EDITORIAL

COUNTDOWN BEGINS

With fifth and final round concluding today, the 13th Lok Sabha is slated for being constituted by 10th Oct. With the 20th Century's last election and the resultant government could rightly pride in being the first one to enter the next millennium. This time there is much more to it than meets the eye. Congress claims to be on the comeback trail. On this hypothesis it has already started talking about non-existence of anything like pre-electoral NDA as a single entity. They want the old practice of inviting the largest single party to form the next Government. They smell that Congress is going to overtake BJP as the largest single party. So let it be. Then what? It just can not claim to have simple majority on its own. This means roping in others. The leftist bandwagons of atheists. Those who are used to run with the hare and hunt with the hound. And that famous exercise of buying MPs. Such exercise was indeed carried out after Vajpayee Government was voted out by a solitary vote leading to mid-term because Sonia failed to muster the requisite magic figure of 273 seats although President gave her 10 days to manage it.. .....more

Indo-Pak Diary – II
Jehadis’ new gameplan
on Kashmiri Pandits

From B L Kak
Intelligence specialists have a piece of ‘special’ information: ..more

Can nukes prevent war

By Sharad Dixit Wg Cdr (Retd)
The Kargil conflict and other hostilities around the world in the ...more

‘The company of women’
TALES OF TRAVESTY

By Dr. Jitendra Singh
Three years ago, Khushwant Singh, the octogenarian author,..more

UP will decide who
rules at the centre

By Sweta Patwardhan
(INAV Correspondent)
It is said that the party that rules in Lucknow also rules in .......more

The billion plus question

By : Dr Navin Chandra Joshi
India's emergence as major economic power is .... .more

EDITORIAL

COUNTDOWN BEGINS

With fifth and final round concluding today, the 13th Lok Sabha is slated for being constituted by 10th Oct. With the 20th Century's last election and the resultant government could rightly pride in being the first one to enter the next millennium. This time there is much more to it than meets the eye. Congress claims to be on the comeback trail. On this hypothesis it has already started talking about non-existence of anything like pre-electoral NDA as a single entity. They want the old practice of inviting the largest single party to form the next Government. They smell that Congress is going to overtake BJP as the largest single party. So let it be. Then what? It just can not claim to have simple majority on its own. This means roping in others. The leftist bandwagons of atheists. Those who are used to run with the hare and hunt with the hound. And that famous exercise of buying MPs. Such exercise was indeed carried out after Vajpayee Government was voted out by a solitary vote leading to mid-term because Sonia failed to muster the requisite magic figure of 273 seats although President gave her 10 days to manage it. It would be interesting to see how Congress goes about wooing others. But let us see who are these ‘others’. The leftists parties together do not hope to log more than 45 at the most. Laloo's RJD could dictate terms. TD could never be on the side of Congress nor the DMK nor for that matter Akali Dal. This leaves BSP which is working on the theme of another mid-term poll next year. Kanshi Ram says that more frequent elections suit them best as each time they gain more seats. And Mulayam Singh. Will he support Sonia and that Pawar/Sangma's NCP? No, no. The arithmetic just does not click. BJP and its partners are confident but do keep their fingers crossed on the final count which begins from October, 6. Let us assume for a while that President instead of taking NDA as a single unit, begins the exercise as per Congress theme i.e. inviting the largest single party. Mind you it is the Congress approach and if BJP has edge over Congress, in that case also it is this party that is going to be invited first. But the President is no rubber stamp. He would like to have full list of supporters and unless that magical figure is reached, there is that old exercise repeat. Anyway, by next Sunday, the position would be clear who is where and who can swim in how much water.

This election shall also be remembered for being full of rhetorics, personal attacks and largest ever deaths in Bihar in poll related incidents. MCC (Maoist Communist Centre) has chopped of the hands of many innocent citizens that had the indelible ink mark on their fingers because they refused to boycott the election. Contrarily, there is the news story from Baramulla constituency that electorate was threatened with identification of fingers. Those not carrying the indelible ink mark would be taught the worst lesson of their life. Poor voters! Sandwiched between two evils knowing not which is the lesser one.

