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Thirty five percent increase in diesel oil prices can be viewed from various angles. It may look harsh and somewhat opportunistic in that increase is announced soonafter mid-term poll is over. This means electoral compulsions and the last year's experience ......more In an eloquent exposition of 'Madrassas' in the valley, Chief Minister Dr Farooq Abdullah minces in words in describing these as 'mercenary schools' instead of being 'missionary schools'......more |
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Pakistan's Kashmir annexation
wars The official way to The one and half |
EDITORIAL Thirty five percent increase in diesel oil prices can be viewed from various angles. It may look harsh and somewhat opportunistic in that increase is announced soonafter mid-term poll is over. This means electoral compulsions and the last year's experience of 'onion tears' that affected fortunes of the BJP-led alliance was the sole factor that delayed the announcement of steep hike in Diesel prices. To be precise, at least three increases became due during the last six months. The Government as per laid down policy of the predecessors of linking diesel prices to international crude/diesel price and reviewing it every month either way was well within limits to go for the hike. It however decided to put it on hold because of mid-term poll. To that extent consumers of all hues have indeed benefitted substantially to a minimum of Rs 4000 crore which would have otherwise accrued to the combined oil pool. It is worth recalling that ever since this linkage to international prices in 1997 diesel price in India has been reviewed both upward and downward nine times. At least on two occasions prices came down. As regards justification for hike when new Government is going to be in place in another week's time, it is to be recorded that petroleum products price have invariable tryst with midnight announcement bypassing Parliament. This has been so all these five decades. During UF Government's spell under HD Devegowda, a steep hike of 30% was announced within five days of new Government taking over. Subsequently under persistent pressure from supporting parties it was rolled back by 15% only to be reimposed again four month's hence. This jugglery of midnight imposts and increases in relation to all petroleum products is therefore an old game and present Government cannot be faulted for hike which was infact overdue. To be precise, diesel prices have increased in international markets by 65% while hike announced by Government is only 35%. Second, there is an oil pool which has been going in the red over the last few months. The Government makes a profit of Rs 5000 crore from pegging up petrol prices. It does not subsidise diesel prices which are linked to international prices. But the real problem is kerosene oil which consumes a subsidy of as much as 10,000 crore annually besides the LPG which still has a subsidy of 2000 crore. It is this burden of 12000 crore that is sought to be partly made good from pegging up petrol prices and those of the lubricants and other byproducts. The latest hike in diesel would net Rs 6000 crore during the current fiscal which is left with only six months. To that extent oil pool deficit would go down substantially. Third, consumers should ready themselves for another hike in LPG cylinder which costs the country around Rs 210 but sold for Rs 160. As regards kerosene its cost works out around Rs 9 per litre but sold for only Rs 3 a litre. No Government has mustered enough of courage to decrease subsidy element on kerosene. That is why it remains the major adulterant as also thrives in black market. That explains its recurring shortage as regards availability to consumers. One can as well delve into its impact on economy vis-a-vis inflation. There is absolutely no doubt that railway fares would be hiked because of near total dieselisation. Transporters would also increase charges. Same is true of other bulk and small consumers including hikes in matador fares. The total impact as regards inflation rate could be one percent cumulative i.e from 2% it would go up to 3% within weeks. This rate is quite tolerable and our economy can easily absorb it. There is the likelihood of hike in petrol but its percentage may not more than 5. With easy availability of all commodities at reasonable prices, an inflation rate of upto 5% is normal feature of any developing economy. As regards opportunistic increase , one can mention 15% hike announced by Rajasthan Government in electricity tariff soonafter elections are over. Other States which have been with-holding hikes due to elections are going in for many hikes to plug the deficit. To that extent diesel price increase howsoever unsavoury is all the same inevitable because deficit financing is the greatest curse for any economy. With oil pool deficit substantially reduced, oil companies have better cushion for operating in world market. It may be mentioned that crude prices of oil