Socialism, globalisation, what next?

By J. D. Sethi

Nothing describes India' present situation better than the following anonymous Chinese saying quoted by Perry Link in China in Transformation: "We are like a big fish that has been pulled from the water and is flopping wildly to find its way back in. In such a condition, the fish never asks where the next flip or flop will bring it. It senses only that its present position is intolerable and that something else must be tried".

At the threshold of the next millennium, India is like the Chinese fish, flip-flopping. She finds its present situation unacceptable, but does not know where its next toss will take it. What is our position in the comity of nations more than 50-years after regaining Independence? Going by social indicators, we continue to be at the bottom in any global study. Looking back, the current century, which is coming to a close in a few months, was one of missed opportunities.

The first half was a period of political subjugation. The following 40-years (up to 1990) were spent in courting socialism. Through sheer intellectual terrorism, the Left foreclosed all possibilities of honest debate on any issue of national importance. Those who dared to disagree, the establishment pack, led by the Left, called them names. Those who refused to fall in the line were branded CIA agents. The role models those days were the Soviet Union, Eastern Europe and China. Their "spectacular achievements" in various fields, based on fudged figures and false claims, were publicised. The Indian establishment quoted all these dubious claims as testimonials of success of centralised planning and the socialist system. Because of this myopic approach, we ended up having the inspector-permit-quota Raj in India. The creative potential of the people was shackled.

There was a discount on hard work, competence and entrepreneurship, and a premium on the capacity to manipulate and corrupt the system. While black money multiplied with every Five-Year plan, an atmosphere of hostility was sought to be built against those who tried to make honest money. As a result, we started losing the global race for progress. Under the British rule, our share in global trade was 2 per cent; it has since been reduced to less than 0.5 per cent.

Today, we know the truth about the erstwhile USSR. But, China is still being sold as a success story. Is it not ironical that the same set of people who held China as an example of success, continue to do so even today, though that country has reversed its economic policies? It has now a capitalist system working under a communist dictatorship. This weird approach only underlines the mindset of our elite.

Following the disintegration of the Soviet Union, China started flirting with market economy. The myth about the socialist model has thus finally exploded. This naturally has had its effect on India. With one god failing, the Indian elite needed another. Overnight, it discovered that the economy had been "mismanaged" in the past. The World Bank-IMF combine, the villains so far, emerged as saviours. The Don Quixotes of the elite set upon the task of demolishing the new-found demons, such as the PSUs and the tariff barriers. Reforms have become the new mantra. But who was responsible for "deforming" the economy in the first place? Those who should have been held accountable for the loss of four decades of opportunities are now heading the reforms brigade with the same zeal.

The public sector, which was to have "commanding heights" in the economy earlier, has now become a favourite whipping boy of the very same establishment. In the wake of "reforms," the Government equity in the PSUs is being disinvested. But, the proceeds from disinvestment are not being used either to modernise or make the PSUs competitive. Instead, successive governments have used the money to bridge the fiscal deficit. In other words, the family silver is being sold to meet day-to-day expenses. In short, the Indian fish has flip-flopped to another extreme without bothering to find out where its new toss is going to take it.

Where does India stand today after nearly eight years of affair with "reforms" and "globalisation"? Great hopes were pinned on the role of the foreign direct investment to help India solve its problems in various sectors of the economy. In the five first years, not even a megawatt of power was added either by the Indian or foreign players. Not a kilometre of road was built. Airports, railways and ports continued to be clogged in the absence of any addition to capacity. Only recently, the Government seems to have realised the inherent dangers in neglecting the infrastructure. A number of policy initiatives have been taken.

The Government has set up a special task force on infrastructure under the chairmanship of the Deputy Chairman of the Planning Commission, with a view to expediting the ongoing projects and clearing new ones by removing all legal and institutional bottlenecks in consultation with the ministries and departments concerned. A mega power project policy to expedite the implementation of these projects has been put in place. The Prime Minister has announced building of five new world class international airports and a decision has been taken to corporatise the airports of Mumbai, Delhi, Chennai, Calcutta and Bangalore. The Government has also flagged off an ambitious road development programme aimed at upgrading the existing network and creating new cross-country corridors and expressways.