And anguished GVG Krishnamurthy who did not get the chance to supervise the final count. He however speaks much more than Seshan after he is out of Election Commission as a member. He bemoans that electoral reforms remain elusive. He blames political parties for not getting requisite legislation on vital electoral reforms through to cleanse the elections and rid it of ills and all round pollution. He reels out a long list what it ought to be. This is the most candid admission that elections in its present form could never be free and fair. But CEC MS Gill swears that it is all over peacefully, never mind GVG tantrums! And here is the million dollar real treat for the Tripura voters. IAF Helicopters would be patrolling the skies to keep watch no those set to sabotage elections! Why not have it in Anantnag as well which goes to polls on October 4?

Indo-Pak Diary – II
Jehadis’ new gameplan on Kashmiri Pandits

From B L Kak

Intelligence specialists have a piece of ‘special’ information: Changes have been effected, without any fanfare, in the none-too-old list of ‘unwanted’ Hindu activists and leaders, intellectuals and medical practitioners and student and youth leaders of Jammu and Kashmir. The new list has been prepared across the Indo-Pakistan border, taking into account the inputs from the anti-India elements and outfits in the Valley. The altered hit-list has been divided into two parts – ‘aggressive’ activists and ‘silent agents’.

Equally ‘special’ piece of information relates to the inclusion of new names in the hit-list under the category of ‘aggressive’ activists. And in this category, Mr Satish Raina, Advisor to the Farooq Abdullah Government on minority affairs, finds an important place. And if these intelligence specialists are to be believed, Mr Satish Raina’s name in the hit-list is followed by Dr Agnishekhar and Dr KL Chaudhary, the two stalwarts of Pandits’ organisation, namely, Panun Kashmir.

This development is said to have followed the open involvement of Mr Satish Raina in efforts aimed at conditioning the mind of the unwilling Pandits to support the Government’s plan envisaging the return of the Hindu migrants to the Valley of Kashmir sooner than later. Intelligence sleuths are also learnt to have obtained information about the unpublished "directive" from Pakistan-based Harkat-ul-Mujahideen to its Kashmir-based ‘soldiers of Allah’ to bombard all structures or residential premises that will be constructed in any part of the Valley for Mr Satish Raina and like-minded Hindus.

Similar instructions have reportedly been given to other dreaded anti-India terrorist outfits such as Al Badr, Lashkar-e-Toiba and Hizbul Mujahideen. Activists and sympathisers of these organisations have, once again, been directed from across the border to ensure that distinct Muslim character of the Valley was not affected in any way. In other words, the directive called for measures against the rehabilitation of the Hindu migrants in the Valley.

Names of dozens of leaders of some Hindu religious and political organisations of Jammu and Kashmir have been included in the revised hit-list under the category of ‘aggressive’ activists. These organisations, among others, include Panun Kashmir, Kashmiri Pandit Sabha, Kashmiri Pandit Samiti, Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP), Shiv Sena and RSS.

Again, if the findings of intelligence specialists are to be believed, three mediapersons, based in Jammu, and two pothers based in Delhi have been mentioned in the hit-list under the category of ‘silent agents’. Jammu-based journalists have been identified as Mr ON kaul, Mr Shyam Kaul and Mr ML Kaul, while the Delhi-based journalists are Mr Mohan Chiragi, Editor of Urdu daily, Qaumi Awaaz, and Mr PN Jalali.

The revised hit-list, significantly, does not contain names of Dr Sushil Razdan, a well-known neurologist, and Mr ML Kak, senior journalist, both of them based in Jammu. The earlier list had contained their names. And if the earlier list did not contain the name of Dr Mustafa Kamal, younger brother of the J&K Chief Minister, the new list has his name as well as that of the ‘heir- apparent’, Mr Omar Farooq, son of Dr Farooq Abdullah.