per barrel have jumped up from $ 10 to above $ 20 during the last few months because oil producing countries have cut production jointly as per quota earmarked for each producer. There is no likelihood of crude prices sliding down in the near future unless oil exporting countries fall apart and increase their production which is artificially pegged down right now. In an eloquent exposition of 'Madrassas' in the valley, Chief Minister Dr Farooq Abdullah minces in words in describing these as 'mercenary schools' instead of being 'missionary schools'. He elaborates the theme by describing that these madrassas have bred hatred for others and intolerance which in turn provides enough of breeding ground for fundamentalism. Instead of imparting Islamic teachings, Madrassas mostly financed and sustained by foreign funds through fundamentalist organisations on the pay roll of Pakistan have been busy indoctrinating young minds and poisoning the brains with heavy dose of fundamentalism. Education is meant to improve quality of life and broadening of outlook so that the upcoming generation can compete their way out. Madrassas on the other hand continue to produce only terrorists and gun-wielders who do not fit into modern civilisation. They can never be an asset to any nation nor such a nation or State ever progress. No religion teaches hatred but here are these madrassas that openly preach not only hatred but turn out product that is liability unto itself. It is good that Chief Minister has raked up this topic and done some plain speaking on the ill-effects of such third-rate education being imparted in Islamic schools. In fact, he goes to the extent of attributing ongoing insurgency to such madrassas which have mushroomed in valley and all successive Governments have failed to check their nefarious acts against the State and the country. The million dollar question is why even after being in the full know of such terrorist breeding centres which he aptly mentions as not missionary but mercenary schools any visible action remains elusive. Once the Government knows that they are not functioning as per laid down norms and spreading venom and disharmony thereby killing secularism and undermining constitution, still no action has been taken by the Government. Doctor has diagnosed the malaise correctly but refuses to prescribe proper medicines. One really does not know why such noble profession meant for the good of mankind is not being scrupulously followed. The tragedy gets compounded in that Government has all the inputs not only to take on those sustaining such madrassas but also those coming out of it and yet deciding to call it a day. It is no use crying over spilt milk. Either convert it into cheese or remove the ingredients that have polluted the pure milk. After all NC Government need not have any apprehensions in that it commands two-third majority in the assembly. What it lacks is the will to remove the sources of terrorism. Even now it is not too late to wind up these mercenary schools. |
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Pakistan's
Kashmir annexation wars The Jammu and Kashmir Liberation Front (JKLF) once again planned crossing the Line of Actual Control (LoC) on 4 October, and Pakistan government had decided to "keep quiet, and let the Indian Army "do the job". But in the face of a very stiff warning by India, Pakistan government took preventive measures and did not allow JKLF activists to cross the LoC. In 1992 the Pakistan Army had thwarted a similar move by the JKLF Chairman Amanullah Khan. It is well known that the JKLF is a Pakistan creation to foment trouble in the Kashmir valley, and Amanullah enjoys the patronage of the ISI, through he claims he represents the entire state of Jammu and Kashmir and pleads for an independent Kashmir. The JKLF has had many avatars ever since this militant group came into existence. Not many people are aware that Amanullah Khan is not a Kashmiri, but a Mirpuri and his claims to speak for the Kashmiris is a ploy by Pakistan government. In fact, the JKLF is the progenitor of militancy in the state and later on other militant groups sprang up. With ISI actively supporting militants, both indigenous and mercenaries the situation over the decade has taken a turn for the worse. In order to disturb the electoral process militant groups used poll boycott and death threats to voters and candidates who were contesting the parliamentry elections. And they chose VIP victims, making a mockery of their security cover. They eliminated BJP leader and nominee for the-southern constituency of Anantnag, Hyder Noorani; People Patriotic Front chairman Ghulam Nabbi Azad's chief election agent Manzoor Ahmad Malik and a prominent campaigner of former Union Home Minister Mufti Mohammad Syed. The Mufti who was seeking re-election from Anantnag, himself had a close shave around the time Dr. Kamal was targeted. Daughter Mahbooba Mufti, herself in the fray in Srinagar, was accompanying him at the time. Militants tried to blow up his car by detonating IED