Harsha Kakar
Pakistan and China claim their relationship is that of two ‘all- weather friends’. India and China did appear to be moving forward in resolving the vexed border issue and improving bilateral ties, but recent Chinese actions seem to have stonewalled any progress. The visit of the Indian President to China this week may not result in any visible change in Chinese perceptions towards India or Pakistan. They may make innocuous statements, but there is unlikely to be any positive actions on ground. Simultaneously, every attempt by India to build bridges with Pakistan seem to collapse even before the first girder is launched. This trio of nations continue to indulge in strategic games while jostling for domination of the South Asian landmass. The cooling off in relations between the US and Pakistan and increasing confrontation between the US and China only enhances the quagmire.India’s growing proximity to the US, Japan and the west increases doubts in Chinese minds. To further compound the case is Russia,which since the imposition of sanctions over Ukraine, has begun looking towards Asia, notably China.
China by its recent actions at the UN and the NSG has openly demonstrated its support for Pakistan. Whether this is in quid-pro-quo for Pakistan’s military support for the construction of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), which would benefit China immensely, or to indicate its preference in relations between its two neighbours, time would tell. In addition, it is China which is providing missile and weapon technology to Pakistan permitting it to enhance its nuclear delivery means.
Pakistan, being placed at a vantage point, geographically, was a nation in demand during the Russian invasion of Afghanistan and also during the US led war on terror, post 9/11. Further with Iran under isolation, it remained important to the western world. However, its failure to curtail the Taliban and the Haqqani network, as also terrorist groups operating against India,moved it away from the international radar. The provision of military hardware and aidfrom the US now seems to be on the wane and would only reduce, post the change in US presidency. Its traditional Arab base also appears to be receding due to drop in global oil prices, rising involvement in the war against the IS and increasing Indian diplomatic influence. Therefore, China would appear to be its only benefactor in the years ahead. The Russian factor remains only a possibility for now, as the Russians, though still close to India are only testing the waters.
Economically Pakistan hopes to revive and survive on the CPEC. Internally it faces strife and turmoil. Sectarian violence, terrorist strikes and bomb blasts are a daily occurrence. Militarily it is in competition with India, whom it openly declares its sworn enemy. India’s recent missile tests have created a factor of fear within the Pakistan military establishment. With military aid receding from the west, lack of finances to purchase military hardware andenhancing capabilities by India compel it toeither obtain its military requirement from China or enhance the production and deployment of tactical nuclear weapons as a counter measure to India. Military supplies from Russia appear to be on the cards, though not formal yet.
The visit in the recent past of the Indian Prime Minister to China and the reciprocal visit of their President did indicate a warming in the relationship. India’s growing proximity to the west, unstinted support to the ‘open sea policy’ and enhancing maritime ties with Japan again distanced the two nations. The forthcoming participation of four Indian naval ships in the Malabar exercise in the South China sea would only increase the distance. Though India did attempt to appease China by denying visas to Chinese dissidents, it was of no avail. China has made it abundantly clear that it would continue to prefer its growing relationship with Pakistan over India.
There is growing ambiguity over China upgrading its Tibetan Command, with US intelligence even stating that it would enhance capabilities in case of a future conflict with India.Whatever be the reason, militarily it is clear that whenever you upgrade a particular appointment, it is done to place additional resources under command. This action could involve increased deployment in Tibet. Increased deployment indicates increased logistic capabilities and a greater quantum of acclimatized troops available for operations in a shorter time frame. For India, it implies a shorter warning period, a larger acclimatized offensive force and possibly increase in border incursions.
China is effectively employing Pakistan’s to counter India’s military power as also to obtain a foothold of dominance in Afghanistan. It is also aiming to stall the Uyghur terrorism from expanding in Xinjiang, by utilizing Pakistan’s powerover the Taliban. Pakistan therefore has to deliver on a number of fronts for continued Chinese support. It has to ensure security to the CPEC and Gwadar, provide China with a foothold in Afghanistan and compel the Taliban to restrict Uyghur militants from returning.
In international relations there are no permanent friends or permanent enemies. There was a time, when Pakistan was at the forefront of western aid, almost immune to any criticism from the west for its misadventures in India. Today it is off the radar. If it fails to deliver in Afghanistan and continues with its theatrics of deployment of tactical nuclear weapons it may face more than just criticism. If it does not deliver what China expects, Chinese support may recede. Therefore, supporting the Baluch movement assumes strategic importance for India. Russia has shown intent, but yet made no promises. Diplomacy is always long term and friends today, could become distant tomorrow, as national interests always reign supreme. For India, therefore, this is a period of wait and watch. However, it needs to be cautious about military developments in Tibet and hence needs to hasten the raising and operationalization of the mountain strike corps and improving infrastructure along its northern borders, while it continues to engage China diplomatically.
(The author is a retired Major General of the Indian Army)
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