J&K Civic elections
Anil Anand
A small but significant civic election in a small but politically and strategically significant state of Jammu and Kashmir has given many reasons to analyse it and study the new contours emerging out of the polls held in the midst of boycott by two Kashmir Valley centric political parties, National Conference, headed by Dr Farooq Abdullah, and Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) of the Muftis.
Expectedly all eyes were on troubled Kashmir valley particularly in respect of peaceful conduct of elections and also response of the voters in the midst of yet another boycott call given by separatist and anti-India groups. This call was more by way of creating scare to keep the voters away. The civic polls passed the mast with flying colours which was reflected in polling process being accomplished without any untoward incident. However, the abysmally lower percentage of voter turnout in Kashmir has left a scar on the democratic process.
No election, howsoever small or big, in Jammu and Kashmir is complete without leaving behind certain controversies such as whether the elections were free and fair or whether the outcome reflected a representative character so on and so forth. No election in the state is ever complete without throwing some new trends and setting political contours for future. It is true of the just concluded 2018- J&K civic elections covering all the three diverse regions, Jammu, Kashmir and Ladakh. The ultimate emerging trends are as diverse, though there are certain minor commonalities, as the three regions.
With both National Conference and PDP staying away from the elections, all eyes were riveted on arch rivals, more at the national levels than in the state, BJP and Congress as to how do they perform under the circumstances. For BJP it was an opportunity to re-establish its supremacy in Jammu region, its mainstay, and at the same time ensure that it electorally entered the Valley with success for the first time. On the other hand Congress had the opportunity to recover its lost ground in all the three regions, considered its strongholds with Jammu being more crucial.
The most disastrous of the poll outcome came for Congress as it failed to make any worthwhile mark in Jammu region, where it was expected to do well in view of the strong public resentment against BJP for non-deliverance despite being in the Government both at the Centre and in the state. The biggest jolt for Congress was near decimation in prestigious Jammu Municipality. Although loss of vote share of BJP was much more than Congress in this city elections, BJP gained comfortable majority by winning more seats while Congress could barely cross the two-digit mark. Its performance left much to be desired in smaller towns and other district headquarters as compared to BJP.
Kashmir had more or less similar outcome for the Congress. The BJP being a new entrant and people in the Valley by and large not favourably inclined towards the saffron party and both National Conference and PDP out of the scene, it was expected that Congress would seize the opportunity with both hands to suitably recover its political ground. But that was not to be except in some pockets in South and North Kashmir.
The faction ridden Congress with whims and fancies of senior leaders lording over all other factors particularly the winnability of the candidates, the party could in fact never raise to the occasion. In Valley it even fell short of candidates at many places thereby leaving the field wide open either for the BJP or independent candidates to win without any contest. The question must be asked of the state Congress president and other senior leaders as to why could not they find candidates or why the seats were allowed to go uncontested and why was the party affair so disjointed in Jammu region. It has lot to do with poor poll management that was reflected at every step in both Jammu and Kashmir regions.
In Kashmir the party high command could not find appropriate number of candidates for reasons best known to them while in Jammu encouraging factionalism, poor selection of candidates and leaving everything to the mercy of few so called established leaders cost the party heavily. A divided house in the absence of virtually no visible centralised campaign led to Congress missing the opportunity to exploit the anti-BJP sentiment and absence of both National Conference and PDP.
A big saving grace came for the party in the shape of its stellar performance in Leh and Kargil Municipalities. Though small in size these two areas have political significance of different kind both for Congress as well as the BJP. Ultimately, Congress won all the seats in Leh and emerged as the single largest party in Kargil with independents coming next. The BJP drawing a blank in this region is a big political development.
For quite some time ever since BJP won Ladakh Lok Sabha in 2014 seat though by a slender margin and subsequent victory in the Leh Hill Counsel elections, the strategist of the saffron party had been working overtime in this Buddhist dominated area (read Leh). Also part of the BJP’s strategy was to work on Shia factor in Kargil (a Shia dominated area) on which the party pinned high hopes to perform better. These are significant developments as the total loss in Leh and Kargil reflects the no-confidence of the Buddhist and failure of their Shia card which the party is trying to play even at the national levels.
Despite this face saver in Ladakh Congress is the biggest loser as a better performance particularly winning Jammu Municipality could have given the party a big boost to regain its might ahead of 2019 Lok Sabha and possible early Assembly elections. Whereas the BJP is upbeat by winning Jammu civic body along with some others, Congress, with a mix of face savers here and there, is in total disarray.
It is an opportunity deliberately lost by the Congress. There are no visible signs of introspection into causes of defeat and fixing the responsibility. Surely, the prospective candidates for the Lok Sabha and Assembly elections have already started flexing their muscles. Indeed, true Congress syndrome.
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