near Bijbehara. Former Minister of State for Home Maqbool Dar was no less lucky in cheating the gun. A common belief is that militants are now fighting with more dedication and motivation. That is because there are more foreign elements than ever. They are highly trained and equipped with sophisticated weapons. These gunmen, who come from Pakistan, Afghanistan, Sudan and other Muslim countries are also indoctrinated. Says a police officer: "They have been told they were fighting jihad (holy war). He who dies in the course of this war would be blessed by Allah and would go to heaven." The degree of commitment and determination can be gauged from reports that militants played a cricket match in full public view before storming a company headquarters of Rashtriya Rifles at Natnusa on 5 August. "Motivation levels of foreign militants are very high. They are more hardened and willing to take more risks," says Brig N. S. Rana, commander of Nowgam sector garrison, which killed six Lashkar-e-Toiba militants early last month. "Not even once did the wounded militants wince or cry in pain," he said. "Also their fire control during encounters is very good and they do not waste any ammunition," he adds. "They fight to the last bullet," corroborates another officer. Police and intelligence agencies maintain that over 2,500 foreign militants have infiltrated into Kupwara, Rajouri and Poonch forests in the past two months. Residents have no reservations in admitting that the militants have a thick presence in Ramhal, Hafurda, Wayoosa, Lolab and Zachaldar forests. Over 1,000 militants are reported to be operating in Lolab valley alone. "These days they come down to villages to buy commodities more often," says a village in Refiabad. Security forces ambushed seven activists of Hizbul Mujahideen in the area on August 7 when they came down to the plains. But in the last week of September, just one militant came down from a hill and fired some 28 rounds to scare Minister of State for Home Mustaq Ahmed Lone from his hometown Sogam in Lolab. The unprecedented militant activity threw a spanner in the poll business. No candidate or party leader ventured to undertake campaigning in the upper belt of Kupwara, which has almost two-third voters in the frontier district. There is speculation that another Kargil was being plotted in the Kupwara mountains. Some reports say militants had already taken over vast areas in the district. These were confirmed by no less a person than A. S. Mangar, Inspector General of BSF, who, till recently, commanded the force in most parts of North Kashmir. On August 7, he made a sensational disclosure that some 1,200 heavily armed militants were occupying positions on the high ridges along the LoC in Kupwara and Baramullah districts. The Kargil episode has only rejuvenated militants notwithstanding that they had a pull back from the posts they had occupied on this side of the LoC. The militants not only got their case internationalised, but were also able to inflict heavy casualties on security forces. This has led them to believe that the more risks they take, the more attention they would attract, insists a senior political analyst. Moreover the Army, which had been deployed to take on militants in the valley, was removed to Kargil. This left a space for militants to spread their tentacles. On 4 July, when Pakistan Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif asked Kashmiri militants to pull back from Kargil, Hizbul Mujahideen supremo Syed Salahuddin openly accused him of betrayal and back-stabbing. With an outrageous frown of disapproval, Salahuddin, who also heads the Muzaffarabad-based 14 party militant alliance. United Jihad Council, declared that militants would not pull out but would instead, change their positions. He also threatened more Kargils if India continued with what he called its "intransigence and stubbornness" on the Kashmir issue. The guns had hardly fallen silent in Kargil. But militants began to precisely execute their threats. In their first major offensive after Kargil on 13 July, militants raided the residential quarters of BSF sector headquarters at Bandipora and gunned down a DIG, a deputy commandant and a sub-inspector in the dead of the might. This was for the first time that militants had undertaken a suicide mission. The incident set a new trend and almost all militant groups vowed to repeat Bandipora in every nook and corner of the state. Lashkar-e-Toiba, a Pakistan based pan-Islamic militant group which claimed responsibility for storming the BSF headquarters, said that it had formed "fidai groups" (suicide squads) to take the fight against security forces into their camps. It repeated Bandipora on 4 September, when three of its activists sneaked into a BSF camp at Handwara and held four personnel and two IB men hostage. Hizbul Mujahideen cadres followed Lashkar's suit on 5 August by storming the company camp of 4 RR at Natnusa in border district Kupwara. The nocturnal punch left five soldiers including the camp commander Captain