Intelligence specialists have also been informed about the inclusion in the hit-list of the names of several officers of the Indian Army, the Border Security Force(BSF), the Rashtriya Rifles (RR) and Jammu and Kashmir Police and CID. Specific mention is reported to have been made about the anti-jehadis role by Commander of 15 Corps, Lt. Gen. Krishan Pal, and two officers of the BSF, Mr BN Kabu and Mr AK Sethi.

Right-wing Jamaat-e-Islami’s military wing, Hizbul Mujahideen, is said to have brought about the inclusion of the names of Mr BN Kabu and Mr AK Sethi in the hit-list. Hizbul Mujahideen has charged Mr Sethi with having perpetrated "untold miseries" on a number of Muslim "freedom-fighters" during his posting in Kashmir Valley a few years ago, while Mr Kabu has been accused of having manipulated "conversion" of a group of hard-core rebels into pro-Government militants.

The Union Ministry as well as Cabinet Secretariat are said to have been informed by intelligence sleuths that the Taliban, in reality, is headed by Brigadier Ashraf Afridi, an ISI veteran. Pakistan Army regulars now fight with the Taliban, apart from running the Badr I and II training camps near Khost, just inside Afghanistan.

In addition, there are training camps near Jallozai, 40 km east of Peshawar. Not only do these camps train mujahideen for Afghanistan but also for subversive activities elsewhere, particularly in Jammu and Kashmir. The importance of Islamic terrorism is reflected in the growing number of Afghan and Pakistani export terrorists being infiltrated into Kashmir and Tajikistan.

The Government of India has already been told about the existence of as many as 128 militant camps in Pakistan occupied Kashmir (PoK). Many of them are close to the Line of Control (LoC). It is not that there are no signs of fatigue within Pakistan over the resultant climate of lawlessness that has enveloped most of Pakistan.
(To be continued)

Can nukes prevent war

By Sharad Dixit Wg Cdr (Retd)

The Kargil conflict and other hostilities around the world in the recent past have belied the assumption that nuclear weapons are supposed to prevent war, or that their availability would reduce the size and cost of conventional forces.

Nukes are meant to deter (not prevent) nuclear strikes - and not all military action, although collateral benefits may accrue. The unhindered action by the IAF during the Kargil conflict is a case in point.

Our aircraft were sitting ducks during their strikes at high altitude in difficult terrain, yet the PAF refrained from direct intervention. This was possibly because rapid escalation to uncontrollable levels could have ensued.

The efficacy of deterrence would generally by lower against authoritarian states (witness Kosovo and North Korea), but can never be conclusively ascertained prior to a confrontation.

Here it would be pertinent to state that theory of deterrence has developed fairly recently although the practice is older than man himself.

When applied to nation states, both theory and practice become complex, involving all spheres of activity, the projection of images, the modification of adversrial perceptions and the influencing of actions.

Deterrence is a posture which progressively reinforces itself to determine the interactions between states - particularly mutually hostile ones. It, therefore, needs continuous analysis and careful determination, such that a suitable doctrine can evolve.

A nuclear doctrine entails a political statement with military and other inputs.

It would be specific to a nation, reflecting its aspirations and ideology along with its political, economic, military and technological environment.

No such doctrine has yet been formulated in India. The only element defined has been the No First Use (NFU) policy. Intrinsic to the doctrine would be our concept of deterrence - its focus and the degree to which it is to be prosecuted.

Deterrence comprises two elements, capability and the resolve to apply it. The latter in particular has to be demonstrated unambiguously and repeatedly to the adversary to establish its credibility.

This does not imply a series of armed conflicts, but definite political, diplomatic, economic and where necessary - military - signals to indicate tolerance thresholds. Each such threshold must be linked to an appropriate riposte highlighting the counterproductivity of its violation.

It should be clear from the foregoing that forces is no single, universal deterrent. China's nuclear power is of little help in countering Islamic fundamentalism, just as all of USSR's control over East Germany was unable to prevent the nuclear West's Berlin Airlift of 1948.

