presentation of speakers from oppositionbenches, Congress stalwarts in particular, left no doubt with anybody that not politics but persons were aimed at. When politics debases into personal insinuations, accusations and unsubstantiated allegations, the nation’s image is darkened.

Again, it is outlandish to bring allegations that are not substantiated by commensurate evidence. Does it behoove an elected representative to bring unsubstantiated and unverified allegations against another elected representative just because he or she sits on the opposition benches? In doing so, the accuser becomes a laughing stock in the eyes of ordinary citizens. It is clear that he or she wants to win the favour of the party leader or the party echelons on the count that he or she is more vocal, an ardent rabble-rouser and a fighting John. We have no dearth of sycophants among various wings of our civil society.

The members of the parliament generally have to observe the code of conduct imposed by the party to which they belong. But at the same time, a member’s personality must reflect deep sense of responsibility and commitment to the national cause. In this context the opposition and the "charge sheet" of Sonia should have been extremely careful in touching on two subjects, namely defence matters and foreign policy. If the opposition party is not sensitive to issues of immense importance and is not willing to handle these with due respectability, forcing the government to divulge state secrets that jeopardize national security, then the electorate has the right to move a no-confidence motion against the opposition.

Let me explain the point briefly. The opposition charged the coalition government with aimlessly rushing to Pokhran II. The PM retaliated by reading out the relevant portions of the text of a letter of a defence minister of Congress government saying that the government wanted to conduct a nuclear test way back in 1983 but could not owing to the foreign pressures. Which government succumbed to the foreign pressure, he asked?

In another instance in which the PM was replying to the charge of Sonia that the coalition government was complacent towards communalization, he said that in the aftermath of China’s attack, Nehru, the then Prime Minister, had invited the RSS to join the national security force, which his government had decided to raise.

Likewise, the defence minister, while replying to the charges of the opposition was very right in asking them if they were conversant with the geography, topography, local conditions, logistical issues and the related matters of Hill Kaka operation? We are sure that not even one half of the total strength of opposition groups has any knowledge of these matters.

We would better not touch foreign policy matters. The opposition helped itself get totally exposed and flat on this count.

We shall desist from reproducing other comments no less sensitive. But it should be impressed upon the MPs that they have to give up the politics of vendetta. The Congress is not reconciled to sitting on the opposition benches. It is so because having ruled this country for four decades, it has yet to understand the spirit of democratic arrangement. It is not coming out from the forty year old stupor of wielding political power. It is not reconciled to the verdict of the people. The PM was right in asserting that the opposition was nobody to ask why his partners were in the seats of power. It is the Indian nation that has installed the coalition in power.

Yet one’s attention is also drawn towards the low quality of discipline observed in the course of debate in parliament. Unfortunately, some of the MPs are unable to make a difference between a street gathering, its claptrap and haranguing and a serious debate in the parliament. The practice of obstructing the speakers, including the Prime Minister, in presenting their side of the case, is unacceptable. When the opposition party brings charges against the government, and the government representatives rise to provide clarification to the house, what does it mean to obstruct them from doing the job? Does it means that the culture of mobocracy should prevail in the Parliament? Does it mean that the nation should become a laughing stock in the eyes of the world when the electronic media relays to all the four corners of the world the entire parliamentary proceedings?

Agreeing that the ruling party has many skeletons in the cupboard, it does not mean that the accepted norms and decorum of a high level parliamentary debate should be thrown to winds. Our parliamentarians have to learn to rise above personal elements in national politics. Like an elephant, the Indian electorate may be slow to move but its moves are stable, confident and steadfast. It knows well that the Congress, once the apple of everybody’s eye, is lacking leadership of the stature that had led it to the corridors of glory and power in good old days.

Brewing internal crisis in Pakistan

By Allabaksh Hyderabadi

There is a Hindustani saying that says when troubles come they come in a torrent. This is coming true in Musharraf's Pakistan. He is not going to have any respite to the dismay of his friends at home and well wishers overseas.

What are these troubles? The list is long. One much talked about problem is spurt in Shia-Sunni clashes and the attacks on Christian minorities. Another area of serious concern is the situation along the Pakistan-Afghan border and the consequent deterioration in bilateral relations.

The ransacking of the Pakistan embassy in Kabul and the sharp exchanges between the two governments is only an external symptom of a deeper malaise that has its roots as much in the Taliban period in Kabul as in the Zia rule in Islamabad.

