Ashok Bhan
Kashmir has been on burn for more than 27 years. Tens of thousands of people, from young to soldiers lost their lives and population of Kashmiri Pandits exiled.It is the time for a holistic political process to kick in,drawing from past efforts and adopting best practices from around the world on resolving such unrest.New Delhi needs to approach the issues keeping in sight the fact that India”s strategic interests are intertwined with the good will of the” Valley”s ordinary People including Kashmiri Pandits” and not the land alone..Before the new age violent upsurge yet again gets out of hand, New Delhi needs to deal with the issues in hand with a grand vision.
There is a worrying turn of events in JK State.The changing character of the insurgency/militancy is a serious warning signal that “an urgent Course Correction” at all the levels of Governance, is required to prevent the escalation and its shift to radicalization.One of the causes of the new age turbulence could be the betrayal of the democratic expectations.The aspirations and expectations were roused by the election campaign and frequent visits and speeches of PM Modi. Formation of PDP-BJP coalition further fueled the hopes that through a legitimate political process within ” Kashmiriyat ,Jamooriyat and Insaniyat” the political aspirations would be addressed and there will be socio-economic empowerment that takes care of youth and the other sections.
The current spurt of upsurge is against the betrayal of promises,which took the toll of 50 lives ,injuring thousands and pallet blinding of several by excessive use of force. These sacrifices have yet thrown up opportunity for the political leadership to strengthen the political process and engage with all the stake holders for finding a meaningful answer to the people”s aspirations.
Paying attention to Kashmir by PM Modi himself and his team will be beneficial.Political dialogue with all the stake holders and their political empowerment other than a small political class of coalition partners in JK Govt.becomes important.The exiled Kashmiri Pandits and the Youth whose participation in the elections made a huge difference are the most important component of the political process.The educated youth going towards militancy in large numbers is a serious cause of concern. Large scale avenues of employment for the needy youth may have to be created. Kashmiris are longing for peace,economic and political empowerment”.Sub Ka Sath Sub Ka Vikas”has to be the real mantra for large scale development and full economic bloom.
RELATIONS with PAKISTAN
Nawaz Sharief’s brazen claim that Kashmir is likely to be annexed and merged as a part of Pakistan has shocked the Kashmiris. Kashmiris termed that apolitical and undiplomatic. The theory of third option-Right to self determination for Azadi is made irrelevant and so is the Separatist struggle rendered redundant. Pakistan has made its real agenda known to Kashmiris that all its so called military support,exporting terrorists to Kashmir and inflicting death and destruction agenda on Kashmiris is meant to enslave Kashmiris in the failed Nation called Pakistan. Kashmiris have always rejected Pakistan as an option then, when MA Jinhah Sb. proposed and they rejected it when Sharief pleads now. Jammu & Kashmir State has acceded to India.The present unrest is a manifestation of People”s assertion for protection of its (sub-national) distinct cultural and Constitutional entity within the larger entity of Union Of India and the sub-continent.Kashmir is Unique and Distinct historically, geographically,culturally,spiritually and politically and shall remain so for all times.
The relations with Pakistan have been defined by the partition of British India in 1947, the Kashmir conundrum and the military conflicts fought between the two Countries.The relations have always been plaughed by conflicts,hostilities and suspicion,despite the two south Asian Countries share the common linguistic, cultural, geographical and economic linkages.
There have been three military wars,continuing undeclared war,numerous skirmishes and stand offs,Many successful attempts to improve relations through Shimla agreement,Agra and Lahore summits.The relations soured after Saichen conflict of 1980,Kashmir insurgency of 1989 onwards,Kargil conflict of 1999. Terror attack on Indian Parliament in 2001 almost brought two nuclear nations to a brink of war.Mumbai terror attack of 2008 by Pakistani terrorists,killing hundreds of innocent people gave severe blow to the relations.The Pathankot and several terror attacks on Indian soil and perennial terrorist activities in JK State and unnecessary intervention in the internal affairs perticularly in Kashmir situation continue to distract the real and meaningful talks with Pakistan.
Recently PM Modi frankly hinted in a television interview that unless the democratic and Military power centers in Pakistan are on same page on the agenda of peace talks for good neighborly relations of the two Countries ,the whole exercise becomes futile.
