Daily Excelsior... Editorial

EDITORIAL

Author of many Kargils

By Sarvadaman
Nawaz Sharif, the author of "Many Kargils", is in a helpless situation. So was Bhutto, who ..more

Restraint best reaction
to nuclear strike

By Wg Cdr (Retd) Sharad Dixit
The nuclear doctrine promulgated, once ratified by the new Government, would provide the basis for .....more

Promises to sell
In Lighter Vein

By S Sapru
Politicians make promises gen-erally at the time of elections-it is not the moon that.....more

EDITORIAL

CONSTRUCTIVE APPROACH

As three-week long Winter Session of Parliament begins, all the parties owe a duty to the nation to adopt constructive approach once it relates to economy and national security. There ought not be any major differences on these two critical aspects of nation building. It has been the wont of various parties to put national interests on the back-burner and concentrate on personal and party interests. In doing so they are not rendering any service either to themselves or to the nation. In most of the major democracies the world over there is invariably continuation of economic and defence policies. Be it the Democratic Party or the Republican in America, be it the Labour or the Conservative party in Great Britain, be it the coalition partners in Japan or Israel, they do sacrifice their individual priorities in favour of national cause. That is why economies of these countries continue to grow rapidly because there is neither instability nor fear psychosis associated with security environs.

In our country no single party has emerged victorious for a number of years now. Even Narasimha Rao's minority government was sustained by BJP until it succeeded in mustering simple majority through defections and other manipulations. Present ruling NDA is an amalgam of no less than 22 parties, howsoever miniscule. It thus follows that NDA adopts common Agenda for Governance leaving behind their own respective agendas so that proper governance is possible. Thus the ruling combine has to resolve inner party and intra party differences to push through any programme or legislative measure. In addition NDA also has to look outward for support of the opposition parties since it has only simple majority in Lok Sabha and is in minority in Rajya Sabha. It is here that the role of Opposition parties is no less important than the ruling NDA. In particular main opposition party i.e. Congress which has 111 MPs in the 13th Lok Sabha has to think of the nation first and personal aspects ought to be relegated to low priority when it comes to serving national interests.

It is to be noted that Indian economy has proved to be quite resilient and has withstood trials and tribulations of last year very well. There was dual attack on economy. First, in the wake of sanctions imposed due to Pokhran nuclear tests. Second, almost all Asian markets were in doldrums with their respective currencies almost collapsing. It includes giants like Japan and South Korea. Even America could not remain immune. But Indian economy remained steady like rock and there has been good management of demand and supply to keep the rate of inflation around 2%, a record during the last two decades. One definitely owes that resilience and progress due to liberalised policies adopted by Narasimha Rao government from 1991 onwards with Manmohan Singh as the Finance Minister. The same policies were more or less followed by the United Front Government for 18 months with Chidambaram as the Finance Minister. But he was handicapped since leftist parties comprising 51 MPs did come in the way of introducing many vital legislations like the Insurance Regulatory Development Authority Bill and other legislative measures as required for India to remain WTO member. Last Vajpayee government did introduce the IRA but was sent to Standing Committee which reduced the foreign equity in insurance sector to 26%, thus leaving the Indian partnership at hefty 74%. It is this bill that has to be passed during the current session because it immediately results in flow of foreign funds to the tune of at least 5 billions. It is also required to meet the WTO obligations. There are other bills falling in the same category Trade Related Intellectual Property Rights Bill, Patents Bill, Copyright Amendment Bill, Money Laundering Bill. WTO membership is no kid-play. China has been struggling to become WTO member for the last 12 years but only now there is ray of hope of becoming member after it decides to open up many sectors to multinationals. It has done it only to become WTO member. The leftist parties which derive their inspiration from communism and socialism therefore should fall in line with what Beijing and Moscow decide for their economies. Why should they oppose it in India when Moscow and Beijing have thrown their markets open. Likewise, Congress Party owes it to nation to continue with liberalisation of economy initiated by it. It is no use linking it up with deletion of Rajiv's name from the Bofor's chargesheet. For that they must take recourse to legal means. All progressive legislative measures in tune with liberalised economy and WTO requirements must be seen in the overall national interests rather than outdated ideologies. Then and then alone India can enter the next millennium confidently. Posterity will not pardon them if they fail to support healthy economic measures both inside and outside Parliament.