Yet another area, which in my view is far more serious, is the impact of the continued stand off between Musharraf and the opposition on the economy. If Musharraf and his advisors fail to end the political impasse and the security scenario continues to deteriorate, macro-economic environment will go into a spin and the investors will simply disappear. This is a prospect, Musharraf can ill-afford. Because, the World Bank too can turn off its tap.

In fact, the Bank has already put Pakistan on notice that it will not support any of Vision 2025 water and hydel projets. Technical and feasibility studies will be funded provided Islamabad speeds up water and power sector reforms and introduces a National Water Policy with a five-year perspective.

Just as in India, in Pakistan also, water is a political football. Our own Cauvery dispute and the latest Paragodu imbroglio between Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka pale into insignificance before the differences between Punjab and Sindh and between PoK and Pakistan on sharing of river waters. Musharraf, like all his predecessors-civilian and military- is at sixes and sevens on the water front. The general impression is that he is a hostage to the Punjab lobby and is allowing himself to be back seat driven in these matters.

As the Lahore daily, The Nation commented editorially, the World Bank diktat on water is going to be a new flash point for the beleaguered regime. The Bank will more or less write the water policy with a five-year perspective to fit in with its own doctrinaire monetarist dogmas, and this is not going to have many takers, not necessarily among the fringe Left alone.

The World Bank has for a long time had a bee in its bonnet that the kind of water users associations that successfully distribute canal water in Southern California or Arizona should be replicated in Pakistan as well. This is something not new to Andhra Pradesh, where the World Bank ordained water users associations have become the fiefdom of the ruling Telugu Desam. Water is not just H2O any longer, but looms large in politics. Accepting any kind of dictation from any outside agency, even if it is the High Priest of Development Finance, is bound to spell danger.

Like our own central bank (Reserve Bank of India, RBI), Pakistan's central bank (State Bank of Pakistan, SBP) is comfortable projecting a rosy picture of the economy. While RBI looks for props before making its claims, the SBP doesn't take this elementary care. May be that is because the environment in which it is placed offers it no support systems and compels it to fall in with the regime's thinking. This is bad not just for the economy but the country as a whole. Noted Pakistan economist Dr Akmal Hussain ahs just torn to pieces the SBP claims and the financial indicators the officialdom is holding up as emblems of Pakistan's economic health.

Writing under the heading ''apparent versus the real'' in the pro-liberal daily. The Daily Times, Akmal Sahib said while the financial indicators have improved, the real economy has declined. Continued deterioration in the real economy means rising poverty, unemployment and social distress.

The point, he makes, and we on this side of the border have less difficulty to appreciate, is that mere improvement in foreign exchange reserves (from $3 billion to $ 6.4 billion in less than a year) and appreciation of the rupee (Pakistanis pay now 6.7 per cent less when they go to buy a dollar) is not enough unless these improvements are sustainable. The learned economist believes the regime as also the central banker is 'focusing on the apparent, to displace attention from the real.' The real issues are poverty, hunger, education, housing and all the rest we are sadly familiar with in this country.

Yes, the comparison between the two neighbours should stop at this point, though both Governments are following the same benchmarks from the Brettonwoods twins for sustained growth. Where the Indian situation differs substantially from Pakistan's is the broad base of our industry and economy and less dependence on foreign capital and foreign aid. The increase in the Pak rupee dollar exchange rate and the reserves are not the result of a new trend of foreign private capital being attracted by the Pakistani markets; nor are they representative of an accelerated growth of exports. It is because of a long dole.

We need not be an egg-head to comment that private foreign capital flows to Pakistan continue to be severely constrained by the serious law and order problems in the country, uncertain political situation, the lack of a tolerant and liberal social environment, and continuing tensions with India. Investors are as much interested in the extra bucks as the safety and security of their life, limbs and moolah. Karachi bombings last year, the Quetta blasts last month and the continued tribal uprising in the oil and gas rich Balochistan do not inspire, only dampen any enthusiasm amongst the investors who heard General Pervez Musharraf in Paris and were stirred by his call for French investments.

Pakistan economists of all hues agree that real economy of the country is slipping into a deep recession. Investment as a percentage of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) which was 18 per cent in the late 1980s had declined to 15.9 per cent in fiscal year 2001 and has declined further to 13.9 per cent in the year 2002. Private sector investment is steeply falling; the military regime is also unable to step up development expenditure. The former is rooted in low aggregate demand, continuing insecurity of citizens, rampant smuggling and institutional constraints to investment such as poor infrastructure and lack of trained manpower. The Governemnt could in principle stimulate aggregate demand and induce private sector investment through the multiplier effect of sharply increased development expenditure. However it is unable to do so because of overall fiscal constraints and the large military expenditure, a factor pointed out by the World Bank a few days back.

