Bhupesh Kumar Jain
J&K is a festering wound on India, since its independence, and has been oozing in spurts with venomous liquid, post 1989. What India faces is Political Warfare launched by its adversaries. The rulers in 1947, both in India and the state of J&K were either myopic in front of their self interest or lacked the competence to be the ruler being bereft of foresight and vision. The people of the state and India continue to pay a price for the same. Here are some of the thoughts of the people who daily suffer in the state.
War is meant to be won and not negotiated. What one sees in J&K is war. It could be called non linear war, or unrestricted war, or asymmetrical war. Call it what you like, war it is. The enemy(s) would like to synchronize this war with each other, ( Pakistan, China) as also all other domestic Indian conflicts such as Maoism, regionalism, caste, community or any other such issues. Negotiations are meant to gain time, but finally India shall have to fight to win. There is no other option.
All the tools at the disposal of Pakistan shall be employed as part of war machine, hard military power, soft, technological, economic, cultural, diplomatic, etc. The aim is to attain political goal. J&K is NOT the goal. The political goal is destruction of India by breaking it up in smaller parts. Make it look helpless as a state and compel it dance to the tune of its adversarial neighbors. Weaker power such as Pakistan would prefer to continue to wage this war till it attains its goal. Physical war is not an attractive option. To continue this it needs a power structure which continues to reinforce adversarial nature of relationship between India and Pakistan. Such a structure in Pakistan suits every power aspiring to be a player in the region, each one for a different but unique region.
Soft power is meant to erode the ability of the people to know the truth. Information operations are a key ingredient of the same. The aim being that people and decision makers are unable to act in their own interests. Each segment of decision making, common man, diplomatic, military, business community, etc feel that war is not in their interest for they may emerge weaker conversely another player may emerge stronger, relative to other component at the end of it.
Foreign policy component of Pakistan is to ensure that negotiations are prevented by regularly making inflammatory statement, undermine India’s institutions as well as its leadership including India’s achievements. At the same time highlight and glorify China Pakistan Economic Corridor. Imagine a Pakistan Corps Commander advising India to give up anti Pakistan activities and join the corridor for the development of the sub continent. Keep offering itself as the only viable mediator in Afghanistan as well as trade route to CAR.
Maintain reasonable hard power, rattle nukes at regular intervals, pretend to be mad and claim that security establishment is autonomous of the rulers. Keep promising to put down Haqqani network without actually doing it so as to send a clear message to the jihadists of the intent. Work closely with China to develop its own Defence production capability to support the limited hard power and support its viability with limited export.
The Six Principles of Political Warfare in “The Art of Political War” by David Horowitz state that Politics is war conducted by other means. In political wars you do not fight just to prevail in an argument, but to destroy the enemy’s fighting ability. Politics is a war of position. Your task is to define yourself as the friend of as large a constituency compatible with your principles as possible, while defining your opponent as the enemy whenever and wherever you can. In political wars, the aggressor usually prevails. Aggression is advantageous because politics is a war of position. In attacking your opponent, take care to do it right. Going negative … can be counterproductive. Ruling out the negative … can incur an even greater risk. Position is defined by fear and hope. The twin emotions of politics are fear and hope… hope is the better choice. The weapons of politics are symbols that evoke fear and hope. The most important symbol is the candidate him or her self. Style … is as important as any issue position or propaganda strategy. The audiences that will determine your fate are audiences that you will first have to persuade. Therefore it is absolutely essential to focus your message and repeat it over and over again. Symbols and sound-bites determine the vote. Victory lies on the side of the people. You must define yourself in ways that the people understand. You must give people hope in your victory, and make them fear the victory of your opponent. You can accomplish this by identifying yourself and your issues with the underdog and the victim, with minorities, and the disadvantaged, with the ordinary, Janes and Joe.
Pakistan Army is the lead agency waging Political Warfare for Pakistan. In the present dispensation, in India NSA would possibly be the lead agency. J&K, at present has the highest number of terrorists than at any time in recent past. Past few months unrest allowed the terrorist to move about freely among the masses. They are presently concentrated in the Southern districts of the Kashmir valley. There are reports of some of them being seen South of Pir Panjal. It is said that recent group which targeted Nagrota came from valley. It is also being reported that 2016 saw the highest number of local recruitments in recent time. The signs have been ominous with terrorist targeting military convoy repeatedly in Pampore.
In India, Political, military and police leadership is often obliged to speak in a particular tone. Heart can be a weapon to influence population which has not picked a side. It is unlikely to serve as a weapon for the hard headed adversary such as Pakistan Army. Such an Adversary would only back down once its very survival is put at stake. Has the time come to deal in steel rather than talk of the heart.
One single surgical strike is unlikely to deter Pakistan Army and State. India needs to up the ante. Recouping requisite War wastage rates of ammunition and bringing it to the required levels is a good first step. It should be followed by the further demonstration of strengthening of capabilities. Willingness of the political Indian leadership to wage political warfare against Pakistan Army is imperative for India to exist in 21st century with dignity. In order to do that the nation has to be prepared to pay the price for the same.
(The author is former Maj General)
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