Modi and his team after becoming the Prime Minister in 2014, carved a policy of friendship with Pakistan and build strong relationship even to fight the menace of terrorism together despite Pakistan having created and fed snakes of terror in its backyard. Modi”s visits to UAE and other central Asian Countries in mid 2015 were aimed to garner support against terrorism in the region besides tapping their energy resources which Region could benefit from.Despite friendly policy articulated by PM Modi.
No dialogue with India has become the policy narrative of the Military brass and the foreign policy experts in Pakistan.The grounded students of international relations including myself,always advocated that “IN Diplomacy dialogue can never cease”.No foreign policy of any Nation State can run without engagement and dialogue,that is the Jurisprudence of International relations.
Modi”s dramatic turn about on engagement with Pakistan ,his acceptance of a tele invite of Nawaz Sharief and his unprecedented stop over for a meeting with PM Nawaz Sharief was a huge Diplomatic Surprise and an astute political move.Modi continues to keep the wamath of relations with Nawaz Sharief even now.
Several theories were making rounds at that time.Most people attributed it to friendly counsel by Barrack Obama to Modi for facilitating USA smooth end game in Afghanistan .Because India-Pakistan tensions will complicate matters for US end game. Modi was alerted by a wide advise about the implications of closer China-Pakistan relations as Beijing is trying to remake geography through grand infrastructure projects.PM Modi went ahead with the hand of friendship to Pakistan.The two Countries had agreed for “comprehensive bilateral dialogue”.
PM MODI was criticised and asked unpalatable questions such as :IS IT A CLIMB DOWN,or at least,A SOFTENING of Modi”s earlier position-? For good students of diplomacy ,it might not be wise to rub this point in BUT THE ANSWER is ,of course YES.IT was a change that deserved welcome,respect and admiration for the institutional advise PM MODI receives.
The NSG happenings have now vindicated experts of a particular opinion.
If my memory serves me well,the comprehensive dialogue process is rooted in 1997 SAARC Summit where the PMs of both the countries agreed to create such a process but unfortunately it survived only until 26/11 terror attack in Mumbai after which it was suspended. The visit of Ms. Sushma Swaraj was being looked as a great success towards the revival of structured dialogue at a time of the 30th anniversary of SAARC.
Prime Minister Modi’s reach to Islamabad was even seen progressive as that would domestically help him to move his party, BJP,from right to Centre, so that his credentials are internally recognized as a moderate leader of India. Modi’s friendly relations with US will always be helpful in moving ahead with the structure dialogue with Pakistan. US is always concerned about the regional security in South Asia. US experts feel that India-Pakistan tensions will complicate and spoil US’s interest in the region. In India, the foreign policy expert including myself, wish to alert Prime Minister Modi about the implications of China-Pakistan close relations as Beijing is trying to remake geography by launching huge infrastructure bridges on the borders. Therefore, engagement at a comprehensive level with Pakistan and try for resolution of issues becomes diplomatically important despite its belligerence.
PM Modi may not be able to transact any big issue with Pakistan. Pakistan always wants business on Siachen,water issues and Sir Creek which, in turn, is always difficult. Kashmir is used only as a bargaining chip.India will not agree for any third party inter-locution. India does not buy any formula on Kashmir except the good friendly and neighborly/trade relations. The terror and talks cannot go together. But this time, Pakistan had assured that there would be speedy trial for the 26/11 Mumbai terrorists in Pakistan. Thus, the only issue which can find an agreement is enhanced trade relations and other economic developments schemes but that too make take some time to materialize. Conducting frequent talks at different levels, which do not yield satisfying outcomes is part of diplomacy, India and its Prime Minister is to be seen as a participant in the process of buying peace with the hostile neighboring country to promote his credentials as a modernizer internationally. The BJP-RSS combine that forms political support base for PM Modi and his team has to change its political narrative from the right wing rhetoric to a tolerant and moderate political discourse, backing up the Prime Minister’s all out political and diplomatic efforts so that he is recognized as a moderate Prime Minister. The PM Modi can only then focus the public mind on the prospects of resolving the big issues of the country.
(The Author is Senior Advocate Chairman,(Kashmir policy and strategy group)
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