Anil Anand
Punjab was all set for a triangular contest with enigmatic Aaam Aadmi Party clearly surging ahead. The reason being, fed up with Shiromani Akali Dal-BJP combine and Congress people of the state particularly the peasantry visualised a clear alternative in AAP. And that to a great extent was politically correct also till the tide started turning.
Not that the SAD-BJP ruling coalition or the Congress, the two traditional rivals in the state’s politics, have done something extraordinary forcing a gradual shift in AAP’s position as favourites to win the elections. Certainly AAP was the pivot when it landed in Punjab poll arena. From locals to the Punjabis sitting anywhere in India to elsewhere in other parts of the world, they had pinned their hopes on AAP to provide an alternative model of governance promised by the party chairman Arvind Kejriwal.
Despite the party’s controversial run in Delhi where AAP government under Kejriwal is embroiled in one controversy or the other, either of its own making or that of the BJP-led Centre, it continued to be visualised as an alternative in Punjab. It would be naive to say that AAP is out of reckoning now. It is still very much there and remains to be a pivot but with a different connotation.
The erosion started with a split in the party following expulsion of its Punjab convenor Sucha Singh Chotepur followed by cricketer turned politician Navjot Singh Sidhu’s episode of ‘will he or will he not’ side with the AAP; either by joining the party or aligning with it his newly afloat Awaz-e-Punjab which he subsequently declared it to be apolitical in nature.
AAP still is the pivot. Firstly, it is very much among the top runners if not the top one. Secondly and very importantly peasantry and other sections of the society fed up with SAD-BJP dispensation’s misgovernance saw in AAP someone who could dare and defeat the combine particularly Akalis as BJP has bare minimum presence. This is also a fact that these Punjabis were much more interested in ensuring Akali Dal defeated than an AAP victory. A perception, slowly developing, about the weakening of AAP’s capacity to defeat Akali Dal can trigger a change in mind among the people.
There is a buzz to this regard but a perception about AAP’s weakening is still to take a full shape. But the one noticeable change is that no one at this juncture is betting on the party as a clear winner as was the case say two or three months back.
The pivotal role has shown a gradual shift as the months passed by. Earlier it was the pivot as a front runner with all others revolving around it. Lately its pivotal role is that with factors hitting its credibility, how and who (read Akalis and Congress) would gain if any slide in the AAP graph takes shape. Others still continue to revolve around it but for different reasons.
There is another aspect to the AAP’s changing pivotal role. Both Akalis and Congress, particularly the former, facing heavy anti-incumbency, is banking heavily on splitting of votes between Congress and AAP to romp home victorious. Akalis are sure that in such a scenario their traditional vote bank would remain united and would steer them out of the crisis and regain power. It might not be so this time. Most of the Akali supporters are farmers and with AAP’s concerted campaign focused on Akali’s failing the peasantry, it would be rather difficult for veteran Akali leader and chief minister Parkash Singh Badal to take their support for-granted.
A weakened AAP in the face of dissensions particularly Chotepur factor as he has already floated a political party of his own, would only lead to confusion particularly in the rural areas. As is evident it has verticallly split the Punjab unit of AAP in the middle. Many of the grassroots leaders and workers are backing him ignoring appeals of their Delhi based national leaders.
Although Sidhu is still to decide his political course, amidst reports that he is in talks with both Congress and AAP, he would only add to the confusion. It is unbelievable that he would witness the electoral battle sitting on the wings with his lips zipped. If not direct participation, he would certainly play a strong role from outside to damage Akalis with no clarity whom would his move benefit in the ultimate scheme of things.
The unexpected implosion in AAP during the last few weeks has given a reason to rejoice to Akali Dal and Congress. They have started fathoming their chances in the impending Assembly elections where there were either bleak or none (for Akalis at least). The pressure clearly is more on ruling Akali Dal than Congress. The strong anti-incumbency factor apart, which AAP is exploiting to the hilt, Badals also have to face the consequences of any act of omission and commission of the BJP-led coalition at the Centre. Akali Dal is not only an ally at the Centre but has a cabinet minister in Harsimrat Kaur Badal who is the daughter-in-law of Prakash Singh Badal.
The state government’s order directing people living within 10 kilometres of the International Border to vacate their villages in view of building tension with Pakistan, has given more fuel to both Kejriwal and Congress leader Amrinder Singh to target Badal senior. They charged the chief minister of ordering evacuation without any perceptible war threat and resultant armed forces movement on the border, only to accrue electoral benefit to him and his party. In fact, Amrinder has already drawn a programme to spend days on the border to study situation and show solidarity with the affected people.
The tirade seems to have hit Prakash Singh Badal where it matters the most. And in came the withdrawal of order without assigning any reason. This episode speaks volumes about the confusion setting-in in Punjab ahead of elections.
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