The verdict on the economy from analyst Aslam Sheikh is ''not so good''. ''What President Pervez Musharraf has achieved in the aftermath of 9/11 is temporary relief'', he was quoted as saying in a recent agency despatch from Karachi. The rescheduling of debts, while ''substantial,'' had made the economy dependent, he said and added. ''But there was no alternative for Pakistan''. Economist Shahidur Rehman concurred: ''Pakistan's main problem remains debt burden.... In the wake of terrorism at home and tensions at the border, foreign investors are not coming and hopes of their return in the near future are dim.''

The first thing General Musharraf did after seizing power was to agree to the conditions imposed by IMF and the World Bank to get liberal bail out packages. Well, whether we like him or not, we cannot blame him for the decision given the economic mess he had inherited. Where he failed, however, was delivering on the promises. Financial disciplines he has imposed at the behest of his donor agencies has not checked budget deficit. In fact, lower revenue growth pushed up the budget deficit as a percentage of GDP from 5.3 per cent in fiscal year 2001 to 6.6 per cent in fiscal year 2002.

Economist Akmal Hussain believes the financial discipline so assiduously pursued by the IMF, translated itself in Pakistan into lower development expenditures, sharp increase in poverty levels and abysmally low provision on basic services such as health and education. Yet, Pakistan's official circles persist with a prescription that has made the patient worse rather than better. Agreed, you cannot blame Pak government alone for putting all its faith in the IMF-WB combine. This is a phenomenon we are familiar with in some of our very own hi-tech states.

As a lender (of the lost resort...?) the IMF and World Bank have every right to know how their money is spent in any country. This they are doing already whether it is India or Mozambique. The lenders' reported practice in keeping a hawkish eye on how Government is going about its task of governance in Pakistan makes a mockery of the concept of sovereignty. They are firmly blocking the way for any budgetary concessions. Musharraf wants to offer. Not surprisingly, therefore, financial analyst Aslam Sheikh remarks, ''People complain that the gains (from the loans) were at the cost of political sovereignty''.

Consider this. A report in The Business Recorder, a Pakistan daily known for its clinical approach to economic issues, says the IMF is 'questioning Rs 7 billion hike in agreed revenue target' by Islamabad. The agreed target for 2003-04 was Rs 510 billion. The Central Board of Revenue (of Pakistan) revised the target expecting buoyancy in collections. The IMF was not amused. It held 'detailed' discussions and grilled the CRB mandarins and ordered a fresh appraisal of the real tax potential.

What ever be the IMF prescriptions, the grim reality in Pakistan is poverty is on the rise in the country. Independent economists who met in Islamabad to take stock of the situation put current level of poverty at around 37 per cent of the population that is about 50 million. Interestingly, the Government did not come up with any contradiction. Reason: the Government has no data on poverty and income inequality beyond 1998-99. A fact openly conceded by the latest Economic Survey presented by the State Bank of Pakistan.

Home grown economists like Shahid Kardar put the blame on who else but the IMF-WB twins and their camp followers in Islamabad. ''The regressive taxation structure being implemented under IMF instructions has induced an increase in the incidence of taxation of the lower income group by four per cent since 1987/88 and a decline of 21 per cent in the case of the highest income group.

''The withdrawal of subsidis for fertilizers and pesticides has pushed up prices, while poverty-related subsidies have been reduced from Rs. 5.3 billion in 1990/91 to Rs 0.3 billion in 2000/01. Wrong sequencing of policy by the IMF resulted in interest rates on Government debt trebling before the fiscal deficit of Government had been lowered, accounting for 35 per cent expenditure in 2000/01 compared with 19 per cent in 1990/91. As a consequence, government development expenditures that would have created demand for private sector goods and services were squeezed'', observes Kardar.

Anyone listening at our Mint Street (RBI headquarters in Mumbai) and our very own North Block, which houses the Finance and Home Ministries on the Raisina Hill in New Delhi? I doubt, very much, Why? Because CMIE reports that our Government expenditure is also stagnating. At least that is true for this April and May, the two months for which an official record is available.

(Syndicate Features)