Thus the efficacy of deterrence relates to the perceptions of the adversary's think-tank and these are subject to inference. The Kargil case, for example, could also be interpreted to mean that Pakistan did not expect our airpower to be effective in the situation and welcomed the waste of expensive effort and munitions.

The classic case of such ambiguity is that of Israel in 1991. A non-belligerent, having no common borders with the adversaries, it was subjected to 18 attacks involving 40 ballistic missiles in an attempt to draw it into an impossible coalition. Was this a failure of deterrence ? Israel claims otherwise.

It assesses that Iraq did not anticipate Israeli restraint in view of its past record. It could not appreciate that Israeli political, economic and military interests lay in patience. The effectiveness of the deterrent lay in Iraq's abstention from the use of chemical/biological warheads as it feared retaliatory annihilation. Ironically, it was Iraq's deterrence which brought the war to a close.

Both the Israeli and the US Intelligence agencies assessed imminent use of Chemical weapons as a result of the collapse of Iraq's military machine.

As a result, President Bush immediately called a premature halt to the prosecution of the war, two days before all the politico-military objectives were expected to be achieved.

If is often, therefore, an analysis of non-events and why they did not occur, which confirms the value or otherwise of a deterrent.

Did the contrast between the first and second forty five years of this century in Europe confirm its value ? Did the Bay of Pigs confrontation ? USSR's political brinkmanship deterred by Kennedy's resolve.

Khrushchev's was an attempt to bolster Cuba's intractability, and not one to get his missiles closer to the USA - Alaska is just fifty miles from Siberia.

In no case after Nagasaki have nuclear weapons actually been used. Employment would have meant the failure of deterrence. This is its essence.

The very destructiveness of the nuclear weapon has brought nations to realise that nuclear wars are not "Winnable", thus limiting their function to one of deterrence. The exception is the USA. With its huge resources, it is developing defences against systems - including ballistic missiles - which could deliver such weapons.

It is carrying weapons and defence capability into space, from where it could limit hostilities to enemy territory. It is designing - perhaps producing - tactical weapons whose yield and effects are relatively controllable in terms of space and time, for use against military targets.

It could develop a capacity to fight and win a nuclear war. No other nation, however, has either the technological knowhow or the resources necessary to develop such a comprehensive capability in the near future. Till such time that the required technology is widely available, or non-proliferation efforts succeed, man will perhaps have to live with the concept of nuclear deterrence.

What levels of weaponisation then constitute an effective nuclear deterrent ? Is parity necessary ? The answer is negative. The promise is one of reprisals disproportionate to the objective of the original foray.

A calculated, threat-specific ability catering for some amount of overkill, losses during first strike, operational failures, maintenance reserves etc. would be adequate.

This is what has made non-proliferation regimes partly successful. While proliferation has not been stopped, it has been controlled to some extent. South Africa has Israel are believed to have developed the capacility when besieged, but have not proclaimed it. Saudi Arabia is a rich prospect who could quickly acquire it if the regime changes. Iraq would have been nuclear now but for Israeli and international efforts.

Much of Europe, Canada, Australia and Japan would have weaponised if they so desired. Even Nuclear Weapon States are attempting to cut back on their holdings. The UK, for example, has no Land or Air-based Strategic nuclear weapons. Its deterrent consists of six submarine based launch platforms, of which four are operational at a given time.

Proliferation nevertheless would continue as long as nations perceive major threats, horizontally as new power centres develop, and vertically with obsolescence, technology upgradation etc.

In our context, the level of deterrence necessary is coloured by ethnicity. The larger power in our vicinity - China - extends less of a threat, as any conflicts are expected to be Clausewitzian in nature. The Pakistani scenario on the contrary, contains an irrational element.

Generations indoctrinated with anti-India propaganda from the nursery onwards, fuelled by maniacal fundamentalism, powered by narco-finance, can hardly be expected to adhere to generally accepted norms.