The fruits of these policy pronouncements will take their own time to come by. But, our past sins of neglecting infrastructure and agriculture are fast catching up with us. Meanwhile, the economy is still in a decelerating mode. The GDP growth, which registered a revival in the mid-nineties to an average of 7 per cent plus _ largely on account of greater utilisation of existing capacities _ has been decelerating over the past two years, and during the current fiscal it is expected to be barely 5 per cent. Industrial growth, which peaked to 12.7 per cent in 1995-96, decelerated to less than 6 per cent during 1996-97 and 1997-98, and is expected to be less than 5 per cent during this year. Agriculture, which recorded a growth of 4 per cent during the Eighth Plan period, registered a negative growth of (-) 3 per cent in 1997-98 and may at best neutralise this setback in 1999-2000. Exports are stagnating and infrastructural lags persist.

What is gratifying is that there has emerged a broad political consensus on one of the tenets of economic policy, namely liberalisation. But, there remains a lot of confusion and opaqueness so far as sectoral policies and strategies and issues connected with globalisation are concerned. Unless we are able to crystallise these policies and strategies at the macro and micro levels, we shall not be able to forge ahead on a sustained growth path.

However, certain things are clear. A country of India's size cannot develop on the strength of foreign investment alone. We cannot transplant the capitalist system (as practised in the US and Europe) on the Indian soil and hope to reap fruits of progress. Our problems are unique and without precedent, so will have to be our solutions.

We should also reflect on why the State, that is the Government, is unable to trigger the Indian people and the economy. This is because of the wide gap between the mindset of the English-educated Indians constituting the Indian establishment, which includes the Government and the press, and Indian society at large. While the establishment is keen that the Western model be installed, the ground reality rejects the Western prescriptions, whether it was of the socialist variety, as up to 1990, or of the free market type, as afterwards. The establishment thinks that technical talent in India is produced in engineering colleges and IITs. The reality is that it is only where the people have taken to economic activity in a big way that grassroot-level development has taken place. This is illustrated by how Ludhiana, Batala, Rajkot, Varanasi, Morvi, Jamnagar, Tirupur, Sivakasi, Surat, etc., have developed. Almost the entire development has taken place in these places by the efforts of local communities and without any advanced education. There are hundreds of places like these all over the country. Mercedes cars are repaired in India by roadside mechanics and Indian agriculturists know extensively about agriculture.

It is traditional communities and the ordinary people of India who have built trade and commerce in a big way. That is why the share of the corporate sector in the GDP of India is only 12 per cent and that of the non-corporate sector is about 40 per cent. It is this sector that weathered the socialist onslaught and, again, it is this sector that is facing up to the competition of the multinational companies (MNCs). Whether it is the Ramgadia community of Punjab or the Patels of Gujarat or the weavers of Tirupur or the Nadars of Tamil Nadu or the blacksmiths of other places, it is they who have done the productive work. But the Indian establishment has not yet come to terms with how and why tradition works in economics. In fact, it is not even aware of it. Unless the establishment begins to understand the real strength of India, it will not be possible to trigger economic growth in this country.

In the first 40-years of Independence, we suffered because the establishment led by the Left did not allow honest debate on any issue. One finds the same level of intellectual intolerance on issues concerning globalisation and Swadeshi. If we do not rid ourselves of pre-conceived notions and engage ourselves in a genuine search for practical solutions, in all likelihood we will be undertaking yet another exercise of "reforms", some time in the turn of the century. INAV