There are other bills that subserve social cause as also administrative reforms. In this category falls the Women's Reservation Bill which has remained exposed to politicking in one session after another. It is time that Congress does not back out like it did last time to pass this vital legislation for the upliftment of feminity. It need not be subjected to caste or religious dose at this stage. Once the principle of 33% reservation is translated into legislation, other amendments to make it more meaningful can follow. There is also the Bill for Lok Pal which will bring even Prime Minister within its ambit. There ought not to be any cause to oppose this legislation which is applicable not only to this government but also all successor governments. Likewise Bill to empower CVC with statutory powers in the overall interest of the nation as it is vital for rooting our corruption. It thus follows that all Opposition parties must not oppose for the sake of opposition but prove themselves as nationalists first and partymen or individuals afterwards. Constructive approach is the key to take the nation forward rapidly so that during the next two decades it becomes Super Power both economically as also militarily.

RAIL PROJECTS

It is interesting to know about the probable target dates for completion of various rail projects in J&K State. Jammu-Udhampur line has been the most unlucky as it has consumed almost 15 years with project cost going up from paltry 50 crore to 350 crore. Many a time target periods have been mentioned but each time it is deferred further. The latest date with Udhampur is December 2001. It is record of sort as regards completion of just 50 odd km railway track. The stipulated period mentioned for Baramulla-Qazigund and Udhampur-Katra stretch is the year 2002-2003. It appears tom-follery is at its best because allocation of funds prove it otherwise. It is good that target for Katra-Qazigund is given as 2007-2008. It is still better that all the above have the rider 'subject to availability of funds'. That exactly has been the problem for completion of Jammu-Udhampur line. The same problem persists which tantamounts to non-commitment or call it lack of seriousness as regards rail tracks in this border state. There is also the mention of surveys for two more lines i.e Jammu Poonch via Akhnoor and Rajouri besides Baramulla-Kupwara. The million dollar question relates to sincerity and allocation of funds to put the state on the railway map emphatically which is crucial to the economic development of the state and removal of unemployment to a large extent.

Author of many Kargils

By Sarvadaman

Nawaz Sharif, the author of "Many Kargils", is in a helpless situation. So was Bhutto, who had threatened "One thousand years" of war with India. History in Pakistan happens to repeat, albeit hundred percent. It is so, because only the names of the the personalities and times are different, otherwise, the situations, causes, remain the same. One factor which surprises me is the poor knowledge of history among the rulers of Pakistan; while the uniformed rulers appear to be avid readers of history. Nawaz Sharif had won election boycotted by the majority. But he thought he had the support of the majority. The creative minority, comprising of the press people, judiciary and contemporary thinkers, thought not so. These persons were the first to feel power-intoxication of Nawaz Sharif. They did try to awaken him to the prevailing realities. And what did they get, humiliation after humiliation. Nawaz Sharif was simply unstoppable in his track. His brute majority had inflated his ego. His main adversaries were either in Jail or out of country and weak enough to pose any challenge to his authority. He started with the President and on the way were those whom he should have never dreamt of touching. A wiseman should have kept the press in good humour. Nawaz Sharif had no time for this. Moreover, he did not want to see the judges as "Lions on the throne" but as "Lions under the throne". This was the greatest blunder. Today these Judges would have given Musharaff sleepless nights. Nawaz Sharif was Alexander and the Pressmen could not criticise him or even question his actions, on flimsy ground he threw them into Jails. Some of them were so ordinary and harmless creatures, miles away from the realm of Journalism but Nawaz Sharif's short sighted policy turned them into heroes. Nawaz Sharif, it appears, was over confident or every foolish. But one thing is certain that he forgot historical blunders and pit falls faced by his predecessors.

There was least cause of removing the President, Judges and Jahangir Karamat, the Ex-Chief of Army Staff. At least the Army Chief was known for his patriotism, foresightedness and was a through professional man. What Nawaz Sharif wanted to achieve, simultaneously he allowed himself to play into the hands of fanatics knooing fully well that Pak society was heading towards 21st century not ten-plus one.

By not wasting time, resources on Kashmir, Nawaz Sharif could have made his people happy. Pakistan, unlike India, has no enemy. Perhaps it is this state of mind that Pak rulers have forcibly treated India as their enemy. While India is surrounded by not friendly countries, and bigger powers have not. For a minute, closed their Hawkish eyes on India. Besides, India is beset with multiple, natural and unnatural problems. But Pak rulers obsession with Kashmir, made them forget every thing. Too much hatred destroys the balance of mind. This happened with Bhutto, Zia-ul-Haq and now with Nawaz Sharif. Nawaz's present plight does not remove the suspicion that Nawaz was playing peace-maker and war-monger at the same time. He should not have treated Vajpayee the way he did. God has punished Nawaz Sharif and showered honours on Vajpayee almost simultaneously. This was a terrific Natural justice.