The hatred is because of our "being" and for no other reason. The deterrence therefore would need to be pitched at a very high level. The grim reality is that it would still be fragile and the possibility of its failure would remain. This is the contingency our doctrine makers must next address. PTI Feature

‘The company of women’
TALES OF TRAVESTY

By Dr. Jitendra Singh

Three years ago, Khushwant Singh, the octogenarian author, wrote about Maneka Gandhi describing her as "a sex-less woman with a flat chest". To protest against this, Maneka went to the court and not many of Khushwant's regular readers rose up to admire this unsavoury expression by the grand old Sardar ji who was incidentally among the first to have volunteered as Maneka's most trusted supporter cum solicitor when the Late Sanjay Gandhi had picked up this Sikh girl from a Delhi College beauty contest and informed his reluctant mother Indira Gandhi about his decision to marry her.

At 85, Khushwant Singh is at it once again --- trying all the tricks in the book to titillate the readers' unexpressed sexual perversions. That is the conclusion one cannot but help drawing after going through Khushwant Singh's latest book "The Company of Women".

Shabana Azmi had once said that in any creative pursuit --- whether it is acting, writing or painting --- there are two prerequisites for the performer to be remembered by his or her future generation. First, he or she should leave some landmark works of creativity and second, he or she should be consistent in his or her creative output. Unfortunately for Khushwant Singh, while he has successfully left an immortal landmark in the form of his novel "Train to Pakistan", he has thereafter desperately resorted to sex-based writing in order to sustain the popularity of his creative consistency.

Khushwant Singh, as an individual, is highly adorable witty intelligent and eloquent. But even as an individual, although Khushwant has always denounced hypocrisy, he is himself a hypocrite of sorts. For instance, in his writings Khushwant Singh always presents himself in the image of a lecher, alcoholic, women-monger, non-conformist and atheist --- but this itself is hypocrisy deliberately cultivated to sell his writings. Because, in real life, Khushwant Singh is highly disciplined, intensely hard-working and absolutely cultured. He follows a strict routine with timely meals and the peg of scotch at fixed evening hours. He is deeply religious having diligently authored two-volume history of the Sikhs. Indeed, it is one of the ironies of the contemporary India's confused social milieu that in order to sell himself, a man of the stature of Khushwant Singh must also pretend to be doing what he actually never does. And, his latest semi-autobiographical book "The Company of Women" is a striking example of this paradox.

This, however, does not in any way lessen Khushwant Singh's rating as one of the most distinguished English litterateurs produced by India in the second half of the twentieth century. His vocabulary, style, felicity and expression bear a unique trade-mark which is at once original and different. The only tragedy is that when Khushwant Singh is no more, the solitary piece of work which would keep him alive as an author would be his "Train to Pakistan" which is undoubtedly one of the greatest fiction novels in English language written in the aftermath of India's partition. Alas! instead of trying another "Train to Pakistan", Khushwant Singh chose to waste his talent describing the breast of Maneka Gandhi or the legs of Mrinalini Sarabhai.

Be that as it may, Khushwant Singh is precious to us --- also because he happens to be virtually the last distinguished survivor from that extinct class of fiction - writers who were groomed by the composite culture of the pre-partition subcontinent and by the cherished values of undivided Punjab. Very much like the young Sikh hero of Khushwant's "Train to Pakistan" who lays down his life in the 1947 partition riots while saving the train to Pakistan which carried Punjab's Muslim refugees including the lady to whom he related his unrequitted feelings. To that extent, for the common man, Khushwant Singh represents a legacy. For Umapathy, he represents the undying faith in the inevitability of reunion among the people of the Indian subcontinent, a La, "Meri Zameen Bhi Tumhari Zameen Se Milti Hai; Deeda -e-Peer-e-Hasti, Be-basi Bhi Ek Si Hai ----".

