Ashok Bhan
The brazen militant attack on an army camp and martyring of a young Captain and other brave soldiers is yet another reminder to security establishment that militants are on targetted/focussed mission to attack. Their masters across and Pakistan”s military continue to support such terrorist attacks in an effort to keep the country off balance and draw the international mediation into the so called dispute of Kashmir.Pakistan”s use of terrorist groups as part of its security and foreign policy is function of its obsession with India,which it perceives as existential threat.Pakistan”s paranoia regarding India is unfounded.
International community has not remained oblivious to Kashmir situation. Recently, Nikki Haley expressed US concern over the situation in South Asia spiraling into a dangerous conflict hinting at Kashmir imbroglio.The other hostile countries and the international Human Rights groups are curiously studying the Kashmir affairs awaiting the opportunity to meddle.There are no takers for Pakistan rants internationally and India”s strength and diplomacy has larger acceptability globally.Still the unending cycle of protests and retributive security measures have stained our democracy politically and optically in the eyes of international opinion.
It is more than clear by now that India is not willing to renegotiate Kashmir”s territorial status and Designating Pakistan as a State sponsor of terrorism in India and Afganistan and posing threat to the stability of South Asia is the Indian diplomacy mantra.
Inwardly deciding about the fate of the State and “Kashmir”in particular by Governments without taking on board all the stake holders,the exiled population and without due deliberations amounts to behave “as a bull would in a China shop”.
Kashmir used to enjoy the glory of peace and rich civilizational plural ethos popularly known Kashmiriyat all over the world, ,the situation in Kashmir is;- the radicalisation is taking over the Socio-Political discourse and gaining greater appeal and the pro Pakistan narrative which was noticeably very weak, has also become strong. the recruitment of local boys in the ranks of militancy is phenominally on the rise.The new age youth and students are up in protest against the very Idea of India and democratic process in the Valley.The young innocent lives and armed forces personnel are lost on a daily basis.
The lowest ever turn over of voters in Srinagar parliamentary constituency followed by violance and loss of nine innocent lives raises serious questions on the competence of dealing with the affairs of Kashmir both on law and order front and for upholding the idea of India and democratic process in Kashmir,by State and central Government.The political space of mainstream polity has shrunk.Democracy is in peril and the attempt to delegitimise the idea of India in Kashmir is galore.
Faced with the continuing death and destruction unleashed by mercenaries the non-State actors since 1989, the colossal sufferings of the large components of Kashmir society, the Muslims and the Kashmiri Pandits in exile and almost a generation in the grave yards:,Yet the Kashmiri population at the societal levels has the sense and understanding that; Pakistan and separatism can not be and is not the option and “resolution of all the issues lies through a negotiated peaceful dialogue process”
New Delhi and PDP-BJP State Govt.could lose its plot in Kashmir,if the hot military pursuit is not blend with regular dialogue or the semblence of it,with the stakeholders including the agitationist youth is not given the chance.That is the overweening demand of top military brass,the security forces,the political class,the civil society and peace loving citizenary of the Country and JK State.
The difference between 2014 and 2017 elections is sumerised as follows;
After long spell of militancy, despondency,death & destruction and cynicism ,the 2014 elections in J&K had brought in hope of democracy and aspiration of economic well being in the people, and particularly the youth of Kashmir valley – that they would benefit from the democratic polity, the economic development and progress promised Prime Minister Modi to the aspiring young India, after his massive election victory in the Country. The youth of Kashmir in particular got inspired and joined the mainstream agenda by a larger participation in the elections. People decided to give peace and positive economic development agenda a priority and through their large participation in the elections, braved boycott calls of anti-democratic elements and defeated all the incumbent ministers and the previous Government. Such was the fervour of hope and positive participation.
Experiment of coalition between the two diametrically and ideologically divergent parties in the State PDP- BJP is tottering. It has not lived to the expectations despite having formulated on paper a good agenda of governance.
It was expected, after the formation of the PDP-BJP coalition government, that it would follow a policy of containment, to limit and scale down the violence and open a peace process with inclusive political discourse and also bring in the economic prosperity through uniform and sustained development and open up avenues of employment for the youth. The government rose to the power behind these expectations of the people.
2017 election campaign was marred by voilence.The poll boycott was vehemently canvassed by the anti election elements. Political pundits describe the boycott campaign as deemed participation in the process by which the mainstream candidates polled marginal votes in the over all turn over of 7% votes polled. Consequently the influence of mainstream polity is marginalised and shrunk.As such the representative status of representing the aspirations/stakes of Kashmiris has shifted to other side has gained political legitimacy argue the political analysists.
The revival of militant activity in the state and elsewhere is a serious issue and a serious reminder that the militant outfits are spread, present and active to strike any time and anywhere. The educated youth in anger joining the militant ranks is hugely disturbing phenomenon, public support to militancy had considerably reduced but it has surfaced with renewed vigour. The phenomenon of terror, panic and disinformation is back in the valley. Security scenario, inwardly is not very assuring. Darker clouds of uncertainty are on the horizon. The militancy is on the rise.Huge participation in the funerals of the slain militants is worrying and disappointing. It reflects the people”s subtle if not the express support to the revival of militancy.
Country expects the PDP-BJP Govt. in the State to blend the hot military action with political outreach and fan out with political activities in the Valley with the patriotic narrative and the agenda of governance. Recent meetings by Prime Minister and Home minister with Ms Mehbooba the first ever woman Chief Minister seems to have been business like,wherein she has promised to take on to herself the task of enforcement of law & order and containing unrest by legitimate political process and activities of her Party on the ground.She has once again fuelled the huge expectations of the youth and the people in general. She is still grappling and grasping the nuances of governance and it is hoped she delivers to best political and administrative abilities in due course.The political pundits in New Delhi and Srinagar rate her as -average- that is her big loss. she has to prove the Pundits wrong is also her challenge.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi, has assured all out help and support to restore peace and bring Valley to normal life for the people.The current turmoil and loss of innocent lives on daily basis has imperiled “Democracy and Human Rights”. Kashmiris are yearning for peace and peaceful and secured life.
Country has to initiate the peace process through meaningful dialogue and informally or formally the CM may invite all the stakeholders for a meaningful dialogue to evolve concrete measures and save Kashmir from current morass.”Country”s strategic and constituional interest lies in the welfare of people of Kashmir, Jammu and Ladakh and not in land alone”.It is expected that PM Modi will recall his assurances reiterated in his speeches and as recent as on opening of Nashri Tunnel that “He is ready to talk to all the sections within the ambit of Insaniyat, and Jamhooriyat”.
The intra-regional cohesion seemingly is in jeopardy and balance of power and resources within the three regions of the State has questionable imbalances; and it needs to be set right.
The political uncertainty in the State has become part of grand militant strategy.The political leadership has to take a call that State does not slip back into the olden abyss.Therefore the leadership and the administration in Delhi and Srinagar has to be on the same page to work together with focus on the affairs of the State rather than their own predispositions.
( The author is Senior Advocate, Supreme Court of India, and Chairman, Kashmir Policy and Strategy Group)
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