Prabhakar Kulkarni
When the news that the Congress working committee has decided to depute Rahul Gandhi as the party’s candidate for the most coveted position of a prime minister if of course the party wins majority or gets the position of the single largest party in 2019, my first reaction was that the decision might trigger the anti-Congress and anti-BJP front in national politics. This conjecture seemed to be well-founded when within two days the BSP chief Mayavati rushed to meet Sharad Pawar in Maharashtra.
The Congress decision was strategically premature and more based on over-confidence than realization of ground reality in national politics. The pm-aspirants are more than one and when the uncertainty looms large in politics presuming certainty and basing decision on that is obviously leading to wrong track. That is what has happened in this case. The decision also suggests that a formula used by Congress to oust BJP in Karnataka will no longer be used in national politics.
When Rahul takes responsibility of joining all anti-BJP parties and forces for a total front against the BJP and against Modi-Shaha duo in particular, he or the Congress should presume that winning majority or single largest party is not yet a possibility. The Congress has to sort out its own state units with more young activists incorporating in the party as also assuring their prospects in future. This is not easy as the state level parties are equally strong in most of the states and they strategically grabbed various key positions in the state bodies including Gram Panchayats, councils and corporations besides co-operative bodies having links with large number of voters in rural areas.
Linguistic state parties are joining with the BJP or NDA and though their anger against the BJP is more aggressive like Shivsena in Maharashtra or a few in other states the BJP is strategically strong enough to patch up their differences at the eleventh hour. Basically most of the regional state parties like Shivsena and National Congress Party in Maharashtra and JD (secular ) in Karnataka or TDP, BSP, ADMK, DMK etc, have emerged because of state identities being suppressed by the Congress expansionism. The same is the situation now when the BJP is trying to suppress regional parties in a larger perspective of its similar expansionism. The current strife between Shivsena and the ruling BJP in Maharashtra is a symbolic instance of a potential polarization against both the Congress and the BJP.
So there is the scope of the anti-Congress and anti-BJP third front. Understanding between the Mayavati and Akhilesh Yadav or BSP and SP is a symbolic instance of possible unity of similar state parties and Mahavati meeting Sharad Pawar is an indication that an attempt is being made to co-ordinate regional political forces against both the Congress and the BJP.
Communists are equally interested in the third front though their position in the West Bengal is critical as Mamata of the Trinmool is grabbing the state politics and is turning stronger while aspiring for the position of a prime minister. ( W.Bengals journalists in key positions in national print media have already projected her as a potential prime minister ).
But as a strategy to fight against both the Congress and the BJP communists are eager to join the third front and may supply force in the election campaigns. But if the said third front materializes both the Congress and the BJP will face ire against the said front. But the mess will be more confusing as even the third front will have to fight for seat adjustments and claim for the potential prime minister. The scene is therefore more uncertain than can be calculated. This is more so because the BJP is stronger in most of the states and strategically more mature and expert in planning strategic game in a prime period which is yet to be ripe for the unexpected surgical strikes.
(The auhor is a senior journalist )
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