Dr Shabir Choudhry
Thank Almighty that some thinking people of Pakistan have finally started to note that all is not well with the mega project of CPEC, which is presented to the people of Pakistan, Gilgit Baltistan and Azad Kashmir as a ‘panacea to all its problems’, which will cure all problems of these regions.
On electronic and in print media of Pakistan people have started asking questions about lack of transparency and accountability. People ask why the entire CPEC is shrouded with secrecy. What is there which both China and Pakistan are hiding? Good thing is that these Pakistani critics are not accused of being agents of India. Perhaps this ‘title’ is exclusively reserved for the people of Gilgit Baltistan and Pakistani Occupied Jammu and Kashmir.
Pakistan has put all eggs in the basket of the CPEC, which has, apart from economic, geo-political, strategic and social implication for Pakistan and the region. However, the Government is not even prepared to look at the counter narrative, even though they know a lot is at stake. There are Pakistani experts who can make a positive contribution to the narrative on the CPEC. The society has been divided in to two camps: pro CPEC and anti CPEC groups. Whereas the Pro CPEC group is encouraged and provided with all the propaganda tools to support the Government and the CPEC; those who have genuine questions regarding the Project are discouraged to speak out.
Criticism on CPEC by Pakistani writers
Unfortunately, as it has always been the case in Pakistan, any genuine question about the role of army, secret agencies and the government is perceived as anti Pakistan. Similarly the CPEC has been presented as a holy cow not to be criticised. A Pakistani writer, Ahsan Malik in his article, CPEC – An Alternate Perspective, writes, pro CPEC narrative: ‘is largely based on bombast repetition with less focus on facts and more on proclamation of myths, neglecting actual ground difficulties and over-all impact analysis, their approach is overly simplified that pro-CPEC means pro-Pakistan and if anyone speaks against CPEC in any sense of the meaning whatsoever, then it means they are definitely an enemy of Pakistan or a foreign stooge. This abrogated practice is denting the positive-critical thinking phenomenon, marginalizing people and factions who are willing to put efforts to evaluate the impact of CPEC on the basis of facts and figures feel shy of sharing their opinion due to fear of prejudice oriented bashing barrage from this all in all pro CPEC entourage. 1
Silencing views of those who have ability to present a counter narrative; and which can help to enhance the benefits of the CPEC is not a pro Pakistan policy. It may help the Government to present one sided view for political gains; but surely it will be counterproductive in the long run. People of Pakistan and the Government officials need to know that when a contract is made between two unequal partners, generally it is the stronger partner which has the final say. It is feared that the CPEC is also between two unequal partners from economic, military and strategic aspects; and the Chinese will always have an upper hand in dealing with matters related to the CPEC.
Pakistani policy makers need to understand that closing eyes like a pigeon does not remove the danger or solve the problems. Pakistani markets are already flooded with the Chinese goods and damaging the Pakistani industries. Pakistan and China signed a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) which came effective in July 2007, and a study by Pakistan Business Council in 2013 revealed that FTA did not benefit Pakistan. The Commerce Ministry at that time looked in hurry to conclude an agreement without doing its homework or even consulting with the Private sector. The result is Pakistan is already stumbling under 5 billion US dollar trade deficit with China.
Similar urgency and lack of homework and transparency is associated with the CPEC, and the future generations will surely question rationale of this, as the Project will harm Pakistan’s national interests. Since the Government policies are inconsistent, and their main agenda seems to be winning the next general elections scheduled to be held in 2018; rather than serious economic projects that will benefit Pakistan in the long run.
Moreover, a serious concern is about income from the CPEC. It is declared that Gawadar will be a tax free port. If that is the case, it means Pakistan won’t be charging any duty on the materials/goods Chinese will be exporting or importing via Gwadar. Doesn’t this mean Pakistan will be deprived of valuable income? In any case, where is the income going to come especially when it is still not clear if Pakistan will be charging any toll tax from the Chinese? It is quite possible that Pakistan may not charge China anything as they did not charge the American containers which went to Afghanistan during the war there. Ahsan Malik asks:
This raises a serious question about what we are actually going to get from CPEC. A number of power plants? Series of roads and infrastructures to be developed by Chinese for their own use? A few hospitals financed on blur terms? How is Pakistan going to repay the Chinese debts? What will be the real source of revenue for Pakistan from CPEC?
The Pakistani business community is uncertain, and to some extent, nervous and scared because there could be ‘massive dumping of goods’ and smuggling of goods. Nawaz Sharif may win the next elections on the back of the CPEC projects and some improvements in energy sector; but will the Government be able to provide sufficient electricity to the industry that can meet the production targets; or they have to close their mills and shift to Bangladesh or some other country?
In view of the above attitude to work and the CPEC, lack of transparency and hidden aspects of the CPEC one wonders if the CPEC has the ability to change the fortunes of citizens of Pakistan. Or it will mainly help Chinese to advance their agenda in the Arabian Sea, the Indian Ocean and the Central Asia. Furthermore, the CPEC will help to sustain Chinese economic growth and develop underdeveloped Western China.
Conclusion
For the CPEC to be successful and beneficial to people of Pakistan, Gilgit Baltistan and Pakistani Administered Kashmir, it is absolutely essential that there is complete harmony among all the Pakistani provinces, and Gilgit Baltistan. Also it is extremely important that all the Pakistani stakeholders are on the same page, and they understand what is written on that page and what is required to be done. Unity of thought and action will enhance Pakistani position when dealing with the bigger and stronger partner in the CPEC. Alas, that is what is missing; and if anyone points this out he/she will be projected as anti Pakistan or agent of a foreign country.
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