Mandeep Singh dead and several others wounded. The very next day, they ambushed 4 RR's commanding officer (CO) Colonel Balbir Singh killing him along with his driver and two other jawans at Keegam, 2 km from Natnusa. The same evening militants fired rockets and missiles on the Army's brigade headquarters at Trehgsan, killing one jawans and injuring four others. This was for the first time in the decade-long militancy that Trehgam brigade headquarters came under fire. There has been a phenomenal change in militant tactics against security forces, admit senior police and civil authorities. The conventional guerrilla hit-and-run manoeuvring has been transposed with characteristically unusual mode of taking things head-on. "Earlier they used to fire from a distance," says Maj. Gen. R. K. Kaushal, General Commanding Officer (GOC) of Victor Force. "Now they fire from close positions." The new surge in militancy has definitely spread panic in government ranks. No less a person than Abdullah has described the situation in Kupwara as terribly shocking. He warned people to be prepared for hard days. "I am deploying Army again," Abdullah told people in Handwara. "They (Army) will blast your houses if you don't keep off militancy," he warned. The Chief Minister assertions are surely beyond doubt. Kargil has been taken out of the Srinagar-based 15 Corps' jurisdiction. And it will be now looked after by a newly-raised Corps 14 headed by a separate commander. INAV |
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The one and half strategic
missile front is not enough ? Pakistan's new long-range 3,000 km missile Ghauri-III was not test fired on 29 September as announced earlier. The postponement is attributed to the intense pressure exercised by the Clinton administration as it would have enhanced the missile race in South Asia. A missile of 3,000 km range would give Pakistan an edge over India as cities from Bangalore to Calcutta could be hit in 15 minutes. Though Pakistan claims that the Ghauri-III is an indigenous missile, but US and Indian intelligence reports suggest that it was built with North Korean and Chinese technology. Pakistan in its missile armoury has Shaheen I and II with striking capability range varying between 300 km to 600 km. The Shaheen variants were also shipped to Pakistan from North Korea, in knocked down condition. Pakistan's quest for ballistic missiles did not begin as a response to India's development of the Prithvi battlefield ballistic missile. It started sometime in the early 1980s as an adjunct to Pakistan's nuclear weapons programme. The control of both the nuclear and the missile programmes have traditionally been kept with the Pakistan Army, with Bhopal born Dr. Abul Qadeer Khan (the brain behind Pakistan's nuclear bomb) and his fledgling bureaucracy playing an increasing role. This arrangement continues as is evident from Dr. Khan's recent outburst that no power within or outside Pakistan could cap or roll back Pakistan's nuclear programme. Pakistan's missile programme was accelerated in the mid-1980s when it was clear that Dr. Khan would pull of what he has promised: to give Pakistan's generals the Islamic bomb they so coveted. The Chinese were requested to help out when Pakistani scientists discovered that developing a powerful enough rocket fuel and even a rudimentary guidance system was no small feat. The Chinese readily agreed. The Afghan War was at its peak and military supplies were pouring into Pakistan. At that time, the Chinese were keen to get hold of whatever Western military technology they could, and wanted to ensure that Pakistan was not permanently weaned away from their influence. They succeeded in both their endeavours. The joint Pakistani-Chinese development of the so called ANZA-II shoulder fired, surface-to-air missiles helped the Chinese immensely as it gave them a chance to get hold of US Stinger missiles and do the necessary reverse engineering to come out with a sufficiently "indigenous" looking product. The ANZA-II continued to rely on wire guidance during the initial flight stage to the target and thereafter, the infra-red homing device took over. Wire guidance was touted as an advantage as the operator could keep theoretically the missile on target even if it released chaff. Fact was that the ANZA-II was nothing but a poor quality Stinger variant and the Americans when they found out were understandably upset. Immediately after the ANZA-II was unveiled in the Spring of 1991, the then US Ambassador to Pakistan, Robert Oakley, shot of an angry note to the Pakistanis accusing them of breaking an agreement which forbade the transfer of hi-tech US military equipment to third companies. Meanwhile, the Pakistani ballistic missile poetically named Hatf or "heavenly voice", was not going as well as expected. The setting up of production facilities for high energy solid fuel was proving more difficult than the Pakistanis had presumed. The Chinese obliged by providing the fuel and several subsystems. All these were somewhat hastily assembled