UP will decide who rules at the centre

By Sweta Patwardhan (INAV Correspondent)

It is said that the party that rules in Lucknow also rules in Delhi. With 85 Lok Sabha seats Uttar Pradesh occupies a prominent place in national politics; and the state has produced six prime ministers. For the thirteenth Lok Sabha polls, the battle lines are clearly drawn between the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party and the Congress; in between, there are fringe groups like the Mulayam Singh Yadav outfit and Kanshi Ram's BSP. The two prime ministerial aspirants, Atal Behari Vajpayee and Sonia Gandhi, have chosen the state as their karmabhoomi, and are fighting a bitter battle of ballot for survival.

But for the ruling BJP-led coalition government in the state, the lurking anti-incumbency factor is hovering over the Kalyan Singh government, which is desperately trying to cover up its chinks at the eleventh hour. The saffron party, if it does well, will do so entirely by default. By virtue of having a divided opposition more than anything else.

For the Congress it is a fight to regain the lost glory in the Hindi heartland while the Samajwadi Party is waging a lonely battle. The fear of the minorities deserting the SP has made matters worse. But the untiring SP chief Mulayam Singh Yadav is carrying on with the struggle. Perhaps the only party confident of its committed vote bank is the Bahujan Samaj Party. Turning down all requests of the Congress for an electoral understanding, the Dalit party has preferred to act as the spoilsport. "Hamara lakshya hai ek majboot nahi, ek majboor sarkar (We aspire not for a stable but a weak government)" its leaders say. Of course, till such time as the party can get a clear majority.

The Kalyan Singh government was hardly prepared for the elections. Plagued by infighting, a general feeling of disinterest still prevails among the party rank and file in the state. Vajpayee happens to be the only unifying factor which has kept the party going. The state unit is clearly divided between the anti-and pro-Kalyan factions. In fact, the anti-Kalyan lobby had demanded a change in the state's leadership a few months back, shuttling between Lucknow and Delhi to keep the central leadership informed of the UP developments in the wake of the rebellion.

A highly perturbed leadership sent senior leader K. N. Govindacharya to bring down the rising tempers and keep the issue on the backburner till the Lok Sabha election are over. After several meetings with the anti-Kalyan group, even Govindacharya felt that it was a Herculean task. Both the factions refused to yield to the other's demand. Meanwhile, the polls came as a face-saver with both the groups calling for a temporary truce.

However, the bitterness continues to be there and a general feeling of disinterest hangs heavily over the party. It was therefore after great efforts that Kalyan Singh and the state BJP president Rajnath Singh, who were known for their strained relationship had to put up a united face. Not surprising then that right from the selection of candidates to ticket distribution, the party generated much heat. While some feel the anti-incumbency factor will take a heavy toll, others are of the view that Vajpayee's towering personality will finally be their saviour.

Haunted by the fear of the post-poll scenario and the possibility of a change in case the party performed badly, an apprehensive Kalyan Singh did not hesitate in pointing out that the party's victory or defeat would be a collective responsibility. He felt that since all decisions were taken collectively, no person could be singled out. Does he feel that the party may lose some of its 60 seats because of the infighting? Notwithstanding his denials, will the anti-incumbency factor take a heavy toll or will Vajpayee's personality overshadow it? The answers to many such questions is being sealed in the ballot boxes.

While the BJP is preoccupied in its own squabbles, the Samajwadi Party is left to fend on its own. Despite Laloo Yadav parting ways, the Left parties looking in a different direction, SP chief Mulayam Singh Yadav was the first to kick off his poll campaign in the state. He felt the SP was fully capable of countering the communal forces. But the messiah of the Muslims began to feel jittery after the Congress pulled up its garters under Sonia Gandhi's leadership and a rejuvenated party started afresh to gain lost grounds.

Whether the minorities have forgiven the Congress will be known only after the poll results are declared. But Yadav's nervousness proves that all is not what it used to be for him as far as the minority support is concerned. The fact remains that the minorities have actually softened their stand towards the Congress. A serious thinking has definitely set in making the minority community start considering whether they should return to their traditional party.