NDA Government and challenges ahead

By : Babu Ram Sharma

The 70 member NDA Government under the premiership of Mr Atal Behari Vajpayee assured the reins of office on the 13th of October, 1999. Hopefully, the Government with its around 300 members in the 543 member Lok Sabha (including four seats elections to which are be conducted within this month) will run its full term of five years in the spirit of ''Dharma''. Apparently there is no threat to the stability of the Government even though it is in-built in it by virtue of its constituting 24 parties and groups from the States represented on it. In this context the sacrifice made by the BJP which cemented the NDA to mutual gains is worthy of mention: BJP this time contested only about 330 Lok Sabha seats as against 540 seats previously. It left the remaining seats to its allies in deference to the wishes of George Fernandes (Defence Minister) and other allies. BJP secured 182 seats as against 180 seats earlier but her allies made handsome gains. Resultantly, the Congress, AIADMK, Laloo and his RJD etc were cut to size reducing materially their threat perception to NDA stability. The ultimate benefit is NDA stable Government with BJP-retaining key portfolios and also striking foot-hold in the southern states by virtue of alliance with like-minded state parties under the stewardship of Mr Vajpayee. Be that as it may, tall promises and tardy reliefs by the Government are not going to cut any ice with the experienced electorate. It is plain-speaking and result-oriented execution of operations, accountability and performance which can carry conviction with the people.

The fundamental needs of the people are internal and external security, economic development, avenues of employment, training facilities, vocationalisation, merit based higher education to develop necessary human resource, adequate wages, fair prices, taxes, provision and expansion of facilities and basic needs of the society (such as food, water, clothing, housing, medical, education, sanitation fuel, electricity, roads and transport etc).

We do hope that the Govt will effectively also tackle problems of militancy, corruption, price-rise, population explosion and atune defence in the recent 'Kargil' context and defence alliance of Pakistan and China particularly targeted against India. The Government has promised to create ''tolerant society, free from discrimination, fear and security, economic reforms, infrastructure development, fiscal ractitude etc''. The climate for fulfilling these functions of the Government is quite favourable: Industrial and agriculture production are picking up, prices are under check despite economic sanctions by USA, inflation is low, BSE Sensex is highly sound.

It is also welcome that for the first time the Govt. under the able leadership of Vajpayee has been able to forge good relations with the big powers in matters of peace and security. His handling of 'Kargil-crisis' with statesmanship and besides mobilising world support more particularly that of US, UK, Russia in containing trans-border terrorism are laudable. Gainful national achievements, honesty, efficiency, ability, experience, correct-decisions and quick conscientious execution of operations are called for from the executive at all the levels. Unfortunately, there is a grave crisis of character in the national ethos with stark nepotism, corruption, communal politics, casteism, regionalism, populism for vote-catching, meritless indefinite reservations in admissions, recruitments and promotions, subsidies of sorts (in food, fertilizers, agriculture, water supply, electricity, transport, education, oils and gas etc) and unproductive reliefs, not solving problems of migrants etc are drains on exchequer. They should be eroded gradually if not quickly. There are sick public undertakings and many other white elephants which are a burden on Govt. They must be disposed of or rejuvenated quickly. It is important to emphasise that there is a growing concern in recent years, throughout the world on 'Good Governance'. The world Development Report 1997 has been aptly titled 'The State in Changing World' and in its forward the President of the World Bank has observed'' History has repeatedly shown that Good Govt is not a luxury but a vital necessity. Without an effective state, sustainable development both economic and social is impossible''. In the forward to ''the British citizens charter- A compendium''- John Major former PM of UK says that public services are not for the convenience of those who work in them. They exist to serve the needs of individual people, be they customers, parents or passengers. This ethic has always motivated the best of our public servants, the nurses, the Police, the teachers and others. Through citizens charter we have set new standards and targets with performance tables for schools, hospitals, local Authorities, Police, Fire services etc.

There is a real change of culture in our public services etc.'' We also need such a character and its implementation in letter and spirit to make our public services responsive to public needs and grievances. So as to ensure good governance the Prime Minister has appealed to the Opposition parties to shun their negative approach to Government Public policies and programmes but on the other hand co-operate with the government by their constructive dissent, empowerment of women and Lok Pal Bill etc. to tackle corruption which percolates from the top to lower levels. We hope the national challenges will be adequately met, opportunities availed of to maximise the economic utilisation of the vast resources of the country with created capital, approved borrowings and investments, both domestic and foreign, for productive purposes. Reduction of population explosion, non-productive expenditures by economy truthfully abjuring corruption and spending public money for the approved public purposes in the patriotic spirit. ''The new century demands a new mindset'' and internationally competitive expertise for home and foreign services. This expertise needs merit and not mediocrity. We may help the poor, the backward etc with scholarships, free accommodation, books, instruments, exemption of fees but there should be no compromise on selection of mediocres on any ground more particularly in the critical sectors.