India suffered Kargil. Each coffin of our bravest martyr was carried home with the thought that this was result of Pak mischief and hatred, unnecessary deaths came to both sides but it was inflicted on Indians. Nawaz's thirst for blood remained insatiable and when he should have been brooding over the events, he threatened India with "More Kargils". Nawaz forgot that even worms turn. India is a civilization of thousands of years. She has seen rise and fall of numerous mighty rulers, great wars, vanishing of civilizations. A wave of uncivilized invaders, looters, murderers and yet limped along with out losing her cultural heritage, her ethos and hope of good tomorrow. India has a dream, a vision to be a World leader in her own spiritual way.

While Indians are inspired by Mahatma Gandhi's ideals of retaining their own culture and enriching it further by good things and others. India has broad mind untainted with hatred and destruction. What we are facing in Kashmir and other parts of India, is a result of Pakistan's actions. For the last decade Pak rulers have encouraged blood spilling for their own people and others and now the author of "many Kargils" would be spending all time praying to God Almighty to spare his life and why not, his own life is dearest to him, his family and friends. Did he not realise that those youngmen whom he sent across the borders were also sons and brothers of someone. At least he should have spared some thought for his own men. But traders in death considered themselves as deathless, immortal, beyond the chastisement of cosmic law.

The new ruler Gen. Parvez Musharraf has taken over power. Past history of this man is replete with instances of betrayal. He is portrayed as selfish, back stabber and ambitious. However, as for India is concerned every Pak ruler, irrespective of his or her back ground, becomes a problem. Since they have mortgaged everything for illusion i.e. Kashmir. Any person who knows Kashmir and her people, would not have shed so much blood.Pak rulers should first read the Kashmir history beginning with "Rajatarangini" and ending with 1947 events.

Why white man scores over others is not that he is physically more stout or more brainy. But because before attempting anything, he thinks seriously and gathers nformation about the character of the people. History for him is not just one subject to be offered in Schools or colleges but a book of immense wisdom which prepares him for victory.

He learns lessons from history and also knows what happened to those who ignore history. Hitler ignored history otherwise Napoleon's Moscow defeat would have wisened him not to attack Russia. Nawaz Sharif's knowledge about Bhutto's action of promoting Zia-ul-Haq would have saved him from Parvez Musharraf. Anyone who ignores history comes to grief. It is mine conviction whether new Pak General learns history in any impartial way remains to be seen or like other rulers he may feel tempted to distort history and commence celebrating defeat as victory, humiliation as glory. Till that happens Indian rulers will watch with seriousness the fate of author of "many Kargils". But Indian Prime Minister was gracious enough to reveal Indians' sympathy for Nawaz Sharif, Indians are great and would not be happy to watch Nawaz Sharif going to Gallows.

Restraint best reaction to nuclear strike

By Wg Cdr (Retd) Sharad Dixit

The nuclear doctrine promulgated, once ratified by the new Government, would provide the basis for formulation of strategies to counter possible contingencies. These would necessarily depend on several inputs and would have to evolve progressively with the environment. Present war-waging capabilities in the nuclear context are rudimentary, but the threat is real. Dialogue between experts and policy-makers must, therefore, continue to cater for exigencies before development of the necessary nuke-related infrastructure.

Hopes of Indo-Pak tensions abating after the grant of safe passage to intruders in Kargil have not fructified. The politico-diplomatic war of words, the repeated violations of the Vienna Convention regarding the treatment of diplomatic personnel, the Atlantique incident and its repercussions, announcements about the Agni-II testing and the neutron bomb capability (by both sides) have all contributed to horizontal as well as vertical escalation, primed by the change of Government in Pakistan.

The resurgence of violence in Chechnya supported by hundreds of Pak-trained militants has drawn international attention to the problems of Islamic fundamentalism. Reports of volunteers from U. K. rushing to their aid have not helped either. This is of particular significance to India in view of statements attributed in the media to Osama Bin Laden.

The annual autumn exercise of sponsored infiltration into Kashmir has been vigorously pursued and the tempo can only increase. ISI activities in Assam, Bengal and other states have intensified. Factional differences, inflamed passions and political/administrative distraction in India during the elections and immediately thereafter provide an 'ideal field' for instigating violence.