The SP and the Congress have locked horns with each other over the minorities. Yadav's sporadic reaction was enough to bring the Congressmen on their toes. The ding-dong battle between the two parties has intensified as each tries to outwit the other in the slanging match. The fierce tussle between the SP and the Congress makes people wonder whether the BJP and the SP have actually arrived at a secret pact to hound their common enemy, the Congress.

The mood in the state Congress camp is, however, upbeat as enthusiastic party workers see hopes of the party's revival under Sonia's leadership. Priyanka's decision to campaign for the party is an added advantage. In fact, many party loyalists readily came up with the proposal of Priyanka contesting against Vajpayee from Lucknow. Of course, senior leaders dismissed the idea as lightly as it was made. But will the Sonia hype yield the desired results and add to the party's kitty?

A section of partymen recall how the party had lost even its total five seats despite the Sonia factor in the previous Lok Sabha polls. "Sonia was at that time rated as the number one crowd-puller. But we lost all the five seats in UP," comment the critics. The argument goes that now Sonia is contesting herself from Amethi and this would make all the difference. Leaving aside the Sonia factor, the Congress displayed once again its ugly face as ticket distribution brought many senior partymen to near-blows. The intra-party bickerings and resentment which followed ticket distribution delayed the announcement of the party's complete list of candidates at one go.

The BSP is the only party which can take the credit of releasing its complete list of candidates much before others could even finalise theirs. Fully confident of gaining support of its Dalit vote-base, the party has broadbased itself by distributing tickets to the upper castes and minorities as well. Turning down all requests of the Congress for an electoral understanding the BSP preferred to go alone. The logic being "the votes of the BSP are not transferrable while the votes of Congress or any other party are".

Though each party is wiser after every election, this election which is being perceived as a referendum on the Vajpayee government, will certainly teach the saffron brigade a lesson _ to remain united to fight its enemy. INAV

The billion plus question

By : Dr Navin Chandra Joshi

India's emergence as major economic power is still on course though it has not been able to keep up with the rapid strides that some Asian nations have successfully made. There is no doubt that serious problem areas remain and the challenges cry out for a concerted response.

One such challenge is the battle against unchecked demographic growth which has not yet even begun. Although India has moved from 'control to choices' in its population programmes, a lot needs to be done in the area of counselling and provision of quality services, especially as India's population is poised to become one billion and is set to surpass China by 2017.

Demographic issue have not so far been integrated in our conception of life. To most of us, vitalism is dominant and life is sacred. It has not been appreciated that any population strategy will serve in a more effective manner if it is combined with achieving a better quality of life.

Therefore, for economic planners, an understanding of the socio-economic determinants of population trends is essential in the formulation of appropriate measures and strategies to raise the living standards.

In India's population control programme, education, especially women's education, health care and job opportunities are some of the bylanes that should lead to the main action centre.

The crusade against illiteracy formally launched in the form of mass literacy campaign has not come a day to soon. Female literacy and expansion of employment opportunities, particularly in rural areas, will bring about a reduction in birth rates.

However, these factors will require large effort and will take long to produce the desired results as they are part of the overall development process. Therefore, what is needed is the introduction of such measures as could give quick results and at the same time, are not misused.

Admittedly, the interplay of population with economic growth is not unidirectional as a number of other factors such as the size of available resources and the level of technology attained also play an important role in determining whether a particular growth rate of community is healthy or injurious to its economic well-being.

The incidence of poverty and unemployment rampant in the country is an indicator of the fact that the development process cannot be relied upon for salvaging the country from the malaise of growing numbers.

Because of the rapid growth in population, the efforts of planners and government to improve the standard of living of the masses have been thwarted. Despite the impressive growth in our foodgrains production and national income, about a third of the country's population continues to live below the poverty line.

Issues like these need to be considered in the five-year plans and to promote human welfare.