The non-partisan agenda of the NDA, efficiency of the Government and its dedicated commitment to public concerns for ensuring peace, progress and prosperity of the country are the gate-way to taking the country to the 21st century! We wish all success to the Government in this national task and endeavour for which not only co-operation of the Opposition but also that of the people in general is needed.

General from Delhi captures Islamabad
TALES OF TRAVESTY

By Dr. Jitendra Singh

In the early months of 1972, just 25 years after the partition of the Indian subcontinent, when Zulfikar Ali Bhutto took over the reins in Islamabad at a time when the subcontinent's pre-partition generation was at its prime, there were jubilations among the Sindhi community not only in Pakistan but also in India. The Sindhi community of Bombay, from where Zulfikar Ali Bhutto originally hailed, unhesitatingly celebrated the elevtion of one from amongst them to one of the most pristine positions in the subcontinent. Nonetheless, Bhutto was a mass leader thrown up by a democratic process after protracted spells of dictatorial rule first by Gen Ayub Khan and later by Gen Yahya Khan.

Few years later, when Bhutto was overthrown by another General called Zia-ul-Haq, there were no jubilations either in Pakistan or in India. Yet, Gen Zia was shrewd enough to consciously reiterate his composite pre-partition background as a Punjabi from Jullundhar who had obtained his graduation degree from Delhi's St Stephen College. It is a different matter, however, that Gen Zia's declared fondness for the Indian singer Lata Mangeshkar or the Indian poet Kunwar Mahendra Singh Bedi did not deter him from planning and laying the foundations for a virulent anti-India proxy war in Jammu and Kashmir. Meanwhile, to his own people in Pakistan, Gen Zia -ul-Haq promised to hold elections within 90 days but went on to rule for 10 years before a violent mid-air explosion forcibly cut short his autocratic rein.

History seems to be repeating once again. General Parvez Musharraf too, like Gen Zia-ul-Haq, happens to be of Indian origin though unlike Zia-ul-Haq or Bhutto who were both grown up young men when they migrated to Pakistan, Gen Musharraf was hardly a five year old boy when he left his native city Delhi to settle in Pakistan. Very much like Gen Zia-ul-Haq who spoke of holding elections within 90 days, Gen Musharraf too speaks of reviving the democratic process "as soon as the time is congenial" .... but, who shall decide this time or timing --- this only the General knows.

It is obvious that in the weeks and months to come, Gen Parvez Musharraf shall be guided neither by his proclaimed concern for democracy nor by his proclaimed keenness for friendly neighbourly relations with India. The sole consideration guiding Gen Musharraf's future moves will be his prospects of continuing in power for as long as he can while simultaneously keeping in good humour the Pakistan Army as well as the US lobby.

As for India, although apparently there may seem to be a setback to the much publicised "Bus diplomacy" initiated during the democratic regime of Nawaz Sharif but, on the ground, there is more to it than meets the eye. What is essential to be realised is that in Islamabad it is the Army which calls the shots irrespective of whether the head of the State is a democratically elected Prime Minister or an Army Chief. This is evident from the fact that the Pakistan Army lost no time in seeking to prove the futility of Nawaz Sharif's Lahore initiative by resorting to Kargil intrusion. It can therefore be reasonably concluded that there is going to be no decline in the Pakistan sponsored militancy in Kashmir --- atleast in the foreseeable future.

The only redemption lies in the possible resurgence of the will, courage and conviction among the common people of Pakistan to assert their right for a democratic self-rule and a peaceful co-existence with India. To that extent, the common man in Pakistan shares the same aspirations as the common man in India --- very much as Umapathy's wishful plea to his rulers is reflected in the poetic plea by his Pakistani counterpart "Woh Chahta To Masaail Sulajh Bhi Sakte The, Khud Apne Ghar Ko Tamaasha Bana Liya Usne!"

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