by 1989 to produce two missiles. The Hatf-I was a variant of SUPARCO'S Shahpar rockets and could with the Chinese supplied fuel and control systems, deliver a 1,200 pounds warhead at a distance of 70 km. Though very little is known about the Hatf-I or the longer range (300 km) Hatf-II, unveiled at the same time, experts feel that neither missiles have guidance systems of any sophisticated sort and are free fall rockets, which could nonetheless be quite messy if fitted with nuclear warheads. But the Pakistanis at that time did not have enough nuclear warheads to fit on inaccurate missiles and in 1988, the then Chief of Army Staff (Pakistan) General Mirza Aslam Beg signed a contract with the China Precision Machinery Import & Export Corporation (CPMIEC) for the supply of the newly paraded Dong Feng 11 missiles, now famous as the M-11 missiles. The contract covered training, transfer of technology, related hardware and supply of spares. During the 1992-93 fiscal year, China supplied 54 numbers of M-11s in semi-knocked down condition to Pakistan. Another 30 missiles followed in 1994, making it a total of 84 M-11 missiles. These missiles are not all stored at the Sargodha airbase as reported but are housed in special shelters under the control of the Pakistani Army Artillery Corps. The Sargodha base has been used for storing missile spares, launchers, related maintenance facilities and training for the launching crews. The evidence was so overwhelming that the US was compelled to impose Category II MTCR sanctions against Pakistan and China in August 1993. Both the Pakistanis and the Chinese to this day swear that no M-11s were transferred, and add that no MTCR guideline was violated. However, in 1994, Pakistani President Farooq Leghari admitted at a press conference that Pakistani had indeed imported missiles from China but stressed that these were not M-11 missiles and that the missiles imported were within MTCR parameters. He did not say what kind of missiles had been imported. Western observers tend to think that the Hatf-II programme was revived in 1994. Actually, it was the Hatf-III programme, as originally envisaged by General Beg. The aim is to produce a missile capable of delivering as much as a 1,000 kg payload a distance of 2,000 km to 3,000 km. According to Jane's Foreign Report, Pakistan's domestic missile production facility has been set up in the mountains south of Islamabad in the area of Fatehjang. The facility, named the National Defence Complex, is a collection of prefabricated metal buildings that house a collection of scientists from several Pakistani agencies, including the PAEC and SUPARCO, and Chinese experts from the China Precision Machinery Import & Export Corporation (CPMIEC). Of the ten Chinese experts, six are working on the guidance and control system and four are assigned to the plant which is working on the domestic production of solid fuel. The guidance and targeting software team is lead by Anwar Ali of the PAEC, but the hardware, including gyroscopes, accelerometers, and computers are believed to have been provided by the CPMIEC. The work on the construction of the facilities was scheduled to be completed by August 1999. The China-Pakistan nexus will only grow stronger and will not end with the launch of the Ghauri-III. The United States has for all practical purposes adopted a hands off policy as far as the China-Pakistan military-industrial nexus is concerned. After learning of the agreement with Pakistan to help produce a Pakistani ballistic missile, the US began hectic parleys with the Chinese and in October 1994 succeeded in getting the Chinese to issue a joint statement promising that no MTCR missile would be provided to Pakistan. By MTCR missiles, the US meant any missile capable of carrying a 500 kg or more load over a distance of at least 300 km. The Chinese agreed. What they did not agree to was an end to covert assistance to Pakistan, or to any other country for that matter. This meant that China is free to help any country in developing missile or nuclear weapons technology. And this is one advantage the Chinese are bound to exploit to further their influence in distant parts of the world. Two conclusions emerge from all this. First, the US Administration's complete inability to restrain China beyond a point is inconsistent with its gratuitous "advice" to India to desist from developing or deploying ballistic missiles and/ or nuclear weapons. Second, Western moves to limit the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and their associated delivery systems will work only with those countries that lack political will. It will not deter countries like Pakistan and China who believe that Western powers when presented with a fait accompli usually cave in. In the present geostrategic situation, India has to come up with not only intermediate range but intercontinental ballistic missiles to defend its territorial integrity and inflict heavy casualty on its adversaries. INAV |
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