In any case, our major thrust should lie in checking the growth of population in the rural areas. Families living in urban areas have by now become conscious of the need for family planning but the present size of the urban population and its unabated growth pose a major challenge to Indian planners.

The urban population, which was estimated at a whopping 156 million in 1981, has been growing every year by 3.6 per cent and is expected to touch 315 million by 2000 AD. The availability of housing, water supply, sanitation and other civic amenities needs to match the increasing demand.

Migration from rural areas to urban cities needs to be curbed so that urban areas do not become over-congested.

The issue of involvement of both private and public sector is not of much relevance. The example of Thailand shows that the source of support for family planning is less important than the assurance of a continuing commitment to provide a broad range of methods and services of reliable and good quality.

Thailand took only eight years to reduce fertility rate from 6.5 to 3.5 live births per woman.

The Indonesian experience also suggests high prevalence of family planning due to a wide selection of methods. In India, we need to have more choices in order to ensure higher prevalence for replacement fertility.

As such, we must implement a cafeteria approach in the real sense. More than anything else, the attitude of women's groups has to change in favour of a small family more in order to lead a better quality of life.

As such, socio-economic programmes relating to literary improvement, involvement of women in work and enhancing the status of women in society are crucial for a long-term policy of reduction in fertility.

To the extent that improvement in socio-economic sectors influences fertility behaviour, the need for integrating family welfare programmes, particularly community participation, must be recognised. Our efforts to bring people above the poverty line have put greater pressure on natural resources of the country.

For instance, while irrigation facilities have also produced salinity in the land, industrial development has polluted water and air. The long-run effect of these is going to be disastrous, unfavourable as these would be for national welfare.

In this context, it is worth stating that when Swedish economic Gunnar Myrdal described (Asian Drama: An Analysis into the Poverty of Nations) India as a soft state, he did not mean that the country is lacking in brutality and violence. Instead, he implied that India's rulers fight shy of taking hard decisions necessary for the betterment of the country.

The most worrisome example of that failure is in the realm of taking hard decisions for population control when it is so well-known that India's family planning efforts have refused to go beyond education and propaganda.

It would, therefore, be only appropriate that the new union government (after the September 1999 elections) launches an ambitious action plan to push India's population control programme under a revised package of incentives and disincentives for states and the union territories.

The new action plan needs to give a wider choice of birth control measures, improvement in the quality of health and family welfare services and measures to achieve fuller participation of voluntary organisations.

A differential strategy may be evolved to focus attention on the poor performing states of Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Bihar and Rajasthan and 90 districts where the crude birth rate (CBR) is much higher than the national CBR of 30.6 per thousand.

The centre-piece of the whole approach should be the political expression of the will to solve the problem by the new political leadership.

No more, perhaps, we need to indulge in rhetorics, slogans or wishful thinking. What is required is firm determination, immediate implementation and quick monitoring of the whole exercise of controlling growth in population at the national level. This has to be in the form of a movement, not just a programme.

In fact, population control programmes mUst generate a cascading effect to become a people's movement, but how effectively it is launched and when is yet to be seen.

As we all know, India has history of missed targes despite it being the first country to launch an official programme for controlling population in 1952. Since the first five-year plan, the programme has never suffered due to paucity of funds.

If at all, it was the lack of political will and dynamism, of an innovative approach and of realistic objectives and targets. Obviously, what has been achieved so far is just not enough. What is more, despite our good intentions to control population growth, there is little discussion, if at all, on a wider plane to determine a workable future strategy for limiting population growth.

A step-up in the marriageable age of girls needs to be under active consideration of the union government so that the age of marriage for girls is raised from 18 years to 20 years and of boys to 25 years from the present 21.

Somehow, the states consider the problem of population control as one of central government and they are wholly dependent on the funds provided by the centre to implement whatever they are able to do. And yet, population control has miserably failed in becoming a people's programme.

It is high time now to create a people's sector that may be organised on the pattern of Quit India movement of the pre-independence period. PTI Feature



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