The dilution of security cover as forces are deployed for Internal Security duties aggravates the problem. Trans-border military action then becomes a distinct possibility if either side perceives political/domestic compulsions, military necessity or a vulnerability to be exploited. Once started, such action could develop into a full-blown war.

The nature of such a war needs to be understood if the reasons for escalation are to be appreciated. The primary prediction is that neither side can afford to lose it. Further, when the countries are of disparate size/strength, the larger one must be seen to have inflicted significantly greater losses in terms of territory, material and manpower -- including an element of 'punishment' -- if it is to be perceived a winner. Rough parity would be interpreted as a loss (witness the Sino-Vietnamese conflict). India would thus have to be aggressive, its actions punitive, be they pre-emptive or retaliatory. Sustained aggression, however, invariably attracts higher penalties, necessitating commensurately greater attraction on the enemy -- and so the cycle progressess.

India has traditionally restricted itself to targeting the military. The objective of visible punishment would demand expansion of the spectrum to include elements of the infrastructure. It would also become necessary to accept as inevitable extra-military losses -- both own and enemy --- as casualties of war. A ruthless tri-service blitz will, therefore, have to be launched. Resource constraints, particularly in terms of specialist weapons systems, will determine the sustainability and the efficacy of such a campaign, as also its duration. A short conflict, unless decisive, would not be able to create the desired differential, while a longer one would be debilitating for both economies.

Pakistan in contrast, has always been proactive, particularly under military rule, with little compunction about civilian losses. It is less sensitive to ethical disapprobation. Jingoistic pressures are much greater, the public more volatile than in India. Its politico-military objectives would be accordingly tailored. It would aim for maximum escalation at the earliest, inflicting the highest possible attrition on India and then raising the nuclear bogey to invite international intervention before a pro-India differential can be established. Its visible losses could be downplayed as extra-statutory narco-finance would fund the proxy war, military and financial assistance would be forthcoming from fundamentalist states and information access would be controlled to conceal or deny any reverses.

A situation would thus exist where each belligerent would attempt to apply maximum conventional might, trying the other's tolerance thresholds. India's tolerance would predictably be higher as it is superior in terms of economy, industry, technology, size and numbers. She would, therefore, prefer a longer conventional conflict to one that could escalate to nuclear levels. First nuclear strike by India, of course, is precluded by the doctrine.

Let us then hypothesize that a beleaguered Pakistan, due to its own compulsions or driven by an unspecified logic, does cross the nuclear divide. It could attack a single target as a warning, multiple targets, or in the worst case, apply its entire arsenal pre-emptively. How should India react?

The first option is immediate retaliation. The quickest reaction could be achieved through the use of Ballistic Missiles (BMs), provided they are in the appropriate state of readiness. The flight time of a BM with a range of 500 Kms would be about six minutes. Longer-range missiles would take commensurate time. The nuclear exchange would thus be completed in a span of minutes. The problems would then multiply. But, how would we convince the world that India retaliated and did not initiate the escalation? It would be virtually impossible.

The few nations capable of real time monitoring could well obfuscate the issue to further their perceived political interests. Both (or either) adversaries could be dubbed rogue states and punished harshly by the international community defeating the purpose for which the war was started and negating national aspirations for the foreseeable future.

A second option is the protection of our arsenal at a lower state of preparedness while retaining the ability to apply it in a few hours, before world pressure towards restraint denies us a response. The issue of first strike could then be favourably resolved and culpability somewhat diminished. International repercussions nevertheless would be crippling and the losses would far outweigh the gains.

A third and perhaps the best option would be the immediate announcement of a unilaterial cease-fire. The voluntary exercise of nuclear restraint and a call to the world community to punish the perpetrator. We would thus avoid a trap similar to the one Pakistan dug for itself at Chhagai in May '98. We could demand immediate and total disarming of the adversary, reparations, aid and much more. The rider could be that if the world did not reach to our satisfaction. We would retain the right to act unilaterally, punitively, at a later date.

The foregoing is not meant to suggest that people or other assets are expendable, or that nukes are good or desirable, but merely that they are a reality. We have to pay the price for fifty years of dithering. If peace and development call for such sacrifices today, let us make them, for the stakes can only increase.

An immediate strategy, therefore, could be the 'establishment of as credible a deterrent as possible' within the time-span available, through all channels available to us. War if inevitable, must be willfully prosecuted, aiming to win. Concessions made under nuclear threat must be abjured, as the problem will then perpetuate itself. Losses would have to be borne, horrific though they would be. In the final analysis, however, it could be nuclear restraint that may provide the solution to the unending conflict. PTI Feature