Potential Politics

Prabhakar Kulkarni
When the news that the Congress working committee has decided to  depute Rahul Gandhi as the party’s candidate for the most coveted position of a prime minister if of course the party wins majority or  gets the position of the single largest party in 2019, my first reaction was that the decision might trigger the anti-Congress and anti-BJP front in national politics. This conjecture seemed to be well-founded when within two days the BSP chief Mayavati rushed to  meet Sharad Pawar in Maharashtra.
The Congress decision was strategically premature and more based on over-confidence than realization of ground reality in national  politics. The pm-aspirants are more than one and when the uncertainty looms large in politics presuming certainty and basing decision on that is obviously leading to wrong track. That is what has happened in  this case. The decision also suggests that a formula used by Congress to oust BJP in Karnataka will no longer be used in national politics.
When Rahul takes responsibility of joining all anti-BJP parties and  forces for a total front against the BJP and against Modi-Shaha duo in  particular, he or the Congress should presume that winning majority or  single largest party is not yet a possibility. The Congress has to  sort out its own state units with more young activists incorporating  in the party as also assuring their prospects in future. This is not  easy as the state level parties are equally strong in most of the  states and they strategically grabbed various key positions in the  state bodies including Gram Panchayats, councils and corporations  besides co-operative bodies having links with large number of voters  in rural areas.
Linguistic state parties are joining with the BJP or NDA and though  their anger against the BJP is more aggressive like Shivsena in  Maharashtra or a few in other states the BJP is strategically strong  enough to patch up their differences at the eleventh hour. Basically  most of the regional state parties like Shivsena and National Congress  Party in Maharashtra and JD (secular ) in Karnataka or TDP, BSP, ADMK,  DMK etc, have emerged because of state identities being suppressed by  the Congress expansionism. The same is the situation now when the BJP  is trying to suppress regional parties in a larger perspective of its  similar expansionism. The current strife between Shivsena and the  ruling BJP in Maharashtra is a symbolic instance of a potential  polarization against both the Congress and the BJP.
So there is the scope of the anti-Congress and anti-BJP third front.  Understanding between the Mayavati and Akhilesh Yadav or BSP and SP is  a symbolic instance of possible unity of similar state parties and  Mahavati meeting Sharad Pawar is an indication that an attempt is  being made to co-ordinate regional political forces against both the  Congress and the BJP.
Communists are equally interested in the third front though their  position in the West Bengal is critical as Mamata of the Trinmool is  grabbing the state politics and is turning stronger while aspiring for  the position of a prime minister. ( W.Bengals journalists in key  positions in national print media have already projected her as a  potential prime minister ).
But as a strategy to fight against both the Congress and the BJP  communists are eager to join the third front and may supply force in  the election campaigns. But if the said third front materializes both  the Congress and the BJP will face ire against the said front. But the  mess will be more confusing as even the third front will have to fight  for seat adjustments and claim for the potential prime minister. The  scene is therefore more uncertain than can be calculated. This is more  so because the BJP is stronger in most of the states and strategically  more mature and expert in planning strategic game in a prime period  which is yet to be ripe for the unexpected surgical strikes.
(The auhor  is a senior journalist )
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